Chinese Regional Jets & Airliners

[jai jaganath]

If you see such developments obviously things are moving on the ground. Be it LCA Mk-2 or AMCA Mk-1 or Saras Mk-2 . And here's the article I was searching for since last night. Apparently GoI has already approved INR 6000 cr for the entire program way back in 2019 .

Ministry of Defence gives nod for proposal to produce Saras civil aircraft developed by NAL

Bengaluru, Feb 21 (UNI) In a major stride towards development of indigenous civilian aircraft , the Union Finance Ministry has approved a Rs 6000 crore project proposal produce Saras aircrarft developed National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL), the premier establishment under DRDO.

www.uniindia.com

This uni source was quoted earlier to prove this
But the point is during that period the project revival was done due to which funds were approved for improvements on mk1 and designing along with head on permission for mk2
Basically funds was for improvement of mk1 + design and development of mk2
Not prototyping
If the complete funding for mk2 was given I mean till prototyping then why are they asking for extra funds that's too mere 100crs where they would have got 6000crs for mk2 as assumed

DSIR seeks Rs 100 cr for SARAS to take off

SARAS is India’s first multi-purpose civilian aircraft which is being developed by the National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL).

bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com

 

[Azaad]

This uni source was quoted earlier to prove this
But the point is during that period the project revival was done due to which funds were approved for improvements on mk1 and designing along with head on permission for mk2
Basically funds was for improvement of mk1 + design and development of mk2
Not prototyping
If the complete funding for mk2 was given I mean till prototyping then why are they asking for extra funds that's too mere 100crs where they would have got 6000crs for mk2 as assumed

DSIR seeks Rs 100 cr for SARAS to take off

SARAS is India’s first multi-purpose civilian aircraft which is being developed by the National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL).

bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com

Well obviously there's a shortfall. That's the reason why the demand for additional funds & by the looks of it , it's for development of the prototypes. The article you've linked literally states this


The Department informed the Committee that CSIR-NAL has already commenced design testing , realisation & certification of the Mk-2 version & the project is now heading for detailed engineering & design which is what else but CDR . Besides this article is more than 2 yrs old . It obviously means the CDR is over else how would NAL be ordering components with delivery dates set for a year or thereabouts for long lead items .

 

[jai jaganath]

Well obviously there's a shortfall. That's the reason why the demand for additional funds & by the looks of it , it's for development of the prototypes. The article you've linked literally states this


The Department informed the Committee that CSIR-NAL has already commenced design testing , realisation & certification of the Mk-2 version & the project is now heading for detailed engineering & design which is what else but CDR . Besides this article is more than 2 yrs old . It obviously means the CDR is over else how would NAL be ordering components with delivery dates set for a year or thereabouts for long lead items .

They meant basically pdr is completed and it's heading towards cdr
1st point if they have exhausted all of the 6000crs in pdr only that means 100crs is for designing and development bcoz don't tell me in 100crs they would complete both cdr and prototyping
That means they would require funds for prototyping and can't give orders for parts until approved
2nd point its on the reasoning that as this article is of 2 years old so cdr would have been complete but it's not
The recent interview PD says

So we are expecting very soon the drawings (SARAS MK II) to be released and one year down the line, we expect that once the drawings are released, progressively we will start our manufacturing process and sometime next year (2024), we should have the components coming together and we are then able to essentially roll out the aircraft (prototype) and once that is complete, then the flight testing part will start

This clearly means cdr would be completed before year end so there is certainly delay in project and that too in cdr bcoz AFAIK post pdr no one will take 2-3 years for cdr
Either they are confused or some serious backlogs occurring
Anyways pin me when u see rolling out of saras mk2

 

[Azaad]

They meant basically pdr is completed and it's heading towards cdr
1st point if they have exhausted all of the 6000crs in pdr only that means 100crs is for designing and development bcoz don't tell me in 100crs they would complete both cdr and prototyping
That means they would require funds for prototyping and can't give orders for parts until approved
2nd point its on the reasoning that as this article is of 2 years old so cdr would have been complete but it's not
The recent interview PD says

