Chinese subs irk US Think Tanks

SHASH2K2

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May 1, 2010 in Uncategorized
Tags: Chinese Submarines

"It concerns me to see China going for these submarines," said Robert D. Kaplan, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, in a tele-conference with journalists.

Kaplan earlier authored an article, "The Geography of Chinese Power," (May/June 2010, Foreign Affairs), saying that the shifting balance of power in the Eastern hemisphere will undoubtedly "exacerbate U.S.-Chinese tensions in the years ahead."

Kaplan argued that U.S.-Chinese tensions will rise as China expands its influence to acquire resources to fuel its growth, and support the rising living standards of its immense population.

"China's military threat is only indirect, to limit the power of the U.S. while trying to raise the living standards of its population which is one-fifth of humanity," Kaplan said.

"Cold War was quite stable except Vietnam, Korean conflicts," Kaplan told the listeners, adding, "Now we are seeing naval powers of Koreans, Japanese and Chinese."

Kaplan compared the decline of military power in Europe to Asia, saying, "These areas of Asia are still in nationalistic mode where having a military is not a matter of shame as it is in Europe."

On the question of Sino-Indian relations, Kaplan predicted, "As China moves South, India moves to East and to the former colonies of British Raj and that will bring a lot of tension in future."

Energy and natural resources hungry China is expanding its influence in Africa and on the ever-tightening Chinese iron grip on African resources, Kaplan said, "China is becoming a political player (in Africa) with no particular focus except to get the resources."

"Niger is the latest example: The tiny African nation saw a coup d'état. Chinese had a great relationship with the former government (under an autocratic president Mamadou Tandia) while after the coup, Chinese are very friendly with the new regime (military officials who ousted the president)," Kaplan told journalists, adding, "shows they play both ways."

American ally Japan is juggling with a new multi-party system after having a one-party system for a long time and as the new party struggles to learn how to govern, Kaplan said, "China is silently reaching out to Japan saying that you don't need Americans and we will give you protection."

Kaplan cautioned, "Americans are not going to have a large black and white military presence in Japan," with withdrawal of American troops on the cards.

On a question about piracy, Kaplan was positive about it, saying, "Good thing about piracy is it brings nations together "¦ Somalia has longest shoreline and China has dispatched its fleets thus they are getting a hands-on experience to operate those fleets far from home."

Today China still depends on the U.S. for patrolling international commercial sea-lanes but in future it will start aiming for such coverage from its own naval forces.

Kaplan cited from personal experience, describing these "far from home" experiences for China as very valuable, noting, "throughout history, the nations which have built up economies, have also built military power to guard their economic power."

Iranian nuclear programs and global efforts headed by the U.S. to contain those, might not go far as "China is hungry for energy and natural resources and China has an appetite for good Iranian relations," cautioned Kaplan.
 

SHASH2K2

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February 5, 2010: Recently, the Taiwanese Navy detected an unidentified submarine outside one of its major naval bases. Ships and helicopters pursued the contact, but the suspected submarine left the area. A Chinese boat was suspected, mainly because for the last decade, Chinese subs have increasingly been showing up close to Japan and South Korea as well.

Two years ago, Japan increased anti-submarine patrols in international waters, just outside Japanese territorial waters. Chinese submarines were apparently exercising there more frequently, looking for Japanese, South Korean and American warships to play tag with. The U.S. has also redirected more of its space based naval search capabilities to assist the Japanese.

Chinese Song class diesel electric and Han class nuclear powered boats have been detected and tracked with increasing frequency over the last few years. In that time, one of each of these was spotted stalking the American carrier USS George Washington, as it headed to South Korea for a visit.

China is rapidly acquiring advanced submarine building capabilities, and providing money (for fuel and spare parts) to send its subs to sea more often. Moreover, new classes of boats are constantly appearing. The new Type 39A, or Yuan class, looks just like the Russian Kilo class. In the late 1990s, the Chinese began ordering Russian Kilo class subs, then one of the latest diesel-electric design available. Russia was selling new Kilos for about $200 million each, which is about half the price other Western nations sell similar boats for. The Kilos weigh 2,300 tons (surface displacement), have six torpedo tubes and a crew of 57. They are quiet, and can travel about 700 kilometers under water at a quiet speed of about five kilometers an hour. Kilos carry 18 torpedoes or SS-N-27 anti-ship missiles (with a range of 300 kilometers and launched underwater from the torpedo tubes.) The combination of quietness and cruise missiles makes Kilo very dangerous to American carriers. North Korea and Iran have also bought Kilos.

The Chinese have already built two Yuans, the second one an improvement on the first. These two boats have been at sea to try out the technology that was pilfered from the Russians. A third Yuan is under construction, and it also appears to be a bit different from the first two. The first Yuan appeared to be a copy of the early model Kilo (the model 877), while the second Yuan (referred to as a Type 39B) appeared to copy the late Kilos (model 636). The third Yuan may end up being a further evolution, or Type 39C.

Preceding the Yuans was the Type 39, or Song class. This was the first Chinese sub to have the teardrop shaped hull, and was based on the predecessor of the Kilo, the Romeo class. The Type 39A was thought to be just an improved Song, but on closer examination, especially by the Russians, it looked like a clone of the Kilos. The Yuan class also have AIP (Air Independent Propulsion), which allows non-nuclear boats to stay underwater for days at a time. China currently has 13 Song class, 12 Kilo class, two Yuan class and 25 Romeo class boats. There are only three Han class SSNs, as the Chinese are still having a lot of problems with nuclear power in subs. Despite that, the Hans are going to sea, even though they are noisy and easily detected by Western sensors.
 
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SHASH2K2

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Given the large number of submarine fleet chinese have and depleting number of Indian submarines . Chinese Subs can afflict serious damage to Indian intrests in case of war. What is Indian strategy against them . They are stealthy as well. SO we need some work on mesures to tackle them.
 

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CFR has an excellent piece on Chinese Navy by Kaplan.

Shash2k - Subs have one purpose and one purpose only, and its not defence. Chinese by building a "massive' sub fleet are signalling their intent.
 
