China’s impressive. But India may have more long-term potential.

[Armand2REP]

when CHina itself is the global biggest auto market and it is very hard for auto companies to finish domestic auto orders, all auto companies in CHina are not so interested to oversea sales.

ROFLs, sure... China doesn't want to increase exports. What is the next crock-o-merde you will share?

 

[tony4562]

You guys can say all you want. But the fact remains that 10 years ago none of my relatives in China had cars, 5 years ago only a few, but these days every member of the younger generation has one. Some of my cousins have 2 cars, one to themselves and one to their spouse. This is in my opinion a reflection of the big picture. Cars are really becoming an essential part of people's life in china, at least for the 500 million or so city dwellers.

Also you guys need to get rid of the idea that cars are dirt-cheap in china. No they are not, when comparing cars with the same model and same level of equipment, cars in China always cost more than they do in the US. But of course compared to what cars used to cost 10, 20 years ago (there was a 250% tax on cars), their prices have come down significantly.

 

[Armand2REP]

Also you guys need to get rid of the idea that cars are dirt-cheap in china. No they are not, when comparing cars with the same model and same level of equipment, cars in China always cost more than they do in the US. But of course compared to what cars used to cost 10, 20 years ago (there was a 250% tax on cars), their prices have come down significantly.

Seriously player, you need to quite smoking the hashish. The list price of Chinese autos INCLUDES the taxes. The list price in Western autos does not. Prices of the same model made in China sell for half the price they do in the West. Chery QQ is $3600 in China but $7200 everywhere else and that doesn't include taxes.

 

[Daredevil]

You guys can say all you want. But the fact remains that 10 years ago none of my relatives in China had cars, 5 years ago only a few, but these days every member of the younger generation has one. Some of my cousins have 2 cars, one to themselves and one to their spouse. This is in my opinion a reflection of the big picture. Cars are really becoming an essential part of people's life in china, at least for the 500 million or so city dwellers.

Also you guys need to get rid of the idea that cars are dirt-cheap in china. No they are not, when comparing cars with the same model and same level of equipment, cars in China always cost more than they do in the US. But of course compared to what cars used to cost 10, 20 years ago (there was a 250% tax on cars), their prices have come down significantly.

There has been growth in Car sales not just in China but almost all developing countries. The point that is being contended here is the abnormally higher growth rates in car sales which most chinese here are attributing to Chinese economy while me and Armand are pointing out that such abnormal spurt in car sales is because of massive stimulus given by CCP which is largest in terms of percentage of GDP in the whole world.

 

[amoy]

All these spur in car sales is due to stimulus. Increase in car sales is consequent to stimulus.

what's the economic development for? isn't it for well being of people?

if that's true that a huge stimulus is made for the auto industry isn't it at the advantage of consumers - people like u or me? in turn of course the auto industry benefits from bigger sales and boosts employment and workers' income. isn't it a benign cycle? certailnly the stimulus package is out of taxpayers' pocket naturally. but that's the way to go for the government to set the economy in motion in the time of global recession.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
by the way, I agree to the subject of this thread -
yes India holds immense potential, with her would-be world's no.1 population size (overtaking China soon).

However only that Caste thing makes me very uncomfortable, against our equalitarian belief and is perceived to be an obstacle in the way of India towards her ambitions

 

[Armand2REP]

The point is himalaya, the stimulus can't last for long. Chinese metoric rise in the automarket will be shortlived.

 

[tony4562]

It will not be short lived because its not like people are getting their cars for free (Armand, would you care to check China prices for Accord or Camry or Civic and Corolla, cars that are popular here around the Suzhou-Shanghai-Hangzhou region, and compare those with their US equivalents?). As long as Chinese economy stays sound and as long as oil price doesn't go through roof, China will continue to sell lots of cars.

Like fixed-line telefons in the 90's and mobile phones early in the 2000s, once the critical mass has reached, the snow ball will simply keep rolling.

 

[amoy]

The point is himalaya, the stimulus can't last for long. Chinese metoric rise in the automarket will be shortlived.

can't last long? does a stimulus need to last for ever and ever? when the economy turns for better the package of course is bound to phase out. isn't it what most governments are doing with their bail-out monetary policies?

