The EU is reeling Between US and Russia
Washington has certainly succeeded in permeating an already embattled EU with a little extra – what else – chaos, by pitting the "West" against Russia.
The Obama administration – infested with neo-con cells, those ghosts inside the machine – have always believed that a package of Western sanctions plus a Saudi-unleashed oil price war would be enough to bring down the Russian economy, thus "changing its behavior" on Ukraine, and in the best scenario provoking regime change in Moscow.
Well, it's not working. Minsk 2.0 – as fragile an agreement as it is – de facto shows Germany (assisted by France), the leading European powers, trying to break away from the American Chaos project.
The Empire of Chaos does not want a lasting agreement on Ukraine – and will do everything to torpedo Minsk 2.0. NATO's strategic imperative remains clear; force Moscow into a war in Ukraine to exhaust it economically, prevent a EU-Russia economic/trade partnership, and eliminate Russia as a global competitor to the US.
The oil price war, for its part, is also not going swimmingly anymore. Neo-cons are actually desperate; they've seen how the Saudi strategy is killing the US shale oil industry.
Now they are not saying out loud they want an oil price rise to help Russia; but rather to keep killing Russia with low prices while the US reaps the gains by imposing a protectionist tariff. As the neo-cons see it, this way they will also kill Saudi Arabia and Iran. And this scheme was not even concocted by notorious Russophobe Dr. Zbig "Grand Chessboard" Brzezinski.
Don't You Step on My Loaned Suede Shoes
If geopolitically and in the energy sphere the Empire of Chaos is facing trouble, all's fine and dandy in the realm of disaster capitalism. Thanks, once again, to the IMF.
The IMF in Ukraine has been perpetrating the same devastation recently unleashed on Greece or Ireland, or across the Global South as a whole since the 1970s. Dreaded "structural adjustment" still applies – complete with an array of savage privatizations starring Western "investors" embedded with local oligarchs. That includes, of course, land grabs facilitated by IMF loans.
The $17 billion IMF loan that was miraculously produced on the eve of Minsk 2.0 not only allows the oligarchs in Kiev to keep prosecuting – by proxy – an Empire of Chaos war against Russia. It came with a key conditionality; Ukraine must imperatively be ravaged by hardcore biotech farming. And what a fabulous agricultural prize; Ukraine is the world's third largest exporter of corn, the fifth largest exporter of wheat, with a deep, rich, black soil where anything, literally, can grow. The winners, predictably, will be the usual corporate GMO suspects – from seed producers Monsanto and Dupont to farm equipment dealer, Deere.
Michael Hudson has conclusively tracked this path of turbo-neoliberalism run amok; and yes, just like in the recently orchestrated run on the ruble, "finance is the new kind of warfare", with "finance and forced sell-offs in a new kind of battlefield."
Legally, IMF head Christine "look at my new Chanel" Lagarde, also currently involved in perpetuating Greece as a "debt colony" (in the words of Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis) would not know how to justify the IMF making billionaire loans to an Ukraine plunged into civil war, and on top of it completely broke.
But Madame Lagarde actually does not run the show; secretive Masters of the Universe in the Washington/Wall Street axis do.
EU out, BRICS and SCO in
The Empire of Chaos certainly has reasons to gloat about the nasty split between the EU and Russia. Moscow's working hypothesis is that sanctions won't vanish anytime soon. And forget about "business as usual" anytime soon. Germany's captains of industry are not amused.
And yet, if only a few years ago President Putin was proposing — in Germany — a wider Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, the Ukraine tragedy has in fact turbocharged a "Go East" move; the Russia-China strategic partnership, a sort of prime Eurasia from Shanghai to St. Petersburg that also happens to be one of the touchstones of the massive Chinese-driven New Silk Road(s) infrastructure project, linking China to Europe via Central Asia and also via a high-speed rail upgrade of the Trans-Siberian.
