Civil war in Ukraine

[doreamon]

- west unwilling to get involved directly . or showing less commitment .
- russia can finish much ukrain formation with in a hour with combined land , sea , air attack . Russia has already deployed more fighter jets than total ukrain airforce
- Some ukrainian already know this and saying they ll start popular resistance against occupier once all that over .

Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them (Published 2021)

If Russia opts for an invasion, Ukraine’s generals say, they would have no hope of repelling it without a major infusion of military help from the West.

www.nytimes.com

then a economic sanction ll follow . along with a proxy war against russia with western help . can russia effort that ..

 

[Akim]

- west unwilling to get involved directly . or showing less commitment .
- russia can finish much ukrain formation with in a hour with combined land , sea , air attack . Russia has already deployed more fighter jets than total ukrain airforce
- Some ukrainian already know this and saying they ll start popular resistance against occupier once all that over .

Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them (Published 2021)

If Russia opts for an invasion, Ukraine’s generals say, they would have no hope of repelling it without a major infusion of military help from the West.

www.nytimes.com

then a economic sanction ll follow . along with a proxy war against russia with western help . can russia effort that ..

There is good air defense in Ukraine. Of course it is not enough against the Russian army, but it will not be "massacre of babies".

 

[Shashank Nayak]

Bad grade for your education. Yes, there is a low-intensity conflict now, but real battles were going on throughout 2014 and the first half of 2015.
It doesn't matter how hot it is there now. Ukraine is gradually moving away from dependence on Russia and Putin has nothing to offer to interest us.

So, what's the plan if there is a full scale Russian invasion? Open Conflict would not be ideal.. I guess ? What is the Ukranian Army laying emphasis on in case of an invasion ? Some kind of air land battle or more on Guerilla tactics, to make the occupation costly.. ?

 

[Sigmamale101]

Putin as bold as he is is actually showing us the last breath of a fading power. The only reason Putin is so aggressive is he thinks he has nothing to loose since what will come after him will be a weaker Russian state, with weaker leaders, and a younger Russian population who have not experienced the height of Soviet power and thus is not interested in reliving old glories...

In other words, if Putin fails now in Ukraine then Russia cannot mount a similar effort. So he has to engage in a brinkmanahip like no other. But it's ultimately a losing proposition for Russia strategically, for the more it tries to muscle Ukraine into submission the more Ukraine drifts away from it.

My opinion. Russia is going nowhere...all i see is a resurgent Russia. Russia will find another Putin. No Deep state ( going as far back as time of tsars ) out there has such a sophisticated statecraft & propganda machinery backed by military muscle. Only UK come close but they don't have a military muscle anymore & rely on US.
High nominal GDP doesn't count for s**t.
1.5 trillion $ GDP Russia took Crimea , successfully defended its ally in middle east....all under the nose of 18 trillion $ GDP EU & 20 trillion $ GDP US. It will take 2 to 3 weeks for Russians to smash Ukraine into oblivion, rest is all Ukrainian chest thumping & bravado of gorilla wurfare this & that over internet. No one is coming to save Ukraine not even God. There are some red lines which have been drawn historically in eastern Europe & are not be crossed, directly or indirectly...Napoleon , Hitler tried in past & we all know what happened. We have a Russian Empire in making & there's nothing you can do about it.

 

[Akim]

So, what's the plan if there is a full scale Russian invasion? Open Conflict would not be ideal.. I guess ? What is the Ukranian Army laying emphasis on in case of an invasion ? Some kind of air land battle or more on Guerilla tactics, to make the occupation costly.. ?

I am a reserve officer and not an officer of the General Staff, but as long as there is a regular army, then one cannot talk about any guerrilla war.

 

[JBH22]

So, what's the plan if there is a full scale Russian invasion? Open Conflict would not be ideal.. I guess ? What is the Ukranian Army laying emphasis on in case of an invasion ? Some kind of air land battle or more on Guerilla tactics, to make the occupation costly.. ?

