Civil war in Ukraine

[Akim]

XYZ: What would happen if the Russian army really invaded Ukraine

...and

 

[pmaitra]

Ukraine After Poroshenko--Analysis by Aleksandr Rodzhers

By Aleksandr Rodzhers




Translated from Russian by J.Hawk


Something big's hanging in Kiev's atmosphere, saturated as it already is by intrigue, lies, paranoia, and aggression. Something big, ready to burst like an over-ripe pimple, a repository of all the scum that accumulated over the last months.




But we won't get infatuated with images, but rather focus on various facts, from less to more important.




No. 1. Klichko encountered mass demonstrations against his tenure as Mayor. Instead of trying to somehow improve his governance (though, granted, it's not to be expected with that brain and that team), he instead organized yet another "threat neutralization center," in other words, the center for defending himself from Kievans and visitors.




No. 2. The once-again-disbanded Aidar is attacking the MOD, using tires, breaking down doors, and other attributes of the Maidan.




No. 3. MVD officers (former Berkut soldiers) near Kharkov beat up a junta propagandist, the chief editor of the falsehood-mongering informator.lg. They did so in the presence of Stanko from Hromadske TV and another junta journalist.




No. 4. The junta talking heads can't get their story straight as to what's happening in Debaltsevo and Uglegorsk. Some say "everything is under control," while others say that Uglegorsk is under Novorossia control, and in Debaltsevo there is panic and attempts at mass surrenders.




No. 5. Kolomoysky-controlled battalions are still raiding business but even more nakedly than before, completely ignoring the central authorities, both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. All representatives of central authorities have been pushed out of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, this process is also evident in Odessa and some other cities.




No. 6. The fourth wave of mobilization predictably has failed. The attempts to sweep up everyone indiscriminately (but at the same time not touching the actual Nazis, who sit in the rear and organize torchlight parades, like in Ivano-Frankovsk), the junta is setting against itself the masses.




No. 7. Kiev is being flooded with militants. There are more and more of them, and they are becoming more active.




No. 8. GenStaff Chief Muzhenko said there is no Russian army in Ukraine. Thus he destroyed a year-long propaganda campaign pursued by the warmongers Yatsenyuk and Turchinov.




No. 9. Kaplin, a Poroshenko Block deputy who is always used to flush others down the toilet, said that the Donbass war was started not by Putin but by Turchinov and Poroshenko (which is absolutely correct).




No. 10. SecState Kerry personally flew to IMF to persuade them to stop Kiev credits under the pretext of "absence of reforms." It's clear to everyone that it's because the junta can't suppress the Donbass and transfer the instability into Russia. That all of it happened so publically suggests that Poroshenko is being flushed.




So we are getting a pretty clear picture: the "president of peace" is being flushed. Yet another defeat, at Debaltsevo, will serve as the trigger (the Nazis are turning up the heat, while the president is pretending everything's under control).




YuraSumy is amazed that Novorossia forces so quickly took Uglegorsk. One of the possible explanations may be an arrangement, under which Yatsenyuk-Turchinov deliberately flush the salient, in order to use it as an excuse to topple Poroshenko. Will you be surprised? I won't. Come to think of it, a whole another "heavenly division" will be formed, the bloodthirsty and drug-addled sectants will not do otherwise.




I've always been saying that Poroshenko is a typical patsy who will be sacrificed so that the others survive longer.




Poroshenko is taking this into consideration (though belatedly, nobody with any smarts would have agreed to become president in a situation like that), and is trying to neutralize Turchinov and Yatsenyuk, including through Muzhenko and Kaplin. But, in my view, he has no chance.




Russian paratroops will not be sent to Kiev to save Poroshenko (he does not deserve it and it's too much trouble), Rostov is not made of rubber, and nobody in the West needs a live Poroshenko. So he should expect to meet Kaddafi's fate, and in precisely that format, by being torn to bits by "democratic mob" which will be shown on live TV.




He might have had a chance had he formed a Praetorian Guard (study history, fatso!) capable of suppressing the oligarchy and establishing him as a "democratic dictator and peacemaker" in his own right. Instead the Ukrainian president played at senseless and fruitless intrigues in order to control the Parliament, and got drunk abroad.




During a time of troubles power is not in the hands of those to whom it is given on paper, but of those who have the most infantry. Poroshenko never understood that (unlike the others, starting with Kolomoysky and ending with Parubiy and Lyashko). While other oligarchs kept their personal banditry away from the fighting, instead sending mobilized fools to get killed, Poroshenko never formed his personal guard, instead relying on the power of the state (which does not exist in any real sense). Stupidity is punishable, therefore the outcome is predictable.




Now we can stop guessing whether Poroshenko will survive or not, and instead start analyze what the balance of power in the Ruin will be after his fall.




No. 1. The power will be even more concentrated in the Turchinov-Yatsenyuk-Nalivaycheno triumvirate (under the control of US overseers in most ministries).




