Demand for change rocks Arab world

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Demand for change rocks Arab world



Protests continue to shake the Middle East and North Africa as thousands rally against autocratic regimes that have held power for years, if not decades. The wave of unrest that began in Tunisia in December continues sparking demonstrations in that country, as well as Gaza, Yemen and Egypt, where the anti-government protests are the largest and most serious in 30 years


Protesters across the Middle East and North Africa have taken to the streets in mass rallies, demanding an end to years of repression by autocratic leaders and calling for serious governmental shake-ups.

Top reformist to return to Egypt, join protesters
Tens of thousands of people have participated over the last three days in Egypt's largest and most serious anti-government protests in three decades. Momentum behind the movement is expected to grow further with the return to the country of prominent dissident Mohamed ElBaradei, seen as a key challenger to longtime president Hosni Mubarak.

Protests in Egypt have led to clashes with security forces, leaving at least six people dead and hundreds wounded. Nearly 1,000 people are known to have been detained so far.

Thousands march in anti-Abbas protests in Gaza
Thousands of Hamas-led demonstrators meanwhile marched in the Gaza Strip in protest of leaked documents that allegedly show Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas secretly collaborated with Israel and the United States, and made far-reaching concessions on Jerusalem and the fate of Palestinian refugees.

Tunisians rally as country awaits new cabinet
In Tunisia, protesters rallied for a fifth day outside the prime minister's offices, calling for a clean break with the old regime. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in the Arab world's first popular revolt in recent history, but members of his government still hold leadership posts in the country.

Thousands of Yemenis call on president to quit
The wave of protest started in Tunisia last month has also swept Yemen, where thousands demanded longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down. Similar demonstrations have also been held in Algeria, where five days of violent protests against high prices left five people dead and more than 800 injured in early January, as well as Jordan, Mauritania, Oman and Sudan.
 

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Bahrain activists protest for political reform

By Ben Birnbaum

The Washington Times

5:48 p.m., Monday, February 14, 2011


Seizing momentum from popular revolt in Egypt and Tunisia and Arab uprisings elsewhere, opposition activists in Bahrain staged their own "Day of Rage" on Monday as thousands of protesters took to the streets to demand greater political reform.

Security forces in the Persian Gulf island nation, home to the U.S. Navy's fifth fleet, fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the protesters. A 27-year-old male demonstrator was rushed to the hospital, with witnesses claiming that he was killed by live ammunition.

In an official statement, the Bahraini interior minister "extended sincere condolences to the family" of the dead protester and "ordered a probe into the incident," saying that "the party involved in the incident will be referred to the Criminal Court should the investigation reveal that the use of the weapon was legally unjustified."

The day of protests comes roughly 10 years to the day after Bahrainis overwhelmingly approved the National Action Charter, an agenda of political reform introduced by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa.

The king has used the occasion to order the payment payment of 1,000 dinar — roughly $2,700 — to every Bahraini family. The move by the Sunni-dominated government, however, is unlikely to appease the country's Shiite majority — nearly seventy percent of Bahrainis — which has long demanded a greater voice in Bahraini affairs.
Bahraini demonstrators run from tear gas on Monday as riot police disperse a protest in the village of Duraz, Bahrain, outside the capital of Manama. Demonstrations broke out nationwide in response to calls on social media sites for major anti-government protests and were dispersed by riot police firing tear gas and chasing demonstrators. (Associated Press)Bahraini demonstrators run from tear gas on Monday as riot police disperse a protest in the village of Duraz, Bahrain, outside the capital of Manama. Demonstrations broke out nationwide in response to calls on social media sites for major anti-government protests and were dispersed by riot police firing tear gas and chasing demonstrators. (Associated Press)

Abdul-Jalil Khalil, head of the Shiite-dominated Wefaq bloc in parliamant, told The Washington Times that "nobody wants to overthrow the king or the government."

"This is not Egypt," he said. "Our demands are different. Everybody is just asking for political reform."

Wefaq won a plurarality in Bahrain's October 2010 elections, earning 18 of 40 seats in the Council of Representatives. But its power is balanced out by a coequal legislative chamber, the Shura Council, whose members are — like the cabinet — appointed by the king, which opposition leaders say violates the intent of the National Action Charter.