Guerilla tactics with Nato funding and arming Ukrainians to do the dirty job. Ideally it will help to sanction Russia more, cut them from swift and kill nordstream2 project. This should help alienate Russia from whole EU.
Uncle Sam is happy it gets the job without any single casualty as it will fight Russians using Ukrainians and all the anti Russian coalitions in Eastern Europe. Assuming a good resistance it will be a bloodbath for Russia and Ukraine.
After Russia subdues Ukraine it will more to guerilla style conflict that is my analysis.

 

[Akim]

Guerilla tactics with Nato funding and arming Ukrainians to do the dirty job. Ideally it will help to sanction Russia more, cut them from swift and kill nordstream2 project. This should help alienate Russia from whole EU.
Uncle Sam is happy it gets the job without any single casualty as it will fight Russians using Ukrainians and all the anti Russian coalitions in Eastern Europe. Assuming a good resistance it will be a bloodbath for Russia and Ukraine.
After Russia subdues Ukraine it will more to guerilla style conflict that is my analysis.

They could not even conquer small Chechnya. Putin simply pays tribute to them so that they formally belong to Russia. Watch a video of the latest exercises of the Chechen special forces. Not a single Russian flag.

 

[JBH22]

They could not even conquer small Chechnya. Putin simply pays them dpan so that they formally belong to Russia. Watch a video of the latest exercises of the Chechen special forces. Not a single Russian flag.

They did absorb crimea that is true also

Maybe they know its better to let Ramzan do the dirty job, because it's not good for modern day optics to continue with 90s style massacre.

Even India has many regions where it has not been able to conquer, but we have control through money and influence that should suffice.

 

[asianobserve]

They did absorb crimea that is true also

Maybe they know its better to let Ramzan do the dirty job, because it's not good for modern day optics to continue with 90s style massacre.

Even India has many regions where it has not been able to conquer, but we have control through money and influence that should suffice.

Crimea had a Russian naval base. And Crimea may well run out of water first before Russia can fully absorb it.

The rest of Ukraine is a different story.

 

[asianobserve]

The devastating human, economic costs of Crimea’s annexation

People in the Peninsula say they are subject to poor social services, dirty water and spiralling prices.

But these days, soaring prices, corruption and spiralling pressure on any form of dissent make them wonder why they voted for “joining” Russia in the March 2014 “referendum” that has not been recognised in Ukraine or internationally.

“To make people less agitated, [Moscow] has to spend colossal amounts to solve their problems,” Nikolay Poritsky, Crimea’s former minister of housing and communal services under Ukraine, told Al Jazeera.

The devastating human, economic costs of Crimea’s annexation

People in the peninsula say they are subject to poor social services, dirty water and spiralling prices.

www.aljazeera.com

Just a snapshot of why nobody likes Russia around its neighborhood... it does nothing to make people's lives better. For the Bear, everything is about power play...

 

[Akim]

They did absorb crimea that is true also

Maybe they know its better to let Ramzan do the dirty job, because it's not good for modern day optics to continue with 90s style massacre.

Even India has many regions where it has not been able to conquer, but we have control through money and influence that should suffice.

We don't need local feudal lords.
This is some kind of Middle Ages.
And about the Crimea. If your brother in the family pounces on you with fists, how will you react to this? Here is a similar one. We did not expect such meanness from Russia. I had to go through a psychological scrapping. Now he is gone. And believe me - the worst enemies are former friends.

 

[asianobserve]

Ukrainian civilians preparing to resist Russian invasion...

 

[Flash12]

Putin as bold as he is is actually showing us the last breath of a fading power. The only reason Putin is so aggressive is he thinks he has nothing to loose since what will come after him will be a weaker Russian state, with weaker leaders, and a younger Russian population who have not experienced the height of Soviet power and thus is not interested in reliving old glories...