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Given the large number of submarine fleet chinese have and depleting number of Indian submarines . Chinese Subs can afflict serious damage to Indian intrests in case of war. What is Indian strategy against them . They are stealthy as well. SO we need some work on mesures to tackle them.
Chinese Subs will be thousands of miles away from China if they are in our waters. How much experience do Chinese have fighting beyond their region?? we have acquired P8-I's to hunt down these subs.
 

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Chinese Subs will be thousands of miles away from China if they are in our waters. How much experience do Chinese have fighting beyond their region?? we have acquired P8-I's to hunt down these subs.
Subs can operate for months on end. How much experience do we have fighting sub fleets ? The P8Is have been ordered and will be delivered sometime in the future.
Will the number of our ASW crafts and attack subs counter the PLAN sub fleet ?
 
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Subs can operate for months on end. How much experience do we have fighting sub fleets ? The P8Is have been ordered and will be delivered sometime in the future.
Will the number of our ASW crafts and attack subs counter the PLAN sub fleet ?
Chinese have roughly 10 nuclear subs that are somewhat operational the older ones are anything but stealthy, some of the newer subs are being built but the SLBM 's are giving major problems.Chinese do have a lot of diesel electric subs those would not be able to operate for months or operate to far away from China the main threat is from the nuclear subs. If nuclears subs are being used they most likely will be carrying nuclear and limited conventional warheads along with cruise missiles. What kind of situation would bring about this scenario?? What role would the string of pearls play?? If they are used as a base against India can India say it is an act of war by a neighboring country and they may possibly have to face nuclear retaliation from India?? The main question is how prepared is India for this scenario?? would other nations help India in any way?? USA does claim to track most Chinese subs and Russia also has the capability. The P8-I 's are a new platform but a vital one. The main area where India needs to focus on is detection there are some claims that some India satellites have sub tracking ability how true this is I don't know??

http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-90478.html

http://www.defenceforum.in/forum/showthread.php/10387-US-satellites-shadow-China-s-submarines

http://indiadefenceonline.com/1376/indian-navy-plans-dedicated-military-satellite/

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/india/irs.htm

http://officialsite.my/tempur/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=389&Itemid=2
 
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DaRk WaVe

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older but still relevant....


When the U.S. Navy deploys a battle fleet on exercises, it takes the security of its aircraft carriers very seriously indeed.
At least a dozen warships provide a physical guard while the technical wizardry of the world's only military superpower offers an invisible shield to detect and deter any intruders.
That is the theory. Or, rather, was the theory.
American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board.

By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.
According to senior Nato officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy.
The Americans had no idea China's fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.

One Nato figure said the effect was "as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik" - a reference to the Soviet Union's first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.

The lone Chinese vessel slipped past at least a dozen other American warships which were supposed to protect the carrier from hostile aircraft or submarines.

And the rest of the costly defensive screen, which usually includes at least two U.S. submarines, was also apparently unable to detect it.
According to the Nato source, the encounter has forced a serious re-think of American and Nato naval strategy as commanders reconsider the level of threat from potentially hostile Chinese submarines.
It also led to tense diplomatic exchanges, with shaken American diplomats demanding to know why the submarine was "shadowing" the U.S. fleet while Beijing pleaded ignorance and dismissed the affair as coincidence.

Analysts believe Beijing was sending a message to America and the West demonstrating its rapidly-growing military capability to threaten foreign powers which try to interfere in its "backyard".

The People's Liberation Army Navy's submarine fleet includes at least two nuclear-missile launching vessels.

Its 13 Song Class submarines are extremely quiet and difficult to detect when running on electric motors.

Commodore Stephen Saunders, editor of Jane's Fighting Ships, and a former Royal Navy anti-submarine specialist, said the U.S. had paid relatively little attention to this form of warfare since the end of the Cold War.
He said: "It was certainly a wake-up call for the Americans.
"It would tie in with what we see the Chinese trying to do, which appears to be to deter the Americans from interfering or operating in their backyard, particularly in relation to Taiwan."
In January China carried a successful missile test, shooting down a satellite in orbit for the first time.
The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.
 
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http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/02/post_2.php

China's Submarine Fleet Continues Low Patrol Rate


China's entire submarine fleet conducted only two patrols in 2006, according to information declassified by the U.S. Navy and obtained by the Federation of American Scientists under the Freedom of Information Act. The low patrol rate follows a drop from an all-time high of only six patrols in 2000 to none in 2005. China's single sea-launched ballistic missile submarine Xia, the data shows, has never conducted a deterrent patrol.

The low level of Chinese submarine patrols is a curious contrast to warnings by the Pentagon, some private institutes and news media that China is expanding its submarine operations deeper into the Pacific. Although Chinese submarines occasionally venture into the waters around Japan and Taiwan, the fleet is surprisingly inactive.

Since 1981, the first year for which patrol data is available, the Chinese submarine force has conducted an average of less than two patrols per year. The highest number of annual patrols conducted since 1981 was six patrols in 2000. In four years (1982, 1990, 1993 and 2005), no patrols were conducted at all. Over the 25-year period, the trend is that patrols have only increased from one per year to approximately 2.8 patrols per year.

Chinese Submarine Patrols
1981-2006

The entire Chinese submarine fleet conducts less than three patrols per year on average. The ballistic missile submarine Xia has never conducted a deterrent patrol.


So What is a Patrol?

The Navy has refused to tell FAS what a "patrol" is, saying doing so "would divulge methods and sources." So interpretation of the data comes with a great deal of uncertainty. But the Defense Department's unclassified Dictionary of Military Terms (JP 1-02) and earlier versions provide some hints by listing the following five definitions:

* Antisubmarine patrol: The systematic and continuing investigation of an
area or along a line to detect or hamper submarines, used when the direction
of submarine movement can be established.

* Inshore patrol: A naval defense patrol operating generally within a naval
defense coastal area and comprising all elements of harbor defenses, the
coastal lookout system, patrol craft supporting bases, aircraft, and Coast
Guard stations.

* Offshore patrol: A naval defense patrol operating in the outer areas of
navigable coastal waters. It is a part of the naval local defense forces
consisting of naval ships and aircraft and operates outside those areas
assigned to the inshore patrol.

* Patrol: A detachment of ground, sea, or air forces sent out for the purpose
of gathering information or carrying out a destructive, harassing, mopping up,
or security mission.

