Civil war in Ukraine

[Shashank Nayak]

Just like Ukraine now, the Baltic states and other Eastern European countries that Stalin forcibly absorbed after WW2 rushed to join the EU and NATO as soon as they we're freed from Soviet/Russian hold.

There is NO COUNTRY among Eastern and Baltic states would like to fall under Russia's sphere of influence - None!

... Except Lulashenko.

There is only one security guarantor in NATO that truly matters. It is the US. You include a country into a security alliance only "If you are sure about defending it".. NATO is America's empire in Europe.At the time, Russia was crippled, so US thought that it could include Baltic countries ( which are indefensible against a Russian attack.. see suwalki gap dilemma) without a cost..
And because Russia is much stronger now, that is why inspite of all the noise, US has not included Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, because after 2008, US knows that US cannot defend them, and the days of cost free NATO expansion are over..

 

[Shashank Nayak]

The evacuation presidency:

 

[asianobserve]

Yes, just like Ukraine and Georgia now. They are begging so why NATO doesnt take them?

You just disproved your own lie that NATO initiated its expansion into countries neighboring Russia...

The fact is that it is these countries who have and are courting NATO. So in the case of Ukraine and Georgia, NATO cannot accept the application of these countries for the alliance will most likely plunge it into a war with Russia.

Any great county somewhen absobed other countries so what? West was first who claimed Iron Curtain against USSR and had sphere of influence and occupied countries in West Europe. So was USSR who had sphere of influence and occupied countries in East Europe to face the West.

" among Eastern and Baltic states" "... Except Lulashenko"
- oops )) so why only among Eastern and Baltic states and except Lukashenko? why it only plays here?

The Iron curtain monicker was a reaction to USSR's subjugation of Baltic and Eastern European countries that were independent before WW2 but which Stalin forcibly annexed into USSR.

 

[asianobserve]

Once Russia conquers Ukraine .. ( Belarus is almost defacto Russia now ), there will be no more of eastern Europe left to join NATO..

Russia conquering Ukraine...

If mighty USSR cannot conquer even medieval Afghanistan back in the days, the more that weak Russia cannot conquer Ukraine now.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Russia conquering Ukraine...

If mighty USSR cannot conquer even medieval Afghanistan back in the days, the more that weak Russia cannot conquer Ukraine now.

Don't be so sure.. Not that I advocate an invasion of Ukraine.. but Afghanistan was peripheral to Russian/USSR interests.. Ukraine is not.. You can think of it as India's Kashmir or north east.. where we had insurgency for 3 decades to 6 decades, but we are still there..
Russia might simply choose to live with an insurgency..
Meanwhile Ukraine is one third of Russian population. It is not a small country.. So, I would say, it would be very very difficult for Russia to capture whole of Ukraine, although it might well bite off significant chunks..

 

[asianobserve]

The evacuation presidency:


View attachment 123688

Evacuating US citizens from Ukraine means sending US military into Ukraine. This same military in rvaxuation effort can easily be redirected to covertly assist Ukrainian military in case of war with Russia.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/06/us-says-it-will-send-troops-to-eastern-europe-if-russia-invades-ukraine

 

[asianobserve]

Don't be so sure.. Not that I advocate an invasion of Ukraine.. but Afghanistan was peripheral to Russian/USSR interests.. Ukraine is not.. You can think of it as India's Kashmir or north east.. where we had insurgency for 3 decades to 6 decades, but we are still there..

Russia can succeed in annexing parts of Ukraine but it cannot successfully invade the whole Ukraine.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Russia can succeed in annexing parts of Ukraine but it cannot successfully invade the whole Ukraine.

Absolutely.. Ukraine is quite a big country in Size as well as population, by European standards..

 

[asianobserve]

Once Russia conquers Ukraine .. ( Belarus is almost defacto Russia now ), there will be no more of eastern Europe left to join NATO..

Looks like you need to dust up your globe. Most of Eastern Europe aside from Russia is now part of the West and NATO...

 

[asianobserve]

There is only one security guarantor in NATO that truly matters. It is the US. You include a country into a security alliance only "If you are sure about defending it".. NATO is America's empire in Europe.At the time, Russia was crippled, so US thought that it could include Baltic countries ( which are indefensible against a Russian attack.. see suwalki gap dilemma) without a cost..
And because Russia is much stronger now, that is why inspite of all the noise, US has not included Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, because after 2008, US knows that US cannot defend them, and the days of cost free NATO expansion are over..

