Civil war in Ukraine

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Akim

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In monetary terms, yes we have bigger budget.
But in reality our capability is far behind Russian actual capability. Superior industry to back war effort, coupled with commodity and Russian soldier is on average better fighter.
Their aircraft carrier is an example of high technology.
 

here2where

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till the first bird flies into kill zone, it's all verbal diarrhoea.
will revisit then.
 

KurtisBrian

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This war frenzy will only lead to Ukraine getting balkanized and turned into Syria. There is nothing to gain here.
Russia is huge, mostly empty and being underutilized. Russians are now too few. Need to gather together to be vibrant. India, China, Pakistan, Africa... are all so crowded and drying up. People need to move. Even the undead whites who infested and looted Europe want to flee to plunder what others created and made in North America.

If YOU were puppet master and controlling a rigged game which of the two nations, Ukraine or Russia, would YOU break into pieces?
 

Kumaoni

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Very good post by someone on r/IndianDefense

Ranting on Ukraine. Another perspective.

There is lot of things being written about Ukraine (on Reddit), written primarily from an US perspective. Not to blame them, but most of the writings and narratives are manufactured and controlled by US media. Lots of the remnants of the Trump impeachment and Bob Mueller evidences are played out in these posts. Just want to give an opposite view, more realistic view. Hope this helps inform.

​

**Putin wants Ukraine:**

Now, why would Putin want to have a border with EU? Does it make any sense? No.

Putin wants, and even NATO (pre-2008), wanted or liked Ukraine to be the buffer state. Keep the two poles in the region apart.

People thinking Putin will attack and occupy whole Ukraine are BSing. Putin may look at the Russian side of Ukraine, that is a possibility. (See next few points.)

​

**Ukraine is Pro-Europe:**

It is also pro-Russia. Confusing? This is due to a big ethnic divide in Ukraine that runs deep. [Look here.](https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ESOkHPZr_0g/VI_OD5-S9iI/AAAAAAAABCA/QfFbC2NPj1U/s1600/c_52eae773daa9f.jpg). Generally, western Ukraine is pro-Europe, and eastern Ukraine is pro-Russia. This is generally based on the ethnicities and the language.

​

**NATO’s offer:**

Things were good until 2008 when NATO declared they would allow Georgia and Ukraine in to NATO. What is befuddling is why does NATO want a border with Russia? It gives them no strategic advantage, or even makes sense for them to incorporate Ukraine into NATO. If it was so important, wouldn’t they have already done it especially with “Ukraine is pro-Europe” argument? Why delay? Because, it doesn’t make sense. It was a gross miscalculation (if I may say so), just leave Russia as it is (just like the German Admiral said so.)

But this “offer” triggered few events. Georgia started getting fancy and were beaten to pulp by the Russians in 2012(?). NATO did nothing to stop Russia from beating them to pulp. If Georgia is so important, wouldn’t NATO have intervened? (Though it makes sense as Georgia was not in NATO already.)

It also set up an enthusiastic response from Ukraine’s pro-Europe population and political parties.

​

**Pro-Europe “revolution”**

Ukraine was ‘destined’ for NATO membership post-2008 declaration, however the President Yanukovych who was negotiating with NATO, went a completely opposite way when Russia offered him a better deal. This was probably corruption. Pro-Europe parties were livid, and started the ‘revolution.’ Yanukovych fled the country.

​

**Russia attacked Crimea:**

Russia did not attack Crimea, but Russia had a prior presence in Crimea due to its Navy and Army bases (at Sevastopol). Russia pulled in their reinforcements disguised as “medical aid” and secured logistics for long haul. Because of their prior presence, Russians could not be budged, and obviously will not.

Another important factor of “volunteers”, “militia” is that Crimea fall right in the middle of the Pro-Russian ethnic region. I don’t know if locals supported Russian army as militia, but they definiitely did not have incentive to fight them.

​

**The Attack**

Capturing Ukraine does not make sense for Russia though capturing the eastern Ukraine does make sense. The areas where it is pro-Russia.

​

**Why now?**

* Oil is at new highs.
* Putin needs a win.
* It can be done.
* US won’t put any boots on ground with Biden and Afghan aftermath. And, Covid ballooning the deficits.
* Europe continues to suffer economically.
* Without US’ support both military and financially, NATO is not going to go in to help Ukraine.
* It is winter, and shutting off the gas has maximum leverage on Europe.
* Russia needs to sort out these issues before it focusses on the next big things: Arctic and Eastern Pacific seaboard.
* And, you can’t capture land using a navy. Warships can stand-off but move has to be land-based (I think)

​

**Interesting things:**

US and Europe can still do lot of damage especially with SWIFT, sanctions etc. Guess, who will be watching these counter-attacks closely? China, as it eyes Taiwan.