So we are expecting very soon the drawings (SARAS MK II) to be released and one year down the line, we expect that once the drawings are released, progressively we will start our manufacturing process and sometime next year (2024), we should have the components coming together and we are then able to essentially roll out the aircraft (prototype) and once that is complete, then the flight testing part will start

This clearly means cdr would be completed before year end so there is certainly delay in project and that too in cdr bcoz AFAIK post pdr no one will take 2-3 years for cdr
Either they are confused or some serious backlogs occurring
Anyways pin me when u see rolling out of saras mk2

Look we don't know the funding patterns . Besides this is a government funded venture subject to scrutiny by various overseeing busybody organisations like internal committees of Parliament , CAG , internal audits etc . What this means is that the slightest deviation from the original scope of work & bill of materials sanctioned & NAL has to approach the GoI once more for funds , as the funds allocated are for a different purpose even though the monies may well be present with NAL to fund the venture.

I think the INR 6000 cr sanctioned caters not just to the prototypes but LSP production of the first 15-20 aircraft as the projected price varies between INR 45-50 cr . Having stated that , this once again is pure speculation on my behalf. For perspective check on the budgeted allocations for the LCA Mk-1 program & as of the present the budgeted allocations for the LCA Mk-2 program.


Secondly pls get this into your head , orders for sub systems & components can't be given without freezing the CDR. It's only on freezing the CDR that detailed shopfloor drawings are released based on which orders placed upon vendors which is a step wise process wherein the complete schedule of shopfloor drawings would be released by the end of this year or early next yr.

Who's this PD you keep referring to & what does he have to say. ? Link his interview here.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

China built a 19-seat turboprop called the Y-12 and in fact was probably the first civilian aircraft that China exported:

Along with military versions of course,

Something like this is good start that can ultimately lead to Airbus or Boeing putting a line in country. If they feel you'll eventually build aircraft of your own anyways, they'd feel a lot more pressure to put a line in your country to retain sales.

And if they do, Airbus or Boeing would be entrusting your workforce with their reputation and ultimately with their own livelihood so it has to be very good leverage, negotiation and trust involved.

Chinese are proud of the 19-seat Harbin Y-12 but to be able to convince Airbus to allow the assembling the 440-seat A350 in China Wow!

 

[jai jaganath]

Look we don't know the funding patterns . Besides this is a government funded venture subject to scrutiny by various overseeing busybody organisations like internal committees of Parliament , CAG , internal audits etc . What this means is that the slightest deviation from the original scope of work & bill of materials sanctioned & NAL has to approach the GoI once more for funds , as the funds allocated are for a different purpose even though the monies may well be present with NAL to fund the venture.

I think the INR 6000 cr sanctioned caters not just to the prototypes but LSP production of the first 15-20 aircraft as the projected price varies between INR 45-50 cr . Having stated that , this once again is pure speculation on my behalf. For perspective check on the budgeted allocations for the LCA Mk-1 program & as of the present the budgeted allocations for the LCA Mk-2 program.


Secondly pls get this into your head , orders for sub systems & components can't be given without freezing the CDR. It's only on freezing the CDR that detailed shopfloor drawings are released based on which orders placed upon vendors which is a step wise process wherein the complete schedule of shopfloor drawings would be released by the end of this year or early next yr.

Who's this PD you keep referring to & what does he have to say. ? Link his interview here.