Read post WW2 history of tge Baltic and how much the Baltic countries wanted to be free from the USSR and still fear Russia.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Evacuating US citizens from Ukraine means sending US military into Ukraine. This same military in rvaxuation effort can easily be redirected to covertly assist Ukrainian military in case of war with Russia.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/06/us-says-it-will-send-troops-to-eastern-europe-if-russia-invades-ukraine

Man, that's some high grade copium you are on. A Russian invasion will not be like the counter insurgencies these woke Yankee generals have fought.. These handful of US troops will either die or flee..
There is no easy and cost free way here for US. The only way to deter Russia is to organize a massive buildup of American troops before Russia invades Ukraine.. But, US has been saying they would deploy large number of troops in Eastern European NATO member states after Russia invades Ukraine.. Poor Ukrainians.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Looks like you need to dust up your globe. Most of Eastern Europe aside from Russia is now part of the West and NATO...

View attachment 123689

That's what I meant you fool, that There will be no more Eastern European nation "Left" to join NATO.
I.e. they would be part of either American Gang or Russian Gang..

 

[asianobserve]

Man, that's some high grade copium you are on. A Russian invasion will not be like the counter insurgencies these woke Yankee generals have fought.. These handful of US troops will either die or flee..
There is no easy and cost free way here for US. The only way to deter Russia is to organize a massive buildup of American troops before Russia invades Ukraine.. But, US has been saying they would deploy large number of troops in Eastern European NATO member states after Russia invades Ukraine.. Poor Ukrainians.

Of course I'm speculating. But even if even my wild guess do come true most likely US troops will not directly take on the Russians but would do crucial support efforts.

 

[asianobserve]

Of course I'm speculating. But even if even my wild guess do come true most likely US troops will not directly take on the Russians but would do crucial support efforts.

Even Belarus will defect to the West if only Lukashenko has a place there.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Even Belarus will defect to the West if only Lukashenko has a place there.

Every country will join the West until there is no west left.. As if Hungary and Poland are paragons of liberal democracy...

 

[Akim]

There is only one security guarantor in NATO that truly matters. It is the US. You include a country into a security alliance only "If you are sure about defending it".. NATO is America's empire in Europe.At the time, Russia was crippled, so US thought that it could include Baltic countries ( which are indefensible against a Russian attack.. see suwalki gap dilemma) without a cost..
And because Russia is much stronger now, that is why inspite of all the noise, US has not included Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, because after 2008, US knows that US cannot defend them, and the days of cost free NATO expansion are over..

NATO is a collegial body, not Tabaqui of US. I am also skeptical about this organization. The time has returned to conclude direct military alliances between countries.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

NATO is a collegial body, not Tabaqui of US. I am also skeptical about this organization. The time has returned to conclude direct military alliances between countries.

NATO is Tabaqui of US dude..
Just give it a good wash, and the collegial body will morph into Tabaqui.. War is too bloody a business to be at the mercy of collegial bodies.. NATO is effective only to the extent the US wants it to be.. Its time European nations, particularly western European c*nts start spending serious money on their defense..

 

[Akim]

NATO is Tabaqui of US dude..
Just give it a good wash, and the collegial body will morph into Tabaqui.. War is too bloody a business to be at the mercy of collegial bodies.. NATO is effective only to the extent the US wants it to be.. Its time European nations, particularly western European c*nts start spending serious money on their defense..

I agree. Western Europe is like an ostrich. Our president too. But if you bury your head in the sand, the problem won't go away.

 

[Flash12]

You just disproved your own lie that NATO initiated its expansion into countries neighboring Russia...

? Where is lie?

Enlargement of NATO

2 March 1999	Czech Republic	Fourth
Hungary
Poland
29 March 2004	Bulgaria	Fifth
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia

"The Iron curtain monicker was a reaction to USSR's subjugation of Baltic and Eastern European countries that were independent before WW2 but which Stalin forcibly annexed into USSR."

- this is called "adjustment of reality" Joining Baltic states - 1940, Iron curtain announcing - 1946.

 

[Flash12]

"The Iron curtain monicker was a reaction to USSR's subjugation of Baltic and Eastern European countries that were independent before WW2 but which Stalin forcibly annexed into USSR."

And on Yalta Conference 1945 United States and Britain agreed that future governments in Eastern European nations bordering Soviet Union should be “friendly” to the Soviet regime, satisfying Stalin’s desire for a zone of influence to provide a buffer against future conflicts in Europe.