No. 2. The government's legitimacy will fall even lower (even though some will consider the government "legitimate and democratic). Mainly in the eyes of the Europeans, who will be even harder to convince to support a coterie of neo-Nazis.




No. 3. The maintenance of power will be performed by armed neo-Nazi formations which will brutally suppress any "anti-government" demonstrations, including purely social ones.




No, 4. Kolomoyski will become even more uncontrollable.




No. 5. A big part of the "presidential" segment of the Rada will be torn apart for its resources that will be used to reward others. The "opposition block" will also take it on the chin, by tradition. Because they are the most dense and the most divorced from current realities, existing in order to survive and incapable of timely reactions.




No. 6. US "hawks" are adopting this variant out of desperation because they "can't topple, but also can't not topple." If they lose the Ukraine game, they will seem like losers before the entire planet which will know that Russia can outplay at will. But they can no longer win. Continuing what is destined to be a losing policy toward Ukraine, they are also losing their position in Europe. It's a lose-lose situation, and Washington is thoughtlessly adopting the more painful variant (quite possibly Obama's "self-esteem sessions" have had their effect and he genuinely believes that he tore Russia's economy "to shreds."_




Overall, further support of the junta by the US after Poroshenko's overthrow will cause the US additional reputational losses and the EU refusal to participate in this misadventure any longer (which amounts to leaving US control).




The Kiev junta post-Poroshenko, even if it receives a certain amount of aid from the US (money and weapons), it will continue to sit on a one-legged stool, the leg being the neo-Nazi battalions.




In conclusion, either variant will lead to an improvement: if Poroshenko holds on (which is unlikely) then he will have to wipe out all the "hawkish" groupings, and if not, it will become impossible the true dictatorial nature of the Kiev regime. In any event, the Ukrainian society will continue to acquire immunity to Nazis.




Translator's Note: Rodzhers is probably too optimistic about Yatsenyuk's and Turchinov's chances of survival. They have no neo-Nazi battalions of their own—what would keep them in power? About the only thing they can hope for is that Yarosh, Beletsky, etc. (and that's assuming they won't start exterminating each other) need an internationally acceptable figurehead to present to the outside world. Concerning Kolomoysky's "unruliness"—his recent actions suggest that he, and his battalions that Rodzhers assumes would be the bulwark of the post-Poroshenko regime, has other ideas in mind, namely the consolidation of control over Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, and a few other parts of the country but not necessarily including Kiev. But this also assumes that the neo-Nazi battalions he formed and funded remain loyal to him, instead of using his wealth as a "resource." The neo-Nazis have made too big a deal about ridding Ukraine of oligarchs to remain loyal to him.

 

[pmaitra]

"If you are for Obama, go to America!"--Kramatorsk women defy Ukrainian army

After the tumult quieted down, Vasilenko asked "Are you for Putin? Then, please, go to Russia."




"And who are you for? Who are you for?"—he was asked in return. "Why don't you go to America if you are for Biden and Obama."

"We have brothers, sisters, nephews, nieces, grandchildren in Russia," the women appealed to the government representative. "Nearly all of us are Russian! What do we need this war for? All of us are sitting at home, fearing for our men, and crying into the pillow," said one of the participants.

 

[jouni]

XYZ: What would happen if the Russian army really invaded Ukraine

Funny how Russia is this "high tech" giant army with all the latest toys. In real life whenever Russian military hardware in Iraq, Serbia etc have been faced with western arms, they have been worth nothing. Is it Russias policy to sell only second rate stuff to foreign countries, if so then who is stupid enough to buy it?

Russia has no more

 

[Dark Sorrow]

The only problem is that Ukrainians and Russians belong to the same race; and have no place at the European high table. The Ukrainians are being cheated by the West.

Ukraine cannot be compared with Finland. I see a tragedy of monumental proportions in Ukraine.

Sir, how can you say so. Sir just because you have a soft corner for Russia you can't say people of Ukraine have no place at the European high table.
Sir can you tell me what is it that west can't offer to Ukraine than Russia can (except Petroleum but that can also be arranged).
Sir please explain how are Ukrainians are being cheated by the West?

 

[pmaitra]

Funny how Russia is this "high tech" giant army with all the latest toys. In real life whenever Russian military hardware in Iraq, Serbia etc have been faced with western arms, they have been worth nothing. Is it Russias policy to sell only second rate stuff to foreign countries, if so then who is stupid enough to buy it?

Russia has no more

Iraq's Soviet made hardware was far inferior to those used by the Soviet Union.
The Serbs actually gave a bloody nose to vastly superior combined NATO armies.

Bottom line is, both your statements are puerile and reeks of ignorance.

 

[jouni]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TQP_OJ9bm0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgE92WJTmmE

I really like this Zacharenko guy. He has all the qualities to become some day respected leader of the country. Did he study in Oxford or maybe some top Russian university?

 

[jouni]

I do not want to insult forums Ukrainian or Russian members, but sometimes when I watch these videos or read about the conflict, I can't help but thinking, that hundred years of communism and "oligarkism" has left deeper signs to people than we first think.

