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China's economy is overvalued or undervalued?
Today the world's first superpower, President Barack Obama in the first year in office in China for the time called "luxury" four-day trip to China today once again highlights the emerging superpower's economic status. Despite the negative of the Western media continue to China, has worked tirelessly belittle liberals at home and abroad of China's economic achievement, but as a President of whom will naturally not about Barack Obama and influence, after all, the international reality is that the stresses strength . Strength, of course, do not blow out, but more is not banished forever. China since 1978, three decades of economic take-off is known as the greatest in human history, geo-political events. From 2008 to 2009, the Western deep economic crisis, while China is still thriving, in the counter-balance between the Chinese world, the world's first crown in the removal of the speed has accelerated noticeably. From the previous estimate in 2050 was reduced to 2030 or even 10 years after 2020. Is now the West selected out of the world's most powerful people, Obama first, Hu Jintao, second, Putin third, also in the proof of China's rise and new strengths.
However, in the face of China's strong rise and the bright economic data, the global challenge is also set off a wave. It is somewhat funny that the question is now divided into two camps. One group that China's economic figures too high water, be overestimated. Those who think that China is seriously underestimated.
There are over-represented based on 2. First, China has always been out of official figures out of official figures. From top to bottom are suspected of fraud. Second, China's economy is the lack of data correlation. Example, significant economic growth, but energy consumption has failed to simultaneously increased.
Underestimate the reasons were many more. First, the scale of China which only five million yuan or more businesses, fall below these standards are often ignored. However, in practice the following operating entity of the massive five million there. Second, China's economic non-standardized, there are a large number of underground economy. This part is also often difficult to be reflected in statistics. Third, despite the state-owned enterprises exaggerated false content, but the private sector are often understated or concealed. Is a foreign-funded enterprises as well. Fourth, because of the sex industry, gambling is illegal in China, and therefore can not be the same as the West of statistical analysis. But in fact, the sex industry driving the economy has reached tens of millions of people, involving industry more. Such as hotels, restaurants, cosmetics industries. Taking these factors, China's economic aggregate has already surpassed Japan (2007 Japanese GDP of 4.3 trillion U.S. dollars, in 2008 China was 4.4 trillion U.S. dollars, China in 2008 is still up 9%, Japan is negative growth. Ironclad in China in 2009 increased by more than 8%, Japan is still a negative growth).
It should be said of China's social and economic development and transformation of the complexity, massive and super-large-scale statistical results lead to question the reasons. In fact, how China's economic strength, there are still some controversial figures, we can not produce an indirect reflected. China's foreign exchange reserves ranking first in the world and even the G7 countries combined. Of course, some people say the dollar, China's foreign exchange reserves will shrink. But for countries like China in terms of very large scale, we are not a stall hawkers, today rose on the throw to go down on the smoke came in tomorrow, for China to ensure China's economic security is the first. There is such a huge amount of reserves, we can bring the world's speculators backed off and, once the domestic economy unexpected situation can be resolved in time. China's banking sector in 2003 is still at the edge of collapse, the results of the Chinese government took out a 30 billion U.S. dollars from foreign exchange reserves to inject capital to carry out reforms, the results to the present, China's banking sector is the world's most healthy position in the global top ten banks in order to occupy the first three great advantages. Profitability is now far behind the West Bank, and even the bankruptcy of Bank of America has reached an unprecedented scale, this year has been more than 100 banks closed their doors.
Second, China to overtake Germany this year is the world's largest trading nation. China's Tenth Five-Year Planning, who is expected to reach one trillion U.S. dollars in 2010, resulting in 2007 bilateral trade volume topped two trillion U.S. dollars. Currently ranked the world's top ten ports in China accounts for six seats, and China's Shanghai has occupied the throne first. With regard to China's exports, has been a misconception that the majority of low to medium product. Indeed, according to France's "financial" (CAPITAL) data provided by Chinese high-tech exports beat the United States, Germany and Japan, the highest in the world. 3.5 times the total of France.
Third, the output of major industrial and agricultural products in China for many years the highest in the world. China's grain production to 413 million tons in the world aotou beat the United States exclusively, or even almost finished third in the world, and the other most populous countries, India twice, ranked fifth in France six times. Meat production (74 million tons) is ranked second in the United States twice, twelve times more than France. More than 50 million tons of fruits and vegetables, is ranked second in India four times, the United States seven times. Steel production exceeded 500 million tons, exceeding the world's top ten steel producing countries combined, is five times the U.S. and Japan, is an outright Big Mac (in 1980 China, Japan and the United States is only one-third). Economic sector has always been there, "Oil is the blood of industrialization, the steel is the backbone of industrialization!" One said, It is on this basis, China's auto sales in 2009 surpassed the United States has also become the world's first. In fact, China has 210 industrial products ranked first in the world, including television, mobile phones, computers, beer, bicycles, chemical products, machinery and so on.
Fourth, another important indicator of economic development from the energy point of view, China's total energy consumption of 1.863 billion tons of oil equivalent, second only to the United States, 2.361 billion tons in second place. Is the world's second largest oil consumer, the world's fifth largest oil producer, a daily consumption of 7.8 million barrels. Coal production accounts for almost half of the world, water and electricity more than a year added the size of Britain.
In addition, China to attract foreign capital has a long-term three highest in the world. After the United States.
China is not only a huge economies of scale, but also fairly healthy. The proportion of total debt to GDP, Japan's second to 195.5%, Italy, 7th 104% Canada 19 68.5% 64% France 22, Germany 24 63% United States 26 61%, India 31 58 % 50 43% United Kingdom and China is the 102 only 18%! !
Now in China, not only economic indicators have been far ahead of China, that is, social indicators have also been living in the world precedent. China's R & D 'input ranked third in the world (behind the United States and Japan), invented the world's fifth patent application, but the growth rate continuously for more than 20 percent a decade, an increase tied for first with South Korea, the first Internet users, the country's largest mobile phone use, the fourth largest tourist country (the National Palace Museum visitors ranked second), China's insurance assets, the world's first (Ping An Insurance seventh). There is an indicator, though not the value of pride, but it could also be reflected in China's economic strength. Namely, carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 has surpassed the United States ranked first in the world (although per capita the United States is China's more than five times).
There are a number of more interesting, the most serious water pollution in the top ten countries are: China, United States, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Brazil, Indonesia, France, Ukraine. There are 20 developed countries, the former Italy (11), Spain (12), the United Kingdom (13), South Korea (15), sparsely populated of Canada (16).
Clearly, the debate on China's economic data should be drawn to an end, perhaps the world's most economists believe that China can be a maximum of twenty years at least ten years than the United States is the most just and right answer to this question.
Attachment: This data quoted from the French "Capital" magazine.
