China in Recession

[Armand2REP]

Considering China halves their inflation figures, it is easy to believe.

 

[Zebra]

25 May, 2012, 10.28AM IST, New York Times

China, which barreled ahead in recession, finally slows .

China, which barreled ahead in recession, finally slows - The Economic Times

 

[LTE-TDD]

Goldman Sachs, BofA-ML cut India GDP forecast:

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch cut their growth forecasts for





India, following up on a Morgan Stanley downgrade earlier this week that had sparked much concern in domestic markets.

The downgrades come in a tough month for Indian markets, after global risk aversion surged, exposing the country's fiscal and economic vulnerabilities.

Goldman Sachs said it was cutting its gross domestic product forecast to 6.6 percent from 7.2 percent for the fiscal year ending in March 2013, citing a weaker investment outlook on the back of domestic policy uncertainties.

The bank also revised higher its wholesale price inflation forecast for the same period to 6.5 percent from 5 percent, citing higher food prices and a potential increase in fuel prices.

As a result, Goldman said it now expects only 50 basis points in additional cuts of the repo rate for calendar year 2012, from its previous forecast of 75 basis points.

Merrill Lynch also downgraded its views, to 6.5 percent from 6.8 percent previously for fiscal 2012-13, though it cited the fallout from the euro zone crisis as its main rationale.

Still, the bank sounded more optimistic on the domestic economy, saying manufacturing growth appeared to be stronger than indicated by the industrial output data, while noting that several lead indicators had turned "neutral" from "negative."

"We continue to believe that the worst is over, but there is still pain left," Merrill said.

The bank argued that India could ensure a recovery if the central bank steps up its bond purchases via open market operations, raises fuel prices, and issue an offshore bond targeted at non resident Indians.

The pair of downgrades were still not as deep as Morgan Stanley's earlier this week, which cut its fiscal 2012-13 growth forecast to 6.3 percent, citing as a key reason the government's expansionary policy of supporting consumption while investment slows as a key reason.

 

[cir]

China is growing 8% plus。Yet this great mind of India says it is in recession.

 

[cir]

Some people can't tell the difference between decline in GDP and decline in the growth of GDP。。。

 

[cir]

China is growing 8% plus，yet this great mind of India says it is in recession。

If China was in recession， then India must be in depression。

 

[asianobserve]

Is China In A Recession?
Charles Biderman, Contributor
Forbes
May 23, 2012


The next big financial crisis we are likely to face will not come from Europe, which everyone already knows is in recession, but rather from China.

China is in big trouble but many investors don't think that's possible. Most believe that China, even with a slower growth rate, will be the engine that pulls the globe out of economic distress.

What we have discovered recently is not only is the quality of China's economic numbers even worse than those of the U.S., but real-time numbers indicate to us that China is probably already in a recession.

Our buddy Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, pointed me towards a May 14 Financial Times item that quoted Li Keqiang, China's premier in waiting, as saying back in 2007 that China's official GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable.

The FT added that Mr Li focuses on three sets of data: electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank loans. Guess what? Electricity consumption now is barely growing after years of double digit gains. Rail cargo volumes are also now barely ahead, and new bank loans are actually dropping.

Then there is what looks to be a collapsing Chinese real estate market. Real estate in China is the fiefdom of local governments according to TrimTabs head of quantitative research and Shanghai native Minyi Chen.

To understand the real estate market, it is important to realize that local governments have been giving land plus financing to developers who then build and sell homes to pay off the local government. But that game could be over as sales and prices are slowing.

Patrick Chovanecat, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, in his April report said Chinese residential real estate sales were down 17% in the first quarter and other real-time indicators indicate demand and now prices for Chinese home are actually dropping. Professor Chovanecat also says he does not believe official economic numbers and says that the real China economy is now shrinking.

Wow! What will happen to the stock and commodity markets when CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal all headline the Chinese reversal? Cannot be good.

On the other hand, I assume that the Chinese central bankers graduated from the same money printing 101 course attended by the Fed and the ECB. Therefore, I expect China to announce various stimulus packages soon that could boost emerging world stock prices and even the U.S. market.