Okay so after giving 6000crs in 2019 for designing development prototyping and 15 lsp according to u
They need barely 100crs more in 2021 to complete the project
Again do they think we are fools
That 6000crs was for cleared for revival of mk1 and 15 mk1 planes and mk2 dealing and development
That means the cost of 15lsp wouldn't have reached then as iaf hasn't placed any orders
Bcoz iaf first promised to order 15 mk1 and then latter as usual changed goalpost to 15 mk2
That's what I understood by various reports not clearly mentioned anywhere regarding this goalpost shifting
So they required 100crs extra for design and development of mk2
When did I say they can give orders before completion of cdr
Read my post I have written 10 times that u cant order until cdr isn't over and funds released respectively
Post cdr and funds they can give orders for subsystem
I have written it literally 10 times
My point was until now they haven't completed cdr which will happen by end of 2023 but claiming that by 2024 they will have prototype
Ab samajh me aya ki kya bolna chahata hun and why repeating 36 months timeline
Even this thing has been written multiple times
PD= project director

 

[Azaad]

Okay so after giving 6000crs in 2019 for designing development prototyping and 15 lsp according to u
They need barely 100crs more in 2021 to complete the project
Again do they think we are fools
That 6000crs was for cleared for revival of mk1 and 15 mk1 planes and mk2 dealing and development
That means the cost of 15lsp wouldn't have reached then as iaf hasn't placed any orders
Bcoz iaf first promised to order 15 mk1 and then latter as usual changed goalpost to 15 mk2
That's what I understood by various reports not clearly mentioned anywhere regarding this goalpost shifting
So they required 100crs extra for design and development of mk2
When did I say they can give orders before completion of cdr
Read my post I have written 10 times that u cant order until cdr isn't over and funds released respectively
Post cdr and funds they can give orders for subsystem
I have written it literally 10 times
My point was until now they haven't completed cdr which will happen by end of 2023 but claiming that by 2024 they will have prototype
Ab samajh me aya ki kya bolna chahata hun and why repeating 36 months timeline
Even this thing has been written multiple times
PD= project director

I asked you specifically to link the post where the PD stated the CDR wasn't completed & it was due to be completed next year.

Regarding allocation of funds it's for a specific task which means if you haven't budgeted for it & there's no funds left for it ,you go back to the respective Ministry with a proposal . Alternatively if affairs can be managed within the allocated budget but you haven't budgeted for the said item or activity , you go back to the ministry with a request to approve deviation in plans. That's how the system works or that's how I've understood the system works. If you've a better idea of how the system works I'm all ears .

OTOH you're stuck like a record on just a couple of points full of pre conceived notions not taking into account that whenever you take up things for the first time you will run into difficulties , time & budget over runs. For perspective look at the proposed & actual T/Ls of the HAL trainer jet programs like the HTT & the IJT or the ADA - LCA program.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Keyvan Aviation from Turkey is a consultant company specializing in EASA application. This shows us where the C919 and COMAC is planning:

 

[jai jaganath]

I asked you specifically to link the post where the PD stated the CDR wasn't completed & it was due to be completed next year.

Regarding allocation of funds it's for a specific task which means if you haven't budgeted for it & there's no funds left for it ,you go back to the respective Ministry with a proposal . Alternatively if affairs can be managed within the allocated budget but you haven't budgeted for the said item or activity , you go back to the ministry with a request to approve deviation in plans. That's how the system works or that's how I've understood the system works. If you've a better idea of how the system works I'm all ears .

OTOH you're stuck like a record on just a couple of points full of pre conceived notions not taking into account that whenever you take up things for the first time you will run into difficulties , time & budget over runs. For perspective look at the proposed & actual T/Ls of the HAL trainer jet programs like the HTT & the IJT or the ADA - LCA program.

So we are expecting very soon the drawings (SARAS MK II) to be released and one year down the line, we expect that once the drawings are released, progressively we will start our manufacturing process and sometime next year (2024), we should have the components coming together and we are then able to essentially roll out the aircraft (prototype) and once that is complete, then the flight testing part will start

India’s small aircraft mfg ambitions to take wings in 2024 with SARAS MK II prototypes - ET Infra

In an interaction with ET Infra in February at the Aero India event held at Yelahanka Air Force base in Bengaluru, Dr. Abhay A. Pashilkar, Director, CSIR-National Aerospace Laboratories, shared the current status of India's small aircraft programme, which is now getting closer to flight testing...

infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Regarding funds according to u that 6000crs was solely for mk2 program
No sane institution will spend more than that on a 19 seater plane and moreover many of the designing and baseline being proved on mk1
Point is this 6000crs was for revival of mk1 + orders for 15 lsp by iaf which haven't been signed + design and development
It doesn't include funds for prototyping and production that will be given post drawings being released to govt or cdr being completed
They faced shortage of 100crs in design and development of mk2 due to which they went yo govt but it's unknown they were given or not
Atleast even after cost overruns delays tech building hal have delayed products
But NAL has been failed many institutions be it iaf govt or itself
I hope soem change prevails

 

[Azaad]

So we are expecting very soon the drawings (SARAS MK II) to be released and one year down the line, we expect that once the drawings are released, progressively we will start our manufacturing process and sometime next year (2024), we should have the components coming together and we are then able to essentially roll out the aircraft (prototype) and once that is complete, then the flight testing part will start

India’s small aircraft mfg ambitions to take wings in 2024 with SARAS MK II prototypes - ET Infra

In an interaction with ET Infra in February at the Aero India event held at Yelahanka Air Force base in Bengaluru, Dr. Abhay A. Pashilkar, Director, CSIR-National Aerospace Laboratories, shared the current status of India's small aircraft programme, which is now getting closer to flight testing...

infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Regarding funds according to u that 6000crs was solely for mk2 program
No sane institution will spend more than that on a 19 seater plane and moreover many of the designing and baseline being proved on mk1
Point is this 6000crs was for revival of mk1 + orders for 15 lsp by iaf which haven't been signed + design and development
It doesn't include funds for prototyping and production that will be given post drawings being released to govt or cdr being completed
They faced shortage of 100crs in design and development of mk2 due to which they went yo govt but it's unknown they were given or not
Atleast even after cost overruns delays tech building hal have delayed products
But NAL has been failed many institutions be it iaf govt or itself
I hope soem change prevails

Man are you actually dumb or are you playing dumb ? All this while in practically every post you've made you were literally harping on the fact that the CDR was incomplete "as per the PD's statements" according to you. When I challenged you to reference your claim you suddenly go silent on the CDR in this post & bring up drawings . Besides the reference you've linked here does nothing to underline your claims .

If anything it undermines your claims & supports mine i.e Detailed Shopfloor drawings are ALWAYS released post CDR for the mfg or procurement of
sub system . IT NEVER PRECEDES it. Which is why I asked you earlier if you came from a technical background. Evidently you don't which is why you keep making fundamental errors in understanding project management & then like a kid obstinately sticks to those contentious points even when you've been proven clearly wrong . Earlier you insisted I had claimed the Mk-2 was undergoing flight trials . When I challenged you to reproduce evidence of it here when I'd made no such claim , you backed off

Bookmark that article there as it provides a road map to the various steps required to be undertaken for certification. It's all there if you choose to parse thru the information contained in the article which I very much doubt you did . The Mk-2 requires 15-20 air flights to certify it's various sub systems & flight characteristics. The T/L given is one year from today i.e 2024 to get the sub assemblies ready , 2025 prototype roll out & taxi trials , 2026 Flight trials & certification. The reasons for such a short time to certification is also provided by yourself. Most of the heavy lifting was already done during the certification of the Mk-1. Thank God at least you got something right. There's hope yet for you for up until I read that statement of yours I was just about convinced I was wasting my time arguing with an idiot.

 

[jai jaganath]

Man are you actually dumb or are you playing dumb ? All this while in practically every post you've made you were literally harping on the fact that the CDR was incomplete "as per the PD's statements" according to you. When I challenged you to reference your claim you suddenly go silent on the CDR in this post & bring up drawings . Besides the reference you've linked here does nothing to underline your claims .

