Civil war in Ukraine

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ezsasa

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For now the assumption is germany's energy imports from russia seems to be a major underlying cause.
Merkel's decision to go non-nuclear energy production is forcing them to depend more on coal and natural gas for energy.
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View attachment 133519View attachment 133520

Factbox: How much does Germany need Russian gas?
continuing with this german/europe russian energy imports angle, a hypothetical state of play.

US is saying they preparing a plan to substitute russian energy imports to europe, let's say they succeed. with loss of revenue, Russia will become more dependant on chinese energy trade , US/NATO/Europe will loose whatever little leverage they have on russia.

in this scenario, does threat to ukraine at a later date increases or decreases ?
 

Waanar

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Right? Guys gave up on their own autonomy and independence, the IRA has pretty much become a laughing stock now, and they are more concerned with "democracy and freedom" of other countries.
The Irish military is obviously a laughable force but I've read a lot about IRA. They're no laughing stock, mate.

They were fucked over by their own leadership regarding the good Friday agreement and I can assure you, if UK weakens further, they'll start their campaign in full swing again.
This decade, most probably.

This is a stupid move though.
Russia increasing it's stranglehold will only help their cause.

See, @asianobserve ?
Another colonised country being helped by Russia.
As usual. :megusta:

A few FSB members restarting and aiding the IRA would put a lot of pressure on UK to decrease it's eastern misadventures.
Just sayin.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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The Irish military is obviously a laughable force but I've read a lot about IRA. They're no laughing stock, mate.

They were fucked over by their own leadership regarding the good Friday agreement and I can assure you, if UK weakens further, they'll start their campaign in full swing again.
This decade, most probably.

This is a stupid move though.
Russia increasing it's stranglehold will only help their cause.

See, @asianobserve ?
Another colonised country being helped by Russia.
As usual. :megusta:
I agree, the original IRA which fought in the Irish Civil War, and even the paramilitary group that fought up till the 90s was fearsome. I was talking about the present situation, hasn't the IRA disintegrated by now? There are splinter groups like the Continuity IRA, Real IRA which are a joke and not even a shadow of the former IRA.

The Good Friday agreement was a complete farce, I can't believe that the majority of people in Northern Ireland actually agreed to it. There were a lot of rumblings from ranks of the IRA, and they carried out some insurgency here and there, but the movement's pretty much died down now.

Do you really think that if the UK weakens more, the IRA can make a comeback to the armed conflicts that existed in the 60s throughout the 80s? Please elaborate.
 

asianobserve

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continuing with this german/europe russian energy imports angle, a hypothetical state of play.

US is saying they preparing a plan to substitute russian energy imports to europe, let's say they succeed. with loss of revenue, Russia will become more dependant on chinese energy trade , US/NATO/Europe will loose whatever little leverage they have on russia.

in this scenario, does threat to ukraine at a later date increases or decreases ?

Russia does not like to be too dependent on China. So Russia will do whatever it takes to remain strong in EU gas market. But it is it's own enemy right now for Germany cannot keep on defending it especially if things gets too hot in Ukraine.

As to future Ukrainian security, Russia's power over it is only set to diminish with time.
 

Waanar

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I agree, the original IRA which fought in the Irish Civil War, and even the paramilitary group that fought up till the 90s was fearsome. I was talking about the present situation, hasn't the IRA disintegrated by now? There are splinter groups like the Continuity IRA, Real IRA which are a joke and not even a shadow of the former IRA.

The Good Friday agreement was a complete farce, I can't believe that the majority of people in Northern Ireland actually agreed to it. There were a lot of rumblings from ranks of the IRA, and they carried out some insurgency here and there, but the movement's pretty much died down now.

Do you really think that if the UK weakens more, the IRA can make a comeback to the armed conflicts that existed in the 60s throughout the 80s? Please elaborate.
Yeah, the current IRA does lay low (and kills drug dealers at most) but UK's economy's failing.
Ever since UK's talk of reinforcing and remilitarizing the border, the current IRA has been issuing statements that they'll make it ugly if that happens.

IRA was a very economic movement, it's not hard to reactivate it.
They have a safe staging ground (the rest of Ireland), committed members (Irish haven't yet given up, still live in walled enclaves separating Catholics and protestants), weapons (cached away and not surrendered) and huge chance of foreign backing (back then, it was Libya, but they will find proper support from Iran, Russia etc etc today).
Especially if UK decides to back insurgency in Ukraine if it gets rolled over by Russia, Putin will try to build up a bargaining chip, i.e, IRA.

All these western nations threatening a potential occupier without looking in their own backyard.
 

Jimih

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continuing with this german/europe russian energy imports angle, a hypothetical state of play.