* Submarine patrol area: A restricted area established to allow submarine
operations: a. unimpeded by the operation of, or possible attack from, friendly
forces in wartime; b. without submerged mutual interference in peacetime.

If one assumes that U.S. Naval Intelligence's use of the term "patrol" follows the DOD's definitions, then the declassified patrol data suggests that Chinese general purpose submarines in 2006 twice conducted investigations to detect other submarines, participated in naval defense operations in coastal or outside coastal areas, or deployed for the purpose of gathering information or harassing. That implies an almost dormant submarine fleet.

The Song Incident

One of the two patrols conducted in 2006 appears to have been the widely reported surfacing of a Song-class diesel-electric submarine near the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk in the South China Sea. The news media and pundits dramatized the incident as an example of China expanding its submarine operations, the Chinese government downplayed the reports as inaccurate, and the Pentagon said the media made too much of the incident.

"The bottom line is that [...] they're deploying them further and more frequently," Defense News quoted an expert on the Chinese Navy at the National Defense University saying. China might even have a decisive submarine surge capability in 20 years, another pundit argued. "They are building a blue-water navy," yet another expert warned. A politician in Taiwan thought it raises questions about "whether the U.S. in losing its military edge in the Western Pacific," and commentators in both Taipei and Washington concluded that the incident showed that Taiwan needs to buy more submarines.

The Pentagon's 2006 report Military Power of the People's Republic of China stated that China was working on establishing a "first" or "second island chain" strategy for its naval forces, and that "Chinese forces have increased operations beyond China's borders and coastal waters." This may be the case for surface ships, but to illustrate the development the Pentagon highlighted "the highly publicized 2004 intrusion of a HAN-class nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters during operations far into the western Pacific Ocean." DOD did not mention that the intrusion was one of only three patrols conducted by the entire Chinese submarine force in 2004, and that no patrols at all were conducted in 2005.

The U.S.-China Commission established by Congress after reports about Chinese spying, stated in 2006 that China is pursuing measures to try to "control" the seas in the Western Pacific, although "controlling" the seas is a daunting technological and operational task, and that China continues to "expand" its submarine force.

The Shrinking Chinese Submarine Fleet

Although China is modernizing its submarine force, it is not "expanding" it. Since the mid-1980s, the force has been in steady decline from nearly 120 boats to roughly 55 operational submarines today. The U.S. Navy expects the force will level out around 40 boats in the next decade.

The Shrinking Chinese Submarine Fleet

The Chinese submarine fleet has declined by approximately 50 percent since the mid-1980s, mainly due to retirement of old and obsolete classes. Construction of new classes is underway but is not anticipated to lead to an increase, as the U.S. Navy expects the fleet will level out at around 40 submarines in the next decade.


The decline of the submarine fleet is part of a transition where large older classes are being phased out and replaced with newer but less numerous submarine classes. The new submarines are more capable than the ones they replace, but the modernization has not resulted in an increase in the number of submarine patrols. On the contrary, during the period between 2000 and 2006, when China acquired a dozen new Kilo and Song class submarines, the number of patrols declined from six to two (with no patrols at all in 2005).

Implications

The implications of the low patrol rate are significant. The total operational experience for the entire Chinese submarine force is only 49 patrols in 25 years, corresponding to each submarine conducting an average of one patrol every third year.

As a result, Chinese submarine crews appear to have relatively little operational experience and consequently limited skills in operating their boats safely and competently. It suggests that the tactical skills that would be needed for the Chinese submarine force to operate effectively in a war may be limited.

China continues – at least for now – to use its submarine force as a coastal defense force.

USA has tracked almost all Chinese sub patrols this how good their stealth is and with the sub detecting satellite 100% tracking will continue
 
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http://www.fpif.org/articles/india_and_israel_eye_iran

India and Israel Eye Iran

Israel's spy satellite launched by India in the third week of January considerably enhances Israel's intelligence-gathering capability. The launch of the Tecsar satellite, also known as Polaris, also marks a new stage in India-Israeli strategic relations and adds a new factor in the complex security scenario in the Middle East.

The Tecsar satellite is fitted with a large dish-like antenna to transmit and receive radar signals that can penetrate darkness and thick clouds. Built by Israeli Aerospace Industries, the Tecsar ranks among the world's most advanced space systems.

India officially argues that it is commercially utilizing its advanced technological capacity to place satellites in orbit. But launching a spy satellite for Israel cannot be treated as a purely commercial transaction since the strategic and political implications of such a deal are too obvious. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), whose Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle was used to place the satellite in orbit, is known for the fanfare and publicity blitz around its every launch. Such publicity was conspicuously absent on this occasion. The ISRO deliberately underplayed the strategic and political implications of the launch. There were no media witnesses for the event. Until Antrix, the marketing and commercial arm of the ISRO, made the announcement, the event was shrouded in secrecy.

The real reason for the satellite launch is Iran. India's launch of the new Tecsar, Israel's advanced Israeli satellite, is equipped with a camera capable of taking pictures of Iranian soil through the masses of clouds in day or night conditions. Although the United States was opposed to the launch, it has nevertheless assigned India responsibility for helping to contain Iran.
Strategic Significance

In reporting on the event, the Israeli media highlighted the strategic significance of the satellite in relation to Iran. The Jerusalem Post wrote, "The launch will dramatically increase Israel's intelligence gathering capabilities regarding the Islamic Republic's nuclear program since the satellite can submit images in all weather conditions, a capability that Israel's existing satellites lacked." Haaretz was equally candid: "the sophisticated new spy satellite could boost intelligence-gathering capabilities regarding Iran." The satellite "enables Israel to establish a new point of view in space, allowing it photographic angles and reception of Iranian communications which were unavailable in prior satellite launches," the Haaretz article continued. News Middle East reported Israeli officials confirming that "Tecsar is of particular interest to their country because it can be used to keep tab on Iran's nuclear program," which the United States and Israel fear is a cover for pursuing nuclear weapons.

