China's Communist Party sees India as part of U.S. "containment" strategy

thakur_ritesh

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Last year is a disaster for China's foreign policy. If there is a check and balance, the person responsible for it should be fired off his post.

However, it's inevitable US will try to contain China, sooner or later. As only super power in the world, the world should be lead by American way in their eyes. Any challenges to their world dominance would be considered as threat, and thus, should be contained and prevented, regardless what type of country such challenge come from. India will face same situation once you grow big enough and not follow American way of world rules.

Regarding China's foreign policy, government (or military maybe?) miscalculated the situation, got over confident and bluntly spread some "core interest" theory that unnecessarily strained our relationship with some neighbors. But objectively speaking, when a country as big as China getting even powerful, her neighbors are in a forever mode of nervousness unless China can convince them her rise is peaceful and non-harmful.

As for India, being considered as a chess piece of America is nothing to be proud of. India is a proud country and right now is in a perfect diplomatic situation like China enjoyed 30 years ago. It would be in India's best interest not join any alliance or at least not openly support such ideal. We all know how fragile such alliance is and how unreliable our super power friend it is. US policy toward China could be hostile for now but both countries will still pretend to be friendly because they badly need each other. Other countries don't have such luxury. It would be naive and tragedy for a country to openly against China, expect reward from US, and later on find themselves left alone. US always did such thing. Vietnam and even Japan recognize it, not to mention Korea, Indonesia and Philippine. Vietnamese leader has secretly visited China several times to assure Chinese leader their true intention. Japanese prime minister has expressed his dire need to improve mutual relationship and vowed he want to visit China as soon as possible.

Just like that article says, Unlike US has huge trade deficit with China, most Chinese neighbors are benefiting from China. You could lose a lot more before you gain any, after all, US is thousands miles away.
i whole heartedly agree with what you say. my sense is china over played it self way too much and way too early, if they had to do all that they did in the last 1-2 years time period the perfect timing for that would have been by the fag end of this decade, it seems china is a decade too early into this but then they might be uneasy with india growing the way it is and if india was to continue like this for say another decade, india could turn out to be quite formidable and so the rush.

also i suspect india doesnt want to align with the US and antagonize the prc, my sense is india would want to over hype china, which is perfectly understandable and if done would be a perfectly well thought out strategy, since if we are successful we will end up with a lot of concessions and benefits which otherwise could take a lot of time. now if this gets perceived as india being played around to US's benefit, i wouldnt mind since india would be in complete control, getting what it wants and still keeping complete independence no matter how the country gets perceived.
 

Ray

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I totally understand why India is not happy with China. If I were put into your shoes, I would have same feeling. I just hope as time goes on, our relationship will regain the normal level we had for many centuries.

I think India's current foreign policy is actually pretty smart and prudent. The world is pragmatic. Look how US treat long time ally Egypt president Mubarak, it's a humiliation! When dust settles, everything goes to national interest.
Mubarak was a dictator propped up by the US. So, was the various Pakistani Military Presidents.

India is a democracy and the US can only break ties and that will not be a humiliation in the manner Pakistan and Egypt has felt.

What is important in Foreign Policy is long term and short term objectives.

The short term objective is possibly to spook China that she must go easy with her 'expansionist' (as we see it) and aggressive hegemonic acts.

Long term message to China would be - keep to your borders, be less aggressive and we will be friends! It is not only for India, but all others too.
 

ejazr

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'China ready to go to war to safeguard national interests'

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china-ready-to-go-to-war-to-safeguard-national-interests/749262/0

Terming US attempts to woo India and other neighbours of China as "unbearable," an article in a Communist party magazine has said that Beijing must send a "clear signal" to these countries that it is ready to go to war to safeguard its national interests.

The article published in the Qiushi Journal, the official publication of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) said China must adhere to a basic strategic principle of not initiating war but being ready to counter-attack.

"We must send a clear signal to our neighbouring countries that we don't fear war, and we are prepared at any time to go to war to safeguard our national interests," the article said, suggesting an aggressive strategy to counter emerging US alliances in the region.

"Throughout the history of the new China (since 1949), peace in China has never been gained by giving in, only through war. Safeguarding national interests is never achieved by mere negotiations, but by war," it said.