US is saying they preparing a plan to substitute russian energy imports to europe, let's say they succeed. with loss of revenue, Russia will become more dependant on chinese energy trade , US/NATO/Europe will loose whatever little leverage they have on russia.

in this scenario, does threat to ukraine at a later date increases or decreases ?
Russia being dependant on Chinese energy trade, what did you meant?

Both countries produce oil and gas.
 

Jimih

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china is a major importer of russian energy exports (petroleum + coal)
View attachment 134209


View attachment 134211


Europe needs Russian gas, whether US likes it or not. The US wants to control some EU countries (read Germany) by forcing it away from Russia which is the purpose of the current Ukraine crisis.

Just as US plan in Syria was to overthrow Assad so it could link Qatar's natural gas via pipeline from Qatar through Syria to Europe to wipe out Gazprom's sales to Europe. The objective again was to separate Europe from Russia.

Putin intervened and Assad resisted the US forces.
 

Haldilal

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Yeah, the same way they resisted the Evil Empire in 1971 right ?🤣
Ya'll Nibbiars the Amerike tried to send the Enterprise group but got already scared of a single submarine in the Bay if Bengal. So much for a Supa Pawa.
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars and never forget how the Chucks plane was blown in the 1971. Still death was angry of this. The so called Supa Pawa.
 

scatterStorm

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Mastering NLAW is fast. Less than a week has passed and they are already being used in training.
:facepalm:

As if the Russian's are going to repeat the same mistake like they did in there Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Ultimately its not going to look rosy mate, I must say you prepare yourself to see your country look something like this, very soon. A country under power struggle between the two powerful nations, yeah we all have seen the story repeating itself.


 

Akim

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:facepalm:

As if the Russian's are going to repeat the same mistake like they did in there Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Ultimately its not going to look rosy mate, I must say you prepare yourself to see your country look something like this, very soon. A country under power struggle between the two powerful nations, yeah we all have seen the story repeating itself.


Russians are powerful - don't make my slippers laugh. Strength does not mean intelligence.
Living next to a bully is also not a great joy. So we are not afraid. Used to.
 

scatterStorm

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Russians are powerful - don't make my slippers laugh. Strength does not mean intelligence.
Living next to a bully is also not a great joy. So we are not afraid. Used to.
There's an ancient saying in our vedas,

Vinaash Kaale Vipareet Buddhi” (विनाश काले विपरीत बुद्धि)

  • Vipareeta in Sanskrit means, reverse or reversal.
  • Vinasha kale - When a person, or civilization is approaching there destruction or doom,
  • Bhuddhi - the discriminating intellect, which is supposed to make right decisions,
  • (works) vipareeta - reverses.

Meaning,

"In the event of impending doom, one's mind, one's intelligence works perversely", as if they are in some kind of euphoria, ignoring logic and become fanatics devoured by there own excessive hubris.

Americans or Russians, either way your country will suffer, so what's the point.
 

Akim

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There's an ancient saying in our vedas,

Vinaash Kaale Vipareet Buddhi” (विनाश काले विपरीत बुद्धि)

  • Vipareeta in Sanskrit means, reverse or reversal.
  • Vinasha kale - When a person, or civilization is approaching there destruction or doom,
  • Bhuddhi - the discriminating intellect, which is supposed to make right decisions,
  • (works) vipareeta - reverses.

Meaning,

"In the event of impending doom, one's mind, one's intelligence works perversely", as if they are in some kind of euphoria, ignoring logic and become fanatics devoured by there own excessive hubris.

Americans or Russians, either way your country will suffer, so what's the point.
What's with the Americans? Okay, propaganda is pouring out of every iron in Russia, what is the same in India? Putin annexed Crimea, unleashed a war in the Donbass, quarreled two close peoples, threatens to destroy our state, but for some reason the Americans are to blame. Do you have any idea what you're talking about?!
 

scatterStorm

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What's with the Americans? Okay, propaganda is pouring out of every iron in Russia, what is the same in India? Putin annexed Crimea, unleashed a war in the Donbass, quarreled two close peoples, threatens to destroy our state, but for some reason the Americans are to blame. Do you have any idea what you're talking about?!
:facepalm:

It may be a repost, but enough to jog your memories back to the decent criticism about Americans as well. Its just not Russia as you might think the western world would want you to see. As much as you may ignore it, and I bet this is old, but this lecture is very basic logic to the whole situation going foobar, and facts as describe in this lecture are hardcore facts. Forget Minsk, Ukraine had its fate sealed way earlier.

The question is why Russian had to annex or invade? What was the driving force. I go back again and again to this decent piece, pretty logical.

 
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