India has thus become an active collaborator in enhancing Israeli security, particularly vis-à-vis Iran. According to P.R. Kumaraswamy, a well-known expert on India-Israeli relations, "Put simply, should Israel resort to a military option against Iran's nuclear program in the future, Polaris would be pivotal. Perhaps it was due to this consideration that the launch was surrounded with secrecy." As Haaretz points out, "The launch is also an expression of the growing cooperation between India and Israel in the security sphere as a whole, and in particular in the field of missiles, radar and satellites."

Israel commissioned the launch since it did not have orbital polar flight capabilities. The deal was finalized during the visit of Israeli defense ministry director-general Amos Yaron to New Delhi three years ago at the beginning of the term of the present Congress-led government in India. The launch of the Israeli spy satellite was originally scheduled for late 2007 but had to be postponed a few times. Indian officials attributed this to technical difficulties and weather. Media reports suggested that the delay was due to intense political pressure from some Gulf countries. But Jerusalem Post squarely put the blame for the delay on "Iranian sabotage," information it attributed to Western sources. Iran "has applied heavy pressure through Indian opposition parties – particularly the Muslim and Communist political factions," the daily said. There is no Muslim faction in Indian opposition. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), on whose support the Indian government depends for its survival, has been critical of the government's support of the U.S. strategy against Iran. In a statement it attacked the government "for collaborating with Israel" and accused it of "aiding Tel Aviv's military efforts in launching its spy satellite."

A fortnight after the launch, Iran voiced its unhappiness over the launch of an Israel spy satellite by India. Iran said that New Delhi should have considered the "political" dimensions of the deal, according to rediff.com. [] Iranian Ambassador Seyed Mehdi Nabitzadeh said his country's point of view had been conveyed to the government, which responded by citing technical reasons. "We hope that wise and independent countries like India do not give their space technologies to launch spying operations against Iran," the ambassador told the media in New Delhi.

A sea change in India's relations with Israel took place after the National Democratic Alliance Government (NDA), led by the Hindu militants of the Bharatiya Janatha Party, came to power in 1998. India soon became Israel's closest ally in Asia with strategic, defense, and intelligence cooperation growing rapidly. India became the biggest market for Israeli arms. Israel became India's second largest supplier of arms but also the largest supplier of several high-tech, critical weaponry such as a wide array of surveillance items, electronic warfare systems, a ground-based Green Pine ABM radar, and Phalcon airborne warning and control systems. These arms sales were part of a declared NDA policy to forge an alliance among India, the United States, and Israel.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government came to power in mid-2004 amid expectations that it would take a new look at Middle East policy. However, there was no such review. Instead, the government continued to collaborate with Israel on a low-key basis. It was soon obvious that the government was waiting for the exit of Yasser Arafat from the scene to go ahead full steam with strategic and defense collaboration with Israel.

India's Naval Chief Admiral Suresh Mehta visited Israel in the first week of January 2008 to finalize several key defense projects. World Tribune reports that Mehta, also chairman of the Indian joint chiefs of staff, met his Israeli naval counterpart and senior defense officials for discussions on weapons project and joint training. Mehta was said to have reviewed efforts to enhance the Israeli-origin Barak missiles defense system. The Barak-2 is designed to protect ships from a range of missiles and to expand India's interception and detection capabilities. India has already deployed 14 Barak-1 systems produced by the state-owned Israeli Aerospace Industries. Under the sale, some of the components of the Barak were produced in India. Industry sources in Israel said India has sought to purchase Israeli missile technology. The sources cited India's interest in Israeli Python 5 and Derby auto air missiles as well as Deblah-2 air-launched cruise missile.
Changing Geopolitics

The geopolitical implications of the collaboration between India and Israel are grave and manifold. In spite of denials, the United States has assigned India a role in its strategy against Iran, which India has been playing since July 2005.

"It is a safe guess that support for U.S. actions on Iran was one of the conditions of India's nuclear deal with the United States," I wrote in 2005. "The commitment Washington extracted from the Indian prime minister in July 2005 to vote against Iran in the International Atomic Energy's governing board was followed by a campaign against India on the Capitol Hill. Congressman Tom Lantos, in remarks before the House International Relations Committee, said India had to 'choose between the ayatollahs of terror and the U.S.'"

India voted twice in the IAEA governing board against Iran, thus endorsing the U.S. agenda for confrontation with Iran. In the Henry Hyde Act, which governs the India-U.S. nuclear agreement, the Untied States expects "India's full cooperation to dissuade, isolate and if necessary sanction and contain Iran." Iran is likely to interpret the collaboration of India and Israel in intelligence-gathering as part of this grand scheme.

India's interest in the proposed Iranian gas pipeline through Pakistan diminished sharply from the time the India-U.S. nuclear deal began to take shape. India has not participated in some of the recent discussions on the pipeline. While India has not officially withdrawn from the project, it is believed that the United States wants to undermine India-Iran economic relations to such an extent that New Delhi becomes a stakeholder in its plans against Iran.

There are other implications, too. Israeli spy satellites also serve as weapons in the continuing conflict with the Palestinians. Pakistan understandably has anxiety about spy satellites launched by India being used to gather information on Pakistan, especially with reported plans to launch two more satellites. Times of India reported that although command, control and supervision of the Tescar will be in Israeli hands, "Israel will allow India access to some of the data sent back to ground stations."

India launched this TECSAR satellite for Israel. This satellite is believed to have submarine tracking capability. India and Israel have an intelligence sharing agreement where data from this satellite is shared.
 
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Singh

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Chinese have roughly 10 nuclear subs that are somewhat operational the older ones are anything but stealthy, some of the newer subs are being built but the SLBM 's are giving major problems.
I think nuclear subs are more noisy as compared to Diesel Electric subs.
China's sub fleet will be massive.

Chinese do have a lot of diesel electric subs those would not be able to operate for months or operate to far away from China the main threat is from the nuclear subs.
Diesel Electric Subs can also stay submerged for long periods. And India and China our neighbours, distances are not great.

If nuclears subs are being used they most likely will be carrying nuclear and limited conventional warheads along with cruise missiles.
If its an SSBN it will carry SLBMs if its an SSN then it will carry SLCMs.

What kind of situation would bring about this scenario?? What role would the string of pearls play?? If they are used as a base against India can India say it is an act of war by a neighboring country and they may possibly have to face nuclear retaliation from India?? The main question is how prepared is India for this scenario?? would other nations help India in any way??
Dunno.