The piece said countries like Japan, India, Vietnam,

Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Korea are trying to join the anti-China group because they either had a war or a conflict of interest with China.

"What is especially unbearable is how the US blatantly encourages China's neighbouring countries to go against China. We cannot completely blame the US, as flies do not stare at seamless eggs.

"They are attempting to gain benefits by using US," it said.

It suggested that China should use its economic clout and trade as a weapon to rein in neighbours.

"China's neighbouring countries need China's international trade more than China needs them, with the vast majority of China's trade deficit caused by these countries," it said.

"Therefore, they, but not China, will suffer greater damage by antagonising China. China should make good use of these economic advantages and strategic power. This is also the most effective means to avoid a war," it said.

The article said the US has adopted a series of strategies to contain China like through an exchange rate war, through a public opinion war, besides launching military exercises and simulated warfare, and the development of an anti-China alliance.

China on its part, it said, can consider the idea of launching economic warfare through strategies to contain the US dollar and making effective use of forums like the IMF and initiating a space war by developing strong space weapons.

It also suggested as a counter-strategy the idea of pursuing a strong policy against neighbours joining the US alliance, even attacking a nearby enemy and forming anti-US alliances in Latin America and Africa.

It also said the China should also launch a public opinion war by making an effective use of the free media in the US and other democracies.

Though suggesting a hard-line policy towards neighbours, the article, however, proposes to rope in countries with good foreign reserves like India to neutralise the influence of US dollar.

"Of course, to fight the US, we have to come up with key weapons. What is the most powerful weapon China has today? It is our economic power, especially our foreign exchange reserves (USD 2.8 trillion). The key is to use it well. If we use it well, it is a weapon; otherwise it may become a burden," it said.

China, it said, should ensure that that fewer countries should keep their forex reserves in US dollars.

"China, Japan, the UK, India, and Saudi Arabia are all countries with high foreign exchange reserves," it said analysing each country's ability to align with China against the US.

"Japan is constrained by the Japan-US Security Treaty and will not break away from the US... Great Britain has always followed the US, so the probability that it will cooperate with China is also pretty low".

"India has stayed closely allied with the US in recent years, and Obama promised to support India for a permanent membership in the UNSC. Thus, the probability for India to cooperate with China is also not great.

"India's purchasing power of foreign exchange reserves is very limited anyway, so it cannot influence the overall situation much," it said.

So in view of this China should "pick up courage" and go for aggressive buying of other currencies, including the Indian Rupee hence taking the lead in affecting the market for US dollars.

This approach, it said, is market-driven and it will not be able to easily blame China.

"Of course, the most important condition is still that China must have enough courage to challenge the US currency. China can act in one of two ways. One is to sell US dollar reserves, and the second is not to buy US dollars for a certain period of time," which will weaken the currency and cause deep economic crisis for Washington.

Given the fact that China is the biggest buyer of US debt, its actions will have a demonstrable effect on the market.

"If China stops buying, other countries will pay close attention and are very likely to follow. Once the printed excess dollars cannot be sold, the depreciation of the dollar will accelerate and the impact on Americans wealth will be enormous.

"The US will not be able to withstand this pressure and will curtail the printing of US currency," it said.
 

Tshering22

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Can't agree more on this. Ray, good analysis
I always wondered how Beijing could conduct such a mistake. Despite having a very similar culture for thousands of years and a strong relation between India and China for the same amount of time, CCP saw Pakistan as a hedge rather than India as an ally. Now As Pakistan further descends into chaos, you will see how difficult it becomes for CCP to sustain this ally.

There is a lot of difference between controlling North Korea by CCP and influencing Pakistan. Let me elaborate here:

North Korea:

- homogenous country
- under one absolute rule; you control Kim you control North Korea
- single center for power
- uniform foreign policy with no opposition or differing view
- totally in your sphere, isolated from the world completely
- an inherently disciplined sense of culture (though modified for Communist gains, but still).

Pakistan

- ethnically diverse country
- disharmony between different ethnic groups; Balochis for example don't like your involvement on behalf of "Pakistani nation"
- multiple centers of power; Army/ISI is one power, civilian government is another, separatist tribe groups are some
- failing state
- confused identity
- confused alliance; though Pakistani public is anti-American, their leaders are still in US pockets due to aid and stuff.

