China Economy: News & Discussion

rockdog

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Azaad

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Some information like to share:

1. Most SOE in real estate is still in operation, they are more conservertive on growth, not as crazy as private companies
Any reference or citation and I don't mean stuff from People's Daily , Xinhua , Global Times & other such CCP approved media.

2. China made "three red lines" for real estate industry from 2019, China killed those crazy companies on purpose.
Total liabilities disclosed by Evergrande, Kaisa and Shimao was more than 2.6 trillion yuan as of mid-2021, after which the three developers' financial problems worsened. They make up just a fraction of the industry.
At that scale, even if the central government spent hundreds of billions of yuan it would have little effect, said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR.
We do not expect bail outs of the troubled developers, while the 'market-oriented' approach of supporting high-quality developers could continue...
Barclays

That's not considering that the government is now far more strapped for cash compared to three years ago, he said, pointing to falling revenue from land sales and taxes, and increased spending on Covid measures.
China's central government collected about 9.15 trillion yuan ($1.26 trillion) in total public revenue in 2021, according to the Ministry of Finance.
That revenue for the first eight months of the year was 6.36 trillion yuan, down by nearly 10% from a year ago without accounting for tax credits.

Plenty of articles to this effect on the net & this article itself is a year old back in the day when CCP was busy re imposing lockdowns.


3. Chinese government till now didn't make any big stimulate package, it's not out of cash in fact Chinese government is the richest in the world. They don't pay 1T USD as interest like US.

The government believe the economy would back to good growth rate by its own, it already shows the trend from Q3.
I believe you. I've always maintained the Chinese are the most honest race in the world when it comes to financial & political transactions.

4. Chinese real estate GDP is lower than USA.
In the event we were discussing China not the US where growth rates over a period of time have always been between 1-2% consistently.

5. Most Chinese house, must be 30% initial payment not many speculations, so the crisis is manage-able, not like USA in 2008, there are very little derivatives, most buyers are true family for their 1st, 2nd house.
China is a nation of savers, and real estate is where the country stashes its money. A boom in homeownership over the past two decades has funneled an enormous share of China’s household wealth—70%—into real estate, according to Loomis Sayles. In the U.S., that share is 35%.
Now, Beijing—recognizing China’s dwindling population growth, slowing urbanization, and inflated home prices—is trying to wean the property sector off the debt that fueled its rise and, in turn, reduce the economy’s reliance on the property sector and related industries, the largest contributor to GDP at 30%. The effort is starving developers of funds, leaving projects like Sunshine Peninsula in limbo and adding urgency to Beijing’s campaign to hook citizens on other means of investment, such as its domestic stock market. Home sales and housing prices are starting to tick down after years of spikes—early signs that Chinese citizens may be rethinking the role of their homes as trusty piggy banks.
As China’s savings rate has climbed, so too has its rate of homeownership, which hit 90% in 2017 and hasn’t budged since. In urban areas, 96% of all households own at least one home; 20% own at least two, according to the People’s Bank of China.
In China, owning a home is synonymous with “security for retirement,” says Iris Pang, chief China economist at Dutch bank ING. And for years, real estate was a reliable investment strategy. Home prices in China have skyrocketed in the past two decades.

One Chinese homeowner surnamed Hong bought her first apartment in Shenzhen’s Nanshan district in 2002 for $161,447. It’s now worth $3.6 million. Her second apartment, in the city’s Futian neighborhood, worth $627,000 in 2007, is now valued at $2 million.

As a middle-class person working a standard job with a run-of-the-mill salary … saving my salary would never be enough for living, a family, and for retirement,” she says. “There’s simply no other way to grow my money than to put it into property.”
The notion that real estate was a risk-free place to park money helped fuel China’s urban sprawl. Buyers would pay upfront for yet-to-be-built apartments that, often, they never planned to live in, providing developers with the equivalent of interest-free loans. Roughly 65 million of China’s homes—enough to hold the population of France—are empty.


6. Except Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen. House price in big cities are 8000RMB - 20000RMB/m2 ($1400-3000). It's pretty stable now, considering normal working people's salary is 6000-15000RMB ($800-2000), it's a good pricing. That's why recently, the tourism, restaurant, EVs sales are booming, young people don't need to pay 50% of salary just for buying apartment.
Already answered this in the above point.