USA does claim to track most Chinese subs and Russia also has the capability.
Claims and counter claims. The key is gathering acoustic signatures.

The P8-I 's are a new platform but a vital one.
But will it be enough ? The biggest deterrent would be SSBNs and ICBMs.

The main area where India needs to focus on is detection there are some claims that some India satellites have sub tracking ability how true this is I don't know??
Our sats can conceivably track if the subs are in shallow water. In the deep ocean not sure.
 

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Chinese submarines, destroyers spotted in high seas near Okinawa
Tuesday 13th April, 09:44 AM JST

TOKYO —
Two Chinese submarines and eight destroyers were spotted by the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force on Saturday in the high seas between the main island of Okinawa and Miyako Island in the southernmost prefecture, Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa said Tuesday.

The defense chief said the Chinese submarines and destroyers were navigating southeastward, adding that Tokyo has never before confirmed such a large number of Chinese vessels near Japan.

The Joint Staff Office of the Self-Defense Forces later said that Chinese submarines were seen on the sea surface near Japan for the first time and that Beijing had not notified Tokyo of the fleet navigation in the East China Sea toward the Pacific Ocean.

Two MSDF destroyers Choukai and Suzunami spotted the fleet of Chinese combatant craft in the sea near the Nansei Islands about 140 kilometers west-southwest of the Okinawa main island around 8 p.m. Saturday. Those Chinese vessels conducted refueling on the sea on Sunday, according to the office.

Flight training of helicopters aboard some of the Chinese destroyers was conducted between last Wednesday and Friday in the East China Sea and one of the choppers flew some 90 meters away from the MSDF destroyer Suzunami, the office said.

Japan has made an inquiry to China through diplomatic channels about the submarine navigation and lodged a protest over the helicopter's proximate flight, which it deems dangerous, according to the office.
 

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China Defense White Paper Describes Nuclear Escalation NAS-AAAS Dual-Use Research Survey Results Released
Feb
03
Chinese Submarine Patrols Doubled in 2008
China, Hans Kristensen, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, United StatesAdd comments

Chinese submarines conducted 12 patrols in 2008, the highest ever.
.
By Hans M. Kristensen

Chinese attack submarines sailed on more patrols in 2008 than ever before, according to information obtained by Federation of American Scientists from U.S. naval intelligence.

The information, which was declassified by U.S. naval intelligence in response to a Freedom of Information Act request from the Federation of American Scientists, shows that China's fleet of more than 50 attack submarines conducted 12 patrols in 2008, twice the number of patrols conducted in 2007.

China's strategic ballistic missile submarines have never conducted a deterrent patrol.

Highest Patrol Rate Ever

The 12 patrols conducted in 2008 constitute the highest patrol rater ever for the Chinese submarine fleet. They follow six patrols conducted in 2007, two in 2006, and zero in 2005. China has four times refrained from conducting submarine patrols since 1981, and the previous peaks were six patrols conducted in 2000 and 2007 (see Figure 1).

Figure 1:
Chinese Submarine Patrols 1981-2008


Chinese attack submarines conducted 12 patrols in 2008, double the number from 2007. Yet Chinese ballistic missile submarines have yet to conduct a deterrent patrol.
.

While the increase is submarine patrols is important, it has to be seen in comparison with the size of the Chinese submarine fleet. With approximately 54 submarines, the patrol rate means that each submarine on average goes on patrol once every four and a half years. In reality, the patrols might have been carried out by only a small portion of the fleet, perhaps the most modern and capable types. A new class of nuclear-powered Shang-class (Type-093) attack submarines is replacing the aging Han-class (Type-091).

Few of the details for assessing the implications of the increased patrol rate are known, nor is it known precisely what constitutes a patrol in order for U.S. naval intelligence to count it. A request for the definition has been denied. It is assumed that a patrol in this case involves an extended voyage far enough from the submarine's base to be different from a brief training exercise.

In comparison with other major navies, twelve patrols are not much. The patrol rate of the U.S. attack submarine fleet, which is focused on long-range patrols and probably operate regularly near the Chinese coast, is much higher with each submarine conducting at least one extended patrol per year. But the Chinese patrol rate is higher than that of the Russian navy, which in 2008 conducted only seven attack submarine patrols, the same as in 2007.

Still no SSBN Patrols

The declassified information also shows that China has yet to send one of its strategic submarines on patrol. The old Xia, China's first SSBN, completed a multi-year overhaul in late-2007 but did not sail on patrol in 2008.


Neither the Xia-class (Type-092) ballistic missile submarine (image) nor the new Jin-class (Type-094) have ever conducted a deterrent patrol.
.

The first of China's new Jin-class (Type-094) SSBN was spotted in February 2008 at the relatively new base on Hainan Island, where a new submarine demagnetization facility has been constructed. But the submarine did not conduct a patrol the remainder of the year. A JL-2 missile was test launched Bohai Bay in May 2008, but it is yet unclear from what platform.

Two or three more Jin-class subs are under construction at the Huludao (Bohai) Shipyard, and the Pentagon projects that up to five might be built. How these submarines will be operated as a "counter-attack" deterrent remains to be seen, but they will be starting from scratch.
 
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Our sats can conceivably track if the subs are in shallow water. In the deep ocean not sure.
Here is a link where Israelis are working with US satellite program using TECSAR technology (possibly in a naval role)

http://theasiandefence.blogspot.com/2009/12/israel-pushes-new-satellite-as-solution.html

Israel Pushes New Satellite as Solution to U.S. Space Radar Needs



By Stew Magnuson

Israel Aerospace Industries has joined with Northrop Grumman in hopes that they can sell time on a radar imaging satellite to U.S. government agencies.Israel's Ministry of Defense and contractor IAI developed the TecSAR satellite and is now looking to recoup some of its investment by following in the footsteps of commercial imagery and communication satellite companies that sell their services to U.S. military and intelligence agencies, said Seth Guanu, director of business development for national systems at Northrop Grumman.Radar satellites have an advantage over spacecraft that rely on visible light to take high-resolution images because they can peer through clouds and darkness."They spent a fair amount of money for this satellite for their own military purposes "¦ they have a definite interest in exporting that capability to other markets, and the U.S. is a natural potential market for them," Guanu said.