The myth of Russia's "isolation" propelled by Washington and its vassals is a joke. An Empire of Chaos-imposed Cold War 2.0 is not the end of (Russia's) world. Russian diplomacy is active on all fronts – from South Asia (India) to the Middle East (Egypt). This summer, Russia will host two crucial summits: the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The BRICS keep advancing their push for a multipolar world — from the implementation of a development bank to trading in their own currencies. The SCO will soon welcome India and Pakistan as members, and in the near future, Iran – solidifying itself as an Asian political/economic alliance.
The Empire of Chaos's obsessive agenda precludes any benefits for the EU. Apart from Gazprom, Russia has been sidelined as a trade partner – at least in the near future. And there's not much the EU may profit from Ukraine; it won't fork out a single devalued euro to "save" it from bankruptcy, and it won't play with fire by facilitating its incorporation by NATO. I have argued it all depends on Germany. Business Germany wants to do business with Eurasian powers Russia and China. Political Germany is still wondering where its strategic priorities lie.
Diplomats in a split to the core Brussels, off the record, have hinted Moscow sent a clear message. Either everyone embarks on a Chinese-style "win-win" situation, from Lisbon to Vladivostok; or the EU blindly follows the Empire of Chaos, chooses confrontation in Ukraine, and receives as a poisoned gift a war in its eastern borderlands it cannot possibly win.
You can buy Pepe Escobar's latest book "Empire of Chaos" here.
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Good to see you back! So, you waited for this victory to post these pictures?good to see you all folks :thumb:
Welcome back Avg. Indiangood to see you all folks :thumb:
Lot of hot air, no substance.
Thoughts about the emboldened and reddened parts points.Goodbye, Putin
Why the President's Days Are Numbered
The longer the Russian war against Ukraine continues, the more likely it is that President Vladimir Putin's regime will collapse.
Despite Putin's bluster, the authoritarian regime he has constructed is exceedingly brittle. At the center stands Putin; surrounding him, the power-hungry loyalists he has folded into his inner circle. Some, called the siloviki, belong to powerful institutions such as the secret police or the army. Others, formally affiliated with various government agencies, are loyal only to Putin. In such a system, sycophantism is rewarded above good governance, empire-building runs rampant, policy loses its effectiveness, and corruption becomes routine.
The neo-tsarist ideology of Russian imperialism, Orthodox revival, and anti-Western Slavophilism that Putin has constructed has limited appeal to the cynical men who help him run Russia. Therefore, Putin's ability to retain their loyalty rests primarily on his control of the country's financial resources. Thanks to the record-high energy prices that accompanied his assumption of power in 1999, Putin was able to personally purloin some $45 billion and still have enough money to raise the country's standard of living, strengthen the Russian military, and keep his cronies happy. No longer. Oil prices have collapsed and are likely to stay low; Western sanctions are hitting hard; and the Russian economy is on the downswing.
Sooner or later Putin will be forced to make some cuts, but it is hard to know where that money will come from. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and his anti-Western ideological crusade, reducing military funding will be unfeasible. And Putin's popularity would take a serious hit if he were to roll back support to the lower classes. The only option, therefore, may be to stop his cronies from dipping into state coffers, even if doing so will alienate them.
Putin has an image problem—and he knows it.
For 15 years, Putin's record of success won him enormous public support. He crushed the Chechen rebellion, presided over military reforms, built infrastructure, improved the lives of ordinary Russians, and regularly outwitted the West. And then, just after the Sochi Olympics, he blew it all. The Crimean annexation has been an unmitigated economic disaster. The Russian war in eastern Ukraine has killed Russians by the thousands. Ukraine, which was well on its way to becoming a Russian vassal state under former President Viktor Yanukovych, has turned against the Kremlin. The ruble, along with the Russian economy, is in free fall, as Western sanctions bite. Putin, Russia's "Man of the Year," is now routinely compared to Adolf Hitler.