Mr. Khalil met with the king on Saturday as part of delegation of members from both chambers.

"The king was talking about the National Charter era, and his views on the progress of reform," one of the other participants, first vice-chairman Khalil Al-Marzooq, told The Washington Times. "He said, 'we started reform prior to anyone in this region and we have reached a good level of democracy.'"

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Arab World Quakes
Egypt has given the Arab world a feeling of freedom from their tightly controlled Shiekdoms, dictatorships and quasi democracies.

Every Arab wants a place in the sun.

And now the Sectarian divides add to the kaleidoscope!
 

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Hariri party to strongly oppose replacement Lebanese cabinet

Don Duncan

Last Updated: Feb 15, 2011

BEIRUT // The former Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, announced yesterday that his political party would stand in strong opposition to the cabinet that would replace the government he led until it was toppled on January 25.

"Those who are in the leadership position now used their weapons to get there," said Mr Hariri, referring to the Hizbollah-led political alliance that now dominates Lebanese politics. "So good for them. Congratulations on the stolen position."

He spoke to an estimated 6,000 people at a rally organised in Beirut to commemorate the sixth anniversary of the assassination of his father, the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.

"I won't pray for [Rafiq Hariri] to come back," said Aya Halabi, 19, "because he won't, but I hope that we have some leaders soon that have 50 per cent of what he had."

Since rumours and leaks surfaced months ago suggesting that members of Hizbollah would be indicted by the international tribunal investigating the Hariri murder, the Shiite militia has been adamant to discredit the tribunal. When Saad Hariri refused to bend to Hizbollah's demands, the party and its allies pulled their members from the cabinet, causing the government to collapse.

"We have always been moderate but there is no moderation between murder and justice and between truth and lies," Mr Hariri said at the rally. "Today we come into the position of opposition where we ask for commitment to the constitution, commitment to the tribunal, commitment to freedom of expression, without the use of weapons to threaten."

Analysts say a Hizbollah-led government will isolate Lebanon on the international stage but western countries are so far adopting a wait-and-see attitude. France, a key Saad Hariri ally, has delayed a supply of rockets to Lebanon until the new government is firmly established, said a report on Thursday in Al Hayat, a pan-Arab daily. Meanwhile, the United States, which has provided Lebanon with millions of dollars in military aid since 2006, is seeing increased domestic opposition to its aid policy towards Lebanon.

"Even now, when the Lebanese government has been overthrown, the United States has still failed to indicate to cut off assistance to a proxy government for Iran, Syria and Hizbollah," Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, chairwoman of the House foreign affairs committee, said last week.

The prime minister-designate, Najib Miqati, has made rebuilding a government where all major political parties are represented a priority. But Mr Hariri and his coalition said they would oppose the new government unless Mr Miqati issued a written commitment backing the work of the tribunal.

With the chances of Mr Hariri and his coalition participation in the new government unlikely, Mr Miqkati must proceed with his other option: to form a 24-member cabinet composed of members of the March 8 alliance, together with independents and technocrats. But this may be no easy task.

"This road we are taking now is similar to the road the Egyptians took toward freedom and democracy," said Mr Hariri at the end of his speech, calling on his followers to stage a popular uprising against the new government next month on the sixth anniversary of the Cedar Revolution, the demonstrations triggered by the Hariri assassination that eventually led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country and a government more independent of Syrian influence.

"Freedom is going to make us gather again on March 14, 2011 and again we say no - no to defrauding the will of the electorate, no to armed internal patronage, no to fear, no to stealing, no to murder and no to oppression."

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Lebanon Quakes
The the Egyptian fever seems to have caused turmoil in the faction ridden Lebanon.
 

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Iran Lawmakers Want Opposition Leaders Killed

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR
Published: February 15, 2011


President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran on Tuesday dismissed opposition attempts to revive antigovernment street protests as certain to fail, while members of the Iranian Parliament clamored for the two most prominent leaders of the protest movement to be hanged.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's statements, reported by Agence France-Presse, came a day after tens of thousands poured onto the streets across Iran despite a heavy police presence, in the largest antigovernment protests in more than a year.

The government on Tuesday continued to try to squelch reports about the protests, arresting or sequestering critics and revoking the working credentials of about a dozen foreign correspondents who the day before had been ordered not to report.

