China exported
5.2 millions cars in 2023,and Japan was 4.3 millions, Germany was 2.89 m, there are some analysis.
(Translation by Baidu)
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A few days ago, a post mentioned that
China's automobile export volume was 5.2 million units last year, surpassing Japan to become the world's number one. It is almost certain that a friend in the industry has talked to me about this indicator, and some conclusions are quite interesting:
01. First of all, let's conclude that the export volume is an important indicator, but it is only one of the dimensions to measure industrial competitiveness and has certain limitations. It cannot yet indicate that China's automotive industry has become a global hegemon; However, the competitiveness of China's automotive industry is not fully reflected in this indicator.
Firstly, for products like cars, manufacturers tend to manufacture locally or nearby, and export requires paying sea freight. In recent years, shipping costs have skyrocketed, and
shipping a Model 3 to Europe costs over $1500. Car companies are now queuing up for capacity, and BYD has even placed orders for roll on/roll off ships.
Secondly, imported cars from various countries are subject to taxes, with developed countries having lower tariffs and developing countries having higher tariffs. For example,
India's vehicle tariffs exceed 60%, Brazil's tariffs exceed 35%, our country's tariffs are 25%, and Europe's tariffs are around 10%. The tariffs in the United States range from 2.5% to 25%, and the history of rust causing fellow countrymen to smash foreign cars is much stronger than in China.
04. Therefore, automobile giants tend to (or are forced to) set up factories locally to manufacture cars. For example, in
2022, Japan produced 7.84 million cars domestically, but Japanese companies produced 17 million cars overseas; Germany produced 3.5 million cars domestically in 22 years, but German companies produced 9.6 million cars overseas.
05. Currently, Chinese car companies have just increased their overseas car manufacturing schedule. For example, BYD has factories in Brazil, Thailand, Hungary, India, SAIC has factories in Thailand, Indonesia, India, etc. However, they are either just starting construction or have limited production capacity, which cannot be compared with domestic production. Therefore, the main focus is still on exports.
06. Under the multiple pressures of sea transportation, tariffs, and anti globalization, China's automobile exports can still experience a three level jump in three years, ranking third in 2021, second in 2022, and first in 2023. This also indirectly demonstrates that domestic manufacturing costs are truly low - the only way to achieve success in the world is through low costs.
07. PS sentence: This time, China ranked first in terms of "automobile export quantity", not output value.
The country with the highest output value should be Germany, where exporting one Porsche is worth exporting ten Havals.
08. In addition, the main force of China's automobile exports is fuel vehicles, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is only about 30%. The domestic electric vehicle war has become a pot of porridge, and the monsters rolled out will have a lot of space in the world. The path is not exactly the same as that of smart phones, but also basically very different.
9. Therefore, becoming the world's number one automobile exporter is a milestone event, but it cannot be said that China's automobile industry competitiveness is invincible globally. In the future, we will definitely see an increase in overseas manufacturing volume of Chinese automobile companies. Only by catching up with companies like Toyota and Volkswagen globally can we completely become the number one automobile power.
10. Someone may ask: Is the indicator of "overseas production capacity of automobile companies" more important than "automobile export volume"? Not really. A car manufactured domestically and sold overseas represents that the employment, taxation, and supply chain behind the car remain in China. Therefore, compared to car companies building factories overseas and distributing profits to shareholders, locally manufactured cars have greater social significance.
11. To maintain the scale of "local manufacturing, global sales", local production efficiency is the most crucial indicator.
Japan and Germany have done a good job in this regard, and China's manufacturing efficiency has also improved rapidly in recent years. We need to thank joint venture car manufacturers for more than 30 years of operation in China, which has cultivated a mature talent pool and supply chain for China.