Beyond his policy mistakes, Putin also has an image problem. Fifteen years ago, Putin could pass himself off as a charismatic leader who, despite his diminutive size, was man enough to chase down Chechen rebels—in his own words—"even in the outhouse." That tough-guy image was essential to Putin, who claimed that he could reestablish Russia's imperial glory and needed to look the part. Now 62 years old, Putin looks tired, his face distended, and it's hard to imagine that the two leggy singers who once sang, "I want a man just like Putin," would still feel that way today.
Putin knows he's in a tough spot. He started the war in Ukraine, and now it's up to him to bring about some satisfactory conclusion, even though it's clear from his erratic behavior that he lacks a strategy. He has no way to crush Ukraine without unleashing a global conflict. He has no way to erode Ukraine's economy without simultaneously destroying Russia's. Ironically, the one thing Putin could do easily—declare victory in the Donbas and withdraw his troops—is off limits for him, not because it's politically unfeasible (most Russians would be delighted to get out of this mess), but because his own cult of personality forbids him from blinking.
OUSTING THE PRESIDENT
All signs point to the eventual collapse of Putin's regime.
Although 85 percent of Russians currently support the president, an Orange Revolution in Moscow—a city that has seen a series of mass anti-Putin demonstrations in the past few years—is not out of the question. Such a movement need not encompass the entire country to be effective. Demonstrations in the capital, like past displays of "people power" in Cairo, Kiev, and Manila, can effect regime change.
A coup d'état is another possibility. The siloviki, like all Praetorian guards, are a mixed blessing. They can keep him in power by crushing political opposition, but they can also stage a coup should they conclude that Putin's policies are undermining their own security and wealth. Putin knows that he replaced Boris Yeltsin (and that Leonid Brezhnev replaced Nikita Khrushchev) in just this fashion.
Even if Putin is not ousted by popular revolution or by a coup, he will be crippled by unrest in Russia's non-Russian regions. Much of the North Caucasus, for example, has already spun out of Moscow's control, as the recent terrorist attacks in Chechnya and the continued violence in Ingushetia and Dagestan demonstrate. As the regime visibly decays and Putin loses his sheen, militant non-Russians may emulate Putin's invocation of Russians' right to self-determination in southeastern Ukraine and pursue their own separatist agendas—with mass protests when possible, and violence when necessary. The Crimean Tatars, whose frustration with increasingly oppressive Russian rule in their homeland is growing, could be the first to act out violently. The Volga Tatars and Bashkirs, both of whom have large reserves of oil in their regions, could easily follow, as they did in the 1990s, with demands for greater autonomy or independence.
RUSSIA AFTER PUTIN
Will Russia and the world be better off without Putin? Yes, but only if Putin's successor ends the war and comes to a rapprochement with the West.
All signs point to the eventual collapse of Putin's regime.
Putin's successor, whenever he takes power, is likely to be a hardliner; even so, his first priority will have to be to clean the mess created by Putin. Chances are that the new president will be more inclined to end the war and more likely to adopt a conciliatory tone vis-Ã -vis the rest of the world.
If Putin's successor is not a hardliner, those chances will be even better. This is a small but real possibility: Russia's democrats might just be able to take control of the country at a time of chaos and instability, especially if they succeed in forging coalitions with the increasingly disgruntled Russians whose sons are dying in Ukraine and with non-Russian minorities, as Boris Yeltsin did in the waning days of the Soviet Union. Besides, if history is any indication, Russia's next leader is anybody's guess. The awful Lenin was succeeded by the dreadful Stalin, but Stalin was followed by the decent Khrushchev, who was replaced by the worse Brezhnev, who was succeeded by the good Gorbachev. And Gorbachev handed over power to the pretty good Yeltsin, who was ousted by the dreadful Putin.
