Civil war in Ukraine

[asianobserve]

Russia is like a very aggressive but very unattractive and abusive boyfriend who forces its girlfriends (former Imperial colonies and USSR states) to stay with against their will.

Russia is such a bad imperialist that nobody even like to immigrate to Russia from its former colonies:

 

[Akim]

I could understand the "phantom pains" of the former colonizers from Western Europe, but Asia ... Ourselves they won independence long ago?

 

[Jimih]

 

[asianobserve]

That's interesting... While Ukraine is not exactly on par with Russia, Ukraine is no Georgia either. Plus years of skirmishes with Russians and Ukrainian separatists, and US inputs could only prepare Ukraine better for a Russian onslaught.

I say Putin this time is biting more than he can chew...

 

[Jimih]

 

[JBH22]

I could understand the "phantom pains" of the former colonizers from Western Europe, but Asia ... Ourselves they won independence long ago?

It is not independence that you are seeking, to remain a viable state with such a huge neighbour you will need to become vassal of USA to survive. At best Ukraine could secure a Japan type deal, position US troops and prosper under their security umbrella. Alternatively it could backfire befriend them and they use/dump like they did with Pakistan. I don't know how this game will unfold for Ukraine.
However, I do hope Ukraine comes out as a prosperous state. It has everything to succeed.

 

[Akim]

It is not independence that you are seeking, to remain a viable state with such a huge neighbour you will need to become vassal of USA to survive. At best Ukraine could secure a Japan type deal, position US troops and prosper under their security umbrella. Alternatively it could backfire befriend them and they use/dump like they did with Pakistan. I don't know how this game will unfold for Ukraine.
However, I do hope Ukraine comes out as a prosperous state. It has everything to succeed.

We are developing. Very slow, but progressing.
If they start talking like zombies from rashist TV that the Ukr.SSR had the second economy in the USSR, then when it disintegrated and the market economy began to operate, it turned out that such products were not competitive
The slow development of the economy is due to low funding. Therefore, many sectors of the military industry can barely climb. But when the enemy knows that he will suffer unacceptable damage in the event of an invasion, he can only bark at his TV channels.
That is why our missile programs are perceived so painfully.

Small MLRS "Speka" 122-mm termobar.

 

[asianobserve]

Very dangerous and irresponsible move from Belarus...

 

[Jimih]

Donbass in imminent danger

 

[Akim]

In Donbass, drones armed with shaped-charge bombs converted from RKG-3 are actively used. This is not a tricky way to defend yourself.

Mute off
.......................................................................................................................................

 

[Jimih]

@Akim what's your say?

 

[Akim]

@Akim what's your say?

I will not say anything, because I wrote about it above. 100 thousand soldiers are not enough for a full-scale war, but quite enough for a local operation. As an option, the occupation troops in Donbas will carry out a large-scale provocation and the Russian army will come to their aid.
I don't have a Putin brain scanner. We have no panic. If a war starts, we will fight.

 

[JBH22]

I will not say anything, because I wrote about it above. 100 thousand soldiers are not enough for a full-scale war, but quite enough for a local operation. As an option, the occupation troops in Donbas will carry out a large-scale provocation and the Russian army will come to their aid.
I don't have a Putin brain scanner. We have no panic. If a war starts, we will fight.

Yes, 100K to occupy a state like Ukraine is a bit over stretch.
May be it is messaging for not to mess with Belarus. Any idea about state of Ukrainian airforce, without Russia how are you maintaining those Sukhoi and Mig?

 

[backburner]

I will not say anything, because I wrote about it above. 100 thousand soldiers are not enough for a full-scale war, but quite enough for a local operation. As an option, the occupation troops in Donbas will carry out a large-scale provocation and the Russian army will come to their aid.
I don't have a Putin brain scanner. We have no panic. If a war starts, we will fight.

are the azov battalions active now ?

 

[Akim]

are the azov battalions active now ?

Now it is a regiment. He covers Mariupol. His Nazi ancestry is as much a lie as the civil war.

 

[Akim]

Yes, 100K to occupy a state like Ukraine is a bit over stretch.
May be it is messaging for not to mess with Belarus. Any idea about state of Ukrainian airforce, without Russia how are you maintaining those Sukhoi and Mig?

Just like Iran has its F-14. Our aircraft factories are capable of producing spare parts analogies.

 

[Jimih]

Winter-Spring offensive

 

[Tshering22]

@Akim what's your say?

This will have tectonic effects in Asia. Basically all of the below red marked area starting with Lugansk and Kharkov (important historical city). Russia strategically speaking, cannot afford to see Ukraine in NATO. It is like having US bases along China border today in a unified Korea.

The water has crossed the limit; Even if Ukraine today declares that it won't joint NATO, Russians won't take any chances. They will strike through the black marked area with the aim to take the northeast & eastern provinces.

This is being coordinated closely with the Chinese; the CCP wants to make a quick land-grab and is desperate to demonstrate a show of force to re-assert its influence in China. There are enough faultlines now within the Communist Party that they are attempting to try this.

Capturing Taiwan in such a short window of time is not possible since Taiwanese terrain will require time and more manpower. The PLA will not want to trigger a WW3 over this.

But, it is enough time to grab huge chunks of land LAC and South China Sea territories simultaneously.

People, This has Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 written all over it.

 

[Akim]

Why does no one assume that in return we can bomb Belgorod or Taganrog or other Russian border towns?

 

[Tshering22]

Why does no one assume that in return we can bomb Belgorod or Taganrog or other Russian border towns?

Please don't take it otherwise; We are just simulating the Russian agenda. Of course in a war Ukraine will hit back with every possible means.