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We may have pathological liars for neighbours. Ofcourse such simulation is common in the discourse among states, but when you lend credence to the speculation by others by consistently publishing figures inflated, unverifiable and un-verified allowable for enemy casualties in a bid to shore up your 'aid' in the 'war against terror', and suspiciously low figures for your own troops, then something's gone amiss, and cuzin, huntin' ain't good.
Doubt cast on Pakistan's battle claims
West Point Report; Taliban said to have vacated Waziristan
Peter Goodspeed, The National Post
Published: Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Banaras Khan, AFP, Getty Images
Taliban supporters in May protested Pakistan's military offensive in the Swat Valley.
While Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has claimed a military offensive in South Waziristan is over and successful, a new study published by the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., is far less enthusiastic.
It suggests there is little evidence of heavy fighting in the area because "it appears most militants fled in the face of the government advance."
The fact the Pakistan army telegraphed its intention to launch an offensive for almost four months before sending troops into South Waziristan on Oct. 17, allowed the bulk of the Pakistani Taliban to withdraw and disperse to neighbouring tribal areas, the study says.
The Pakistan government claims to have killed 589 Taliban terrorists during the offensive and says 79 of its troops were killed in action, but the study says it is difficult to confirm those claims.
"It was impossible for the media to independently confirm both the military and Taliban claims of casualties due to the lack of access to the conflict zone, disrupted lines of communication and the dislocation of almost all of the civilian population from the area," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, the security analyst who wrote the report.
Spokesmen for the Taliban insist the hardline Islamists executed a "tactical retreat" from their strongholds in South Waziristan. They also claim that while the Pakistan army occupies the major roads in South Waziristan, they remain entrenched in the surrounding forests and mountains.
Still, the report says the Taliban's retreat did not appear to be well organized since they left behind heavy weapons and even cooked food, suggesting they fled in a hurry.
"Lending credence to the TTP's [Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] claims about a tactical retreat, the government has so far failed to kill or arrest any senior TTP leaders," the study says .
"Even by accepting the military's claims of 589 Taliban fighters killed, it is clear that the majority of fighters -- numbering in the thousands -- were able to escape and will likely continue to pose a threat," Mr. Yusufzai said.
The study suggests Taliban fugitives and as many as 1,500 foreign fighters may have relocated to the Orakzai Agency tribal area to the north. This is where Hakimullah Mehsud used to command a wing of the TTP before he took control of the organization in South Waziristan after the group's founder, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed by a U.S. drone last August.
The Pakistan Taliban have retreated, replicating tactics used by the Afghan Taliban, the study says. Now, they can be expected to employ guerrilla tactics to harass advancing troops and attack remote outposts.
The Taliban have also retaliated by carrying out suicide bombings and other attacks in Pakistan's urban centres.
For its part, Pakistan's military says it is concentrating on clearing militants from captured territory in South Waziristan and hopes to restore public services in the region in time to allow local tribespeople to return to their homes in April.
But Mr. Yusufzai predicts the region could slide into a prolonged insurgency and counter-insurgency.
"The struggle is far from over," Mr. Yusufzai said. "The TTP has proved through its unrelenting campaign of terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities that its capabilities have not been fully degraded.
"Its success in hitting high-security military targets through complex suicide assaults proves that it can continue to launch operations," he said.
Doubt cast on Pakistan's battle claims
Doubt cast on Pakistan's battle claims
West Point Report; Taliban said to have vacated Waziristan
Peter Goodspeed, The National Post
Published: Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Banaras Khan, AFP, Getty Images
Taliban supporters in May protested Pakistan's military offensive in the Swat Valley.
While Pakistan's Prime Minister, Yousuf Raza Gilani, has claimed a military offensive in South Waziristan is over and successful, a new study published by the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., is far less enthusiastic.
It suggests there is little evidence of heavy fighting in the area because "it appears most militants fled in the face of the government advance."
The fact the Pakistan army telegraphed its intention to launch an offensive for almost four months before sending troops into South Waziristan on Oct. 17, allowed the bulk of the Pakistani Taliban to withdraw and disperse to neighbouring tribal areas, the study says.
The Pakistan government claims to have killed 589 Taliban terrorists during the offensive and says 79 of its troops were killed in action, but the study says it is difficult to confirm those claims.
"It was impossible for the media to independently confirm both the military and Taliban claims of casualties due to the lack of access to the conflict zone, disrupted lines of communication and the dislocation of almost all of the civilian population from the area," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, the security analyst who wrote the report.
Spokesmen for the Taliban insist the hardline Islamists executed a "tactical retreat" from their strongholds in South Waziristan. They also claim that while the Pakistan army occupies the major roads in South Waziristan, they remain entrenched in the surrounding forests and mountains.
Still, the report says the Taliban's retreat did not appear to be well organized since they left behind heavy weapons and even cooked food, suggesting they fled in a hurry.
"Lending credence to the TTP's [Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan] claims about a tactical retreat, the government has so far failed to kill or arrest any senior TTP leaders," the study says .
"Even by accepting the military's claims of 589 Taliban fighters killed, it is clear that the majority of fighters -- numbering in the thousands -- were able to escape and will likely continue to pose a threat," Mr. Yusufzai said.
The study suggests Taliban fugitives and as many as 1,500 foreign fighters may have relocated to the Orakzai Agency tribal area to the north. This is where Hakimullah Mehsud used to command a wing of the TTP before he took control of the organization in South Waziristan after the group's founder, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed by a U.S. drone last August.
The Pakistan Taliban have retreated, replicating tactics used by the Afghan Taliban, the study says. Now, they can be expected to employ guerrilla tactics to harass advancing troops and attack remote outposts.
The Taliban have also retaliated by carrying out suicide bombings and other attacks in Pakistan's urban centres.
For its part, Pakistan's military says it is concentrating on clearing militants from captured territory in South Waziristan and hopes to restore public services in the region in time to allow local tribespeople to return to their homes in April.
But Mr. Yusufzai predicts the region could slide into a prolonged insurgency and counter-insurgency.
"The struggle is far from over," Mr. Yusufzai said. "The TTP has proved through its unrelenting campaign of terrorist attacks in Pakistani cities that its capabilities have not been fully degraded.
"Its success in hitting high-security military targets through complex suicide assaults proves that it can continue to launch operations," he said.
Doubt cast on Pakistan's battle claims