Opposition supporters were elated about the demonstrations on Monday, saying they felt people's willingness to come out despite beatings by the police proved that the antigovernment Green movement was still alive after 20 months of brutal government suppression.

"The friends I talked to in Iran were so happy that people had shown up after months of nothing going on," said Sadra M. Shahab, who helped spread the word about the demonstrations from overseas.

There were reports that at least two people died in the protests.

According to the A.F.P. report, Mr. Ahmadinejad, in a live interview on state television, pursued the government line that such demonstrations were foreign attempts to undermine a great nation.

The clashes over the protests — ostensibly called to support those in Egypt and Tunisia who brought down their leaders — undercut the Iranian government's attempts to portray the Arab uprisings as the fulfillment of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"It is evident and clear that the Iranian nation has enemies because it is a country that wants to shine and achieve its peak," the president said. He acknowledged there was animosity against the government, but said the protesters "will not achieve their goals," the news agency reported.

The Iranian leader, whose disputed election in June 2009 spawned the protest movement, criticized domestic and foreign opponents and said those who "design and plan these things" will see "the dirt fall on their faces."

Parliament members were more vociferous, scrambling to their feet in the chamber and demanding that prominent opposition leaders — Mir Hussein Moussavi, Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammed Khatami — be prosecuted.

At one point their demands descended into chanting against Mr. Karroubi, a former Parliament speaker, and Mr. Moussavi. Both men ran against Mr. Ahmadinejad in the last election. "Moussavi, Karroubi should be hanged!" the members shouted in unison.

The protesters, by chanting against the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were demanding that the entire government system should go. In doing so, they forged rare unity between Mr. Ahmadinejad and Parliament, which have been at odds over domestic policy.

Of the 290 Parliament members, 222 signed a statement Tuesday demanding that the government prosecute Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karroubi, according to IRNA, the state-run news agency. It was at least the third time that the two men have been threatened publicly with prosecution, but the government has not pursued trials, perhaps because such an action could fuel new demonstrations.

"They would like to provide an atmosphere for the government to take harder action against the opposition leaders," said Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, an exiled former member of Parliament now at the University of Massachusetts, Boston. "But I do not think they could do anything like execute the leaders — even if they arrested them it would motivate a new round of the uprising."

Since the eve of the protests on Monday, Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karroubi have been kept under house arrest with all communication severed, including most family visits. Pro-government demonstrators surrounded Mr. Karroubi's house on Tuesday, according to opposition Web sites.

President Obama, speaking at a Washington news conference on Tuesday, expressed support for the courage of the Iranian demonstrators and criticized the response of the government in Tehran. The leadership of the Islamic republic has been hailing the demonstrations in the Arab world, saying they show the triumph of popular support for Islam, even though Islamists had a low profile in both the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings.

"I find it ironic that you've got the Iranian regime pretending to celebrate what happened in Egypt," Mr. Obama said, "when in fact they have acted in direct contrast to what happened in Egypt by gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully in Iran."

Mr. Obama said real change was not going to happen because the government went around "killing innocents."

"It's going to happen because people come together and apply moral force to a situation," the president said.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton also denounced Iran in a speech on Internet freedom, criticizing its government for using the Web to hunt down critics.

Reports of the number of people arrested in Iran varied, with the official number put at 150 and the opposition's estimates at 1,500. The official media paid little attention to the protests.

The two dead protesters were identified Tuesday as Saane Zhaleh, a Kurdish student at Tehran Art University, and Mohammad Mokhtari, 22, a student at Islamic Azad University in Shahrood.

The government and the opposition issued conflicting accounts of Mr. Zhaleh's background. The authorities said Mr. Zhaleh was a Basij, one of the student vigilantes on many campuses, who was shot by a government opponent. Opposition accounts said plainclothes security officers roaming the streets beat him to death.

To support their claim, opposition groups released what it said was a picture of Mr. Zhaleh visiting a prominent dissident cleric, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who died in late 2009.

Alan Cowell reported from Paris, and Artin Afkhami from Washington.
Iran in Turmoil
There were reports of serious demonstration against the Iran Govt and the Ayotollahs.

Rather odd that they openly want the opposition leaders to be killed!

