scatterStorm
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Ok I went a little overboard with the parity one, you are right, my bad, I saw the model again, I forgot the time-horizon, yes not happening very soon, but I am certain though, that with the speed and momentum the $ against Yuan is going, we might see the next big dip at the end of 2019 or during first financial quarter of 2020.Are you smoking crack ? Yuan parity with the US Dollar, 1 for 1 ?
Do you know what that means - right now 1 USD = 6.25 Yuan, so that means the Yuan appreciates by 600% or the US Dollar depreciates to 1/6 its value. That's crazy........that means an iPhone costing $800 bucks now will cost $4800 by 2019.
Even if you are talking about parity in other terms - sure China will try to buy oil with their currency.
But that does not mean that anyone is going to keep huge forex reserves in Yuan, because if the Chinese Finance Czar wakes up one day and decides to devalue the Yuan to make exports cheaper - then anyone holding Chinese Yuan is screwed.