Civil war in Ukraine

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Knowitall

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When there were joint air exercises with the United States, our fighters, of course, are inferior in electronic equipment, but if radio engineering troops help them from the ground, then the Americans had no chance.
We will protect our sky. even if the Russians have better aviation.
Look I have nothing against you or your country.

I was just merely pointing out that the state of your economy and military industrial complex is not exactly great if we are to out it lightly.

Something you pointed out yourself sometime back on the topic of MRAP's.

Anyways how is the situation in Ukraine. I was reading about Ukraine forming regional defence groups and so on.

Is it true?
 

The Shrike

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US wont get involved ditectly.. There is zero political appetite for that in US..
Democrats will be wiped out in mid terms, if a few thousand US soldiers will end up being killed in Ukraine, of all places..
Counter argument: Biden's approval rating is at record lows, in American politics there is nothing like a war to raise your popularity.
 

ezsasa

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Ukraine realistically stands little to no chance of stopping any Russian breakthrough.

While everyone is busy focusing of Russia people need to focus on the dilapidated state of Ukrainian forces especially their Navy and Air force.

Everything west of dnieper river including the 3 main cities will fall within 72 hours if the Russians choose to invade from Belarus.

Russian annexation of Crimea followed by the events in donbass was probably the first successful implementation of hybrid warfare anywhere in the world.

The following Syrian intervention once again showed the successful modernization of Russian armed forces.

Ukraine on the other has not been very successful even against the rebels in donbass.
and for all the talk about providing resources to ukraine to defend itself, whatever resources are being provided to ukraine are very little from NATO. whole drama while trump was president providing assistance was about 200 million $ that's roughly 1500 crores ₹, which took more than two years to get released from US Gov.

in other words, it seems NATO wants Russia to escalate, so that their existence is justified. as being said in @doreamon 's post above.
=========
Ukraine's Defense Ministry confirms it has already received a shipment of "light anti-tank weapons" provided by United Kingdom. Congrats, folks! RAF's Boeing C-17s were indeed carrying NLAWs to Kyiv last night.

 

Flash12

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60+ BTG have been activated in eastern military district & are moving west specially into Belarus. That's roughly 10 motorized divisions & it's going to go up , it's basically over for Ukraine. Time to overthrow the government now before anyone get killed.
Russian troops arrived in Belarus to participate in the "Union Resolve"
"Alexander Lukashenko announced the holding of Russian-Belarusian exercises the day before. According to the president, they should start in February. The goal is to test the ability of the military of the Union State to repel threats at the border."
 

Knowitall

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and for all the talk about providing resources to ukraine to defend itself, whatever resources are being provided to ukraine are very little from NATO. whole drama while trump was president providing assistance was about 200 million $ that's roughly 1500 crores ₹, which took more than two years to get released from US Gov.

in other words, it seems NATO wants Russia to escalate, so that their existence is justified. as being said in @doreamon 's post above.
=========
Ukraine's Defense Ministry confirms it has already received a shipment of "light anti-tank weapons" provided by United Kingdom. Congrats, folks! RAF's Boeing C-17s were indeed carrying NLAWs to Kyiv last night.

I think it's more than that.

Russia right now faces 2 choices don't fight and see the gradual integration of Ukraine into EU and nato all while they improve their defences or invade Ukrainie while they are still weak and face possible insurgency and sanctions.

This is a lose lose situation for Russia and and the US has them right where it wants them to be.

So from the Russian pov the option of invasion seems the best one because sanctions is something the Russians belive they can handle at this point.
 

ezsasa

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Its a good interview to know background . ex pentagon advisor .

came to this thread to post my understanding of the situation, most of it is covered in this interview from a US perspective.
Thanks for posting.

This video about Nord stream 2 will fill some more gaps in understanding about the motivations behind these moves.


Now will have to find info on european economic motivations (beyond the rhetoric) to get the full picture.
 

Akim

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Look I have nothing against you or your country.

I was just merely pointing out that the state of your economy and military industrial complex is not exactly great if we are to out it lightly.

Something you pointed out yourself sometime back on the topic of MRAP's.

Anyways how is the situation in Ukraine. I was reading about Ukraine forming regional defence groups and so on.