Scary!!
 

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What Is the Muslim Brotherhood, and Will It Take Over Egypt?

Fri Feb. 11, 2011 3:00 AM PST

As the revolutionary upsurge in Egypt builds toward its conclusion, some of the key questions involve the role of the Muslim Brotherhood—the Islamic movement that has been characterized as anything from a benign prodemocracy force to a terrorist-inclined radical group with designs on establishing a global Caliphate.

What, exactly, is the Brotherhood? How strong is it inside Egypt? If the regime falls, will the Brotherhood take over, or is Egypt too modern, too secular, and too diverse to tolerate an Islamist-dominated government? And finally, if the Brothers did seize power, either in the streets or through elections, what kind of rulers might they be? To answer these questions, we need some grounding in history.

Teachers, Players, Assassins, Spies

The group known formally as the Society of Muslim Brothers was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, who from the very start promoted the slogan: "The Koran is our constitution." Banna, a teacher, described this as "a Salafiyya message," meaning that the Brothers intended to restore Islam to the alleged purity of its earliest days. They adhered to an ultra-orthodox view of Islam, and in the 1930s Banna established the Secret Apparatus, an underground intelligence and paramilitary arm with a terrorist wing. The Brotherhood had enormous power behind the scenes in monarchical Egypt, playing politics at the highest level, often in league with King Farouk against his political opponents, including the left, the communists, and the nationalist Wafd Party. In 1937, at Farouk's coronation, the Brotherhood—in Arabic, the Ikhwan—was enlisted to provide "order and security."

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For the next five decades, the Muslim Brotherhood would serve as a battering ram against nationalists and communists. Despite the Brothers' Islam-based anti-imperialism, the group often ended up making common cause with the colonial British. It functioned as an intelligence agency, infiltrating left-wing and nationalist groups. But it was also fiercely independent, at times clashing violently with the ruling authorities. On several occasions, Ikhwan assassins murdered top Egyptian officials, including Prime Minister Mahmoud Fahmi al-Nuqrashi in 1948. (Brotherhood founder Banna was assassinated by agents of the regime just weeks later).

Revolution, Terrorism, and American Friends

In the 1950s, the Brothers initially coexisted with the revolutionary regime of Gamal Abdel Nasser, who toppled the king in 1952. Gradually, however, Nasser sidelined the group, and by 1954 Nasser and the Brotherhood were at war. Reverting to its terrorism days, the Brothers twice tried to assassinate Nasser. The Brotherhood's vicious anti-Nasserism synced up conveniently with British and then American hatred for Nasser, and there's evidence that London spies may have collaborated with the Brotherhood against Nasser.

By then, the group's chief international organizer and best-known official was Said Ramadan, the son-in-law of Hassan al-Banna. Ramadan had come to the attention of both the CIA and MI-6, the British intelligence service. In researching my book, Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam, I came across an unusual photograph that showed Ramadan with President Eisenhower in the Oval Office. By then, or soon after, Ramadan had likely been recruited as a CIA agent. President Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Oval Office with a group of Muslim delegates, 1953. Said Ramadan is second from the right.President Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Oval Office with a group of Muslim delegates, 1953. Said Ramadan is second from the right.Wall Street Journal reporter Ian Johnson has since documented the close ties between Ramadan and various Western intelligence services in his book, A Mosque in Munich. In a recent article in the New York Review of Books, Johnson writes: "By the end of the decade, the CIA was overtly backing Ramadan." On the run from Nasser, Ramadan—a peripatetic traveler who'd been the chief organizer of the Muslim Brotherhood's chapters in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, and Pakistan—settled in Geneva, Switzerland, where he established an Islamic Center that for a quarter-century would serve as a hub for the Brotherhood's worldwide efforts.

"He used to come to Saudi Arabia for money"

From its early days, the Brotherhood was financed generously by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which appreciated its ultra-conservative politics and its virulent hatred of Arab communists. Hermann Eilts, who served as US ambassador to both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, told me that he once encountered Hassan al-Banna in the offices of the Saudi deputy minister of finance in 1948. "He used to come to Saudi Arabia for money," Eilts said.