7. After stablized the real estate, now China is shifting into new growth engine. The EV, new engery, AI, indigenized chip are driving the growth now.


"China's down is India's gain", it's the mindset from day 1 when this thread created, I understand.
China's rise isn't peaceful non predatory & in India's or the world's interest as has been clearly demonstrated in the events from 2020 till date especially with the Wuhan virus . That's not just India's assessment but that of the West - your principal trading partner.
 

Azaad

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What a win win story, it means India economy is growing.
So all those articles from national & international sources posted here were as genuine as the articles in People's Daily , Xinhua , Global Times & other CCP approved media according to you . It's only news that India imported a certain quantity of steel from China which is proof of India's growth. I like you & your way of thinking.
 

rockdog

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Any reference or citation and I don't mean stuff from People's Daily , Xinhua , Global Times & other such CCP approved media.






Plenty of articles to this effect on the net & this article itself is a year old back in the day when CCP was busy re imposing lockdowns.




I believe you. I've always maintained the Chinese are the most honest race in the world when it comes to financial & political transactions.



In the event we were discussing China not the US where growth rates over a period of time have always been between 1-2% consistently.

















Already answered this in the above point.



China's rise isn't peaceful non predatory & in India's or the world's interest as has been clearly demonstrated in the events from 2020 till date especially with the Wuhan virus . That's not just India's assessment but that of the West - your principal trading partner.
Well, the new construction sites, companies in the supply chains, people, they exist around me on daily basis.

And u are debating me line by line bases on some articles... I would write 2000 words to explain my POV, but It's little wasting time. Even i would changing ur POV, it doesn't make sense to me.

Just like there are countless articles both in Chinese and English for ur caste system, but i don't want to use it to strike some of ur other topics. Since i know for a nation's internal issue, the real situation is far more complicated than only citing few articles.
 

Azaad

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Well, the new construction sites, companies in the supply chains, people, they exist around me on daily basis.

And u are debating me line by line bases on some articles... I would write 2000 words to explain my POV, but It's little wasting time. Even i would changing ur POV, it doesn't make sense to me.

Just like there are countless articles both in Chinese and English for ur caste system, but i don't want to use it to strike some of ur other topics. Since i know for a nation's internal issue, the real situation is far more complicated than only citing few articles.
Construction will always continue . It's not as if China's collapsed. It's a particular sector which has been a key driver of China's GDP growth which no longer will contribute as much to the GDP as before.

And if you object to the excessive scrutiny you're subject to ,you shouldn't be boasting about your achievements every time you get a chance whether in here or out there. Remember for every metric of success you achieve today , there'd be a time you'd fail & your failure will always be twice as spectacular as your success or at least the perception of it would be.

Hence the saying from your very own - hide your strength , bide your time . It means don't boast , achieve whatever you set out to achieve without boasting & a time will come when you don't even have to advertise your power , it'd be self evident. Alas ! Since the past 15 years , even before great helmsman 2.0 took over you forgot what your own great leader had to say.

Which is why I've always believed that only if China kept a low profile & focused on its economy for another 2 decades , the US & the west would've never noticed & would be distracted like they are now in their usual power play politics in Europe & Asia like thet are in the Ukraine war , the Syrian civil war , the sometimes cold sometimes hot war with Iran & now the Israel vs Hamas war among other distractions. But no , you had to go ahead with your plans & revealed your hand in the bargain.

Too bad for you & good for the rest of the world for had you stuck to the original schedule of reunification with Taiwan by 2049 which to put it terms understandable to you would mean - hide your strength , bide your time , you'd have been impregnable & unstoppable.

Finally what's the caste system got to do here . For your information there's already a lot of information about it in our own publications as well as international ones which again are either genuine or spurious or mostly a combination of both written with an agenda.

The difference between a closed society like China & an open society like India is in the former open discussion is never permitted with the result that misinformation is the name of the game right from the government of the day downwards which is why most of the criticism against China is itself couched in speculation besides the obvious counter propaganda to your official propaganda.