​

Just sharing some thoughts. Thanks.

Link:
 
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JBH22

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Their aircraft carrier is an example of high technology.
Russia was never a naval power, it is a continental power.
But with regards to their tech, we used their missile boat in 1971 with good effect crippled enemy logistic.
The T-55 also gave a good account vs Patton tanks. So yes till now we fought and won mostly using Russian weapons.
 

Akim

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Russia was never a naval power, it is a continental power.
But with regards to their tech, we used their missile boat in 1971 with good effect crippled enemy logistic.
The T-55 also gave a good account vs Patton tanks. So yes till now we fought and won mostly using Russian weapons.
Your problem is that you do not know how to separate the USSR and Russia.
 

Kumaoni

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Russia was never a naval power, it is a continental power.
But with regards to their tech, we used their missile boat in 1971 with good effect crippled enemy logistic.
The T-55 also gave a good account vs Patton tanks. So yes till now we fought and won mostly using Russian weapons.
When did we induct the T-55? I though we mauled Pakistani Pattons using Vintage Sherman’s and Centurions.
 

Hari Sud

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Ukrainian Civil War, a New Cold War which has Heated up.

Western propaganda including print and electronic media is busy blaming Russia for this Ukraine border tension without telling that it is US and NATO utmost desire to reach the Russian border in Europe. It is the West which offered rose garden to the Ukraine public and a few of their unknown leaders, post 1991 breakup, were paid to break out of Russia. This was an unwelcome strategic move for NATO and US. That was a cue for Russia to exert itself. The key question is …… Why does US/NATO have get close to the Russian border. That is how peace is disturbed.

With Putin’s arrival and Yeltsin & Gorbachev both dead and buried, and NATO offering membership to all Russian satellite states in Eastern Europe, trouble was not far. In fact it was near. US was busy fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, it offered Putin/Russia a chance to grab Crimea back from the Ukraine which in-fact it had transferred to Ukrainian administrative control only 70 years earlier. The border areas of areas of Ukraine next to Russia are all Russian speaking hence they wished to stay with Russia instead uncertain propaganda from the West, hence these were instigated to revolt. Trouble started…….

This is a typical civil war situation. Repeatedly the Ukrainians appointed pro-west leaders to run the country, which inflamed the Russians. The Ukrainians forget that it was the sacrifice of Russian soldiers during the WW2 that Ukraine was freed from murderous Nazi yoke. How could the Ukrainians ever forget those sacrifices.

Moreover Ukrainians people are Orthodox Christians following the directions of a different Pope, same as the Russian people hence Ukrainians and Russians have a lot in common than the West.

Hence these battles are to be cooled off. The NATO has to go back to their homes and turn off the propaganda. The Russians have to withdraw their troops and let Russian speaking people in Ukrainian border simmer down and stay wherever they are.
 

Akim

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Ukrainian Civil War, a New Cold War which has Heated up.

Western propaganda including print and electronic media is busy blaming Russia for this Ukraine border tension without telling that it is US and NATO utmost desire to reach the Russian border in Europe. It is the West which offered rose garden to the Ukraine public and a few of their unknown leaders, post 1991 breakup, were paid to break out of Russia. This was an unwelcome strategic move for NATO and US. That was a cue for Russia to exert itself. The key question is …… Why does US/NATO have get close to the Russian border. That is how peace is disturbed.

With Putin’s arrival and Yeltsin & Gorbachev both dead and buried, and NATO offering membership to all Russian satellite states in Eastern Europe, trouble was not far. In fact it was near. US was busy fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, it offered Putin/Russia a chance to grab Crimea back from the Ukraine which in-fact it had transferred to Ukrainian administrative control only 70 years earlier. The border areas of areas of Ukraine next to Russia are all Russian speaking hence they wished to stay with Russia instead uncertain propaganda from the West, hence these were instigated to revolt. Trouble started…….

This is a typical civil war situation. Repeatedly the Ukrainians appointed pro-west leaders to run the country, which inflamed the Russians. The Ukrainians forget that it was the sacrifice of Russian soldiers during the WW2 that Ukraine was freed from murderous Nazi yoke. How could the Ukrainians ever forget those sacrifices.

