CIA report: Israel will fall in 20 years

Shiny Capstar

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Maybe he did. They were just not nuclear. Saddam was a "poison-gas" guy.
He probably destroyed all that Sarin before the US stepped in..
Either destroyed it or moved it out of the country. He wouldn't just leave it, justifying the invasion to the world.
 

Yusuf

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Pretty much every intelligence service in the world thought Iraq had WMD's, not just the CIA.
But none of them made a presentation like Colin Powell did at the behest of the CIA. They were more than a 100% sure they had WMDs. Their nuke program was over with Osirak. Most intel showed it's nuke program was over. Still they CIA was looking for it
 

Pintu

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Ok let's list down potential enemies and what they can do.
1) Saudi Arabia:- Totally an American ally and hence will not get into trouble with the US or Israel. Besides it's weapon system is completely western. Never know when their equipment works like the Tomcats Iran has.
2) Egypt:- Same as above but minus the western weaponry. Has Soviet era junk.
3) Syria:- sponsor of terrorists. Let them get Golan Hieghts first and then dream of entire Israel.
4) Iraq:-What to say about it?
5) Iran:-though non Arab, it's a sworn enemy of Israel, but it is not accepted in the Arab fold as it's largely Shia. Has a decent armed force but not good enough.
6) Jordan:- not that relevant in military status.

Let's not forget the trump Israel has. Nukes. It will use it if its survival is at stake.
All are true Yusuf, it is my assessment regarding the Israel's potential enemies in that region, you and me share common opinion:

1. Saudi Arabia: Feeds on Oil export to the USA, and many of USA's allied nations. Its armed forces boasts latest US built weapons, but manned by the foreign crews. Moreover it has no will to be enemy with Israel as it is allied nation to the USA. If for the debate we assume that a war happens with the Saudi Arabia, Saudis get seriously out flanked by Israelis neither for only expertise of IDF, also it attributes to the fact that in a war scenario through foreign crew you can buy service but not loyalty to your motherland, as you are loyal and committed to your motherland.

2. Egypt : Boasts western weaponry mainly but not hostile to Israel as Syria is, and in my personal opinion they are not skilled enough to withstand IDF assault or compared to IDF in skill. In 1967, 6- days war they had all of the topline Soviet supplied Aircrafts destroyed by pre-emptive strike by IAF, and virtually they had no air - defence system working at the time of raid. Thus they lost air power to engage Israel. Moreover from the regime of the late President Anwar Sadat they decided to side away from the staunch Anti-Israel hostility and neither they have a person like Gamal Abdel Nasser.

3. Syria : Can not face Israel militarily lack superior weapons and also training and skill. I am with the same opinion of you first let them capture Golan Heights.

4. Iraq : Disintegrated by the USA, and militarily aided by the USA and troubled by the regular suicidal attacks, it is now a distant dream to think Iraq as enemy now.

5. Jordan : A modern Army indeed with the US , UK supply and trainings an some how at par with many nations in that area fought well and repulsed IDF in 1956 and 1966, 1968 but performed worst in 1967 but it is a defensive force , and they have peace treaty with Israel, thus will chose not to be enemy with Israel, however it depends of King Abdullah - II's grip on that country.


6. Iran : Motivated, willed and disciplined than Israel's Arab enemies, and competent enough for Israel to consider it as 'Enemy' but lacks technological superiority in warfare, Iran does not trust Arabs, and also as I mentioned , there may be war of words, but still not seeing of a possibility of conflict in near future, if anything serious could happen.

Other nations: Pakistan does not fall in that region , but as a enemy , it is an incompetent one. Though there may be rhetoric , Pakistan will avoid direct conflict with Israel, and also as it is being oxygened by the USA, it has nothing left to go war with Israel, except if ultras take over and reign in that country. UAE, Kwait , I think simply will not go with war with Israel, since they are ally of the USA.

Regards
 

Pintu

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I stated the western weaponry to show Egypt's weakness. Not strength.
If a war breaks out between Egypt and Israel. Egypt will be paralyzed by an arms embargo.

Soham, I was also not of that opinion while writing that arguments, I written those to show off Egypt's weakness.

In my opinion, Arms embargo is not needed to paralyse Egypt, IDF is quite capable of doing that.


Regards to you.
 

Soham

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All are true Yusuf, it is my assessment regarding the Israel's potential enemies in that region, you and me share common opinion:

1. Saudi Arabia: Feeds on Oil export to the USA, and many of USA's allied nations. Its armed forces boasts latest US built weapons, but manned by the foreign crews. Moreover it has no will to be enemy with Israel as it is allied nation to the USA. If for the debate we assume that a war happens with the Saudi Arabia, Saudis get seriously out flanked by Israelis neither for only expertise of IDF, also it attributes to the fact that in a war scenario through foreign crew you can buy service but not loyalty to your motherland, as you are loyal and committed to your motherland.

2. Egypt : Boasts western weaponry mainly but not hostile to Israel as Syria is, and in my personal opinion they are not skilled enough to withstand IDF assault or compared to IDF in skill. In 1967, 6- days war they had all of the topline Soviet supplied Aircrafts destroyed by pre-emptive strike by IAF, and virtually they had no air - defence system working at the time of raid. Thus they lost air power to engage Israel. Moreover from the regime of the late President Anwar Sadat they decided to side away from the staunch Anti-Israel hostility and neither they have a person like Gamal Abdel Nasser.

3. Syria : Can not face Israel militarily lack superior weapons and also training and skill. I am with the same opinion of you first let them capture Golan Heights.

4. Iraq : Disintegrated by the USA, and militarily aided by the USA and troubled by the regular suicidal attacks, it is now a distant dream to think Iraq as enemy now.