I don't have to remind u the US government months ago had to suspend its stimulus for auto industry i.e. subsidy for consumers to turn in their old cars in exchange for new ones! here 'capitalists' and 'communists' are in convergence

Home and car buyers get tax breaks in stimulus package
Updated 3/10/2009 11:56 AM | Comments 192 | Recommend 45 E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions |

JOBLESS AND TAXES

Percentage of families receiving unemployment benefits that owed taxes on their benefits in 2005:

Income Affected by taxation

Less than $10,000 11%

$10,000-$15,000 40%

$15,000-$20,000 47%

$20,000-$25,000 54%

$25,000-$30,000 57%

$30,000-$40,000 70%

$40,000-$50,000 84%

$50,000-$100,000 95%

All 66%

Source: Congressional Research Service


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By Sandra Block, USA TODAY
These days, most workers would welcome even a small increase in their paychecks. Still, a $400 tax credit probably isn't going to cause a lot of cash-strapped families to do a happy dance around the kitchen table. Most workers will end up with an extra $8 a week.
But the $787 billion economic stimulus package, which President Obama is expected to sign Tuesday, contains numerous provisions that could save you much more than that, depending on your circumstances. Here's a closer look at who stands to gain from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act:


IN THE NEWS: How will the $787 billion stimulus package affect you?

•First-time home buyers. First-time home buyers are eligible for an $8,000 tax credit. And unlike the $7,500 credit enacted last year, this one doesn't have to be repaid, unless you sell your home within three years.

The credit is available to taxpayers who buy a primary residence between Jan. 1 and Dec. 1, 2009. The credit phases out for taxpayers whose AGI exceeds $75,000, or $150,000 for married couples.

•New car buyers. Purchasers of new cars and trucks will be allowed to deduct sales or excise taxes. This is an above-the-line deduction, so you don't have to itemize to claim it.
The deduction is limited to sales tax on purchases of up to $49,500. The deduction phases out for single taxpayers with adjusted gross income of more than $125,000, and married taxpayers whose AGI exceeds $250,000.

The amount you save will depend on your state sales tax rate and the price of your car or truck. If your state imposes a 4% sales tax and your car costs $40,000, the deduction will reduce your adjusted gross income by $1,600, says tax publisher CCH.

The deduction is limited to car and truck purchases made between the date the bill becomes law and Dec. 31, says Tom Ochsenschlager, vice president of taxation for the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants. Congress "is trying to get people to buy cars right away," he says.

The bill also expands a tax break for people who take public transit to work. The bill allows employees to set aside up to $230 a month in pretax dollars to cover the cost of a bus, train or van pool, up from $120. Employees were already allowed to set aside up to $230 a month for parking. If the employer subsidizes public transportation, employees can receive up to $230 a month without paying taxes on the benefit.

•Parents of college-bound students. The bill contains a more generous tax credit for higher education than the existing Hope college credit. Parents will be allowed to claim a tax credit of up to $2,500 a year to cover higher-education expenses. The income phaseouts are also higher than those for existing higher-education tax credits. Single filers with AGI of up to $80,000 can claim the full credit. Married couples can have AGI of up to $160,000 and claim the full amount.

In calculating expenses that count toward the credit, parents and independent students can also include the cost of textbooks and other course materials. That change could benefit students who attend community colleges or other schools with modest tuition rates, says Mark Luscombe, tax analyst for CCH. Including textbooks will increase the amount of the tax credit these students can claim, he says.

•Unemployed workers. If you're not drawing a paycheck, you're probably not worrying much about taxes. But that mindset can get you in trouble, because unemployment benefits are taxable. This stimulus package excludes the first $2,400 in unemployment benefits from taxes in 2009. Most jobless workers don't have taxes withheld from their unemployment checks, so this won't provide an immediate increase in their income. The change will, however, mean they won't have to scramble to come up with the money when they file their 2009 taxes.

The stimulus package could also make it easier for some unemployed Americans to continue their former employer's health insurance coverage.

The federal Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, or COBRA, lets laid-off employees continue their former employer's coverage for up to 18 months. In the past, though, they were required to pay 102% of the premiums.

The stimulus bill will subsidize 65% of COBRA premiums for up to nine months. The subsidy is limited to workers who were laid off between Sept. 1, 2008, and the end of this year.

Stop nagging about policies that your brain hardly has comprehension of............find a better subject about China!!

 

[nimo_cn]

The harsh fact here is just becaue you have the most potential to be No.1 doesn't mean you will be the No.1.

China and India are country with immense population, land and resource, we can say China and India should be the ones with the most potential.
Hence China and India should have been powerful countries already.

But we know the facts, we are not.

And same analogy can be applied here, India may have more potential than China if we consider certain aspects such as population, language, etc. But let's fact it, potential is just potential, unless you take advantage of the potential, India will be a potential country for ever.

And the same with China!

 

[Armand2REP]

Yes, China has just about worn out its growth model and will soon stagant for the next twenty years just as Japan has done. Indian growth model is much more sustainable and will see them surpass China in the next twenty years.

