China's vulnerability in Malacca Strait

panduranghari

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actually a blockade at malacca will guranntee involvement of US, japan, S.korean, and others. freedom of navigation important to ALL country, especially US. one of the reason US don't want any country to claim south china sea is because of this.
No it wont. Because America wants to screw China whenever it can.
 

Ray

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The Chinese oil pipeline along with the road and rail will be a great help to China in shortening the distance of Arab oil and avoiding the Malacca Straits.

But the Indian Ocean has a surfeit of US Navy presence.

And Myanmar is changing tack too!

Getting cosy with the western nations.
 

amoy

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The Chinese oil pipeline along with the road and rail will be a great help to China in shortening the distance of Arab oil and avoiding the Malacca Straits.

But the Indian Ocean has a surfeit of US Navy presence.

And Myanmar is changing tack too!

Getting cosy with the western nations.
Changing track? Nah, when the dust is off Suu Kyi or Thein Sein will realize they can't feed people with hope alone. Still the same old but basic problems they'd have to face which include:
1) Poverty
2) Ethnic conflicts

For the gas/oil pipeline Myanmar will receive billions per annum from China as passage fee, not inclusive of the gas it'll sell to China. Suu Kyi recently mediated in a copper mine spat China's investor had with local villagers (backed by NDL). In the end they're all pragmatists.

The US' presence in IOR is a positive force. Western nations are welcome so long as they come along with money.
 

Ray

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Changing track? Nah, when the dust is off Suu Kyi or Thein Sein will realize they can't feed people with hope alone. Still the same old but basic problems they'd have to face which include:
1) Poverty
2) Ethnic conflicts

For the gas/oil pipeline Myanmar will receive billions per annum from China as passage fee, not inclusive of the gas it'll sell to China. Suu Kyi recently mediated in a copper mine spat China's investor had with local villagers (backed by NDL). In the end they're all pragmatists.

The US' presence in IOR is a positive force. Western nations are welcome so long as they come along with money.
The people have been fed and poverty has been there and still Myanmar has survived.

The problem is that one superimpose western indices for poverty and happiness.

Orientals were never materialistic, They are spiritually endowed and are satisfied if they can make do a life.

It is only when money flows in, that greed erupts and then there is chaos.

With western inflow, the lifestyle will improve and so will it with the revenues for transit of oil to China. Indeed they are pragmatists.

But the West will do more so as to wean away the Burmese Govt, which has been already seen where the pro China Govt stopped the Chinese sponsored dam which was basically to give power to China.

They are realising that China is looking after their interest. They accepted all that since there was no other way. However, now it is not so that case with the West coming in.

The US naval presence is indeed great. However, given the rivalry with China, it can stop all imports to China that travels through the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca.
 

xizhimen

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US won't shoot themslves in the foot,it needs China more than any other countries do.
 

Ray

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US won't shoot themslves in the foot,it needs China more than any other countries do.

Do not delude yourself.

US is quite capable of levering her supremacy come what may. when the chips are down.
 

ice berg

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But the West will do more so as to wean away the Burmese Govt, which has been already seen where the pro China Govt stopped the Chinese sponsored dam which was basically to give power to China.

They are realising that China is looking after their interest. They accepted all that since there was no other way. However, now it is not so that case with the West coming in.

The US naval presence is indeed great. However, given the rivalry with China, it can stop all imports to China that travels through the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca.
Playing both sides against each other is more benefitable than have all your eggs in one basket.

As simple as that. No need to read too much into that.

China just has to compete against other western nations.

Before it was only China, now there are more competitors.
It is all business.
 

Ray

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Playing both sides against each other is more benefitable than have all your eggs in one basket.

As simple as that. No need to read too much into that.

China just has to compete against other western nations.

Before it was only China, now there are more competitors.
It is all business.
Correct.

Sold to the highest bidder!
 

nimo_cn

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People tend to simplify the issue by putting China and US at two completely rival positions, ignoring the fact that China and US share more mutual interests than any other countries.

As far as IOR is concerned, both China and US want the other half to be involved, both want to keep an growing India under control. Especially for US, nothing could be better than seeing China and India fighting each other over IOR.

As long as Chinese presence in IOR doesn't undermine America's supremacy in that region, I don't see why Americans are going to have a problem, After all, the focus of China-US contention lies in Asia-Pacific.
 

HeinzGud

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The mouth of the pipe still open into Bay of Bengal.

Try again.
It won't be hard as using Malacca strait, because if China can strengthen the Burmese navy against known Indian naval strategies then IMO Indian Navy would have hard time stopping the oil flow into China.

BTW using a pipe line through Pakistan or Afghanistan maybe more secure and viable to China.
 
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t_co

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It won't be hard as using Malacca strait, because if China can strengthen the Burmese navy against known Indian naval strategies then IMO Indian Navy would have hard time stopping the oil flow into China.

BTW using a pipe line through Pakistan or Afghanistan maybe more secure and viable to China.
Yep, a pipeline from Gwadar would place most Chinese oil imports outside the reach of the IN. In the event of Sino-Indian tensions, they'd have to reach into the Strait of Hormuz to shut down shipping which would raise risks (and hence shipping insurance) for every oil importer on Earth.
 

hit&run

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It won't be hard as using Malacca strait, because if China can strengthen the Burmese navy against known Indian naval strategies then IMO Indian Navy would have hard time stopping the oil flow into China.

