Detective Pennington
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I was thinking about practical means to denuclearize Pakistan. I was wondering if it would be feasible via international sanctions from the US and NATO.
Remember that the US placed sanctions on Pakistan after the nuclear test and only lifted them due to the war on terror. Finding Bin Laden in Pakistan and continued support for the Taliban, as well as general instability/number of Jihadist groups has probably made Washington very nervous about Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs.
Already there are plans to secure the nuclear weapons if anything goes wrong, an agreement that Beijing is okay with apparently: '
However, this centers on the idea of giving Pakistan back their nukes after they are secured. I was wondering if there was a possibility of the US getting rid of Pakistan's nukes entirely and not giving them back?
It would probably go something like this:
1. Form an international coalition of NATO (like the UK and France) and Regional (India and Afghanistan) allies to intervene just in case an emergency situation happens and military intervention is required.
2. Communicate to Beijing that if the coalition has to go in, that they will not be returning the nukes to Pakistan but instead be destroying everything, and that it's in their interest to be with us rather than against us, as then we could protect the CPEC instead of destroying it.
After the worst case scenarios are planned for, you can then begin diplomacy:
1. US would offer incentives, such as increased foreign aid, assistance with cracking down on militants, holding India accountable for anything India does in Balochistan or Kashmir etc. Offer to talk to India to see if India would also agree to denuclearize (they won't), and offer to talk to China if India agrees to denuclearize if Pakistan and China also do.
2. If incentives fail, then you can proceed to light sanctions, such as banning some imports and exports, and cut off all US foreign aid.
3. If this fails, move to heavy sanctions. Any country that does business with Pakistan, cannot do business with the United States, including buying any computer that has windows or mac, or any smartphone that has android or IOS, or use any social media platform like twitter or instagram or facebook etc. Even China will have to comply with these sanctions. Also remove Pakistan's status as a major non-NATO ally.
4. If even the heavy sanctions fail, move to indirect warfare. Meaning no nation that even gives foreign aid to Pakistan, can do any business with the US. Also, send in the US navy to blockade ports, and send the US airforce to bases in Afghanistan and maybe to India to block NGO and humanitarian aid ships from flying in to deliver relief.
If that happens, Pakistan will basically turn into worse than North Korea. I highly doubt the Balochi and Sindhi people will be willing to eat grass and leaves just for Pakistan to keep their bombs, or the TTP for that matter, and an internal civil war will start. This will either force them to give up their nukes, or some rebel group will take over a base housing nuclear weapons, providing and excuse for a military operation to destroy all of their nuclear facilities via airstrikes and ground invasion.
Once Pakistan is denuclearized, it will be much safer to fully support Balochistan and Sindhudesh rebels, and for India to take back POK and for Afghanistan to take back all of the Pashtun lands east of the Durand Line. At that point, Pakistan will have been reduced to the Punjab province, landlocked between hostile neighbors, and China will have no access to the Arabian sea.
How feasible do you think this is? Do you think the US will openly support a denuclearized Pakistan now that they no longer need them for help with Afghanistan? Or is there some other value to Pakistani nukes to Washington?
Remember that the US placed sanctions on Pakistan after the nuclear test and only lifted them due to the war on terror. Finding Bin Laden in Pakistan and continued support for the Taliban, as well as general instability/number of Jihadist groups has probably made Washington very nervous about Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs.
Already there are plans to secure the nuclear weapons if anything goes wrong, an agreement that Beijing is okay with apparently: '
Global Security Newswire
www.nti.org
However, this centers on the idea of giving Pakistan back their nukes after they are secured. I was wondering if there was a possibility of the US getting rid of Pakistan's nukes entirely and not giving them back?
It would probably go something like this:
1. Form an international coalition of NATO (like the UK and France) and Regional (India and Afghanistan) allies to intervene just in case an emergency situation happens and military intervention is required.
2. Communicate to Beijing that if the coalition has to go in, that they will not be returning the nukes to Pakistan but instead be destroying everything, and that it's in their interest to be with us rather than against us, as then we could protect the CPEC instead of destroying it.
After the worst case scenarios are planned for, you can then begin diplomacy:
1. US would offer incentives, such as increased foreign aid, assistance with cracking down on militants, holding India accountable for anything India does in Balochistan or Kashmir etc. Offer to talk to India to see if India would also agree to denuclearize (they won't), and offer to talk to China if India agrees to denuclearize if Pakistan and China also do.
2. If incentives fail, then you can proceed to light sanctions, such as banning some imports and exports, and cut off all US foreign aid.
3. If this fails, move to heavy sanctions. Any country that does business with Pakistan, cannot do business with the United States, including buying any computer that has windows or mac, or any smartphone that has android or IOS, or use any social media platform like twitter or instagram or facebook etc. Even China will have to comply with these sanctions. Also remove Pakistan's status as a major non-NATO ally.
4. If even the heavy sanctions fail, move to indirect warfare. Meaning no nation that even gives foreign aid to Pakistan, can do any business with the US. Also, send in the US navy to blockade ports, and send the US airforce to bases in Afghanistan and maybe to India to block NGO and humanitarian aid ships from flying in to deliver relief.
If that happens, Pakistan will basically turn into worse than North Korea. I highly doubt the Balochi and Sindhi people will be willing to eat grass and leaves just for Pakistan to keep their bombs, or the TTP for that matter, and an internal civil war will start. This will either force them to give up their nukes, or some rebel group will take over a base housing nuclear weapons, providing and excuse for a military operation to destroy all of their nuclear facilities via airstrikes and ground invasion.
Once Pakistan is denuclearized, it will be much safer to fully support Balochistan and Sindhudesh rebels, and for India to take back POK and for Afghanistan to take back all of the Pashtun lands east of the Durand Line. At that point, Pakistan will have been reduced to the Punjab province, landlocked between hostile neighbors, and China will have no access to the Arabian sea.
How feasible do you think this is? Do you think the US will openly support a denuclearized Pakistan now that they no longer need them for help with Afghanistan? Or is there some other value to Pakistani nukes to Washington?