Civil war in Ukraine

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KurtisBrian

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Russian fertility rate has risen from a low of 1.2 to 1.8 now.. They are OK technologically.. and do very well in niche areas.. Russians will be fine..
collapsing population. selling off technology because they have nothing else to sell. Arming nations with larger populations who are too crowded or have HUGE water problems. Doesn't look like they will be fine.
 

Flash12

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also wondered same thing , go for peace with rival China while fucking with poor Russia.

i think US genuinely wanted good relations with Russia at one point.

i mean look at this cringe 'reset button' - supposed to mean 'reset US-Russia' relations .

my best guess is the Syrian war . US is trying to punish Russia for opposing it.

US punishs everyone who opposes them.
 

Flash12

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As Putin once said, if fight is inevitable throw in the first punch. Ukraine could send in some artillery strike and air strike at the point where Russian are gathering its forces.
What do you think? Can they inflict significant casualty in a conventional fight. Or they will prefer trap you with partisan war, sapping Russian forces morale and impacting Russian president popularity.
Yes, all of this. And we DONT want Ukraine. I think the one who wants Russia invading Ukraine is West )))
 

blackjack

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Shtora's dazzler only works against guidance involving coded IR emissions which neither Javelin or NLAW use. Javelin is a fire and forget missile with a passive thermal imaging seeker while NLAW is an inertial guidance with terminal proximity fuzing. More modern wire-guided and beam riding ATGMs are also quite resistant to Shtora-1s dazzling technology. Overall they have designed a projectile APS system in the late 70s before it was cool for the jews to do the same from their experiences with lebanon, I think using the Arena system APS with projectiles will do the job. Also I heard that T-90s have gotten upgrade to T-14 standards which means afghanite system can be used.

Ukraine doesn't have that much of either, however. Most of its ATGM stocks are cold war legacy crap that are either getting or have already expired. I suspect much of the anecdotes about impenetrable Russian missile shields are really just the missiles showing their life.

Doesn't really matter though. Closing in with the tanks leading the charge is but one of the available tactics in the Russian repertoir. The Russians have near complete firepower mastery of the Ukrainians at this point. At virtually any range they can out observe, and out range the Ukrainians. They could just as easily just sit and have the heavy artillery pound their targets to dust while micro UAVs comb through the countryside looking for suitable catch basins for 152 mm shells and they can use the recon information to relay back to their artillery systems of launching tank mines in the air or rockets on where drone spotted additional targets before going kamikaze. Or let the RuAF have their fun and have their jets painted with stars all over. They are that spoiled for choices.

For those interested on what their artillery systems can do I suggest reading this page and finishing off the rest (1685) Russian MRLS: Grad, Uragan, Smerch, Tornado-G/S - Page 8 (russiadefence.net) I dont even think the most advanced artillery systems that NATO has to offer to Ukraine will still not help them for shit and the shit they are giving them is not even their best anyways. I swear out of the shit I gave Akim I am not being full of shit when I say feel sorry for him/her because even I would not want to face any of the shit russias military news reports.

I remember seeing saakashvili crying and running for cover when there were just Russian aircrafts flying above his head so this gives me an easy solution. Send a conventional warhead on a iskander or kalibr missile to a Ukrainian government building for politicians. Let them piss their pants a little bit where russians threaten they will be next via satellite info. Immediately want to contact the Kremlin that it was a bad idea to join NATO and have weapons confiscated. Russia will do the Ukrainian people a favor without targeting them and get rid of the same people that made their big country more poor than kosovo which I still don't understand how the fuck that happens.

Ukraine you have my prayers.
 

The Shrike

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Are the Russian moves actually going to end up with an invasion, to me it seems like coercive diplomacy, with Russia trying to make a few gains(like preventing ex-soviet nations from joining NATO or something like that?)
Yup "coercive diplomacy" or "escalate to de escalate" amongst other names. Something the Chinese have are trying against us and what we have most failed at using against Pakistan.
 

SwordOfDarkness

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Is it a wise idea for Putin to attack?
Hitting first works in a bar fight. How does it hold up in wars?

These are the ones I am aware of. You all probably know lots more and might disagree with who I thought did the attacking or even who lost.

