Okabe Rintarou
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As for IAF squadron strength, that should recieve the most investment in our modernization and expansion drive. It would be much better to spend our increased CAPEX post-2035 on expanding the number of IAF squadrons beyond 42 to something like 60 and adding additional strategic bomber squadrons as part of our force mix, rather than building a large amphibious capability and foreign base network like China or USA.The way I see it is that as China becomes bolder year by year, India will have to take tough decisions and US would be very much be in favour of having a formal military angle to QUAD, if India signs a formal pact among members(who knows what will happen, threat of China is THAT MUCH), there would certainly be some contributions to be made by members in almost each domain including all 3 major domains naval, land and Air. In this context, I think some kind of expeditionary force albeit small can't be ruled out and that's where Marines come in our context.
I expect post 2040, our industrial and tech base to expand significantly and Budget for Armed forces be available in good amount to really be able to mass induct indigenous systems and finally days of chindi being gone. Thanks to our increased GDP, unless something unfortunate happens.
What do you think?? Or is this still a wishful thinking and we will still be compromising on even seemingly necessary capabilities.
What do you think of such low squadron strengths of IAF projected upto 2040. They will surely have more CAPEX and OPEX by 2030, magnitudes higher than what we have now according to forecasts by various agencies, in the fact that most of foreign fighters will be retired post 2030 doesn't this makes case for ORCA even stronger and dare I would say 300+ numbers of Tejas mk2, perphaps even a mk3 with 110 kn common engine of AMCA with reduced signature and other new tech. To me it looks like IAF is setting itself poorly for 2 front war when CHINA behemoth will be producing tons of j10, j series of copied flankers, j20, j31/35, vtol fighter jet, stealth bomber, various transport planes and perphaps even a new design 6th gen fighter.
At this stage, evn the thought of atleast defending borders seems to be a hyperbole.
Apart from that, we should spend our large CAPEX post-2030 on a space force rivaling that of the Americans. A humungous, persistent satellite array with VLWIR sensors is indispensable for forming an Indian Hypersonic Defence System. Similarly, we will need swarms of co-orbital satellites to protect our space assets as well as the capability to replace satellite losses in wartime. All of that will eat up a significant chunk of our CAPEX. So our funding priorities should be on IAF and Space Forces. Forgot, a strong focus on Cyber capabilities is needed as well. Navy, and Marines especially should only be funded to the extent needed for a comfortable control of IOR.
EDIT: Basically, India should focus on forming a military that is unbeatable in our region even by external military alliances like NATO. Rather than chasing after some ambition of a Global Force Projection capabiliity like the Americans or the Chinese.
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