 

[tony4562]

Yes, China has just about worn out its growth model and will soon stagant for the next twenty years just as Japan has done. Indian growth model is much more sustainable and will see them surpass China in the next twenty years.

Japan stagnant maybe, but China won't touch their GDP per capital figure in my life time, and neither will India.

Mod Edit : Please do not mention what happens in other forums, try to keep discussion in between the topic within fellow members

India has too much population and too little resources, and the people generally tend to do 'the talking' more eargerly than do 'the doing' (a trait shared by virtaully every one from that subcontinent), in my opinion the prospect for India is not that good. And as far as catching up with either China or Japan in the next 2 decades, I would say we've heard this before (so many times) so let's see.

 

[Armand2REP]

I was talking about nominal GDP growth, not per capita. China is going to flatline long before they reach Japan's per capita wage. CCP tried playing their hand too early and are failing. In the next 18 months their failure will be made apparent to all.

 

[tony4562]

China whethered the biggest economic crisis and north korea like isolation in the early 90's (post tiananmen crisis), so now with everything vastly improved I don't think any future problems will be nearly as bad.

What if there is no crisis in China 18 month from now, are you going to eat crow and admit I was wrong?

 

[Armand2REP]

China whethered the biggest economic crisis and north korea like isolation in the early 90's (post tiananmen crisis), so now with everything vastly improved I don't think any future problems will be nearly as bad.

What if there is no crisis in China 18 month from now, are you going to eat crow and admit I was wrong?

China didn't weather anything. They spent nearly $2 trillion USD in banque lending and stimulus spending (45% of GDP) to get an 8.7% growth. China is burning through money faster than USA with a much smaller economy. With a FOREX that can't be touched, they will soon have 96% of GDP in debt as the NPLs of local governments are transfered to the balance sheet. When the housing bubble bursts, people's savings will be wiped out and the engine of growth (construction) will be destroyed.

 

[tony4562]

A lot of indians feel good when looking at India and China's demographic trends. Not so fast, my friend: with added population you have more mouths to feed. If you can not create enough jobs for them (something india has not demonstrated it can), you are only going to do worse, a lot worse. India has more persants than China, both as percentage as well as in absolute numbers, yet india's agricultural products are only a fraction of what China manages to produce. Also India's manufacturing sector repoertedly employs only 1/10th as many workers as in China. These facts suggest strongly that unemployment is a huge problem in India, both in the cities as well as on the country side. The indian friends here would immediately point out at the impressive official 6.8% unemployment rate, but for me this is proof that india's economic data are unreliable and india's unemployment problem is understated. It will only get worse. Also the supposed advantage India in terms of available labour might never come true because in india only half of the population, I mean men, work whereas in China women not only work but will continue to work after giving birth.

India will soon find itself in a situation burdened with 2 billion people yet little jobs to go around.

 

[tony4562]

With 1.2 billion still growing people squeezed into a relatively small land, many of them poor, malnutritioned , illiterate and not particularly bright (see avg IQ), little resouces (water, mineral), little coal, virtually no oil, little industries, menacing muslim jihadis knocking on the door step as well as from within, if I were an indian, I would have sleepless nights, but obviously not the ones here. I admire your guys optimism but I truely fail to see where it comes from.

 

[Armand2REP]

A lot of indians feel good when looking at India and China's demographic trends. Not so fast, my friend: with added population you have more months to feed. If you can not create enough jobs for them (something india has not demonstrated it can), you are only going to do worse, a lot worse. India has more persants than China, both as percentage as well as in absolute numbers, yet india's agricultural products are only a fraction of what China manages to produce. Also India's manufacturing sector repoertedly employs only 1/10th as many workers as in China. These facts suggest strongly that unemployment is a huge problem in India, both in the cities as well as on the country side. The indian friends here would immediately point out at the impressive official 6.8% unemployment rate, but for me this is proof that india's economic data are unreliable and india's unemployment problem is understated. It will only get worse. Also the supposed advantage India in terms of available labour might never come because in india only half of the population, I mean men, work whereas in China women not only work but will continue to work after giving birth.

India will soon find itself in a situation burdened with 2 billion people yet little jobs to go around.

India has less people than China and has a decreasing growth rate, by the time the two populations level out they will be about even. In both China and India, poverty will always be an issue. China has about maxed out what they can get out of their domestic economy and at present, it is extremly over inflated. India has far more potential for growth if they don't get themselves in the export trap of Chinois. It isn't likely to happen since they have a strong private sector that is allowed to flourish, unlike China who quashes anything that threatens CCP power. India's service sector is more vibrant than China which is a vital element for advanced economies. As India grows into this and keeps a healthy base of manufacture, they will progress to an advanced economy in due course.