World War wars...Germany attacked...lost.
World War wars...Japan attacked....lost.
Napoleonic Wars...France attacked...lost.
Vietnam, who was the attacker? France? S/N Viet? ...US/France lost
Korea who was the attacker...stalemate.
China/Vietnam war...China attacked....lost maybe
Gulf War...Saddam attacked..lost.
Georgian conflict...Georgians attacked...lost.
Israeli conflicts...attackers lost.
Iran-Iraq war...Iraq attacked...didn't win.
Afghanistan...USA attacked...lost
Afghanistan...USSR attacked...lost

Russian Civil War...I don't know who attacked but in Dr. Zhivago the soldiers attack protestors first. true???...whites lost

China Civil War...I don't know who attacked...Nationalists lost

Russian greatness usually involved being attacked. defending

Seems that the aggressors do not fare very well. Might be some truth to those comments an attack will be the end of Russia.
A good first strike can be devastating. Israel demolished the arab states in a single surprise airstrike, that was launched en masse and took out all arab air assets.

At the same time,, a poorly done strike can mean death, as it gives a convenient excuse for other side to invade you. For eg- 1971 war, pakistan did airstrikes into India as the first move- Strikes were big failure and caused 0 casualties. In retaliation we bombed PAF into submission.


Risky move, but high reward.
 

doreamon

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This is a good article . points out what Russia wants . Its reasoning and counter reasoning by NATO .


This is wht Russia wants

1. Russia wants a guarantee Ukraine can never join NATO

2. Russia wants NATO arms out of Eastern Europe - ban NATO from deploying its weapons and forces in countries in Central and Eastern Europe that joined the alliance after 1997. In effect, that would downgrade membership for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Bulgaria to symbolic status at best.

3. Russia wants a ban on NATO missiles within striking distance

4. Russia wants autonomy for eastern Ukraine - Minsk accords as a path toward deescalation.
 

Akim

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Shtora's dazzler only works against guidance involving coded IR emissions which neither Javelin or NLAW use. Javelin is a fire and forget missile with a passive thermal imaging seeker while NLAW is an inertial guidance with terminal proximity fuzing. More modern wire-guided and beam riding ATGMs are also quite resistant to Shtora-1s dazzling technology. Overall they have designed a projectile APS system in the late 70s before it was cool for the jews to do the same from their experiences with lebanon, I think using the Arena system APS with projectiles will do the job. Also I heard that T-90s have gotten upgrade to T-14 standards which means afghanite system can be used.

Ukraine doesn't have that much of either, however. Most of its ATGM stocks are cold war legacy crap that are either getting or have already expired. I suspect much of the anecdotes about impenetrable Russian missile shields are really just the missiles showing their life.

Doesn't really matter though. Closing in with the tanks leading the charge is but one of the available tactics in the Russian repertoir. The Russians have near complete firepower mastery of the Ukrainians at this point. At virtually any range they can out observe, and out range the Ukrainians. They could just as easily just sit and have the heavy artillery pound their targets to dust while micro UAVs comb through the countryside looking for suitable catch basins for 152 mm shells and they can use the recon information to relay back to their artillery systems of launching tank mines in the air or rockets on where drone spotted additional targets before going kamikaze. Or let the RuAF have their fun and have their jets painted with stars all over. They are that spoiled for choices.

For those interested on what their artillery systems can do I suggest reading this page and finishing off the rest (1685) Russian MRLS: Grad, Uragan, Smerch, Tornado-G/S - Page 8 (russiadefence.net) I dont even think the most advanced artillery systems that NATO has to offer to Ukraine will still not help them for shit and the shit they are giving them is not even their best anyways. I swear out of the shit I gave Akim I am not being full of shit when I say feel sorry for him/her because even I would not want to face any of the shit russias military news reports.

I remember seeing saakashvili crying and running for cover when there were just Russian aircrafts flying above his head so this gives me an easy solution. Send a conventional warhead on a iskander or kalibr missile to a Ukrainian government building for politicians. Let them piss their pants a little bit where russians threaten they will be next via satellite info. Immediately want to contact the Kremlin that it was a bad idea to join NATO and have weapons confiscated. Russia will do the Ukrainian people a favor without targeting them and get rid of the same people that made their big country more poor than kosovo which I still don't understand how the fuck that happens.