The relationship between the Brotherhood and the House of Saud was always tense. Though the royal family bankrolled Ramadan and the Ikhwan, they never allowed the organization to set up a chapter in Saudi Arabia. For their part, the Muslim Brotherhood chafed under Saudi tutelage and probably harbored ideas about toppling the royals, but the Saudi intelligence service kept close watch on them. Martha Kessler, a former CIA officer who has studied the Brotherhood, told me: "The Egyptian Brothers in Saudi Arabia were [far] removed from any sense of loyalty to the House of Saud."

Does Egypt Have the Brotherhood to Thank for Mubarak?

Guided by Kamal Adham, the head of Saudi Arabia's intelligence service, Anwar Sadat—who'd been a member of the Brotherhood in the 1940s—reintroduced the Ikhwan to Egypt. At the time, Sadat had no political base, and he wanted to undermine the influence of the Nasserites and the communists. To that end, he calculatedly unleashed the power of right-wing political Islam. The Brotherhood's youth wing, often using physical force to intimidate its opponents, helped Sadat recapture ideological control of Egypt's universities. The Brotherhood also took the reins of Egypt's professional societies—doctors', engineers', and lawyers' groups. But because Sadat did not formally allow the Ikhwan to set up a political party, it fragmented into various components, some of which—inspired by Sayyid Qutb, a violent Salafi theoretician who was hanged by Nasser—turned to nihilist violence. One of these offshoots murdered Sadat in 1981, and then Vice President Mubarak took over.

For Mubarak, the Brotherhood served primarily one purpose: To justify Egypt's unending state of emergency. Like clockwork, Mubarak would tell his critics, foreign and domestic: It's me or the Brotherhood. Though formally banned in Egypt, the organization has been by turns tolerated and repressed—its members arrested, then released, then arrested again.

Where's the US Been in All of This?

Throughout the Mubarak era, the United States has had a contradictory, uncertain policy toward the Muslim Brotherhood. Robert Pelletreau, who served as ambassador to Egypt from 1991 to 1993, told me in an interview several years ago that he sought to open a dialogue with the group during his tenure in Cairo, and when Mubarak visited Washington, Pelletreau asked then-Secretary of State Warren Christopher to raise the issue with the Egyptian leader. "I'll never forget what happened next," he told me. "Mubarak sat up sharply, rigidly. 'These people killed my predecessor!' Then he raised this huge fist, and he slammed it down on the table hard, and everything on the table jumped and rattled. Bang! 'When they come out, we have to hit them.'" Edward Walker, who succeeded Pelletreau as US envoy in Cairo, was far more skeptical about dialogue with the Brotherhood, and for the most part, he supported Mubarak's efforts to suppress it. "I can't count the number of times Mubarak yelled at me about how the British were giving the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists safe haven," Walker told me in 2005.

Since then, there's been little or no official contact between the US and the Muslim Brotherhood (though a few years ago, the Bush administration convened a series of meetings to discuss whether or not to engage them). The Obama administration has walked a fine line, too, signaling a willingness to make sure that the Brotherhood is included in any negotiations with the Egyptian military, while declaring that there have been no direct contacts between US officials and the Brothers. Obama administration officials have also expressed concern about the possibility that the group could come out on top once the dust settles in Cairo.

What is Muslim Brotherhood
A commentary on the Muslim Brotherhood and its clout.
 

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Changed by the system"?

By the 1990s, despite the off-again, on-again repression by Mubarak's regime, the Brotherhood had completed what many observers say was a transformation. Step by step, its leadership renounced its violent past, engaged in politics, and tried to reinvent itself as a collection of community organizers who operated clinics and food banks, building a network of Islamic banks and companies. Writing last week in Foreign Affairs, Carrie Rosefsky Wickham noted: "Although the Brotherhood entered the political system in order to change it, it ended up being changed by the system." In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood won 88 seats—20 percent of the Parliament—and probably could have won even more had it run more candidates.

All of a sudden, the Brothers had emerged as Egypt's most potent opposition force. Though they still faced the wrath of the secret police—and in last year's parliamentary elections, the game was so rigged that the Brotherhood virtually opted out—they became vocal supporters of liberalizing Egypt's calcified system, and it made common cause with other pro-democracy groups.