So you see where the problems are starting for CCP? While keeping us bogged down might seem as a good idea in short term, CCP doesn't know how difficult a situation it is creating for everybody in South and Central Asia. China has a good reputation among Pakistani common people due to the good gestures but let's face it; the common people of Pakistan are not in control.

That country is an amalgamation of terrorism, failed economy, nukes, multiple tribal dissidents, WOT elements and extremely unstable and emotional people who think more from heart than from head even in politics. This is reflected in their political stand as well.

CCP must realize this blunder while it still has the time, otherwise it will only become a nightmare for your country as well apart from us.
 

mattster

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Very interesting comments about China here - China is still only a half-ass superpower, but it is already slowly acting up.

It has been acting up against India for almost 50 years, but there are still many Indians here who think that China will change its spots. The reason the Chinese have acted up against India so much is because they have always viewed India as a third-rate poorly run country.

They probably have more respect for the leaders of small Vietnam than they do of India after the ass-kicking that they got from them in their border conflicts with the Vietnamese. The Chinese are very pragmatic people. They only screw with countries that they can get away with.

Mark my words - As China grows in power, you will see a much more aggressive dragon. Then people in Asia will wake up to what it is like living next door to a nasty superpower. Hopefully, India will be able to hold its own by then.
 
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amoy

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people in Asia will wake up to what it is like living next door to a nasty superpower. Hopefully, India will be able to hold its own by then.
When some refer to Asia it sounds as if Asia were a concrete block which got worked up against Dragon as a whole. Do scrutinize Asia interactionss respectively - S. Asia, ASEAN, N. Asia, among whom Dragon has allies, friends, or neutrals, or rivals. One can be all such roles for China rolled into one subject to specific issues. For example Viet Nam is a rival for territorial disputes. But meanwhile it's deeply engaged with China economically.

Besides I dont agree it was China's 'disaster' in foreign policy. Instead there're quite some positive changes. Getting assertive is a way to make your 'bottomlines' known to other 'stakeholders' or counterparts rather than staying ambiguous and leaving others to sound out Dragon's true intention.
 
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Ray

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Very interesting comments about China here - China is still only a half-ass superpower, but it is already slowly acting up.

It has been acting up against India for almost 50 years, but there are still many Indians here who think that China will change its spots. The reason the Chinese have acted up against India so much is because they have always viewed India as a third-rate poorly run country.

They probably have more respect for the leaders of small Vietnam than they do of India after the ass-kicking that they got from them in their border conflicts with the Vietnamese. The Chinese are very pragmatic people. They only screw with countries that they can get away with.

Mark my words - As China grows in power, you will see a much more aggressive dragon. Then people in Asia will wake up to what it is like living next door to a nasty superpower. Hopefully, India will be able to hold its own by then.
When some refer to Asia it sounds as if Asia were a concrete block which got worked up against Dragon as a whole. Do scrutinize Asia interactionss respectively - S. Asia, ASEAN, N. Asia, among whom Dragon has allies, friends, or neutrals, or rivals. One can be all such roles for China rolled into one subject to specific issues. For example Viet Nam is a rival for territorial disputes. But meanwhile it's deeply engaged with China economically.

Besides I dont agree it was China's 'disaster' in foreign policy. Instead there're quite some positive changes. Getting assertive is a way to make your 'bottomlines' known to other 'stakeholders' or counterparts rather than staying ambiguous and leaving others to sound out Dragon's true intention.

If one observes the history of China, while expansionism has been through wars, but mostly they have persuaded in a most unique way to convert people to their way of thinking, culture and life and even xenophobia!

China should not be looked at as another country and those parameters applied. China is more complex than being a political and territorial entity. What must be watched is their attempt to extend their influence without waging war or creating conflicts. Their pious platitudes are very loaded and misleading and very, very deceptive.

China is no superpower as yet. Nor it is the undisputed star in the Asian region. China's position is accepted in Asia because of her phenomenon rise in the economic realm. Its military hardware quest and indigenous manufacturing is being watched with concern by all. It, however, is still on the way to becoming a unchallengeable military power in Asia, let alone in the world. Therefore, for China to up the ante in assertiveness, is too premature and has backfired.

