Indian Generals and Commanders have been punctiliously, meticulously and diligently planning for an exercise in futility– the so called "Cold Start Strategy". Stephen Cohen and others have been coaching the Indians on how to use the threat of a Cold Start Strategy to threaten and intimidate the Pakistanis into kowtowing to the Indian diktat. It has not worked and it will not work. Pakistan's War College has scrupulously and diligently run all the permutations of possible combinations in an India Pakistan conflict. Every conceivable action by India has been preempted and planned for.
Stephen Cohen and other Israeli and Indian pundits who come up with the "Cold Start Strategy" based it upon the 1967 model of the preemptive Israeli attack on Arab countries. The "Six Day War" destroyed the Arab Air Forces on the ground, and decimated most of the Soviet propped Arab armies that were assembling for a decisive battle with Israel.
The IAF action was decisive in taking out the artillery and infantries of the joint armies of Syria, Jordan, and Egypt.
Delhi's Cold Start Strategy Frozen DOA (Dead on Arrival)
That ephemeral "victory" by Israel allowed it to control 60% of the Egypt and took over the West Bank and Gaza. However the victory was short lived, and not decisive. The '67 war created the conditions for spring action of of '73 when the Egyptian Army only crossed the impregnable natural border of "Greater Israel", the Suez Canal. The Egyptian Army then went on to decimate the the indestructible Barlev Line–and was marching towards Tel Aviv, when US planes freshly repainted with the Star of David attacked the 3rd Army and forced it to stop the advance. The Israelis sued for peace, and promised to return Sanai to Egypt.
Why India did not attack Pakistan in 2002 and 2008? The Bharati Army hopes to demolish the 7th largest army in a few days using its rapid deployment Pakistan-specific force which is parked right on the Pakistani border. The army along with the IAF hopes to take out the Pakistan Army's command and control centers and duplicate the US attack on Iraq which destroyed the Iraqi radar system within a few hours of the attack and then had free reign over the air space. Responding to the "Surgical Strikes": Neutralizing Delhi's Cold Start strategy.
The Doctrine does not take into account the effect of Pakistani missiles, and nuclear assets. However there is much emphasis on "wiping out Pakistan". The Doctrine fails to understand the problems that India faces in Kashmir, Assam and the Maoist insurgency.
After dramatic failure of "Cold Start Strategy" India comes up with cockamamy "96 hour Rapid Thrust" scheme
India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a "limited war".
For Pakistan, there is no concept of "limited war". Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian's numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the "poison pill" defense of its nuclear weapons. Shuja Nawaz is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford University Press 2008) and the forthcoming FATA: A Most Dangerous Place (CSIS, January 2009). He can be reached at www.shujanawaz.com
If there was ever a need, the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) of India's damning reports on the depleted state of Indian military's readiness took the hot air out of the myth of Pakistan Army specific 'Cold-Start Doctrine' (CSD). If CAG reports weren't damaging enough, recent media reports of feeble condition of the Indian military have made it the laughing stock. The rundown condition of the Indian military's legacy hardware has taken the sting out of its numerical superiority; a far cry from an aggressive strategy of the CSD. Adnan Gill. The Statesman
The India-Pakistan war. Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan has written a brilliant article on Azm e Nau and the objectives of the Cold Start Strategy.
Pakistan Army has started its biggest Military exercises in history. The exercise Azm-e-Nou 3 is outcome of two war games conducted by forces named as Azm-e-Nou 1 and Azm-e-Nou 2. In this exercise Pakistani Forces will practice its new concepts and doctrine to counter Indian Army's Cold Start.
Stephen Cohen and other Israeli and Indian pundits who come up with the "Cold Start Strategy" based it upon the 1967 model of the preemptive Israeli attack on Arab countries. The "Six Day War" destroyed the Arab Air Forces on the ground, and decimated most of the Soviet propped Arab armies that were assembling for a decisive battle with Israel.
The IAF action was decisive in taking out the artillery and infantries of the joint armies of Syria, Jordan, and Egypt.
Delhi's Cold Start Strategy Frozen DOA (Dead on Arrival)
That ephemeral "victory" by Israel allowed it to control 60% of the Egypt and took over the West Bank and Gaza. However the victory was short lived, and not decisive. The '67 war created the conditions for spring action of of '73 when the Egyptian Army only crossed the impregnable natural border of "Greater Israel", the Suez Canal. The Egyptian Army then went on to decimate the the indestructible Barlev Line–and was marching towards Tel Aviv, when US planes freshly repainted with the Star of David attacked the 3rd Army and forced it to stop the advance. The Israelis sued for peace, and promised to return Sanai to Egypt.
Why India did not attack Pakistan in 2002 and 2008? The Bharati Army hopes to demolish the 7th largest army in a few days using its rapid deployment Pakistan-specific force which is parked right on the Pakistani border. The army along with the IAF hopes to take out the Pakistan Army's command and control centers and duplicate the US attack on Iraq which destroyed the Iraqi radar system within a few hours of the attack and then had free reign over the air space. Responding to the "Surgical Strikes": Neutralizing Delhi's Cold Start strategy.
The Doctrine does not take into account the effect of Pakistani missiles, and nuclear assets. However there is much emphasis on "wiping out Pakistan". The Doctrine fails to understand the problems that India faces in Kashmir, Assam and the Maoist insurgency.
After dramatic failure of "Cold Start Strategy" India comes up with cockamamy "96 hour Rapid Thrust" scheme
India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a "limited war".
For Pakistan, there is no concept of "limited war". Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian's numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the "poison pill" defense of its nuclear weapons. Shuja Nawaz is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within (Oxford University Press 2008) and the forthcoming FATA: A Most Dangerous Place (CSIS, January 2009). He can be reached at www.shujanawaz.com
If there was ever a need, the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) of India's damning reports on the depleted state of Indian military's readiness took the hot air out of the myth of Pakistan Army specific 'Cold-Start Doctrine' (CSD). If CAG reports weren't damaging enough, recent media reports of feeble condition of the Indian military have made it the laughing stock. The rundown condition of the Indian military's legacy hardware has taken the sting out of its numerical superiority; a far cry from an aggressive strategy of the CSD. Adnan Gill. The Statesman
The India-Pakistan war. Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan has written a brilliant article on Azm e Nau and the objectives of the Cold Start Strategy.
Pakistan Army has started its biggest Military exercises in history. The exercise Azm-e-Nou 3 is outcome of two war games conducted by forces named as Azm-e-Nou 1 and Azm-e-Nou 2. In this exercise Pakistani Forces will practice its new concepts and doctrine to counter Indian Army's Cold Start.