Nathan Brown, a political science professor at George Washington University and an expert on political Islam, is optimistic that the Brotherhood has evolved from its fundamentalist roots: "Their agenda is to make Egypt better," he told Salon recently. "And their conception of what's good and bad has a religious basis. So that means increasing religious observance, religious knowledge. It also means probably drawing more heavily on the Islamic legal heritage for Egypt's laws. They don't want to necessarily completely convert Egypt into a traditional Islamic legal system. But if the Parliament's going to pass a law, they want it to be consistent with Islamic law." No doubt many officials and members of the Muslim Brotherhood would endorse this characterization.

But it's also fair to ask if Brown's interpretation is too charitable. In 2007, the Brotherhood released a draft political program that included several very troubling proposals, including the idea that Egypt's government be overseen by an unelected council of Islamic scholars who would measure the country's laws against the Koran and sharia to make sure governance would "conform to Islamic law." Since then, various Muslim Brotherhood officials have also made conflicting statements about anything from the role of women to the treatment of non-Muslim minorities.

In the end, there's no getting around the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood is, if not an anachronism, a profoundly reactionary force. Its views on marriage, the family, homosexuality, and the like are distasteful to most Western minds and many Egyptian ones. And it harbors a strong current of overt anti-Semitism, along with a penchant for conspiracy theories. Despite Egypt's drift toward a more conservative Islamic outlook since the 1970s—which paralleled similar trends across the Muslim world—the Egyptian people, especially the middle class, may in the end not be receptive to the Brotherhood's message.

It's also worth remembering that when the Egyptian uprising began in January, the Muslim Brotherhood was not among the leaders. At the forefront of the movement were young Egyptians, including those organized around a popular Facebook page memorializing the murder of a young man named Khaled Said in Alexandria. They were joined by a panoply of secular, socialist, Nasserite, and pro-democracy groups, and eventually by Mohammad ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Nearly all of the movement has been relentlessly secular, though it admittedly gained a great deal of momentum when the Muslim Brotherhood—which had initially held back—threw its weight behind the protests.

So Could They Take Over Egypt?

Because the Muslim Brotherhood is still a secretive, cell-based organization, and because it operates mostly underground, there are no reliable estimates either of its strength or its potential electoral base. Analysts have placed its membership as low as 100,000 nationwide and as high as a million or more. Similarly, some experts say that in a free and fair election the Brothers would win as little as 10 percent of the vote or as much as 20 to 40 percent—and their share will probably be higher the sooner the election is held, since they are by far the best-organized force at the moment.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, former CIA analyst Daniel Byman notes that whatever its numbers, the Brotherhood's potential role is not to be discounted. "Most Egyptians are not members of the Brotherhood, but the group probably represents a healthy plurality of the country, and its strength goes beyond its popularity," writes Byman. "The Brotherhood is highly organized and has street power, enabling it to out-organize or intimidate its weak potential rivals. In parts of the Middle East where relatively free elections have been held, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip, this mix of popularity and superior organization has served Islamist parties well."

What Does This Mean for US Foreign Policy?

Whatever its ultimate political beliefs, there are several things that the Muslim Brotherhood is not: It is not Al Qaeda or the Taliban. It is a conservative, even ultra-orthodox Islamist group, but it's irresponsible to compare it to the terrorist groups and armed insurgencies that have preoccupied American foreign policy since 2001. Nor is the Brotherhood the Egyptian equivalent of the Islamic force that seized power in Iran in 1979. For one thing, political conditions are much different; for another, the Brotherhood lacks the network of highly politicized clerics that helped Ayatollah Khomeini succeed in 1979. The group itself is almost entirely made up of laymen, often highly educated, and scholars of Islamic law, not members of the clergy.

To the extent that the Muslim Brotherhood's power in Egypt grows, it is certain to infuse the country with a stronger strain of anti-American and anti-Israel politics. Officially, the Brotherhood has proclaimed that it will abrogate or shelve the Egypt-Israel peace treaty signed in 1978, although in practice doing so might be difficult. It's also likely to align Egypt more closely with other Islamist groups in the Arab world, especially Hamas, which began as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. That would be part and parcel of a growing anti-American trend throughout the region, which has been picking up steam since the US invasion of Iraq and the American refusal to challenge Israel's stonewalling of a Palestinian state. If after Mubarak Egypt does indeed move away from the United States, it will only be joining Turkey, Lebanon, and even Iraq and the Gulf states.

