Civil war in Ukraine

[JBH22]

If Russia is serious about the invasion, they have to take advantage of speed and surprise and invade within this month, before NATO and Ukraine can fully mobilize their forces.

Even if Ukraine arms itself it will be difficult to fight Russia in a conventional conflict. Russians have gained good experience, Ukraine is only limited to donbass conflict.
Russian top brass have some serious combat experience from chechnya to Syria.

Thereafter, Ukraine will completely activate reserves, plus they are getting surplus NATO supplies every day. It will turn into a fortress. Not to mention NATO is planning a naval exercise in the Mediterranean and the whole allied navy + CBG will be on Russia.

Despite all the hype Private Ramirez is not coming to save Ukraine. NATO will give logistical, intelligence and funding support. I do not see them in combat role.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Even if Ukraine arms itself it will be difficult to fight Russia in a conventional conflict. Russians have gained good experience, Ukraine is only limited to donbass conflict.
Russian top brass have some serious combat experience from chechnya to Syria.

True, Ukraine might not have a battle-hardened army, but Ukraine will have the advantage of having the home ground, and therefore will be able to fight guerilla-style with their superior numbers.
Attackers are always at a disadvantage when invading a prepared army. Ukraine can set up bunkers and trenches and mine the ground to deny armor movement, and Russia will struggle to move forward at all.

Despite all the hype Private Ramirez is not coming to save Ukraine. NATO will give logistical, intelligence and funding support. I do not see them in combat role.

I am sure not a single NATO soldier will come to defend Ukraine. Airforce and Navy, it will be a different case. NATO can and probably will maintain airspace denial over Ukraine if Russia tries to attack. Same for Navy as well.

 

[Akim]

Do they serve in the Russian army for 25 years? If the soldier is not fired upon, then what difference does it make about the memories of the past.

 

[JBH22]

Do they serve in the Russian army for 25 years? If the soldier is not fired upon, then what difference does it make about the memories of the past.

I can answer this
PLA has superior budget and manpower yet it could not rampage us in June 20 in Galwaan. Reason being India has combat experience in mountain warfare. Most the present IA top brass had first hand experience in Kargil war which occurred in 1999. So in that sense experience is useful.

Ukraine morale I'm sure is high, agreed also you are fighting for the motherland. Its just odds are stacked against you in a conventional fight.
Ukraine if it manages to trap Russia in partisan conflict, we can see Russian bear being inflicted losses.

 

[FalconSlayers]

@ezsasa German Naval Chief suffered for no reason

Open Letter: It's Time to Invite Russia to Join NATO

Trans-Atlantic security needs have changed fundamentally in the last two decades. The East-West confrontation has ended, and Moscow now shares many interests with NATO. It is time for the alliance to open its doors to Russia, say German defense experts Volker Rühe, Klaus Naumann, Frank Elbe and...

www.spiegel.de

 

[Akim]

I can answer this
PLA has superior budget and manpower yet it could not rampage us in June 20 in Galwaan. Reason being India has combat experience in mountain warfare. Most the present IA top brass had first hand experience in Kargil war which occurred in 1999. So in that sense experience is useful.

Ukraine morale I'm sure is high, agreed also you are fighting for the motherland. Its just odds are stacked against you in a conventional fight.
Ukraine if it manages to trap Russia in partisan conflict, we can see Russian bear being inflicted losses.

Let them try to win in a normal battle at the beginning.

 

[karn]

Do they serve in the Russian army for 25 years? If the soldier is not fired upon, then what difference does it make about the memories of the past.

There is a great amount of learning to be had from an actual enemy that shoots at you far more than exercises. Here in India even armored formations are rotated through insurgency hit areas for things like road clearing to keep them on their toes an institutional expertise evolves in this scenario.
All that said IMO Ukraines problems today are what they were for hundreds of years ..an utterly flat terrain with no protection from invaders that is a larger factor than weapons or the quality of the soldiery. A problem that Russia share with you .. hence the current crisis.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Russia is apparently moving a large amount of air-defense assets including S-400, S-300, Buk, and Panstir to the Belarus and Ukraine border. Seems they have factored in NATO trying to interfere with their air force.

 

[karn]

I'm just hoping for the good ending . USA signs an an actual treaty where they promise not to expand NATO and Russian forces go home .

 

[Akim]

I'm just hoping for the good ending . USA signs an an actual treaty where they promise not to expand NATO and Russian forces go home .

Then "tomorrow" Russia will demand something else. This is how spring 2021 began.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

True, Ukraine might not have a battle-hardened army, but Ukraine will have the advantage of having the home ground, and therefore will be able to fight guerilla-style with their superior numbers.
Attackers are always at a disadvantage when invading a prepared army. Ukraine can set up bunkers and trenches and mine the ground to deny armor movement, and Russia will struggle to move forward at all.