Moreover Ukrainians people are Orthodox Christians following the directions of a different Pope, same as the Russian people hence Ukrainians and Russians have a lot in common than the West.

Hence these battles are to be cooled off. The NATO has to go back to their homes and turn off the propaganda. The Russians have to withdraw their troops and let Russian speaking people in Ukrainian border simmer down and stay wherever they are.
You know how quickly you forget about the "fraternal peoples" - when a package of "Grad" arrives at you.
 

Super Flanker

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NATO sends reinforcements and U.S. puts troops on alert as Ukraine tensions rise

NATO said on Monday it was putting forces on standby and reinforcing eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets, in what Russia denounced as Western "hysteria" in response to its build-up of troops on the Ukraine border.

The U.S. Department of Defense in Washington said about 8,500 American troops were put on heightened alert and were awaiting orders to deploy to the region, should Russia invade Ukraine.

Tensions are high after Russia massed an estimated 100,000 troops in reach of its neighbour's border, surrounding Ukraine with forces from the north, east and south.

Russia denies planning an invasion and Moscow is citing the Western response as evidence that Russia is the target, not the instigator, of aggression.

President Joe Biden, pushing for transatlantic unity, held an 80-minute secure video call with a number of European leaders on Monday from the White House Situation Room to discuss the Ukraine crisis.

Biden told reporters "I had a very, very, very good meeting" with the Europeans, which included the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Poland. He said there was "total unanimity."

A White House statement said the leaders "discussed their joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including preparations to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia for such actions as well as to reinforce security on NATO's eastern flank."

Welcoming a series of deployments announced by alliance members in recent days, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier said NATO would take "all necessary measures"


"We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment, including through strengthening our collective defence," Stoltenberg said in a statement.

He told a news conference that the enhanced presence on NATO's eastern flank could also include the deployment of battlegroups in the southeast of the alliance.

So far, NATO has about 4,000 troops in multinational battalions in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, backed by tanks, air defences and intelligence and surveillance units.

U.S. officials said the Pentagon was finalising efforts to identify specific units that it could deploy to NATO's eastern flank.

One of the officials said up to 5,000 could be deployed, while a NATO diplomat said Washington was considering gradually transferring some troops stationed in western Europe to eastern Europe in the coming weeks.

Denmark, Spain, France and the Netherlands were all planning or considering sending troops, planes or ships to eastern Europe, NATO said. Ukraine shares borders with four NATO countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

A Polish official said Warsaw would draw the line at sending troops to Ukraine.

GROWING TENSIONS

As tensions grow, Britain said it was withdrawing some staff and dependents from its embassy in Ukraine, a day after the United States https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-puppet-regime-ukraine-uk-minister-2022-01-23 said it was ordering diplomats' family members to leave. U.S. diplomats are being allowed to leave voluntarily.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the West of "hysteria" and putting out information "laced with lies".

"As for specific actions, we see statements by the North Atlantic Alliance about reinforcement, pulling forces and resources to the eastern flank. All this leads to the fact that tensions are growing," he said.

"This is not happening because of what we, Russia, are doing. This is all happening because of what NATO and the U.S. are doing and due to the information they are spreading."

Global stock markets skidded as the prospect of a Russian attack quashed demand for riskier assets such as bitcoin, and bolstered the dollar and oil. The rouble hit a 14-month low against the dollar, and Russian stocks and bonds tumbled.

Russia has used its troop build-up to draw the West into discussions after presenting demands to redraw Europe's security map. It wants https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russias-putin-so-focused-ukraine-2021-12-15 NATO never to admit Ukraine and to pull back troops and weapons from former Communist countries in eastern Europe that joined it after the Cold War.

Washington says those demands are non-starters but it is ready to discuss other ideas on arms control, missile deployments and confidence-building measures.

Russia is awaiting a written U.S. response this week after talks last Friday - the fourth round this month - produced no breakthrough.

'PAINFUL, VIOLENT AND BLOODY'

Asked whether he thought an invasion was imminent, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told broadcasters that intelligence was "pretty gloomy on this point" but that "sense can still prevail."

He repeated Western warnings that invading Ukraine would be "a painful, violent and bloody business" for Russia.

The United States and the European Union, wary of Russia's intentions since it seized Crimea and backed separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine in 2014, have told Russia it will face crippling penalties if it attacks again.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels warned Russia it would face "massive" consequences, but are divided over how tough to be on Moscow and did not say what the consequences might be.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told EU President Charles Michel, who was also on the call with Biden, that it was important for Kyiv that the EU showed unity.