 

[tony4562]

India has less people than China and has a decreasing growth rate, by the time the two populations level out they will be about even. In both China and India, poverty will always be an issue. China has about maxed out what they can get out of their domestic economy and at present, it is extremly over inflated. India has far more potential for growth if they don't get themselves in the export trap of Chinois. It isn't likely to happen since they have a strong private sector that is allowed to flourish, unlike China who quashes anything that threatens CCP power. India's service sector is more vibrant than China which is a vital element for advanced economies. As India grows into this and keeps a healthy base of manufacture, they will progress to an advanced economy in due course.

No, most experts project India to overtake China's population in 20 years, and then continue to grow and finally stabilize (will it happen with fertility rate still hovering around 3?) around 1.8 to 2 billion people. The land of india can not support this many people, no matter how you cut it.

China on the other hand, has hardly maxed out, we are just beginning. never before has China produced so many college graduates, never bofore has China had such first class infrastrucutre and never before has China had so many cutting-edge factories turning out great amount of goods wanted by people around the world. The truth is everyone not calling himself an indian nationalist, agrees that sky is limit for China.

Just because you have a few super tychoons (who together own like 20% of india) does not mean you have a better private sector, in fact China's private sector employs far more people, produces fa more goods and has created a GDP that is greater than India's total.

India today has only 1% of people employed in manufacturing, you are not going to become a manufacturing power house any time soon.

 

[Armand2REP]

No, most experts project India to overtake China's population in 20 years, and then continue to grow and finally stabilize (will it happen with fertility rate still hovering around 3?) around 1.8 to 2 billion people. The land of india can not support this many people, no matter how you cut it.

As India becomes more modernised the use of birth for farming labour decreases. We are already seeing it in their declining growth. It will never get to 2 billion as they would starve first.

China on the other hand, has hardly maxed out, we are just beginning. never before has China produced so many college graduates, never bofore has China had such first class infrastrucutre and never before has China had so many cutting-edge factories turning out great amount of goods wanted by people around the world. The truth is everyone not calling himself an indian nationalist, agrees that sky is limit for China.

Never before has China produced so many college flops. A Chinois degree outside the 4 flagships isn't worth the equivalent of a Western primary school certificate. Why do you think so many Chinese go abroad for education? The ones with Western degrees are the only ones giving any innovation to Chinese development. School in China is nothing but cheating and grade inflation, I know, I taught languages there. I can't begin to tell you how many threats from parents I got for giving low grades. The factories of China produce low quality goods no matter what it is. There is no culture of quality control in China and that isn't something you learn overnight. The poor asset and fiscal management of China is about to come crumbling around the CCP. Housing bubbles, asset bubbles, and NPLs are all growing... CCP can only hide it for so long.

Just because you have a few super tychoons (who together own like 20% of india) does not mean you have a better private sector, in fact China's private sector employs far more people, produces fa more goods and has created a GDP that is greater than India's total.

Sure, lets talk about income disparity. China has the largest in the world and it is only growing.

India today has only 1% of people employed in manufacturing, you are not going to become a manufacturing power house any time soon.

The goal isn't to become a manufacturing power house. The goal is to become an advanced economy where services make the most of the GDP.

 

[Rage]

India has too much population and too little resources, and the people generally tend to do 'the talking' more eargerly than do 'the doing' (a trait shared by virtaully every one from that subcontinent), in my opinion the prospect for India is not that good. And as far as catching up with either China or Japan in the next 2 decades, I would say we've heard this before (so many times) so let's see.

That is 'evident' to you only because you have lived in a repressed society for so long. I assure you we do far more 'doing' than you can imagine. Feel free to ever come to India for a first-hand tour of just how sedulous we are, of how the dubbah man achieves a six star efficiency rating with nothing more than a plank and his markers, of how the vegetable vendor starts his day at 0400 hours at the wholesale market, and ends it with a trip at 22:30 back to the 'burbs.


In our opinion, it is the chinese that do 'way too much talking'. A comparison of the number of chinese forums today, and the amount of time the average chinese spends on them talking about utter nonsense or defense or their 'rise', with the number of forums on India and the avg. participation on them, will demonstrate the point. Far too much time is spent by the average urban chinese today on video games or youtube or other 'web forums or chat sites; on the english ones at least, talking utter nonsense on weighty issues; although that is not yet clear whether it is because of a genuine lack of something discerning to contribute or a lack of articulation.