Is it true?
Yes its true. We have a strong land component, strong air defense, weak aviation (against the background of Russia, but not other European countries) and a very weak fleet. But no one is going to conduct naval battles.
 

ezsasa

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I think it's more than that.

Russia right now faces 2 choices don't fight and see the gradual integration of Ukraine into EU and nato all while they improve their defences or invade Ukrainie while they are still weak and face possible insurgency and sanctions.

This is a lose lose situation for Russia and and the US has them right where it wants them to be.

So from the Russian pov the option of invasion seems the best one because sanctions is something the Russians belive they can handle at this point.
i am still collecting background information, some of my opinions may not be on point at the moment.
 

Knowitall

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Yes its true. We have a strong land component, strong air defense, weak aviation (against the background of Russia, but not other European countries) and a very weak fleet. But no one is going to conduct naval battles.
What about the situation in Ukraine?

Are the reservists being called up or is the country preparing for war.
 

Akim

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What about the situation in Ukraine?

Are the reservists being called up or is the country preparing for war.
I have already said that we do not yet have mobilization, but in the event of an invasion, we have half a million reservists who participated in the hostilities and they do not need to be explained how to shoot correctly.
 

The Shrike

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obviously this case is more complex than what is being discussed here.

and also the case that while this crisis is going on, India is probably the only country to use Ukrainian engines in Russian warships being built in Russia for India.

Let’s not sell ourselves short
Is that making a virtue out of nessesity? We buy up half built Russian warships while our own private ship yards have no orders - give another country leverage over you and then complain when they use that against you.
 

ezsasa

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Is that making a virtue out of nessesity? We buy up half built Russian warships while our own private ship yards have no orders - give another country leverage over you and then complain when they use that against you.
whether we like it or not, Cold war legacy continues to persist in global affairs in today's era. so in this case, yes this is a case of "making a virtue out of a necessity".

but considering ukraine and russia haven't stopped trading (pre-pandemic) with each other, why should we withhold ourselves from fulfilling our requirements.

Screenshot 2022-01-19 at 2.21.22 PM.png
Screenshot 2022-01-19 at 2.21.11 PM.png
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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The majority of people seem to believe that there will be two possible paths Russia will take. An invasion from the East up till the Dnieper River, or from the West through Belarus.

However, there's a third way too, if they use the Black Sea coast. They could seize land from Russia to Transnistria- to 1) secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and 2) block Ukraine's access to sea.

Seizing Odessa via Transnistria, Crimea and the sea would pretty much ensure Russia complete control of Ukraine's coastline.
 

The Shrike

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and for all the talk about providing resources to ukraine to defend itself, whatever resources are being provided to ukraine are very little from NATO. whole drama while trump was president providing assistance was about 200 million $ that's roughly 1500 crores ₹, which took more than two years to get released from US Gov.

in other words, it seems NATO wants Russia to escalate, so that their existence is justified. as being said in @doreamon 's post above.
=========
Ukraine's Defense Ministry confirms it has already received a shipment of "light anti-tank weapons" provided by United Kingdom. Congrats, folks! RAF's Boeing C-17s were indeed carrying NLAWs to Kyiv last night.

Specifically the US (rather than NATO), would see a great opportunity to weaken Russia im case they invade via supporting an insurgency and by sanctions. Also a Russian invasion will destroy any future prospects of a Franco-German led EU project that wants to position itself as a separate pole (apart from US and China).
 

Shashank Nayak

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The majority of people seem to believe that there will be two possible paths Russia will take. An invasion from the East up till the Dnieper River, or from the West through Belarus.

However, there's a third way too, if they use the Black Sea coast. They could seize land from Russia to Transnistria- to 1) secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and 2) block Ukraine's access to sea.

Seizing Odessa via Transnistria, Crimea and the sea would pretty much ensure Russia complete control of Ukraine's coastline.
Yes.. they would like to seize upto Moldova, and block Ukraine access to sea..
 

Flash12

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1 million.. no way.. Russian resevists are being mobilized only in the past few days..
Their general said that they were not opposed to 100,000 troops on the border, but to the entire 1 million Russian army.
They also like to tell that they have been successfully fighting Russia for 8 years. This is the Guinness record.
 
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