This is very difficult to replicate in open societies for if the government puts out information , it will immediately be challenged within the country itself before foreigners get a chance to speak up. This is the difference between closed & open societies & it's a very vital difference.
 

rockdog

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Construction will always continue . It's not as if China's collapsed. It's a particular sector which has been a key driver of China's GDP growth which no longer will contribute as much to the GDP as before.
This is exact CCP wanted, since real estate growth won't be sustainable. Need to put it down before it make another 2008 crisis. Luckily, we recent made progress on new engines, HSR, big plan, new energy, EVs, AI, Chips ...

15 yrs ago, best majors from universities were contruction and finance, now the hottest professions are materials, machinery and chemicals.

So i can expect the manufactures in China will still booming in next decades.


My friend in local government spent 5 yrs, established Delviery Centers for those big online tutoring companies from coastal lines, created 10,000+ jobs, over one night CCP made a ban, everthing became ZERO. Everyone knows this is a bad industry, but only CCP had gut to kill it in few months.



Construction will always continue . It's not as if China's collapsed. It's a particular sector which has been a key driver of China's GDP growth which no longer will contribute as much to the GDP as before.

And if you object to the excessive scrutiny you're subject to ,you shouldn't be boasting about your achievements every time you get a chance whether in here or out there. Remember for every metric of success you achieve today , there'd be a time you'd fail & your failure will always be twice as spectacular as your success or at least the perception of it would be.

Hence the saying from your very own - hide your strength , bide your time . It means don't boast , achieve whatever you set out to achieve without boasting & a time will come when you don't even have to advertise your power , it'd be self evident. Alas ! Since the past 15 years , even before great helmsman 2.0 took over you forgot what your own great leader had to say.

Which is why I've always believed that only if China kept a low profile & focused on its economy for another 2 decades , the US & the west would've never noticed & would be distracted like they are now in their usual power play politics in Europe & Asia like thet are in the Ukraine war , the Syrian civil war , the sometimes cold sometimes hot war with Iran & now the Israel vs Hamas war among other distractions. But no , you had to go ahead with your plans & revealed your hand in the bargain.

Too bad for you & good for the rest of the world for had you stuck to the original schedule of reunification with Taiwan by 2049 which to put it terms understandable to you would mean - hide your strength , bide your time , you'd have been impregnable & unstoppable.
As an elephant, you can't hide urself in a small room. When the Huawei became top1 in 2019, threating westerner's cash cow, they are trying to kill u anyway, no matter you "hide your strength , bide your time" or not, same logic applies to China.

And if we don't make OROB, we can't climb the value chain and sale it. But if we make OROB, it will make the noise in international community.

Sometimes when you big enough, you have no choice.



Finally what's the caste system got to do here . For your information there's already a lot of information about it in our own publications as well as international ones which again are either genuine or spurious or mostly a combination of both written with an agenda.

The difference between a closed society like China & an open society like India is in the former open discussion is never permitted with the result that misinformation is the name of the game right from the government of the day downwards which is why most of the criticism against China is itself couched in speculation besides the obvious counter propaganda to your official propaganda.

This is very difficult to replicate in open societies for if the government puts out information , it will immediately be challenged within the country itself before foreigners get a chance to speak up. This is the difference between closed & open societies & it's a very vital difference.
Between India and Singapore, who is a more open society? Maybe India, but if you ask me which style we wanna go? I personally chose Singapore. I think China is on the way of becoming the mega size of it, this might be arranged after Deng Xiaoping met Lee Lee kuan yew during 1980s'.
 
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SexyChineseLady

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Some information like to share:

1. Most SOE in real estate is still in operation, they are more conservertive on growth, not as crazy as private companies

2. China made "three red lines" for real estate industry from 2019, China killed those crazy companies on purpose.

3. Chinese government till now didn't make any big stimulate package, it's not out of cash in fact Chinese government is the richest in the world. They don't pay 1T USD as interest like US.

The government believe the economy would back to good growth rate by its own, it already shows the trend from Q3.