Obama's trip to Asia is showing results in new alignments, even if not as a formal alliance.
 

badguy2000

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I wish that was the case but looks like their growth continues. economy is still in very good shape that gives them confidence for being arrogant.
Chinese economy can keep its high growth until 2020 at least....at that time ,China's urbanization will be finished and its per capital GDP would be about 15K USD,if GDP is still measured by US dollar.
 

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I'm not happy with current India-China relationship.
I think most our Indian brothers are very happy with the current India-China relationship except the figures of the trade between two countries.:D

I guess most of India's resentments come from China's support to Pakistan.
I guess you have forgotten that Pakistan even didn't have an embassy in Beijing when India adopted the Forward Policy in 1962.

Back to topic, India should be carful to play this "fire" game US created. Nevertheless, I do think you can gain a lot by stay neutral.
I never think India would be in Alliance with America regardless whether China-Inida relationship is good or not.

I think this time it is American politicians who are so arrogant that they have totally underestimated Indian politicians' wisdom and ambition just as they did when they thought they could use China against Soviet in the Cold War, and they will pay for it some day just as they are paying for the miscalculation they made in the past.

By the way, I don't think China realy did something but gestures to help America against Societ in the Cold War. It was Brezhnev's stupidity which did that by falling into American scheme. And I don't think "China's Communist Party sees India as part of U.S. "containment" strategy" is the truth because I believe Chinese leaders are not as thick as Brezhnev was.

I think the author of the article just mixed up badguy2000 with the Chairman of the Communist Party of China.:dance:
 
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SHASH2K2

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I think most our Indian brothers are very happy with the current India-China relationship except the figures of the trade between two countries.:D
We are not happy with anything . not Even trade or attitude of China.

I guess you have forgotten that Pakistan even didn't have an embassy in Beijing when India adopted the Forward Policy in 1962.
You are going too far in opposite direction. we are discussing present scenario.
 
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ReneDad

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We are not happy with anything . not Even trade or attitude of China.
I mean most India political leaders are happy with the situation that the relationship with China isn't good, so they can play American for fool to get what India wants from America.
 

SHASH2K2

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I mean most India political leaders are happy with the situation that the relationship with China isn't good, so they can play American for fool to get what India wants from America.
Agree that though its not good but its a blessing in disguise if we use this opportunity properly .
 

Ray

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I think most our Indian brothers are very happy with the current India-China relationship except the figures of the trade between two countries.:D
Indian brothers are not really happy. Where did you get that impression from?



I guess you have forgotten that Pakistan even didn't have an embassy in Beijing when India adopted the Forward Policy in 1962.
To be frank we have not even forgotten that there was no Pakistan before August 1947!



I never think India would be in Alliance with America regardless whether China-Inida relationship is good or not.
One can't be too sure.

The Japanese Army Chief visit is still on and I believe the German Army Chief has also come.

Now what are they doing here?

Reminiscing events of WWII? :)

I think this time it is American politicians who are so arrogant that they have totally underestimated Indian politicians' wisdom and ambition just as they did when they thought they could use China against Soviet in the Cold War, and they will pay for it some day just as they are paying for the miscalculation they made in the past.
I think if the Chinese themselves tone down their false arrogance promoted by their self deluding myth that they are the Middle Kingdom and they shall inherit the Earth, they will not have to pay for the miscalculation they are doing right now. They are playing into the American hand wherein slowly they are being inject with the capitalist greed that is creating a Frankenstein and soon it may devour China. Inequalities between people cause revolutions. Mao came into power because of the same inequalities that were rife in China.

By the way, I don't think China realy did something but gestures to help America against Societ in the Cold War. It was Brezhnev's stupidity which did that by falling into American scheme. And I don't think "China's Communist Party sees India as part of U.S. "containment" strategy" is the truth because I believe Chinese leaders are not as thick as Brezhnev was.
Brezhnev was a twat. He was seeking personal glory as a great philosopher and a Pollyanna.

If Chinese leaders don't realise the gameplan of the US in Asia, then will continue to make the same mistake of antagonising and spooking the neighbours as they did with their spat over the islands with Japan!