If anything it undermines your claims & supports mine i.e Detailed Shopfloor drawings are ALWAYS released post CDR for the mfg or procurement of
sub system . IT NEVER PRECEDES it. Which is why I asked you earlier if you came from a technical background. Evidently you don't which is why you keep making fundamental errors in understanding project management & then like a kid obstinately sticks to those contentious points even when you've been proven clearly wrong . Earlier you insisted I had claimed the Mk-2 was undergoing flight trials . When I challenged you to reproduce evidence of it here when I'd made no such claim , you backed off

Bookmark that article there as it provides a road map to the various steps required to be undertaken for certification. It's all there if you choose to parse thru the information contained in the article which I very much doubt you did . The Mk-2 requires 15-20 air flights to certify it's various sub systems & flight characteristics. The T/L given is one year from today i.e 2024 to get the sub assemblies ready , 2025 prototype roll out & taxi trials , 2026 Flight trials & certification. The reasons for such a short time to certification is also provided by yourself. Most of the heavy lifting was already done during the certification of the Mk-1. Thank God at least you got something right. There's hope yet for you for up until I read that statement of yours I was just about convinced I was wasting my time arguing with an idiot.

Again just echoing the same old points
It's u who have avoided few questions asked
I never went silent on cdr claim pls stop push unnecessary false comment
Drawings are released generally in very short time generally in 25-30 post cdr completion
Why is that so
Bcoz most of the drawings and designing would be completed in cdr itself

The CDR should be conducted when the Product Baseline has been achieved, allowing fabrication of hardware and coding of software deliverables to proceed. A rule of thumb is that 75 percent to 90 percent of (manufacturing quality) product drawings, software design specification(s), and associated instructions should be complete and that 100 percent of all safety-critical components (Critical Safety Items and Critical Application Items) drawings are complete
So if they are gonna release complete drawings by year end then cdr would have to be completed just a month ago
Don't play with words
I don't have to prove that PD claimed rollout of saras mk2 in 2024 bcoz I have provided enough source for that claim

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Another C919 coming into service!

 

[rockdog]

Another C919 coming into service!

View attachment 209434

In 2023, the three major airlines plan to introduce 33 domestically produced aircraft, including 11 ARJ21 aircraft from Air China, 9 ARJ21 aircraft from China Eastern Airlines, and 4 C919 aircraft from China Southern Airlines. This means that by the end of this year, the three major airlines will operate a total of 86 domestically produced aircraft, including 26 from Air China, 31 from China Eastern Airlines, and 29 from China Southern Airlines. The first batch of 5 C919 aircraft from China Eastern Airlines will also be delivered.

I think the orders are at least worth 4billions USD, and excludes long term maintainance fee.

Imagining 50% of amount will circulate inside China, hiring local workers...

I still remember when my client who used Oracle databbase, if they wanted tech support from official, they paid $150/hour, from the day when specialist left Oracle headquart.

The whole life cycle will save huge money and benefits local companies.

 

[rockdog]

Aviation industry is never just about P&L, it's more about politics.

Sometimes when your plane take off, you are making money:

Russia’s war on Ukraine redrew the map of the sky – but not for Chinese airlines

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/china-europe-airlines-russia-ukraine-airspace/index.html

I travelled with Finnair arond ten times, now its price is 30% than before since not access to Russia.

Maybe in following years sanctions to Russia would benefit C919 like A & B don't provide any tech support inside airlines to Russia.

 

[MiG-29SMT]

China built a 19-seat turboprop called the Y-12 and in fact was probably the first civilian aircraft that China exported:
View attachment 209395

Along with military versions of course,
View attachment 209396

Something like this is good start that can ultimately lead to Airbus or Boeing putting a line in country. If they feel you'll eventually build aircraft of your own anyways, they'd feel a lot more pressure to put a line in your country to retain sales.

And if they do, Airbus or Boeing would be entrusting your workforce with their reputation and ultimately with their own livelihood so it has to be very good leverage, negotiation and trust involved.

Chinese are proud of the 19-seat Harbin Y-12 but to be able to convince Airbus to allow the assembling the 440-seat A350 in China Wow!
View attachment 209397
View attachment 209399

ggod lies of the propagandist, A-350 is not assembled in China, it was just painted and fit the cabin, basic the seats

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Aviation industry is never just about P&L, it's more about politics.