One thing is certain. Having been an important player in Egypt's political landscape for nearly a century, the Muslim Brotherhood is a force to be reckoned with. It cannot be ignored, and no amount of Glenn Beck-style hyperventilating will change that.

Muslim Brotherhood
 

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Tunisia Shuns Italian Offer on Border Aid

By STACY MEICHTRY

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini was traveling to Tunis on Monday for talks with Tunisia's interim government, after the North African country rebuffed Italy's offer to deploy paramilitary police along Tunisian coastlines to stem the flow of migrants toward Italy.

A wave of migrants has hit Italian shores in the wake of political unrest that sent Tunisia's former president into exile.

Tunisia is "surprised at this stance and affirms that it categorically rejects any interference in its internal affairs or offense against its sovereignty," Tunisia's official TAP news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying.

Italy has requested €100 million ($135 million) in aid from the European Union to fund border-control operations, Italian Interior Minister Roberto Maroni told a news conference late Monday, adding that Tunisia's cooperation was "fundamental" to stopping the migrants.

Shuns Aid
 

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Italy and Malta want special summits on Africa crisis

LEIGH PHILLIPS

14.02.2011 @ 18:08 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Italy and Malta are pressing for special summits to deal with the "epic emergency" resulting from the upheaval in north Africa.

While the focus for the two states on the ramparts of Fortress Europe is to be a feared wave of irregular migration caused by the the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the stability of the region as a whole must also be talked about, the two EU countries are saying.

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On Friday (11 February), Italian interior minister Roberto Maroni, a member of the anti-immigrant Northern League, sent a letter to the Hungarian rotating presidency of the EU requesting that Budapest put the topic of migration via the Maghreb on the table of the next meeting of EU justice and home affairs ministers, scheduled for 24-25 February.

It is understood that as of Monday, the Italian government wants instead an extraordinary summit of EU premiers and presidents in the coming days to tackle the wider issues.

The demand from Rome echoes a call by the Italian delegation of conservative MEPs in the European Parliament on Monday lest southern EU states "be left alone to deal with this urgency."

"It is absolutely essential to convene an extraordinary EU Council ... in the next few days to deal with an epic emergency comparable in intensity and scale to the fall of the Soviet Bloc in 1989", said Mario Mauro MEP, the head of the Italian delegation in the chamber, in a letter to EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy."What is happening in the Maghreb countries has to fully put into question the weakness of the EU Mediterranean Strategy," he continued.

Hungarian sources told EUobserver that Budapest "will do all it can to accommodate the Italians," but the timing is tight, and it is far from certain whether other EU member states will view the situation the same way as Rome.

Meanwhile, Malta is busy making emergency preparations in concert with the Libyan government to turn a previously scheduled Mediterranean security meeting into a head-of-state-level summit on the north African situation. The group normally meets at minister-level. If it takes place, the summit would be the first top-level so-called Five Plus Five summit since 2003.

The Five Plus Five is a security club bringing together Algeria, France, Italy, Libya, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Portugal, Spain, and Tunisia. It is entirely separate of the EU.

Malta's prime minister, Lawrence Gonzi, and foreign minister, Tonio Borg, took a surprise trip to Tripoli last Wednesday amid fears that anti-government protests in Libya, its long-time anti-immigration ally, could threaten its border security.

According to Mr Borg, the pair were in Libya to discuss "stability in the region" and the Five Plus Five summit with Libyan hardman Moammar Gaddafi.

Upon his return from Tripoli, Mr Borg hit out at the EU, according to the Times of Malta, warning the bloc to "desist from adopting a condescending attitude towards Arab states" and plans to "mould their government into Western templates".

A Maltese diplomat confirmed to EUobserver that Valetta is pushing forward with the Five Plus Five discussions but that the topic is "sensitive".

"The fact that the summit will take place at a moment when political turmoil in north African countries has changed the political landscape and has ushered in a prospect of a democratic process has made this summit more relevant than before," added the diplomat. "The main concern of a number of countries about the upheavals that we have witnessed is that extremist groups might hijack the change promoted by secular and democratic forces."

The summit is to be preceded by a meeting of Five Plus Five foreign ministers in April in Naples.