I am sure not a single NATO soldier will come to defend Ukraine. Airforce and Navy, it will be a different case. NATO can and probably will maintain airspace denial over Ukraine if Russia tries to attack. Same for Navy as well.

No way.. NATO will not try to maintain airspace denial over Ukraine.. It would suffer losses, and run the risk of Russia attacking aircraft in NATO air space.. NATO naval forces too would be deployed only in the Mediterranean.. US wont risk its capital ships by entering the black sea, given the sheer anti ship capabilities of Russia in the Black sea

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Russia is apparently moving a large amount of air-defense assets including S-400, S-300, Buk, and Panstir to the Belarus and Ukraine border. Seems they have factored in NATO trying to interfere with their air force.

Yep.. deter eastern european pomeranians, who might think they are big dogs, just because they are NATO members.. Threaten the Suwalki gap, and NATO would be less adventurous..

 

[karn]

Then "tomorrow" Russia will demand something else. This is how spring 2021 began.

You don't have much to offer that they want which cannot be achieved trough trade.. What they want is to strengthen their southern flank to prevent a repeat of fall Blau (case blue).
I understand where you are coming from but being a Frontline state for NATO is going to wreck your country . We Indians can only point
you to Pakistan ...a Frontline state for CENTO.

 

[JBH22]

You don't have much to offer that they want which cannot be achieved trough trade.. What they want is to strengthen their southern flank to prevent a repeat of fall Blau (case blue).
I understand where you are coming from but being a Frontline state for NATO is going to wreck your country . We Indians can only point
you to Pakistan ...a Frontline state for CENTO.

Well from his post I gather that Ukraine will be rampaging Russia forces and they will be capturing kremlin. Once you get into the orbit of Uncle Sam, only misery lies ahead.
Poor Ukraine will be raped, NATO is just neo colonialism. INDIA knows this too much.

 

[karn]

Well from his post I gather that Ukraine will be rampaging Russia forces and they will be capturing kremlin. Once you get into the orbit of Uncle Sam, only misery lies ahead.
Poor Ukraine will be raped, NATO is just neo colonialism. INDIA knows this too much.

The Americans would be happy to fight this war to the last Ukrainian just on the principle of having The option of someday adding Ukraine to NATO.

 

[Akim]

You don't have much to offer that they want which cannot be achieved trough trade.. What they want is to strengthen their southern flank to prevent a repeat of fall Blau (case blue).
I understand where you are coming from but being a Frontline state for NATO is going to wreck your country . We Indians can only point
you to Pakistan ...a Frontline state for CENTO.

This is a contrived suggestion. Putin knows that joining NATO is a distant prospect.

 

[karn]

This is a contrived suggestion. Putin knows that joining NATO is a distant prospect.

And Putin "knows" that the distance to this prospect will be covered in time . Considering NATO has only expanded eastward.

 

[Akim]

And Putin "knows" that the distance to this prospect will be covered in time . Considering NATO has only expanded eastward.

Can you imagine, Japan is not in NATO, but there are American bases there.
The problem is not with NATO. He wants us not to be sold Western weapons and in 10 years we will have neither aviation nor air defense.

 

[karn]

I can answer this
PLA has superior budget and manpower yet it could not rampage us in June 20 in Galwaan. Reason being India has combat experience in mountain warfare. Most the present IA top brass had first hand experience in Kargil war which occurred in 1999. So in that sense experience is useful.

Ukraine morale I'm sure is high, agreed also you are fighting for the motherland. Its just odds are stacked against you in a conventional fight.
Ukraine if it manages to trap Russia in partisan conflict, we can see Russian bear being inflicted losses.

Yes .. thank you musharraf . Without his retarded attack on us we would not have been prepared for the PLA.
But your analogy makes no sense in this context since their entire terrain is flat and very difficult to defend. If the urals moved to Donbas the Russians would park an ungodly amount of artillery there and call it a day.

 

[karn]

Can you imagine, Japan is not in NATO, but there are American bases there.
The problem is not with NATO. He wants us not to be sold Western weapons and in 10 years we will have neither aviation nor air defense.

NATO is only in Europe. The Japanese have a sweet deal with the Americans to defend them while not having to reciprocate..and this is enabled by the enormous benefit that Japan has on the the US economy.
Japan has an entire sea between them and Russia proper.
Japan was always a hostile power to Russia .
My point is do not trust the Americans
.. if you can benefit them economically you are fine. if not you are cannon fodder .