The Air Force and the National Reconnaissance Office pursued their own radar satellite program, which was cancelled last year because of technical difficulties and cost overruns. The NRO is believed to have other classified radar capabilities, but the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the Air Force apparently want more, and less restrictive imagery, than the NRO spacecraft can provide. Commercial radar satellites could be used to peer at less important, or secondary, targets when the NRO satellites are focused on more important objects. They also do not have the same secrecy restrictions, and information gleaned from them can be shared with allies and those without top-secret clearances more easily.

 
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Our sats can conceivably track if the subs are in shallow water. In the deep ocean not sure.
another link of RISAT

http://www.marinebuzz.com/2009/04/30/marine-applications-of-indian-satellite-risat/

Marine Applications of Indian Satellite RISAT


India launched Radar Imaging Satellite RISAT-2 on April 20. Most of the media reported RISAT-2 as a spy satellite, because the satellite's clear imagery can also be used for military applications.Shocked by sea based attacks at Mumbai on November 26, 2008 India has accelerated the launch of RISAT-2 before the launch of RISAT-1 whichRISAT2_launch focuses on agricultural application.

India launched its first operational Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Satellite, IRS-1A on March 17, 1988. IRS satellites were designed to provide data in the visible and near infrared region of Electro Magnetic spectrum. Electro-optic imaging sensors working in this spectrum, can only collect data during day time and can not penetrate through clouds and fog to collect data.

To ensure non stop collection of remote sensing data, RISAT-2 was launched. RISAT uses Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) working in microwave bands. The atmosphere is very transparent to microwaves irrespective of day,night,cloud and fog conditions.

Some interesting features of RISAT-2 are:

* A new class of remote sensing satellite. RISAT2_stowed
* An eye in the sky, all time, all weather, see all, surveillance satellite.
* Launched by Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, PSLV – C 12.
* Orbits at an altitude of 550 km with an inclination of 41 degree.
* Weighs 300 kg.
* Orbit period of 90 minutes.
* The satellite has been built with the cooperation from Israel Aerospace Industries.
* The satellite is reported to be a replica of Israeli TECSAR satellite launched by Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) in January this year.
* The satellite will enhance ISRO's capability for earth observation, especially during floods, cyclones, landslides and in disaster management in a more effective way.

RISAT has many applications in the field of agriculture,oceanography,forestry,geology and hydrology.

Marine applications of RISAT:

* Monitoring oil spills in the sea: Oil spill images can be viewed clearly and the source of the spill also can be found out.
* Ships at sea can be detected and tracked.
* Natural seepage from oil deposits can also be observed to assess suitable locations for offshore drilling.
* Marine scientists can study wind,current,eddies and internal waves through the radar backscatter from the ocean surface.

* In shallow waters, imagery can be used to study the sea bottom topography. Altimeters using SAR can also be used for ocean floor mapping. RISAT2_deployed
* From the imagery, ocean waves and their direction of displacement can be found out for wave forecasting and for marine climatology.
* In Arctic and Antarctic area, ice formation including ice type and ice concentration can be assessed for navigation in ice-infested waters.
 
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http://www.defenceforum.in/forum/showthread.php/10387-US-satellites-shadow-China-s-submarines

US satellites shadow China's submarines

By Peter J Brown

The People's Liberation Army's Navy (PLAN) submarines cannot spot United States satellites high overhead as the submarines leave their bases at Sanya on Hainan Island, Qingdao in Shandong province and Ningbo in Zhejiang province, and head for deeper water.

Plenty of very deep water can be found in the South China Sea, especially in the zone north of the Spratly Islands, east of the Paracels, and south of the Luzon Strait.

"A more challenging area for submarines to operate undetected is the East China Sea, which is quite shallow from the Chinese coastline up to the Okinawa Trough with a depth of only 30 to 60 fathoms [180 to 360 feet] in most places," said associate professor Peter Dutton with the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College. "Much of the water space [in the South China Sea] is more than 2,000 fathoms deep," said Dutton.

Detecting submarines via satellite is a form of Non-Acoustic Anti-Submarine Warfare (NAASW). Lasers, infrared and other detectors and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in space may be used as part of this NAASW activity. Satellites might see subtle undersea disturbances caused by submarines, watch wave patterns on or beneath the sea surface, or detect subtle variations in ocean temperature.

This is not to be confused with satellite communications, nor is an "EO" or "Earth Observation" satellite to be confused with "EO" as in an "Electro-Optical" means of detecting submarines.

Over the next 18 months, the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) - operator of the US spy satellite fleet - is planning multiple satellite launches, and China must assume that one or more of these new US surveillance satellites will help support US Navy efforts to locate and track PLAN submarines.

Satellites form a network along with undersea sensors and detectors fixed on the sea floor or drifting in the open ocean as well as devices mounted on other submarines, ships, unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs), aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Many are skeptical that satellites can perform NAASW missions effectively, reliably and at reasonable cost.

"The natural disturbances of the sea surface due to wind and tides, it seems to me, are very likely to mask any disturbance due to a submarine passage, and so even if this were a viable detection technique, it seems to me so limited in application that it would not be worth the investment," said one former US Navy sonar expert.

In April, a source told RIA Novosti, a Russian newspaper, that Russia had developed a novel satellite module "used for both defense and civilian purposes, in particular, providing meteorological data", and it can "carry out remote sensing of the sea and detect submerged submarines". This will be tested in space perhaps as early as next year. [1]

"Submarine detection, by any means, is a classified and highly guarded topic. The fact that the Russians are talking about it is the most interesting aspect of this announcement," said Brian Whitehouse, president of Nova Scotia-based OEA Technologies, Inc. He co-authored a paper with Daniel Hutt in 2008 about spaceborne sensors, ocean intelligence, and the maritime battlespace. [2]

The satellite in question is apparently the first of three small Russian Kanopus (Konopus) remote sensing satellites.

"This satellite is planned for 2011 and it will carry an Earth observing payload that includes a sensor for studying the underwater light environment," said Dr Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Massachusetts-based Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who is also the editor of Jonathan's Space Report. "I cannot evaluate the claim that this will let them detect the wakes of submarines. I do not believe that such technology is being used operationally at the moment. I am not aware of relevant flight experiments, but they may have occurred."

