Why does it look like in the end, this whole NATO, Ukraine, Russia Fiasco will end in a full scale war, looking by the updates, I don't know why it seems that way.
I think Russia will not engage in a full scale war. It does not have the means to hold on to Ukraine even if it can overrun Ukrainian regular forces. And NATO will ensure that Ukrainian forces will inflict a million cuts to Russian forces (that's what these Javelins, AT4s, Stingers are for), plus the economic fall-out will be severe.
Russia will try to do a localized take over of what is otherwise already rebel held areas in Eastern Ukraine, Crimea style. Here, weaker countries France and Germany will make sure that the West cannot mount a devastating unified response much like in 2014.
But even if Russia succeeds in dismembering more portions of Eastern Ukraine, it still lost the rest of Ukraine which the West will economically and militarily prop up moving forward in an effort to make it a prosperous democratic country enticing ordinary Russians of what they're missing.
What is interesting is how will Putin do his climb-down...