In the meantime, the West should do all it can now to support Ukraine and encourage Putin to deescalate the war. The West can also limit the fallout from a possible regime collapse by supporting Russia's neighbors—especially Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine—economically, diplomatically, and militarily. When the rotten Russian dam breaks, as it inevitably will, only strong and stable non-Russian states will be able to contain the flooding, shielding the rest of the world from Putin's disastrous legacy of ruin.
Alexander J. Motyl | Why Putin's Days Are Numbered | Foreign Affairs
Are you complaining that the evil boogeyman West is trying to undermine Putin's regime? Of course they are. What kind of a complaint is that? You expect the West to let Putin walk all over Ukraine and do nothing about it? No we'll do all we can to send Putin to the gallows. We'll use unconventional means if necessary. I agree with the author's suggestion that we simply escalate the war in Ukraine and make Putin pour more funds into it. Assumping, Russian economy doesn't recover soon, this will quicken his demise.
Does it look like a complaint.
@atheisthindu must have been listening to a lot of harping by Harper. I wonder whether Canadian media is also completely state "threat" sponsored, where you have to bleat the regime line.Lot of hot air, no substance.
You should really stick to your philosophy classes (btw how are they going? you graduated?)
Putin's approval rating is at an all time high of 85%.
For comparison your Obama's approval rating is at 46% among public and 15% among his troops
(Both ratings as of jan 2015)
Also the sanctions are a failure.
Sanctions do not work on determined nations that have capability.
Russia's capability had been artificially suppressed by the Western backed oligarchs in the 90s, but the fact is Russia is a nation of enormous potential.
The sanctions are good for Russia in the long run because they will develop self-sufficiency.
Also sanctions tend to fail when most of the world (like China, India, Africa, S. America) decide not to comply with these silly Western sanctions.
Stop reading your Western govt. media (whatever it is in Canada that you watch) and get a dose of reality.
And while you are at it try to get a feel for the geopolitics at play here and the history of Anglo-saxon (Western) attempts to destabilize russia for the past 100+ years.
@atheisthindu must have been listening to a lot of harping by Harper. I wonder whether Canadian media is also completely state "threat" sponsored, where you have to bleat the regime line.
[HR][/HR]
Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said Turkey's proposed air and missile defense system will not be integrated with NATO assets.
ANKARA — The Turkish government has announced that it will not integrate its planned long-range air and anti-missile defense system with NATO assets stationed in the country.
In reply to a parliamentary question motion, Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz said Feb. 19 that the system would instead be integrated with the national systems. "It will be used without being integrated with NATO systems," Yilmaz said in a written statement.
He said that the integration of the planned system with the Turkish Armed Forces' command-and-control structure would be done locally by a company authorized by the government.
Yilmaz said that the program would be paid for by foreign financing and that there were no new bids from the contenders.
In September 2013, Turkey selected China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corp. (CPMIEC) for a $3.44 billion offer. About half of Turkey's network-based air defense picture has been paid for by NATO. The country is part of NATO's air defense ground environment. Without NATO's consent, it will be impossible for Turkey to make the planned Chinese system operable with these assets, some analysts say.
NATO and US officials have said any Chinese-built system could not be integrated with Turkey's joint air defense assets with NATO and the United States. They also have warned that any Turkish company that acts as local subcontractor in the program would face serious US sanctions because CPMIEC has been sanctioned under the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act.
After increased pressure from NATO allies, Ankara opened parallel talks with the second- and third-comers in the bidding — the European Eurosam, maker of the Aster 30, and the US Raytheon/Lockheed Martin, offering the Patriot system.
In September, for a fifth time, Turkey extended the deadline for all three bidders to Dec. 31. The Jan. 7 decision to extend the deadline for another six months is the sixth extension.
The Turkish program consists of radar, launcher and interceptor missiles. It has been designed to counter enemy aircraft and missiles. Turkey has no long-range air defense systems.
He was brainwashed nonetheless, by Harper the harper.Unlike some,he hasn't been brainwashed by Putins/Russias propaganda.