"Ukraine will not fall for provocations, and together with its partners, will remain calm and restrained," his office said.

The European Commission, the EU executive body, proposed a 1.2-billion euro ($1.36-billion) financial aid package to help Ukraine mitigate the effects of the conflict.

A Russian delegation source said political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany would meet in Paris on Wednesday for talks on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, in which some 15,000 people have been killed since 2014. Previous efforts have failed to yield any breakthrough.

 

Super Flanker

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1. Russia today is still 60-70% of what the Soviet Union was and are capable of punching above their weight.

They lead the world currently in operationalising hypersonic weaponry and have the second highest nuclear (SSBN/ SSN) capability in the world.

2. Russian military has been constantly engaged in combat operations in Syria, Yemen and in the Balkans.

Ukranians by comparison got taken by miners and drunks with the help of little green men.

3. As stated before Ukraine has no protection under the NATO charter, Article 5 of the Washington Treaty only provides mutual defence to all NATO members which Ukraine is not.

Any USN SSGN/ CBG trying to intervene will get swarmed by thousands of Iskander, Zircon, P 800 missiles from land based batteries leading to a collapse of the EU theatre defence strategy.

3. Russians are experts at hiding casualties and propaganda control. They wrote the book on this.

4. Russia like US has zones of influence. What NATO is trying to do here is equivalent to China overthrowing Mexico's government with a pro Chinese anti US leadership.

The same thing was attempted by China with Nepal in India's context.

5. Everyone knows Ukraine is being egged on to get thrashed by Russia so that sanctions can cripple oil / mineral supplies thus collapsing supply chains and spreading chaos in downstream countries like India and China.

The only winning movie is not to play by NATO's gameplan here.



P.S: I still haven't mentioned China doing a sneak attack on Taiwan, effectively splitting five eyes countries forces between two fronts.
Russia hides casualties? Russians are experts at hiding Casualties? Seriously?
 

Super Flanker

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Combat experience is determined by the present generation. The past can only be remembered and proud.
I don't remember a major war between Pakistan and India in 2019.
He is not talking about any war in the year 2019,he is talking about Airstrikes which were conducted inside Pakistan on 2019 26th February and also the skirmish which took place the next day between PAF and IAF on 27th February of 2019. Please refer to this for more detail.
 

JBH22

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Your problem is that you do not know how to separate the USSR and Russia.
I'm just referring to your insinuation that their tech is so poor that it can be easily discounted.
Just to tell you the Su 34 was developed when this country was going through a shitty phase. Us when we were going through crisis in 1990s most of defence R&D dried up.
It also shows you that some people in that society was always concerned and focused for their country. What Ukrainians did was selling everything at discount value.
 

Akim

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He is not talking about any war in the year 2019,he is talking about Airstrikes which were conducted inside Pakistan on 2019 26th February and also the skirmish which took place the next day between PAF and IAF on 27th February of 2019. Please refer to this for more detail.
I remember this conflict. But this is not combat experience. Combat experience is when brigades and divisions deploy in battle formations and there is fire contact with the enemy. This experience is not inherited. This is a psychological turning point and it is acquired personally.
I'm just referring to your insinuation that their tech is so poor that it can be easily discounted.
Just to tell you the Su 34 was developed when this country was going through a shitty phase. Us when we were going through crisis in 1990s most of defence R&D dried up.
It also shows you that some people in that society was always concerned and focused for their country. What Ukrainians did was selling everything at discount value.
Yes, Ukraine was actively disarming, and in 2014 we regretted it.
Russian developments have roots in the USSR. After that, they cooperated well with the West and borrowed a lot, but everything has its time.
 

Super Flanker

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I remember this conflict. But this is not combat experience. Combat experience is when brigades and divisions deploy in battle formations and there is fire contact with the enemy. This experience is not inherited. This is a psychological turning point and it is acquired personally.

Yes, Ukraine was actively disarming, and in 2014 we regretted it.
Russian developments have roots in the USSR. After that, they cooperated well with the West and borrowed a lot, but everything has its time.
Still it was in Some way or the other Combat Experience for our Airforce. We learned a lot about tactics which were employed by PAF Against IAF that day. We learnt about the shortcomings by each Airforce as well and Improved on it. We learned many things and did get combat Experience Atleast in some way, well maybe the Definition maybe Different According to you I guess.
 
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