Civil war in Ukraine

[Jimih]

Teaming up against Russia

 

[Flash12]

British Ambassador to Ukraine will tell you what Ukrainian politicians need to do.

 

[Jimih]

That's what I think too, which is why I believe the Eastern Invasion is the more likely path. They'll most definitely stop at the river, with the exceptions of those heading for Kyiv. Seizing all of Ukraine would require a very large force to control the population plus to guard the borders with NATO countries.

Another risky path would be if they advanced on Kyiv much far west from South-West Belarus instead of the South East. But it does have its advantages in that they will be able to bypass both the Pripet marshes and the Chernobyl area.

I have this expectation btw,

We will have the officialization of Yalta conference 2.0 and I assume it has already happened and we will get a nice staged “official” Yalta 2.0, where US and Russia, perhaps also UK will meet for some days and make some nice looking conferences, and then present what has been decided over the last 2 years in secret conferences of those in power behind the curtains in a certain hotel in Moscow.

What I fear?

If the war would explode from Ukraine to central European countries, Europe will very fast become the epicentre of a Russian blitzkrieg.

 

[Marliii]

British Ambassador to Ukraine will tell you what Ukrainian politicians need to do.

What's the talk in russia about all this.at first I thought this was just NATO showing its casual terror but this is now getting serious.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

If the war would explode from Ukraine to central European countries, Europe will very fast become the epicentre of a Russian blitzkrieg.

This is absolutely not going to happen. Russia is not even going to care about Western Ukraine, I don't think, leave alone progressing towards the rest of Europe.

 

[Flash12]

What's the talk in russia about all this.at first I thought this was just NATO showing its casual terror but this is now getting serious.

There will be nothing serious unless Ukrainian troops start attacking Donbass. Otherwise, all this lies in the Western media in Russia have already become accustomed to.

 

[Marliii]

There will be nothing serious unless Ukrainian troops start attacking Donbass. Otherwise, all this lies in the Western media in Russia have already become accustomed to.

Donbass is in Ukraine right?

 

[mist_consecutive]

Wait, I was underestimating the Ukrainian military.

It is in fact huge, especially army is pretty well equipped and has 700+ usable tanks (T-80 + T-72), 1000+ obsolete tanks in reserve (T-64s), 3000+ APCs, complimented with a huge amount of artillery, 800+ SPH, 900+ tube artillery, as well as a pretty good collection of short-range SAMs.

Their weak links are Airforce, having some 70ish Mig-29s + Su-27s, which can still work as point-defense fighters.

Even without the help of NATO, Ukraine can fend itself pretty well. In fact, Russia has no chance of making any significant gain if it does not commit 100% of its armed forces.

@Akim am I correct? Sorry if the data is wrong, I just picked it up from Wikipedia.

 

[Marliii]

Wait, I was underestimating the Ukrainian military.

It is in fact huge, especially army is pretty well equipped and has 700+ usable tanks (T-80 + T-72), 1000+ obsolete tanks in reserve (T-64s), 3000+ APCs, complimented with a huge amount of artillery, 800+ SPH, 900+ tube artillery, as well as a pretty good collection of short-range SAMs.

Their weak links are Airforce, having some 70ish Mig-29s + Su-27s, which can still work as point-defense fighters.

Even without the help of NATO, Ukraine can fend itself pretty well. In fact, Russia has no chance of making any significant gain if it does not commit 100% of its armed forces.

@Akim am I correct? Sorry if the data is wrong, I just picked it up from Wikipedia.

They are an okayish but against russia a big no.even certain simulations showed them to be roles up pretty quickly

 

[Akim]

Donbass is in Ukraine right?

Russia thinks otherwise.
I would advise her to believe the Russian respondent. Apart from Moscow, no one sees the concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass.

 

[Flash12]

Donbass is in Ukraine right?

"According to the documents" so far yes, in fact - no.

 

[mist_consecutive]

They are an okayish but against russia a big no.even certain simulations showed them to be roles up pretty quickly

If Russia deploys like, 100% of its ground forces, then probably yes. Russia can use its air force to batter down Ukrainian but NATO will probably help them with air denial.
Pretty quickly, no, at least 1 month of intense offensive minimum.

How much is Russia willing to commit to capturing Ukraine with its declining economy? The attacker is always at a disadvantage when the enemy has dug in, like in the case of Ukraine.

 

[Marliii]

If Russia deploys like, 100% of its ground forces, then probably yes. Russia can use its air force to batter down Ukrainian but NATO will probably help them with air denial.
Pretty quickly, no, at least 1 month of intense offensive minimum.

How much is Russia willing to commit to capturing Ukraine with its declining economy? The attacker is always at a disadvantage when the enemy has dug in, like in the case of Ukraine.

