Civil war in Ukraine

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The Shrike

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came to this thread to post my understanding of the situation, most of it is covered in this interview from a US perspective.
Thanks for posting.

This video about Nord stream 2 will fill some more gaps in understanding about the motivations behind these moves.


Now will have to find info on european economic motivations (beyond the rhetoric) to get the full picture.
This is a good one:
 

Akim

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The majority of people seem to believe that there will be two possible paths Russia will take. An invasion from the East up till the Dnieper River, or from the West through Belarus.

However, there's a third way too, if they use the Black Sea coast. They could seize land from Russia to Transnistria- to 1) secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and 2) block Ukraine's access to sea.

Seizing Odessa via Transnistria, Crimea and the sea would pretty much ensure Russia complete control of Ukraine's coastline.
Landing in the winter is unlikely.
 

Knowitall

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The majority of people seem to believe that there will be two possible paths Russia will take. An invasion from the East up till the Dnieper River, or from the West through Belarus.

However, there's a third way too, if they use the Black Sea coast. They could seize land from Russia to Transnistria- to 1) secure freshwater supplies for Crimea and 2) block Ukraine's access to sea.

Seizing Odessa via Transnistria, Crimea and the sea would pretty much ensure Russia complete control of Ukraine's coastline.
Actually both the 1st 2nd and 3rd option will most probably happen simultaneously to stretch Ukrainian forces as much as possible.


Russian amphibious ships are already deployed so a naval invasion will mostly take place alongside the ground invasion rather than being a standalone one.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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Yes.. they would like to seize upto Moldova, and block Ukraine access to sea..
Actually both the 1st 2nd and 3rd option will most probably happen simultaneously to stretch Ukrainian forces as much as possible.


Russian amphibious ships are already deployed so a naval invasion will mostly take place alongside the ground invasion rather than being a standalone one.
As far as the ground invasions are concerned, some Ukrainian experts are suggesting that the Dnieper will be a good enough barrier to stop the advance of the Russians. But Russia can avoid having to cross the Dnieper if they start marching on Kyiv from the south-east of Belarus.
 

Knowitall

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Maybe, but it's not completely impossible.
Highly probable infact.

The Ukrainian fleet is old and rusty composed of small gunboats while the Russian black sea fleet was sort of reborn post the 2014 crimean annexation.

They are now equipped with kilo class submarines and a number of modern frigates and corvettes all armed with Kaliber cruise missiles.

With winter setting transportation of heavy armor should not be an issue. Plus a successful invasion will result in the bulk of Ukrainian forces being encircled if the Russians also strike from Belarus.
 

Knowitall

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As far as the ground invasions are concerned, some Ukrainian experts are suggesting that the Dnieper will be a good enough barrier to stop the advance of the Russians. But Russia can avoid having to cross the Dnieper if they start marching on Kyiv from the south-east of Belarus.
Dnieper is as for as they need to go.

Anything beyond that and you start facing stiff resistance from the local populace while raising alarm bells in NATO at the same time.
 

warmachine541

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Counter argument: Biden's approval rating is at record lows, in American politics there is nothing like a war to raise your popularity.
why would they fight a war where they can't win.

Russia knows they can't do shit. US and NATO will just watch unless they have some covert ops in play.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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Oh sure. But the coast is protected from landings. Here they can block sea routes.
That's what Ukrainians are saying, but the biggest point is that the Ukrainian Navy is not really the most credible in the world. Russian border artillery already have more than half of Ukraine in its reach. The Black sea fleet had blocked Ukrainians to even leave their own military port. Ukrainian sailors are POW in their own Navy base at Sevastopol as we speak.

It doesn't look as optimistic as you seem to think.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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❗❗❗

Latest chatter:

The seventh military transport aircraft C-17A Globemaster III of the Royal Air Force of Britain left the Brize Norton airbase and headed for Kiev.

On board are NLAW anti-tank missile systems, more than 1,300 of which have already been transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Also:

1642583830601.png


US Navy P8 Poseidon AE6834 active off the coast of Crimea.
 

Flash12

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I think it's more than that.

Russia right now faces 2 choices don't fight and see the gradual integration of Ukraine into EU and nato all while they improve their defences or invade Ukrainie while they are still weak and face possible insurgency and sanctions.

This is a lose lose situation for Russia and and the US has them right where it wants them to be.

From the Russian pov the option of invasion seems the best one because sanctions is something the Russians belive they can handle at this point.
So from the Russian pov the option of invasion seems NOT the best not because of sanctions but because of the possibility of large victims, refugees, large financial costs. Can anyone say what profit Russia will get in return for this that will cover all this?
 

Akim

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That's what Ukrainians are saying, but the biggest point is that the Ukrainian Navy is not really the most credible in the world. Russian border artillery already have more than half of Ukraine in its reach. The Black sea fleet had blocked Ukrainians to even leave their own military port. Ukrainian sailors are POW in their own Navy base at Sevastopol as we speak.

It doesn't look as optimistic as you seem to think.
I also said that the fleet is very weak. But no one is going to block the coast with ships. There are anti-ship missiles of the near zone, MLRS 220-mm, attack aircraft. howitzers and naval mines. With rapid response teams, this is quite enough.
 

Optimistic Nihilist

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Dnieper is as for as they need to go.

Anything beyond that and you start facing stiff resistance from the local populace while raising alarm bells in NATO at the same time.
That's what I think too, which is why I believe the Eastern Invasion is the more likely path. They'll most definitely stop at the river, with the exceptions of those heading for Kyiv. Seizing all of Ukraine would require a very large force to control the population plus to guard the borders with NATO countries.

Another risky path would be if they advanced on Kyiv much far west from South-West Belarus instead of the South East. But it does have its advantages in that they will be able to bypass both the Pripet marshes and the Chernobyl area.
 

ezsasa

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This is a good one:
these idiots should not allowed to unite into a single country, they will revive colonialism (under a different formulation), since the fundamentals of "lack of resources" haven't changed in past 500 years within europe, lack of resources is what forced them to find colonies in rest of the world in the first place.

their fundamentalist way of looking at things hasn't changed either, these days they are fundamentalist in the name of racism, climate change, globalisation etc etc. a few centuries ago they were findamentalist in the name of church, royalty, "god given right for white men to rule", etc etc.
 
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Optimistic Nihilist

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I also said that the fleet is very weak. But no one is going to block the coast with ships. There are anti-ship missiles of the near zone, MLRS 220-mm, attack aircraft. howitzers and naval mines. With rapid response teams, this is quite enough.
Very good, but considering how almost the entire Ukrainian Navy defected back in 2014 when a similar situation was happening, I don't know how much confidence they instill now.

For your sake though, I hope you're right.
 

Akim

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Very good, but considering how almost the entire Ukrainian Navy defected back in 2014 when a similar situation was happening, I don't know how much confidence they instill now.

For your sake though, I hope you're right.
The fleet did not desert
It's a long story how the "brotherly people" were stabbed in the back during a political confrontation. Briefly speaking. The best came out of the peninsula.
The navy is made up of ships, coast guards, marines, and naval aviation. Everything except the ships has been restored.
 
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