Sometimes when your plane take off, you are making money:

Russia’s war on Ukraine redrew the map of the sky – but not for Chinese airlines

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/china-europe-airlines-russia-ukraine-airspace/index.html

I travelled with Finnair arond ten times, now its price is 30% than before since not access to Russia.

Maybe in following years sanctions to Russia would benefit C919 like A & B don't provide any tech support inside airlines to Russia.

Yes, it is pretty much the most political industry there is but market size matters and the ability and willingness to leverage it matters. Airbus would never happen if the Europeans didn't subsidized and protected its market. And it wouldn't survive to export all over the world uf the European market was big enough to support it during infancy.

Airbus' share of the Chinese market in 2008 was just 15% versus Boeing's 85% when it made a decision to create the Tianjin assembly line. Today it is over 50% of China's market and going up. The size of its market gave China leverage to get the Tianjin line.

You will not see this in Mexico or any other country outside the West -- and China

 

[SexyChineseLady]

A lot of it is numbers:

Airbus expects huge growth in the Chinese aviation market in the next 20 years. The European aerospace firm predicts that China’s air traffic will grow by 5.3 per cent annually, significantly faster than the world average of 3.6 per cent.

This will lead to a demand for 8,420 passenger and freighter aircraft by 2041, representing more than 20 per cent of the world’s total demand ...
Boeing has expressed a similar level of optimism, expecting China will require 8,485 new planes to serve passengers and trade until 2041.

COMAC has over 1000 orders for the C919 and another 700 for ARJ-21. It will be a major success when it completes just the existing orders. Embraer's E series sold 1600 planes in past 20 years.

Just a quarter of China's own market by 2041 would result in over 2000 planes and would automatically make COMAC the third largest aircraft builder in the world and would not need to sell a single aircraft outside China.

If COMAC takes 50% replacing Boeing completely in China, it could concievably reach parity with Boeing since Boeing traditionally makes about 5000 aircraft each decade and a quarter of that usually comes from China!

The power of the market!

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Remembering the Y-10 and the Legacy of Shanghai Aircraft (COMAC's forefather):

Y-10 flew four decades before C919 in September of 1980. It flew 130 times all over China before being abruptly cancelled because of the political winds of the time. But its spirit has come back!

Never Give Up!

 

[MiG-29SMT]

A lot of it is numbers:

Airbus expects huge growth in the Chinese aviation market in the next 20 years. The European aerospace firm predicts that China’s air traffic will grow by 5.3 per cent annually, significantly faster than the world average of 3.6 per cent.

This will lead to a demand for 8,420 passenger and freighter aircraft by 2041, representing more than 20 per cent of the world’s total demand ...
Boeing has expressed a similar level of optimism, expecting China will require 8,485 new planes to serve passengers and trade until 2041.

COMAC has over 1000 orders for the C919 and another 700 for ARJ-21. It will be a major success when it completes just the existing orders. Embraer's E series sold 1600 planes in past 20 years.

Just a quarter of China's own market by 2041 would result in over 2000 planes and would automatically make COMAC the third largest aircraft builder in the world and would not need to sell a single aircraft outside China.

If COMAC takes 50% replacing Boeing completely in China, it could concievably reach parity with Boeing since Boeing traditionally makes about 5000 aircraft each decade and a quarter of that usually comes from China!

The power of the market!

orders equal just orders the aircraft do not exist yet, E-jets are flying of course mister propaganda does not distinguish reality, Embraer also sells business jet only Phenom 300 has sold 700, but propaganda guy never mentions fuel burn of ARJ-21 or C919

 

[SexyChineseLady]

The second prototype Y-10 at COMAC's headquarters in Shanghai. It will always be remembered and will always provide inspirations through the toughest of times!

What Shanghai Aircraft Manufacturing Plant had achieved 40 years ago in the Y-10 with little help and little resources will always be an inspiration for COMAC as it and China enters a New Age in Aviation with the C919!