Russia has previously demonstrated its satellite sub-hunting skills. Swedish satellite expert Sven Grahn identified the Russian Almaz-1 satellite which was launched in 1991 as a submarine-detection satellite that could see the surface wake or trail of a submerged sub. Besides this satellite, the Russians deployed other large, nuclear-powered and radar-equipped ocean surveillance satellites.

"Russian satellites known as RORSATs used radar to track surface ships, but the US Navy was not concerned that our subs could be detected, much less tracked. The signals, even if they existed, would be so wrapped into random noise that extracting any usable intelligence from them proved impossible," author James Oberg, a top US expert on Soviet and Russian space programs, told Asia Times Online. "The cancellation of that [Soviet] satellite program followed at least three accidental re-entries of debris. The laws of physics compelled them to orbit as low as possible, creating high air drag."

The theoretical boundary below which satellites cannot successfully maintain their orbits is approximately 160 kilometers above the Earth.

The Soviet space station Mir may have served as a platform for related research activities in the same way that the US Skylab once served as a platform for space radar testing in 1970s.

In the late 1990s, sub-hunting satellites made headlines. An American scientist, Peter Lee, was caught and convicted of passing sensitive information to China about the so-called Radar Ocean Imaging (ROI) joint project which involved the United K and the US. A decision by the US Navy based on concerns about further disclosures about the nature and scope of the ROI project echoes to this day.

"Peter Lee's case was they had this guy giving this very sensitive data to the Chinese on underwater detection of submarines. They ran into this case where the navy wouldn't allow a court case against him because of the data. So they had a bargain plea, and he got off, basically. For stealing very high-level stuff, he gets probably, what, a couple of months in a halfway house," former US ambassador to China, James Lilley, told PBS in 2004. [3]

China obtained relevant information from Russia, too.

"Chinese experts reportedly received technical assistance from Russian satellite experts in years following the Soviet Union's collapse," said associate professor Andrew Erickson at the China Maritime Studies Institute. "Specialists at the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environmental Dynamics have researched ship detection using [SAR]."

Maritime surveillance became a top priority at the national level when China's so-called, "863 State High-Technology Development Plan" was activated. And China's fleet of Haiyang ocean surveillance satellites will grow to three when Haiyang-2A is launched later this year

Prior to the ROI program, the US SEASAT ocean satellite project which was launched by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 1978 carried a SAR into space for maritime surveillance purposes. After just over 100 days in space, SEASAT suddenly stopped working due to a short circuit in the design of its solar panels.

"Rumors suggested it had been turned off or sabotaged. There was a claim that SEASAT had mapped a field of World War 2-era shipwrecks on the floor of the English Channel," said Oberg.

A US Navy oceanographer from Australia, Paul Scully-Power, who became the first oceanographer in space, flew on the space shuttle Challenger (STS - 41G) in 1984. The US Navy later admitted that the mission had successfully detected the undersea or internal waves generated by a submarine which had been tracked successfully at relatively shallow depths. This was deemed, "incredibly important to us" and was reported by the Washington Post in 1985 - quoting a senior US Navy admiral at the time. [4]

In mid-May, by the way, the final flight of the space shuttle Atlantis (STS-132) will include a longtime submariner, US Navy captain Stephen Bowen.

According to naval analyst and author Norman Polmar, certain satellites can track submarine wakes, but are unable to do so continuously nor all the time, and not in all underwater environments. A submarine's depth, and speed along with the characteristics of the ocean bottom and water clarity, among other things, come into play here.

"A submarine is a relatively small, finite object - perhaps 300 to 500 feet [91 meters to 152 meters] in length in most cases - but the submarine's wake is persistent and stretches out for miles," said Polmar.

While the PLAN submarine fleet is the largest and most diverse in Asia, and very soon the fastest growing in the world, the PLAN's nuclear submarines are relatively easy to find. It is the diesel/electric submarines - and those equipped with so-called air-independent propulsion systems in particular - that are much harder to detect.

"The US Office of Naval Intelligence's unclassified July 2009 report on the PLAN suggests that some of the PLAN's diesel submarines are already extremely quiet, but its nuclear submarines remain relatively noisy," said Erickson.

US satellites play an increasingly important communications role in ASW, and are critical to the US Navy's Persistent Littoral Undersea Surveillance Network (PLUSNet), ForceNet and Sea Shield programs, to name a few. In addition, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is funding the Tactical Relay Information Network which uses lasers to instantly beam vital messages to submerged US subs as they are underway and perhaps chasing down other subs.

This writer speculates that as many as a dozen countries have operated sensors aboard satellites involved in some form of NAASW research. Others may disagree with this assessment.

Whitehouse and Hutt, for example, stated that, "many of these sensors are not of immediate practical benefit to military operations".

Keep in mind that commercial satellite ventures, and public - private partnerships such as Germany's RapidEye AG offer all sorts of satellite imagery.

Smaller, less expensive satellites possibly flying in formation over the ocean may offer significant advantages here. They can train their sensors and cameras on a single spot as they pass by in formation. California-based Microcosm Inc, for example, is developing the NanoEye small-satellite system, which comes equipped with basic or advanced electro-optical and infrared sensor payloads.

"Smaller satellites flying in formation may seem attractive for reasons of cost and coverage, but larger satellites offer far more advantages in terms of real capabilities," said Polmar. "Simply because of their small size, the smaller satellites are less capable, offer less electrical power and you cannot put much on them unlike much larger satellites."

The real advantage comes from the entire satellite-enabled infrastructure - or systems of systems - which links the powerful space-based sensors and detectors with those mounted on surrounding ships, subs, UUVs, aircraft, helicopters and UAVs - including the new "Sea Avenger" - so that all this surveillance data merges together to form a "common undersea picture" which can be instantly shared across the entire ASW community.

Aircraft and UAVs lingering overhead can mimic surveillance satellites, and their presence is an important aspect of the US "Maritime Domain Awareness" strategy. Another option involves inserting additional maritime surveillance assets above conventional aircraft and UAVs, and beneath the satellites.