Czarist Russia had law and order, christian and European values. When that legacy was destroyed and educated class terminated it left so deep marks in the society that it really shows even today. It truly is a tragedy.

 

[pmaitra]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ta9bMY9IPSg

 

[pmaitra]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsGE3tq34uY

 

[pmaitra]

American mercenary in Ukraine @0:30.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRiyqDXBBPw

 

[pmaitra]

The situation of the Ukrainian conscripts is aptly described in this nice song, but the song itself is from 2006:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDG3YO7o6D4

Lyrics:

Holidays at the "Concert" June 24, 2006
***
But help did not come,
Reinforcements sent.
We are left with only two,
---- us both.
Sorry no help came,
Reinforcements sent.
That is the usual case
We ---- with you.

Cannon died, all ----ed up,
Nothing else to fight back.
Well lit a cigarette, brother - fighter.
We do not sebatsya from death.
Sorry no help came,
Reinforcements sent.
That is the usual case
We ---- with you.

 

[pmaitra]

Translation of the message from "Azov" (written in Ukrainian):
The AFU detachments have departed from Uglegorsk.
The situation around the town of Debalcevo in the Donetsk region remains difficult.
The railroad hub was powerfully shelled using "Grads" and other heavy weapons.
The militants attacked the villages of Chernukhino and Nikishino. The situation around these settlements remains difficult.
Ukrainian forces tried to enter Uglegorsk after a preliminary bombardment, but the enemy resisted fiercely and disrupted these plans. According to the unofficial information, four Ukrainian tanks were hit.
The AFU and the National Guard detachments have left Uglegorsk. Currently the town is effectively overrun by the enemy forces.

At "Donbass" they state that four of their fighters perished during the fighting near Uglegorsk, Semenchenko suffered a concussion.
Four fighters of the "Donbass" battalion perished during the fighting near Uglegorsk of Donetsk region, the battalion commander and an MP Semen Semenchenko (n.b. Kostya Grishin and Semen Semenchenko refer to the same person) suffered a concussion. Hromadske TV announced this with a reference to the words by the chief of staff of the battalion, the callsign of "Gall". "According to him, 11 fighters were wounded, four were evacuated to Kharkov, the others — into the hospital in Artyomovsk. Also he confirmed the information about the battalion commander and MP Semen Semenchenko's concussion and two other fighters," — states the announcement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wtyblzm7I4M
NAF infantry before an attack in the area of Uglegorsk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgC-0rkTVaA
Another video from the captured checkpoint where our tanks were damaged by mines.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzuFGv0JzgY
A junta battery is firing in the area of Debalcevo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6_5Z9WYKHQ
Life-News report about the fighting for Uglegorsk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5D5Lr2EK-8
DPR MLRS "Grad" are firing.

Plus, there is another photo: a prisoner tried to remove the tattoo using a brick in order not to give himself out too much (because the fascists know that they are treated very differently than the AFU conscripts), but the stamp of nazism is not so easy to scrub off.

Source: Colonel Cassad (in English) - Situation near Uglegorsk

 

[cobra commando]

Moscow considering declaring Germany's reunification an "illegal land grab" by the West - Newstalk

 

[Akim]

Iraq's Soviet made hardware was far inferior to those used by the Soviet Union.
The Serbs actually gave a bloody nose to vastly superior combined NATO armies.

Bottom line is, both your statements are puerile and reeks of ignorance.

Russia is unable to finish even the corvettes, frigates. the submarines. They bring them down to the water, but the important elements of the electronics and optics there is not enough. Ukraine does not supply, and the West has imposed an embargo. Who knows, maybe they're from China buy. The sens of message: Russia is not able itself to provide high-tech products.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

LNR militia near Debaltsevo >>

 

[jouni]

SBU: Bodies of Russian soldiers burned in mobile crematoria : UNIAN news

According to Finnish forums seven mobile crematorios has been brought from Rostov to East Ukraine. Russians are clever, these are much more usuful than the permanent ones used by Germans.

 

[pmaitra]

SBU: Bodies of Russian soldiers burned in mobile crematoria : UNIAN news

According to Finnish forums seven mobile crematorios has been brought from Rostov to East Ukraine. Russians are clever, these are much more usuful than the permanent ones used by Germans.

A Finnish forum referring to claims by SBU. Sounds credible.

 

[pmaitra]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwlMtJA0bJQ

NATO supplied artillery shells found to have been used in the attack on a Cathedral.

Round: 155 mm M109A1.

M109 howitzer is a US made artillery system that fires these rounds. These were also used in Viet Nam.

Later in the video, there is footage of the NATO weapons found at the Donetsk Airport after the militia evicted the Kiev regime gunmen and liberated it. It appears NATO heavily armed those that were occupying the Dontesk Airport.

 

[pmaitra]

Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong


Interesting comparison between two sources that differ significantly.