Ukraine you have my prayers.
You have crappy analytics.
I once listened to a video lecture by a Russian historian about WW1. In Soviet historiography, this was a "forgotten war", so it is always interesting to learn new facts. After it, the audience asked questions and one of them was about the war with Ukraine in 2014 and the historian proudly said that we defeated the modern army.
Modern. Ha-ha. At that time, we didn’t even have batteries for night vision devices, we didn’t even have bulletproof vests (I then handed over two of my own to the army). There was no one.
Even uniforms and shoes. Canada, Turkey and other countries supplied us with the necessary things, because we could not buy anything. President Yanukovych stole all the money from the reserve.
That's when it was a fragment of the Soviet army.
Now we have everything we need. I have already said that we have hundreds of domestic anti-tank systems and thousands of missiles for them.
And so on throughout the nomenclature.
There are never extra ATGMs and MANPADS, but this does not mean that we are unarmed.
In 2014, we could not even fill the coolers for Igla MANPADS, now even some of them have been upgraded and the kill factor has been increased from 0.65 to 0.8.
Our weapons are no better and no worse than Russian ones, but it is more important that they already exist.
And so in everything. Before the war, we had a few pilots who flew more than 100 hours, now the Lutsk Aircraft Plant does not have time to repair engines.
Until 2014, only battalion-level exercises were conducted in the army, now there are several dozen brigade exercises every year.
Moreover. All brigades have combat experience. At the front, not only seeds click. You make a mistake and you will be killed. 82/120-mm mortars, anti-tank systems and a sniper are actively working there. Remote mining, drone bombing and many other things that shorten life.
 

blackjack

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82/120-mm mortars
This is why I say check Russia's artillery section at Russia defense net, hell it would be fucking funny and shocking for me if you go create an account there(its very hard to get banned over there like it is here dont worry) these wont help because tornado systems and Smerch have longer ranges and why that is a threat is that they can safely from a distance start shelling at a more farther range and lets just say for jokes that the mortars outrange russias their are EW systems like Rtut-bm that cause shells and rockets to blow up from touching their troops KRET completed 2013 state defence order for Rtut-BM (rostec.ru) imagine rockets and artillery already raining down on you but your shit cant reach them because they are too far away. The latest MRLS systems have a 200km range but that is not taking into account that drones can be launched from them giving it even more additional range because they have their own motors flying at 100km an hour hitting targets.

1642834837874.png

1642834892864.png

We already know that Ukraine doesnt have air defenses that can intercept swarms of kamikaze UAVs and you know what they can additional do? reconnaissance of video and infrared footage relaying that data back to their command such as finding out there are more troops, artillery or air defense systems spotted, howitzers spotted, etc.

anti-tank systems and a sniper are actively working there
snipers need to stay hidden and buildings might do but thats assuming iif they are not leveled to ground from artillery systems. projectiles and can deal with ATGMs and RPGs even the afghanite APS is said to intercept KEP rounds.

Remote mining,
Uran-6

1642835278256.png


drone bombing
I am not going to get started with the many systems they have to get you clear idea about it. (1687) microwave - Directed-Energy Weapons | EM, Laser, Sonic, Microwave, Particle-beam etc | - Page 5 (russiadefence.net)

TB2s are pretty big and easier on radar to see for short range air defenses.

pantsir trans.JPG

among other many pics not included which there is size limits of uploading for each post
turkish drone downed for days.png

this country doesnt even have the best pantsir systems and most of their shit is legacy soviet air defenses.

turk cope 5.png


Want ukraine proposes and has received right now is not enough to offer good resistance where they say lets turn back.
 

Jimih

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Do you actually read what I write? We have something to answer.
Unfortunately, the development of 400-mm MLRS is not funded, but there are new missiles for 300-mm MLRS.
Also add to this,

Ukraine also have Uragan (Hurricane), the self-propelled MLRS. Each 16-tube 220mm launcher is capable of concentrating fire on Russian troops at ranges of up to 35km.

 
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