4. Chinese real estate GDP is lower than USA.

5. Most Chinese house, must be 30% initial payment not many speculations, so the crisis is manage-able, not like USA in 2008, there are very little derivatives, most buyers are true family for their 1st, 2nd house.

6. Except Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen. House price in big cities are 8000RMB - 20000RMB/m2 ($1400-3000). It's pretty stable now, considering normal working people's salary is 6000-15000RMB ($800-2000), it's a good pricing. That's why recently, the tourism, restaurant, EVs sales are booming, young people don't need to pay 50% of salary just for buying apartment.

7. After stablized the real estate, now China is shifting into new growth engine. The EV, new engery, AI, indigenized chip are driving the growth now.


"China's down is India's gain", it's the mindset from day 1 when this thread created, I understand.
Yes, there is a LOT of money. But they go into into industry not a RE bubble:
IMG_1082.png


If people think China's industrial base is massive now. Wait a few years when the later investments pay off. It will be like EV, Solar and Shipbuilding and HSR we see today but also in semiconductors, aircraft, space and many of the upcoming technologies like mag-lev, fusion and 6th G (Internet of Things on Mobile) that no one else could afford to invest in.
 

rockdog

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Yes, there is a LOT of money. But they go into into industry not a RE bubble:
View attachment 227709

If people think China's industrial base is massive now. Wait a few years when the later investments pay off. It will be like EV, Solar and Shipbuilding and HSR we see today but also in semiconductors, aircraft, space and many of the upcoming technologies like mag-lev, fusion and 6th G (Internet of Things on Mobile) that no one else could afford to invest in.
Sometimes, if u r alive, u r the theat to others...

img-169840698900327ac1aa3ecd62da2d3c46636222388bef0ce1e68355a46dd370c025359d88520.jpg
 

Azaad

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This is exact CCP wanted, since real estate growth won't be sustainable. Need to put it down before it make another 2008 crisis. Luckily, we recent made progress on new engines, HSR, big plan, new energy, EVs, AI, Chips ...
You make it sound as though the CCP planned this out. No it didn't. It sprang into action once it saw major construction giants like Evergrande defaulting. Now the CCP & its slaves cum cheerleaders like you are intent on spinning this off as some sort of huge calculative plan by the CCP which wanted to reform this sector.

Further it doesn't account for the vast number of citizens who've paid their advances but haven't received possession of their properties who then refused to pay their mortgages. That's still not completely addressed & is a ticking time bomb which is why presently the Chinese aren't spending at all but saving as the future is uncertain. That explains your deflation.

EVs , AI , Chips etc while impacting the vast majority of people actually lines the pockets of a few unlike say common industry - light medium or heavy or even the realty sector. More than domestic consumption , you stand to benefit thru exports but the most lucrative markets where the real cream lies - the west is gradually erecting barriers for your products in this segment .

Hence you've to content yourself with secondary & tertiary markets like Latin America , Africa , ASEAN etc . India would've provided you with adequate growth like it did with TikTok where before it was banned , it had the largest subscriber base outside China. You ruined the market all on your own .

15 yrs ago, best major from universities was contruction and finance, now the hottest profesions are materials and chemicals.
My friend in local government spent 5 yrs, established Delviery Centers for those big online tutoring companies from coastal lines, created 10,000 jobs, over one night CCP made a ban, everthing became ZERO. Everyone knows this is a bad industry, but only CCP had gut to kill it in few months.

You seem to have friends all over the place. But what the hell , you're a pal & you're Chinese. I trust you implicitly. The realty industry was killed by greed . CCP is merely burying the corpse & along with it a lot of live Chinese people. Eventually on the day of final reckoning all such incidents like these add up to explode into discontent when the CCP slaves believe the CCP has lost the mandate of heaven. Has happened plenty of times in your history. This'd be one more time .

As an elephant, you can't hide urself inside a small room. When the Huawei became top1 in 2019, threating westerner's cash cow, they are trying to kill u anyway.
Well what do you expect ? Gwailou loves putting his hand in your pocket bit doesn't like you doing the same to him . How many times must I explain it to you ?