Is China In A Recession? - Forbes

 

[G90]

Hopeless fools are hopeless

 

[mylegend]

Despite your believe, investment account for moremthan manufacturing in Chinese economy, so you should look at more data for amalysis. HSPC's pmi also are bias toward small and medium export oriented manufacturing firm. You need to do ammore comprehensive study to state Chinese economy to state it in recession(it is not). You need more than a single paragraph to analyze an economy. I have not seen any econmic model here. Even the reply include no data.

 

[Armand2REP]

Charting the fall of China's Realestate Market

Notice the decline in foreign investment and land sales... completely dried up

 

[roma]

hope we can give the member the benefit of the doubt - he probably misread somehow ? btw they ae helpng us with rafael .

 

[Armand2REP]

This guy's IQ is great, he define 8% GDP as recession!

China May Be Experiencing `Contraction' - Businessweek

 

[LETHALFORCE]

China May Be Experiencing `Contraction' - Businessweek

with a trade war with USA starting expect this to a be depression in 6 months.
Bye Bye China and your fake hyped up numbers.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Is China faking its economic growth? Chanos thinks so - Feb. 16, 2012

Is China faking its economic growth?

 

[Armand2REP]

with a trade war with USA starting expect this to a be depression in 6 months.
Bye Bye China and your fake hyped up numbers.

I guess fake it until you make it doesn't work when you never change the growth model.

 

[ice berg]

with a trade war with USA starting expect this to a be depression in 6 months.
Bye Bye China and your fake hyped up numbers.

Trade war in the middle of a reccesion? Between the biggest and the second largest economy in the world?

Sometimes it is hard to judge whether you are serious or just trolling. No, wait......

 

[p2prada]

This guy's IQ is great, he define 8% GDP as recession!

China's GDP growth is dependent on govt spending. No point if only spending is high and yearly returns falters. The numbers always look good in that respect. But that is not the complete truth.

well, the economy here doesn't look good indeed....
businessmen complained to me often...

Economy is bad everywhere. Some parts of the world, it is worse than others.

Until now, CHinese government still brakes the conomy.
if Chinese government change its idea and change its brake policy,the situation would change.

What policy changes are the Chinese govt implementing? How are they braking the economy?

 

[nrj]

with a trade war with USA starting expect this to a be depression in 6 months.
Bye Bye China and your fake hyped up numbers.

A trade war is the only thing US is missing compared to 1929.

But now there will be elections!

 

[badguy2000]

China's GDP growth is dependent on govt spending. No point if only spending is high and yearly returns falters. The numbers always look good in that respect. But that is not the complete truth.



Economy is bad everywhere. Some parts of the world, it is worse than others.



What policy changes are the Chinese govt implementing? How are they braking the economy?

to supressing the rapid rise of house_price, CHinese government has been braking economy since 2010 harshly..
Chinese government has enough leverages to stimulate economy,which is quite different from EU,japan and USA>,such as fall of bank interest rate,reserve fund..increase of bank loan quotas...etc.

of course, the easiest way is to decrease house purchase restriction...

 

[no smoking]

China's GDP growth is dependent on govt spending. No point if only spending is high and yearly returns falters. The numbers always look good in that respect. But that is not the complete truth.

Considering the pile cash hold by chinese gov, they just can still keep their economy growing for another couple of years.
What if the major markets are still in recession after that, then you no longer need to worry anything but world war 3.

Economy is bad everywhere. Some parts of the world, it is worse than others.

Exactly. So far, most of world (including india, France) are worse than China. That doesn't mean china should worry nothing.
There is a saying: When you groups of people are chased by wolves, you don't need to run faster than wolves, you only need to beat others.

What policy changes are the Chinese govt implementing? How are they braking the economy?

Since 2010, the central bank of china has been increasing its interest rate.
Since 2010, the chinese gov has put restriction on bank loans.
Since 2010, the central gov has cancelled lots of construction projects initiated by local gov.