For example, the US Navy is interested in DARPA's "Integrated Sensor Is the Structure" (ISIS) program, which is, in effect, an integrated stratospheric airship/radar - the stratosphere is found at an altitude of roughly 10 to 50 kilometers above Earth - featuring a 600-kilometer-wide sensor radius. In fact, DARPA included a slide during a briefing last year that showed how a single ISIS on station over the Luzon Strait could conduct surveillance operations covering the entire Strait from Taiwan to the northern Philippines, and almost as far west almost as the coast of China.

"No single sensor/platform combination has all the answers. Every sensor has its limitations. As a result, each application usually involves a suite of sensors, platforms and computer-based models," said Whitehouse and Hutt.

Associate professor Kazuto Suzuki of Hokkaido University's Public Policy School described Japan's Maritime Self Defense Force (MSDF) as "one of the best ASW forces without using satellite capability".

"There is no discussion of a satellite infrastructure for ASW. Satellites are only useful for detecting activities [at submarine bases]. MSDF and the 7th Fleet of the US Navy are sharing the work for ASW, and there is a strong confidence between them," said Suzuki.

However, over the years, Japan has launched many advanced remote sensing/earth observation, meteorological, and engineering test satellites - exactly the types of satellites which are ideally suited for conducting satellite-based NAASW research and development.

One relevant joint NASA-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency project on the International Space Station recently tested a maritime hyperspectral imager. This coincided with work on the same type of imager done as part of the US Navy's Tactical Space Innovative Naval Prototype program involving so-called TacSats and their maritime satellite links to buoys and "unattended" sensors - perhaps UUV-mounted sensors.

China routinely uses ocean-centric satellite imagery provided by the US, Japanese and Europeans. Their own undersea mapping projects such as one done recently as part of a larger and more comprehensive Chinese survey of the South China Sea rely heavily on access to this data. [5]

The world's vast oceans have not been rendered completely transparent, but for over three decades, satellites have been transforming the way we view them.

As the US Congress scrutinizes the US-Russian START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) successor and possible restrictions on the future use of US submarine launch tubes for anti-missile purposes, new potential threats to submarines need to be examined carefully.

Finally, the sinking in March 2010 of the South Korean destroyer Cheonan - important evidence in the form of "satellite imagery" is surfacing although the investigation is still underway [6] - serves to remind everyone that work must continue to help thwart future surprise attacks.


SAR satellites same as TECSAR and RISAT have been used in tracking subs in a naval role since 1978
 
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SHASH2K2

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I am not sure about capabilities of RISAT 2 but surely they cannot match USA satellites. We need to develop very strong and capable satellites that can spot chinese subs. In my opinion they will be biggest threat in any conventional war.USA will not transfer its technolagy to any country unless they develop something better than that .
Hope our Israeli friend will come again to our help.
 

SHASH2K2

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SRIHARIKOTA: The radar imaging satellite (RISAT-2) launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) from Sriharikota on Monday is owned and operated by ISRO, its chief said, dismissing reports labelling RISAT-2 a "spy satellite".

"This is an imaging satellite that can identify features on ground. There is nothing as a spy satellite. Though the satellite has a global coverage we will use it only for our use," ISRO chief G Madhavan Nair told reporters at a post-launch press conference.

He was reacting to media reports terming RISAT a spy satellite or defence surveillance satellite launched by ISRO's workhorse rocket Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) early morning on Monday.

However, informed sources said the satellite's synthetic aperture radar gives it day-night capability and the ability to look through clouds and fog, thus giving it defence applications.

The satellite launched on Monday is actually RISAT-2 that was fast-tracked in the wake of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks in place of the RISAT-1 that ISRO is developing.

The PSLV rocket also sent into orbit a micro-educational satellite Anusat built by Anna University with funding support from ISRO.

Though the launch went as planned, ISRO scientists spent tense hours Sunday as one of the umbilical chords holding the rocket to the launch pad fell off, damaging nearly six connectors.

"Six hours of countdown time were spent on setting things right," Nair said.

According to Nair, RISAT-2 has been positioned at a 41 degree inclination to enable it revisit a spot at frequent intervals.

Queried about the need for ISRO developing another such satellite, Ranganath R. Navalgund, director of the Space Applications Centre, said: "With two satellites the frequency of visits increases."

According to him, satellites orbiting in some frequencies cannot look at the earth very closely.

Not disclosing the price paid to the Israel Aerospace Industry, with which RISAT has been developed, Nair said: "Normally a remote sensing satellite weighing one tonne would cost around Rs 80 crore. This spacecraft is much smaller."

India now joins a select group of countries in the world like Canada, Israel, Japan and a few others in having such a precision satellite.

He said the launch of Anusat has prompted six other educational institutions like IIT-Kanpur and VIT-Vellore to approach ISRO for building such satellites.

Answering a question on the six month old Chandrayaan-1 moon mission, an official said the satellite was continuously sending data as it orbited the lunar surface.

On the status of the Chandrayaan-2 project, TK Alex, director of the ISRO Satellite Centre, said: "The project planning is in full swing. The two phased project will involve orbiting the moon and soft landing on the moon surface."

He said ISRO is working with the Russian space agency and is in the process of finalizing the test equipment that would go with the two rovers that would soft land on the moon.

"Engineering activity for the project is on and the launch will happen sometime in 2011 or early 2012," Alex said.

According to K Radhakrishnan, director of the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, ISRO's manned space mission involving an outlay of Rs 12,400 crore has got the green signal from the Planning Commission.

"We have to build a new launch pad, facilitation centre for the crew and mission control centre for manned rockets," he said, adding the rocket's cabin would also have to be certified for human worthiness.

"We will first send a couple of developmental flights (test rockets) before putting human beings inside a rocket," Radhakrishnan added.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/RISAT-2-not-a-spy-satellite-ISRO-chief/articleshow/4422951.cms
 

neo29

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The map says it all. It will be difficult for PLAN to dominate indian ocean. how long will those refuelling stations serve them? During war india would probably bomb them ( except gwadar ) or circle them. it would be difficult for PLA to get support from land. even though the PLAN is massive still IN will have an upper hand in the indian ocean.

Besides i heard that those refuelling stations are for chinese commercial ships since china did not want to depend on indian ports for refuelling.
 

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