I think the author of the article just mixed up badguy2000 with the Chairman of the Communist Party of China.:dance:
I don't think the Chairman of the CCP has time to surf the internet during tea time as Badguy can as the Chairman of the Bank!
 

ReneDad

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At first, I think it is a false assumption that US and China rivals each other like US and USSR did in the Cold War. Not like soviet threat, the so-called "China threat against neighbours " is just some territorial dispute which exists between many countries in the world. Such a kind of "threat" is very different from the "Soviet threat" felt by US and other countries. Another American concern about China is the trade imbalance or the competion with China in the economic field, but it is just a reflection of the reality that America and China depend on each other more than other countries with US.

Secondly, allying with a superpower isn't a free lunch for India. There is no way to a nation making allience with US without giving up some of her independence and freedom. South Korea for one, allied with US may make their military and economy overpowering their North Korean countrymen, but their AF commander even didn't have the power to use the F-15s they bought from US without an US approval when their ground forces were bombarded by NK's artillery.

India is a great power in the world. I don't think India would give up some of her independence and dignity just for trading some advantage in the territorial dispute over China---if there would be any advantage. Don't forget US didn't really help South Korean in the recent skirmish between NK and SK though SK is a true ally of US.

The terrain between India and China also makes any "US-India alliance against China" impossible. WWII would not take place if there were mountains with average height of over 4,000 meters between Germany and France, Germany and Russia, Japan and China, Japan and US....:nod:
 
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amoy

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WWII would not take place if there were mountains with average height of over 4,000 meters between Germany and France, Germany and Russia, Japan and China, Japan and US....
so here comes o-himalaya (-_-). The US is smart - by playing offshore equilibrium tacts - with its Asian 'proxies' - to pin down China so that the US may have a better trade-off with China. Obviously the leadership of China has realized this and starts some modification. So recently Beijing is busy neutralizing Vietnam with a mellowed tone like "traditional friendship'.

IMO tension from time to time is not a bad thing always for China. When China and Japan were at odds over Diaoyudao Russia took Japan by surprise by reaffirming her presence in S. Kuril engaging Japan on another front. the US and SK's threats only have made Sino-NK alliance firmer than ever. By this token the 'unhappier' China and India get, the closer Pakistan, and Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, will get to China as they see China as a positive balancing power in S. Asia.
 

pmaitra

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I guess you have forgotten that Pakistan even didn't have an embassy in Beijing when India adopted the Forward Policy in 1962.
I have a response for that. Read below:

Trans-Himalayan adventure

In all this time a large part of the Dogra army had been engaged in trans-Himalayan conquests. General Zorawar Singh, governor of Kishtwar, had conquered the Suru valley and Kargil (1835), the rest of Ladakh (1836-40), and Baltistan (1840). These conquests had alarmed Mian Singh, the Sikh governor of Kashmir, who complained to Prince Nao Nihal Singh that "Zorawar Singh, agent of Raja Gulab Singh was obtaining complete possession of Baltistan" (Punjab Akhbars, 20th July 1840). The Dogra campaign threatened the Sikh position in Kashmir and Gilgit and so Zorawar Singh turned his attention east to the conquest of Tibet.

In May 1841, the 5000 strong Dogra army supplemented by contingents of Kishtwaris, Ladakhis, and Baltis (raising the strength of the army to 7000) advanced eastwards in three divisions. Overcoming all the Tibetan and Chinese opposition they set up base at Taklakot near the holy Mansarovar Lake in September 1841, after traversing a distance of 450 miles from the Indian frontier. With the onset of severe winter the Dogras began falling one-by-one to the extreme cold and the lack of provisions, many burning the stocks of their muskets in futile attempts to warm themselves, and were overcome by a Sino-Tibetan force on 12 December 1841. Survivors of this campaign crossed over the Himalayas south to the British territories. Gulab Singh who was then in Peshawar leading the Anglo-Sikh campaign in Afghanistan was informed of this disaster by Henry Lawrence.

The Tibetans and their Chinese allies then invaded Ladakh but were defeated by the Dogras at the Battle of Chushul. The boundary between Ladakh and Tibet was finally settled by the Treaty of Chushul. This treaty was later violated by the communist rulers of China in the 1950s.
 

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