Didn't believe in the nato version of the events but even after a month the after the troops are still there.russians may be using pressure tactics to get things what they want from NATO?

 

[Flash12]

Russia thinks otherwise.
I would advise her to believe the Russian respondent. Apart from Moscow, no one sees the concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass.

When something is beneficial to the West, it "can not see".

 

[Akim]

Wait, I was underestimating the Ukrainian military.

It is in fact huge, especially army is pretty well equipped and has 700+ usable tanks (T-80 + T-72), 1000+ obsolete tanks in reserve (T-64s), 3000+ APCs, complimented with a huge amount of artillery, 800+ SPH, 900+ tube artillery, as well as a pretty good collection of short-range SAMs.

Their weak links are Airforce, having some 70ish Mig-29s + Su-27s, which can still work as point-defense fighters.

Even without the help of NATO, Ukraine can fend itself pretty well. In fact, Russia has no chance of making any significant gain if it does not commit 100% of its armed forces.

@Akim am I correct? Sorry if the data is wrong, I just picked it up from Wikipedia.

T-64 is better than T-72. He is our main tank.
I already wrote above that we are not defenseless.

 

[Knowitall]

Wait, I was underestimating the Ukrainian military.

It is in fact huge, especially army is pretty well equipped and has 700+ usable tanks (T-80 + T-72), 1000+ obsolete tanks in reserve (T-64s), 3000+ APCs, complimented with a huge amount of artillery, 800+ SPH, 900+ tube artillery, as well as a pretty good collection of short-range SAMs.

Their weak links are Airforce, having some 70ish Mig-29s + Su-27s, which can still work as point-defense fighters.

Even without the help of NATO, Ukraine can fend itself pretty well. In fact, Russia has no chance of making any significant gain if it does not commit 100% of its armed forces.

@Akim am I correct? Sorry if the data is wrong, I just picked it up from Wikipedia.

Raw numbers like always provide a very different picture. To have a tank is one thing but to have a operational tank is a completely different thing.

Those 1000s of T-64 you talk about having been rotting for decades due to lack of parts outdated along with outdated and damaged equipment. In fact during the invasion of Crimea Ukraine did not even try to activate these units. These are basically skeleton units being used to inflate the number on papers.

Their artillery and AD systems are okish but with a small and dwindling Airforce your armor is just cannon fodder as we have seen in Iraq Egypt etc.

A better indicator would be to look at the Donbass conflict. At the height of the conflict there were days when Ukraine would lose around 400 soldiers in a matter of hours to Russian drone led artillery strikes.

Similarly during 2014 Three Ukrainian army brigades gathered at the encampment alongside a contingent of border guards. The 24th Mechanized Brigade, 72nd Mechanized Brigade and 79th Air-Mobile Brigade together possessed T-64 tanks, BMP fighting vehicles, engineering vehicles and trucks. Soon enough Russian drones begun to spy on them followed by them being jammed by the Russians. Soon enough the Russians launched a massive rocket artillery attack which pretty much destroyed all the major equipment. Infact even today the majority of Ukrainian forces are located in the donbass region.

 

[Akim]

The army - 250 thousand, in the Donbass - 40 thousand, by the rotation method for six months.
All tanks are combat ready and 60% modernized. Units that have ATGMs have been updated by 85%.

 

[Love Charger]

The army - 250 thousand, in the Donbass - 40 thousand, by the rotation method for six months.
All tanks are combat ready and 60% modernized. Units that have ATGMs have been updated by 85%.

Ukraineis ready for russian armoured thrusts i guess

 

[mokoman]

i normally side with Russia , Russians always seem more reasonable and pragmatic .

but on this i rather see Ukraine come out on top.

maybe Putin has valid reasons , what with US trying to ruin it and etc etc . but still , big guy goliath vs david and all that.

hopefully all this is a ruse , Putin will scare some sense into retard democrats , US-Russia can become bhai bhai ... , its only outcome that will be beneficial to India.

And maybe Ukraine will accept crimea loss , obviously unfair but what choice is there ? , i mean not really same thing on any level but it took India only 20 years to get over aksai chin loss to china .

 

[Jimih]

i normally side with Russia , Russians always seem more reasonable and pragmatic .

but on this i rather see Ukraine come out on top.

maybe Putin has valid reasons , what with US trying to ruin it and etc etc . but still , big guy goliath vs david and all that.

hopefully all this is a ruse , Putin will scare some sense into retard democrats , US-Russia can become bhai bhai ... , its only outcome that will be beneficial to India.

And maybe Ukraine will accept crimea loss , obviously unfair but what choice is there ? , i mean not really same thing on any level but it took India only 20 years to get over aksai chin loss to china .

Ukraine will only and only see peace when the comedian Zelensky is removed from power. He is the one who is responsible for the current mess.