5. Jordan : A modern Army indeed with the US , UK supply and trainings an some how at par with many nations in that area fought well and repulsed IDF in 1956 and 1966, 1968 but performed worst in 1967 but it is a defensive force , and they have peace treaty with Israel, thus will chose not to be enemy with Israel, however it depends of King Abdullah - II's grip on that country.


6. Iran : Motivated, willed and disciplined than Israel's Arab enemies, and competent enough for Israel to consider it as 'Enemy' but lacks technological superiority in warfare, Iran does not trust Arabs, and also as I mentioned , there may be war of words, but still not seeing of a possibility of conflict in near future, if anything serious could happen.

Other nations: Pakistan does not fall in that region , but as a enemy , it is an incompetent one. Though there may be rhetoric , Pakistan will avoid direct conflict with Israel, and also as it is being oxygened by the USA, it has nothing left to go war with Israel, except if ultras take over and reign in that country. UAE, Kwait , I think simply will not go with war with Israel, since they are ally of the USA.

Regards
Great. Now consider them all attacking at once.
It has happened in the past....can happen in the future.
 

EnlightenedMonk

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IMHO, out of the given list only Syria and Egypt might be interested in attacking... not the Saudis or the Jordanians for sure because they have very close ties with the US to jeopardize those...

How will Iraq and Iran reach Israel ??? That remains to be seen...
 

Pintu

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Great. Now consider them all attacking at once.
It has happened in the past....can happen in the future.
Soham , future will tell. It really depends on future. It can happen to any nation, in this world but in the probability of that possibility what I have mentioned in my previous post, except Iran, Israel's enemies lacks discipline, motivation and will to take on Israel and these are what that make Israel stronger than them, Iran simply does not believe Arabs. Only Pan-Arab nationalism can unite the Arabs, still I can not see any body in the Arab world has this personality to motivate the Arabs with Pan-Arab nationality.
 

Soham

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IMHO, out of the given list only Syria and Egypt might be interested in attacking... not the Saudis or the Jordanians for sure because they have very close ties with the US to jeopardize those...

How will Iraq and Iran reach Israel ??? That remains to be seen...
Nothing will please the Al-Sauds more than their share of revenge against Israel.
 
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Egypt will not attack Israel, they have good relations and trade. Egypt is a moderate country, if the threat to Israel's existence arises USA will be actively involved.
 

Pintu

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Egypt will not attack Israel, they have good relations and trade. Egypt is a moderate country, if the threat to Israel's existence arises USA will be actively involved.
True, LETHALFORCE, I agree with you on that. It is from era of Late Sadat they parted from the way of staunch hostility with Israel. I agree with you also on that the immediate involvement of the USA in case of hostility between the two nations.
 

Soham

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LF,

Egypt has no choice but to co-operate. They have been hammered once.
Though the government of Egypt has made peace with Israel, it`s still a skillfully hidden dictatorship there. The people have no say. They have presidents for life there. To assuage this anger the people have, they need someone to hate even more. And that role is played by Israel. The same government that made peace with Israel, still encourages hatreds of Israel and Jews. Let`s not forget this is the part of the world were the Protocols and Mein Kampf are best sellers, and was not the top song in Egypt several years ago called "I hate Israel"? All it is is scapegoating to deflect problems at home.. The unfortunate alternative would be islamist government, which would just lead to war between the two, so there`s really no winning.
 
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Soham they can hate Israel all they want in their country, but taking military action against Israel would be another humiliating loss for them, and yes sadat paid with his life for peace with israel, israel also gave a lot of territory gained back to egypt but i don't think arabs uniting againg could defeat israel, history has proven this many times in the past and would again, but the Iranian nuclear angle adds a new dimension , and also a new shia angle.
 

Soham

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I'm not saying they can.
I was just against ruling out the possible invading force as "incompetent".
 
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they would not be incompetent but would be a threat, but to me syria is the bigger threat
 

Pintu

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Soham , in my opinion ,as I am fully agree with LF, threat lies in Syria, though Syria will resort to support Anti - Israel groups , it will not simply get into the direct conflict with Israel. As what I think a formidable enemy lies in Iran.

Nothing will please the Al-Sauds more than their share of revenge against Israel.
Soham if Saudis need pleasure , the Arabs should be united, which I can not seeing in distant future.
 

Shiny Capstar

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But none of them made a presentation like Colin Powell did at the behest of the CIA. They were more than a 100% sure they had WMDs. Their nuke program was over with Osirak. Most intel showed it's nuke program was over. Still they CIA was looking for it
WMD's doesn't just mean nukes, although I do agree Powell made a fool of himself.
 

Flint

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I can't argue against the birth rate. Palestinians have far, far higher birthrates than Israel while the territory they occupy is shrinking. I cannot see how long this will go on before they simply overflow the territory.
 

Vinod2070

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Israel should go with a two state solution while they still can.
 

johnee

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Soham they can hate Israel all they want in their country, but taking military action against Israel would be another humiliating loss for them, and yes sadat paid with his life for peace with israel, israel also gave a lot of territory gained back to egypt but i don't think arabs uniting againg could defeat israel, history has proven this many times in the past and would again, but the Iranian nuclear angle adds a new dimension , and also a new shia angle.
LF, you are right. but israel has to win every time to survive, but all the arab nations(and iran) has to succeed just ONCE, and that would mean another halocaust. so while israel is safe for now, it is still always faces the plausibility of extinctiion. and of course, the time bomb of birth rates is ticking away.
 
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LF, you are right. but israel has to win every time to survive, but all the arab nations(and iran) has to succeed just ONCE, and that would mean another halocaust. so while israel is safe for now, it is still always faces the plausibility of extinctiion. and of course, the time bomb of birth rates is ticking away.
Johnee Israel possibly has nukes too? If Israel is going down every single arab country in the vicinity will also be going down.
 

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