China’s impressive. But India may have more long-term potential.

Rage

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No, most experts project India to overtake China's population in 20 years, and then continue to grow and finally stabilize (will it happen with fertility rate still hovering around 3?) around 1.8 to 2 billion people. The land of india can not support this many people, no matter how you cut it.

You might want to do some basic research before you spit anything out. India's Total Fertility Rate has seen a sharp decline by some 55% since the 1960's, from a TFR of 5.7 in the mid-60's to a TFR of 2.56 in 2009. It is on a continuous, uninterrupted downward trajectory and will plateau at sustainable levels. Population growth has declined from over 2% in the mid-90's to 1.34% in 2008.


China on the other hand, has hardly maxed out, we are just beginning. never before has China produced so many college graduates, never bofore has China had such first class infrastrucutre and never before has China had so many cutting-edge factories turning out great amount of goods wanted by people around the world. The truth is everyone not calling himself an indian nationalist, agrees that sky is limit for China.

And then, so is India.


Just because you have a few super tychoons (who together own like 20% of india) does not mean you have a better private sector, in fact China's private sector employs far more people, produces fa more goods and has created a GDP that is greater than India's total.

The GINI coefficient for China is greater than that for India, and significantly so. I'm sure you understand that means greater overall inequality in China. That reality is only palatably attenuated because China is at a further stage of economic growth today, as is safeworthy from the fact that China started its reforms a decade and a half before India.


India today has only 1% of people employed in manufacturing, you are not going to become a manufacturing power house any time soon.

Yet, manufacturing is growing at a stellar 18% a year, with accelerating growth rates over the past 5 years. If you think that would not make India a 'manufacturing powerhouse' any time soon, consider the fact that India has leapfrogged 3 places to become the 9th largest industrialized economy, in the last year alone, despite the fact that we are a largely agricultural and service-based economy. 'Course, moving upward will become more difficult, but to us it is only a matter of time.


A lot of indians feel good when looking at India and China's demographic trends. Not so fast, my friend: with added population you have more mouths to feed. If you can not create enough jobs for them (something india has not demonstrated it can), you are only going to do worse, a lot worse. India has more persants than China, both as percentage as well as in absolute numbers, yet india's agricultural products are only a fraction of what China manages to produce. Also India's manufacturing sector repoertedly employs only 1/10th as many workers as in China. These facts suggest strongly that unemployment is a huge problem in India, both in the cities as well as on the country side. The indian friends here would immediately point out at the impressive official 6.8% unemployment rate, but for me this is proof that india's economic data are unreliable and india's unemployment problem is understated. It will only get worse. Also the supposed advantage India in terms of available labour might never come true because in india only half of the population, I mean men, work whereas in China women not only work but will continue to work after giving birth.


India will soon find itself in a situation burdened with 2 billion people yet little jobs to go around.

You have some downright, incredibly weird ideas about India, not atypical of those who have distorted access to information. India's 'unemployed' find ready employment in the massive black sector, estimated to be between 2 and 3 times the size of the regular economy, that often render services and/or goods in a more timely and efficient manner than the manufacturing sectors in many first-world countries. Also because we do not have anything approaching the houkou system, which beneficial in its own right, allows labour to move freely and find employment in avenues where demand exists.

You cannot have 'proof' of the unreliability of "India's statistics" [however farcical this sounds coming from a Chinese] from deductions based on unstatistical estimates of India's unemployment and your inadequate knowledge of the Indian economy.


With 1.2 billion still growing people squeezed into a relatively small land, many of them poor, malnutritioned , illiterate and not particularly bright (see avg IQ), little resouces (water, mineral), little coal, virtually no oil, little industries, menacing muslim jihadis knocking on the door step as well as from within, if I were an indian, I would have sleepless nights, but obviously not the ones here. I admire your guys optimism but I truely fail to see where it comes from.

Rest assured. We think more about it than you do. But we have far more 'usable' land than you do, demonstrable in a comparison of the arable land between the two countries, also more regular climes and tropical topographic landscapes. China has vast land-locked deserts and mountains in the Xinjian region, together with vast ice fields in Tibet, that make such places inhospitable to settle. Infact, evaluations of sub-regional population density, will show you that China has far greater concentrations in its East and south-east sectors, the 'corridoors' of its economy, than does India in any comparable parts of its country.
 
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bigtiger

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Armand2REP

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so you Gordon-Chang yourself again?

why do you always want yourself to be "Gorden-Changed"?
Not at all... more like worst case scenerio+ of Victor Shih.

 
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badguy2000

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About the question of who is customer for China high speed rail. Here is one youtube video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oZ3vBspkmM

It was took at Feb 19th. Changsha south station. The train is from Wuhan to Guangzhou. You can see to board the train took three minutes. And there was no seat for people boarding on Changsha. They all have to stand. So it is full when the train started from Wuhan.

They board the train 9:30 pm from Changsha. Arrived to Guangzhou before 11:30 pm which is 707 km away. The price is 350 rmb about 50 dollars.

The Wuhan-Guangzhou capacity utilization last month is above 100% because they sold so many standing seats. The railway ministry said it was 101% while some China forum said it is 110%. The price is decided by state plan committee for the purpose of saving Airline companies. If it were decided by Railway ministry they can charge less rate and still got profit.

When talking about the profit, you need to keep one thing in mind: the major purpose for Railway ministry to build these high speed railway is to free its fright transport capacity in the existing lines. The state planning committee (I don’t know its current name) does not allow railway ministry to raise its passenger rate (the price has not changed for 20 years) but the fright rate is floatable. So if the railway ministry is a private company, they would stop all passenger train because of fright transport demand is so overwhelming. So the new high speed railway can allow railway ministry to do two things: 1, raise the passenger rate. 2, they can stop some passenger train in existing line and free the capacity so they can run more cargo fright service which is very profitable.

So if you are talking about high speed rail profit, the answer is if you include the free fright transport capacity of existing line, it is absolutely profitable. If you only calculate the high speed railway itself, the answer is mixed. For some line like Beijing-Shanghai, Bejing-Hongkang. Shanghai-Chengdu, the answer is pretty clear. For some other line connection inland cities. The answer is not that clear. For example like Xian-Zhengzhou, the capacity utilization is about 80% last month which is the lowest among all running lines. These two cities are consider poor city in China. If consider the spring festival effect, the 80% does not look good. But after the whole network built on 2012, the capacity utilization will definitely up. Because it will be connected to other big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan. The same thing applies to Wuhan-Guangzhou line, after the Beijing-Wuhan line start to run next year, it will be even better.

About the station location, I guess vina is talking about Guangzhou. The reason is the new Guanzhou rail station is still under construction. So the current Guangzhou north station is like a temp station. The new Guangzhou station will be delivered this year and it will be called Guangzhou south station and will be the biggest station in Asia. All stations will be connected by Metro. Well they are still under construction. Bottom line is all new high speed railway stations in big cities will be connected by Metro.
 

bhaagdkbose

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Another major lie... china depends heavily on its export industry... mass manufacturing is a good idea but not for a superpower, china's claims can or cannot be true... being a communist country its claims can be false.. also china is not the largest market for automobiles .... its european union... pls get ur facts right
 

asianobserve

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The title is spot on! India is already a democracy and as such there is no more need for it to transition. The only thing for it to do now is to move forward.
 

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