In other words, if Putin fails now in Ukraine then Russia cannot mount a similar effort. So he has to engage in a brinkmanahip like no other. But it's ultimately a losing proposition for Russia strategically, for the more it tries to muscle Ukraine into submission the more Ukraine drifts away from it.

Quite the opposite is true. The West is a dying power. Russia and Asia are a growing power. And Russia is a smarter force than the USSR.
Russia no longer has such fetters as ideology. Russia no longer has freeloaders in the form of union republics, in which more was invested than was obtained from them (it came to the point that the Russians lived worse than the inhabitants of the union republics). And young Russians have less and less moral and therefore material obligations to the countries of the former USSR.
Russia no longer invests heavily in building socialism in other countries. Russia earns more than it spends. Russia has huge gold and foreign exchange reserves and Russia is almost entirely self-sufficient in food. Unlike the West, which is mired in huge debts. And unlike the USSR, which in the end was practically bankrupt and bought food from the West.
For the first time, Russia has an advantage in some weapons that completely neutralize the huge military expenditures of the West.
In Syria, Russia demonstrated for the first time how to successfully conduct foreign military campaigns in a ring of enemies and against the West. Unlike the USSR, with its failed campaign in Afghanistan.

Therefore, we will see who will win

 

[Love Charger]

Rus finishes the conflict , the west prolongs it

 

[Flash12]

The territorial disputes are easy to settle if outside influences are removed. Whatever Russian goes to Russia and whatever is Ukrainian will return to them.

I just have to notice, if whatever Ukrainian will return to them there will be almost nothing ) Because many ukrainian territories were gifted to Ukraine by Russia. And there were not any Ukrainians almost 100-150 years ago )

 

[Flash12]

How quickly everything is forgotten.
There are many young people here, and I remember the early 90s, when in the RSFSR there was only seaweed in the public domain.

Because the stupid and hating heart Russia communists spent and invested more easily in the cultivation of communism all over the world and in the union republics than to Russia itself. I hope there will be no more such mistakes anymore.

 

[Flash12]

It was expected. It belonged to Russian Empire and to USSR for 200+ years, far longer than it belonged to independent Ukraine. After the cockholes started their Orange Revolution and overthrew a pro-Russian democratically elected President, it became essential to take it back or it would pose a significant geopolitical threat, as NATO navy would be stationed there.

Sorry, one notice. Yanukovich was not pro-Russian president. He was only not ANTI russian president. This and his suspension of the signing of the Euroassociation for a while in order to get more money from Europe became a verdict for him from the West. As well as his affecting interests of other Ukrainian oligarchs.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

Sorry, one notice. Yanukovich was not pro-Russian president. He was only not ANTI russian president. This and his suspension of the signing of the Euroassociation for a while in order to get more money from Europe became a verdict for him from the West. As well as his affecting interests of other Ukrainian oligarchs.

Yeah, but for the West, if you're not in their camp, then you are somehow 100% a Russian puppet. That was the reasoning behind them orchestrating the Orange Revolution, because they believed they are ousting a "pro-Russian" President.

 

[Flash12]

I'll reveal a secret. We have been at war with Russia for 8 years already.

And they feed and eat this bullsh*t for 8 years.

"Ukraine does not consider the corps of collaborators to be separate formations. They are controlled by the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation."

Rebel republics does not consider the corps of ukrainian army and Ukraine itself as independent formations. They are controlled and being armed by the US and EU . So it means that republics are at war with US and EU. Ok..

 

[Akim]

Because the stupid and hating heart Russia communists spent and invested more easily in the cultivation of communism all over the world and in the union republics than to Russia itself. I hope there will be no more such mistakes anymore.

This is a painting by Aivazovsky, who lived under Alexander III, who likes your Hu@lu. And then let us recall the famine in the 20s of the 20th century, Lend-Lease, purchases of grain from the USA and Canada in the 60s and 80s, chicken legs and other food in the 90s.
The fact that you were raised in the system of rashism does not negate history.