And if we don't make OROB, we can't climb the value chain. But if we make OROB, it will make the noise in international community.
Your BRI or OROB is now over . It was a nice con game while it lasted but too many economically unviable projects at financially unviable terms resulting in bankruptcies & seizing of assets like in Sri Lanka before the country itself went bankrupt is something that didn't escape the world's notice . Moreover when China launched BRI / OROB , it was in the pre Wuhan virus era where China was loaded with cash , its beneficiaries all starry eyed expecting miracles besides of course the kickbacks you paid to all those politicians across the world to accept your ridiculous terms of agreement all lop sided in your favour.

Ever since most of these projects started going bankrupt which were financially unviable to begin with your banks no longer have the capacities to bear more losses which is why the latest editions of your BRI / OBOR summits are no longer hyped but rather low key. Countries like Italy which once enthusiastically participated in it have withdrawn. Shows the world what they need to see instead of what the CCP is showing them .

Sometimes when you big enough, you have no choice.
Yeah . Perhaps you ought to take a leaf from the US . Nobody likes them but no country can do without them . Can the same be said of China ? Absolutely not .


Between India and Singapore, who is a more open society? Maybe India, but if you ask me which style we wanna go? I personally chose Singapore. I think China is on the way of becoming the mega size of it, this might be arranged after Deng Xiaoping met Lee Lee kuan yew during 1980s'.
Are you actually comparing a nation of 5 million people + 5 million immigrants to a nation of 1.4 billion people ? What's wrong with you ?

And if CCP believes they can be the bigger version of Singapore all the best to them. The things which makes Singapore , Singapore is zero corruption , meritocracy & rule of law above everything. CCP is the most corrupt organization on the face of the earth where development & corruption goes hand in hand , meritocracy & rule of law depends on which party faction you owe your loyalty to .

And you know the best thing ? Your great helmsman 2.0 is actually trying to implement exactly what you're suggesting except it's too late in the day as corruption is well entrenched in your system. Maybe that's why great helmsman 2.0 banned that book on the last Ming Emperor - Chongzhen Emperor for he too tried to reform the Ming Empire which was unreformable by the time he ascended the throne & through his mis steps. haste & poor judgement he brought about the end of the empire faster than most expected.

Except your great helmsman 2.0 is a work of art . He's purging his opponents under the guise of reforming the system. But by the looks of it , he's facing massive push back from the various factions in the CCP. What else explains his getting rid of Qin Gang & Li Shangfu ? Hope the 2 men are still alive .

Finally Singapore is a monarchy masquerading as a democracy where the eldest family member of the Lee family is the PM & other family members occupy important state positions in Singapore like the head of their sovereign investment arm - Temasek , etc . So yes , I'm sure you'd find yourself completely at home in such a set up & your great helmsman 2.0 is probably implementing his version of Singapore style governance in China. All the best to you. I've a feeling you'd need it .
 

SexyChineseLady

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The US sabotaged China's investment and participation in Galileo, the end result was the birth of Beidou:

IMG_1091.jpeg


IMG_1092.jpeg


The BeiDou constellation is newer and has more satellites than any other system and has more than ten times as many monitoring stations around the world than GPS does. As a result, BeiDou’s accuracy is much better in many places, including the developing world.

...

BeiDou being newer and more advanced than other GNSS, makes it easier for China to encourage other nations to use its signals and purchase specialized equipment, especially when equipment purchases are heavily subsidized by the Chinese government, harming the U.S. economy and its status as the leader of GNSS technology.

Recent launch and surveillance fears

On May 16, 2023, China launched its most recent BeiDou satellite to replenish the constellation, bringing its total to 56 satellites, nearly twice as many as the 31 GPS satellites.

The latest BeiDou satellites also feature two-way messaging, a feature that GPS does not have.
 

SexyChineseLady

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So all these people making videos FROM China are fake and lying. Right..

Here is another one. Your economy is down the gutter

You can believe all you want ;) Just like the people who believed in Gordon Chang decade after decade. At least he wrote a book, those are anti-Chinese YT channels where you can post anything they gleaned from Weibo and Chinese sociel media and deliberately do it out of context :)
 

SexyChineseLady

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;) (While rest of the world is in a recession with inflation threatening the Western world and India too.)

 

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