BTW using a pipe line through Pakistan or Afghanistan maybe more secure and viable to China.
Too good to be true. Pakistan can not build IPI by its own, Chinese don't trust Pakistani or Afghan labour.

Burmese navy wouldn't get into any conflict neither we are going to attack Burmese oil pipes but a blockage of oil flow will be ensured. It has further eased our constraints and concerns of blanket blockade of Straits of Malacca which will effect International trade rout. Instead of blocking all we will be blocking one or two we can negotiate later.
 

amoy

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Okay all of your points well taken. India is overseeing the Bay of Bengal. Meanwhile, The Myanmar pipeline has much more implicaitons than avoiding Melacca that include

- less exposure to countries en route through Melacca Straits, then up SCS
- shorter transit time and lower costs for tanker/FPSO/LNG
- more engagement with Myanmar, who in turn receives revenue in billions from the pipeline as well as selling locally pumped gas
- underdeveloped Yunnan Prov. and Chongqing where the pipeline accesses China will get a boost for local industries/consumption

Of course that's only part of China's efforts for energy security

 

amoy

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China-Myanmar pipeline to open in May - FT.com

At present, about 80 per cent of China's crude oil imports are transported through the strategically important Strait of Malacca, but the new oil pipeline is expected to reduce China's reliance on that route by about one-third.
The new gas pipeline will have the capacity to carry 12bn cubic metres of gas a year to China, with most of that supply to come from Myanmar's gasfields in the Indian Ocean.

As China tries to diversify away from a heavy reliance on coal, its natural gas demand is forecast to grow by an average of 20 per cent a year between 2010 and 2015, with the main constraint being a lack of supply.

The crude oil pipeline scheduled to go into operation next year will be able to carry 22m tonnes a year of imported crude to China. The country imported a total 271m tonnes of crude oil in 2012.
 

s002wjh

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No it wont. Because America wants to screw China whenever it can.
right by stop shipping of resource china needed to make iphone and other products the export to wallyworlds, so american consumer can buy it ;)
 

amoy

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China will bid Adieu to Malacca Dilemma? :wave:
BEIJING (REUTERS) - China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the country's top oil and gas producer, has completed construction of a natural gas pipeline from Myanmar to China and is close to finishing a crude oil pipeline, the company said.

The pipelines are crucial strategic links which will allow China to bypass the Malacca Strait, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, and receive oil from the Middle East and Africa via the Indian Ocean and a port on Maday island, off the coast of Myanmar.


Myanmar Pipelines to Benefit China | StratRisks
Energy security has been a priority for the Chinese government since the early 1990s, when it began an economic gallop and became a net oil importer. China overtook the U.S. as the world's largest overall energy consumer in 2009, with coal accounting for the biggest share.

However, the share of oil and natural gas in the country's energy mix continues to grow because of rising demand for refined oil products, such as petrochemicals that serve as the building blocks of industry as well as gasoline for vehicles—about 55,000 new cars roll onto China's roads every day. In December, net oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. for the first time, and China's ascent as the world's biggest importer could become permanent as early as next year.

While the country's import dependency has prompted its state-owned energy firms to search for oil in faraway regions such as Africa, South America and the Middle East, it still faces a daunting challenge in getting that oil to its shores. Last year, the lion's share of China's total oil imports—about 4 million barrels a day out of 5.43 million barrels—was shipped through the narrow Strait of Malacca, near Singapore, where the U.S. Navy has a strong presence, and through the South China Sea, where territorial disputes with Southeast Asian neighbors have intensified as China has grown increasingly assertive. The two pipelines through these dusty highlands in Myanmar are crucial to Beijing's efforts to diversify its energy-supply routes.

China's twin pipelines stretch 800 kilometers from the Indian Ocean to the Chinese border, where they will supply oil and gas for China's rising energy needs.

"The way the Chinese have been able to develop their energy oil import infrastructure in recent years has been hugely impressive," said Richard Gorry, an analyst at consultancy JBC Energy. "When you're an economic powerhouse like China, you want to make sure you're not held hostage to potential supply disruptions in the Malacca Strait or South China Sea."
The gas will come from a new development off the coast of Myanmar, while the oil will be shipped from the Middle East and Africa on tankers. Today, the tankers transport the oil through the Strait of Malacca to China's coast. But as early as September, they will sail around the southern tip of India and head north into the Bay of Bengal to Myanmar's coastal town of Kyaukpyu, where the oil will be loaded into the new pipeline. The shortcut will reduce China's reliance on the Strait of Malacca route.

Myanmar's Energy Minister Than Htay said in an interview that natural gas will start flowing in June, followed by oil in September, though the Chinese have said oil may not start before year-end.
$1.4 bln income per annum for Myanmar from the transit alone. Chini Burmese Bhai Bhai :lol:
 

Armand2REP

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That means Chinese oil tankers have to go within strike distance of MKI. Is that really so wise?
 

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