Europe Worried
 

Ray

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Is Iran next?

15/02/2011

By Ali Ibrahim


Ali Ibrahim is Asharq Al-Awsat's Deputy Editor-in-Chief, based in London



Certainly what happened in Tunisia was a source of inspiration for the young people who came out to participate in the " January 25th Revolution" in Egypt, and thus two Arab regimes were overthrown in a very short space of time. The leaders of both regimes had seemed highly entrenched in their positions, and two months ago no one would have imagined the scenario that took place. After much talk and speculation about who will be next, everyone has looked to other Arab countries. Yesterday, demonstrations and clashes with opposition forces occurred on the streets to show that Iran is a potential candidate to be swept away by the impact of what happened, especially in Egypt.

It was both ironic and amusing that the Iranian Supreme Leader, and the Iranian President, praised the revolution in Egypt, and the end of President Mubarak's reign. They believed it would pave the way for an Islamic regime throughout the Middle East, yet the Iranian state media declined to mention that demands [in Egypt] were related to freedoms, democracy and the eradication of corruption. Meanwhile, having interpreted the Supreme Leader and President's comments as a form of permission, the Iranian opposition requested to go out onto the streets and march in support of what happened in Egypt and Tunisia. Their request was refused, and they were considered to have been motivated by external forces to incite chaos"¦thus adding another charge to the list of accusations leveled at the opposition in Iran.

There has been a great deal discussion and analysis regarding the "domino effect" theory, and the potential transmission of what happened in Egypt and Tunisia on to other countries. It is certain that what happened will have its impacts, for it was a political earthquake, especially in Egypt, but conditions vary from one country to another. Tunisia inspired the youth in Egypt, but this was not a case of imitation; signs of discontent in Egypt had been clear in recent years. The revolutionary movement had organized forces, strikes, and protest groups by the dozen, until the situation reached its boiling point, and we saw how the scenario panned out.

Iran had its own revolution which took place in 2009, following the presidential elections there. It was called the "Green Revolution", in reference to the "Green Movement" in Iran. The country witnessed street battles and bloody clashes for several days until they were eventually suppressed, and restrictions were placed upon opposition figures and leaders. If the young people in Tunisia and Egypt had been inspired by Iran, as the Iranian Supreme Leader claimed, then they were most likely to be inspired by the 2009 "Green Revolution", which used the same methods and means as them, such as "Facebook" and "Twitter". It was also similar in terms of its fundamental principles, with a youth movement yearning for freedom and democracy. At the time, the authorities resorted to cutting off means of communication on the internet and blocking websites, just like what happened in Egypt for several days. However, the "Green Revolution" was unsuccessful in Iran, due to the religious, ideological, and institutional domination of the Revolutionary Guard.

It is difficult now to determine the strength and continuity of the demonstrations that took place in Iran yesterday, and whether they can be resolute. However it is certain that there is a desire for freedom there, in light of what happened in 2009, and that a democratic Iran would be an important addition to the stability of the region. It is also certain that there are young people in Iran who follow what is happening in the world, and who look forward to a better future. They are likely to wonder: Why did [the revolution] succeed in Egypt and Tunisia, but not for us? Why did the army side with the people in those countries, and protect them, whilst the Revolutionary Guards behave in a different manner altogether?

http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=24165
Is Iran next?

From the western point of view, if regime change would be welcomed.

Given the manner in which the protests have been orchestrated, there is little chance of it being influenced by AQ.

Iran is an important cog in the international geopolitics since it controls one side of the narrow Straits of Hormuz, through which the major part of international oil demand passes.
 

S.A.T.A

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The demand for change that has rented the Arab world,is not something new.Arab world and the larger Islamic world has had its share of revolution and revolutionaries,the real question that one must be asking while the Arab world plunges into copy cat revolution,is will these political changes as witnessed in some countries,and demand for bringing them about at others,really translate into establishment new political deal between the ruler and the ruled,will we witness genuine political reforms and set the stage for a new political discourse where the people will retain the ultimate power to arbiter the course society and nations destiny.Will such a deal become institutionalized.

Arab world has been on the cusp of revolution before,but have often failed to deliver on genuine democratic reforms.Hope the script is different this time.
 

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