China Economy: News & Discussion

SexyChineseLady

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The trade Yuan had already protected Turkey from the implosion of their local currency through loss of US dollar assets between 2019-2021. It will make others look for this protection.


NEW YORK – The US banking system is broken. That doesn’t portend more high-profile failures like Credit Suisse. The central banks will keep moribund institutions on life support.

But the era of dollar-based reserves and floating exchange rates that began on August 15, 1971, when the US severed the link between the dollar and gold, is coming to an end. The pain will be transferred from the banks to the real economy, which will starve for credit.

And the geopolitical consequences will be enormous. The seize-up of dollar credit will accelerate the shift to a multipolar reserve system, with advantage to China’s RMB as a competitor to the dollar.
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The dollar reserve system will go out not with a bang, but a whimper. The central banks will step in to prevent any dramatic failures. But bank balance sheets will shrink, credit to the real economy will diminish and international lending in particular will evaporate.

At the margin, local currency financing will replace dollar credit. We have already seen this happen in Turkey, whose currency imploded during 2019-2021 as the country lost access to dollar and euro financing.
To an important extent, Chinese trade financing replaced the dollar, and supported Turkey’s remarkable economic turnaround of the past year. Southeast Asia will rely more on its own currencies and the RMB.
 

SexyChineseLady

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This was 10 years ago:
7540802F-423A-4031-B4AD-F96E5DDB7924.jpeg


In those 10 years, China's exports grew from $2.2T to over $3.5T. A growth of over 62% when Chinese labor grew expensive ;)

While exports as a percentage of GDP has gone down from 25% to under 20%.
E9251BCC-AA0B-4297-BCC1-FE0B7BE99D0B.jpeg


Rising wages means a much bigger internal economy but exports are still growing to provide an extra lever of growth.
 

srevster

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rockdog

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Why Chinese Apps Are the Favorites of Young Americans

It isn’t just the algorithms, but lessons from a competitive culture


Washington's concerns about TikTok have raised new concerns about how Chinese apps are intertwined with the lives of young Americans and what makes them so popular. In March, four of the five most popular apps in the United States were "Made in China.". Algorithms are often considered their secret weapon, but one aspect that has been overlooked is that fierce competition for domestic users gives Chinese companies an advantage over Western rivals.

Like China's rise decades ago as a dominant manufacturing power, Chinese technology companies are constantly refining product functionality using an affordable pool of talent. There is even a special term in China's technology industry to describe this never-ending trend of improvement: embroidery

In the first three weeks of March, when Temu (Pinduoduoduo Overseas Edition) became the most downloaded app among app stores in the United States, it was followed by TikTok's video editing partners CapCut (Pinduoduoduo Overseas Edition) and TikTok itself. Fast fashion retailer Shein ranked fourth, followed by Facebook, the only non Chinese app in the top 5.

An example highlights how American consumers are immersed in the app ecosystem created by Chinese companies: Under the label of # temu Good Things Sharing, Generation Z customers showcase their crazy shopping gains in TikTok videos, and add titles such as "various $50 items that are ubiquitous on Temu" to the video

These apps come from companies founded by a younger generation of Chinese technology entrepreneurs. As the domestic market saturates, they are seeking global growth and are supported by China's vast technology talent pool. Investors, engineers, and analysts say the organizational efficiency of Chinese internet companies has been ignored by American competitors. Chinese companies have invested heavily in promoting their own apps in the United States. They use hundreds of millions of Internet users in China to test user preferences, optimize artificial intelligence models, and then export technology overseas.
A former senior engineer of TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, said, "They are really doing a great job in the market that needs to constantly update products to meet user needs.

Multiple teams with ByteDance develop the same but slightly changed products or functions. Pinduoduoduo said its research and development investment in 2022 increased by 15% year-on-year, mostly to attract talents. When Chinese companies see opportunities, they are far more willing to buy traffic earlier and on a larger scale than their American counterparts. Currently, wired earphones or dog cords on Temu sell for less than $2, attracting Americans who are tired of inflation.

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I think it's pretty like Japan's video games dominated USA during 1980s'. But this time it influences more industries in US.
 

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