Does nuclear WMD technology eventually plateau out ??

[mattster]

I have wondered about this: Does nuclear weapon technology eventually reach a saturation point, where there is not much more you can do in terms of weaponization and yield, etc ??

The implication of this is that eventually all the nuclear weapon states would have similar capabilities, and there is nothing more you can do to improve your arsenal, or even if there is.....its very minor advances.

If that is the case, then eventually all the nuclear weapons states would reach a level of parity in terms of nuke capability provided they have proven delivery systems.

One would assume that the US and Russia, France, GB, and maybe China are already there. This means that India could also be there in another 10 years after their delivery systems are perfected ??

 

[sweethoneyall4u]

I think they might not do anymore tests but keep upgrading and updating new technologies into it for example MIRV. The basic weapon is the same but the enhancement is made in terms of pinpoint accuracy and incorporating technologies which can blind enemy defenses and make sure the work:dk: is done.

 

[Yusuf]

No matter what the advances, it serves as a deterrence for any other nation to think about misadventure.

 

[mattster]

What i was alluding to with this thread - is that the 5 UNSC states now have a strong deterrent against any hostile action against them, and the muscle to threaten weaker nations with conventional wars knowing full well that these countries can only take defensive action against them, and that the attacked country would never contemplate offensive action because of the nuke threat.

But if you look 30 years into the future....by then India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, North Korea, possibly Brazil and maybe even Japan could well have achieved parity with the UNSC members in terms of nuke technology.

This completely changes the game: Imagine if in 20 years India has a robust SLBM based ICBMs with MIRV capability. Then if the Chinese keep intruding into our borders; India would not simply have to tell its diplomats to lie to the press and deny it - it may actually comtemplate taking offensive action in a conventional war against the Chinese without worrying about the nuclear threat.

Even if China launched a conventional border against India today.....the most India could do was defend its borders - it could not take offensive action against the Chinese because of the weak or non-existent Indian deterrent against a Chinese nuclear threat.

But if its true, that the very nature of nuke technology is that it has already reached a plateau; then that massive strategic military advantage that the "Big 5" currently have will dissipate over the next 2 or 3 decades as more countries join the club.

Then you basically have a "mexican standoff" and the only thing that can change that game is BMD....if it works.