China Economy: News & Discussion

[SexyChineseLady]

You most certainly can overbuild infrastructure, there are several examples of that. And yes most certainly it's an expensive proposition, which only provides returns in situations where very dense population centers are connected to each other and the distance between these centres is 300-700 km. Frankly we built it with cheap JICA debt, otherwise I am not sure if it would be financially responsible.

What you are suggesting is that we take upon these expensive transit projects without any cost analysis because they are expensive? A Lamborghini is very often a status symbol, you don't build transit as a status symbol.

I am suggesting that countries can never overbuild on something this expensive. All countries must do cost analysis first or they would run out of money before the project could even finish.

China were able to build 40K kms of HSR because they can afford it. And they knew they could after years of analysis. They did not build 40K kms at once.

India needs to finish its first few hundred miles of HSR before it'll know whether it could afford any more. Worrying about overbuilding HSR before you have any is like me worrying about buying too many Lambhorghinis.

 

[Azaad]

China set to build giant chip factory using a particle accelerator

Unprecedented technology may offer a way to bypass US sanctions and see China lead semiconductor industry.

www.scmp.com

China plans to build a giant chip factory driven by particle accelerator

if true; huge development. US chip monopoly coming to an end.

These guys have been boasting they've cracked quantum computing too. Now I used to follow this a bit years ago with the declaration provided that a breakthrough was imminent & commercial exploitation was but a few years away . This was in 2010 & guess who made such grand statements. We're in 2023 today.

 

[Azaad]

You most certainly can overbuild infrastructure, there are several examples of that. And yes most certainly it's an expensive proposition, which only provides returns in situations where very dense population centers are connected to each other and the distance between these centres is 300-700 km. Frankly we built it with cheap JICA debt, otherwise I am not sure if it would be financially responsible.

What you are suggesting is that we take upon these expensive transit projects without any cost analysis because they are expensive? A Lamborghini is very often a status symbol, you don't build transit as a status symbol.

Are you a newcomer here that you're actually asking a wumao for an honest opinion ? Pls go thru the posts of the member in question before posing such questions.

You'd get condescending sneers to the inexplicable & everything in between except an honest answer partly coz there's no such thing as an honest Chinese , secondly you're chatting to a certified bot who's programmed only for dissemination of propaganda & lastly doesn't have the faintest clue about pretty much anything.

 

[Anupu]

I am suggesting that countries can never overbuild on something this expensive. All countries must do cost analysis first or they would run out of money before the project could even finish.

China were able to build 40K kms of HSR because they can afford it.

India needs to finish its first few hundred miles of HSR before it'll know whether it could afford any more.

That's was a non answer, if there was ever one. Anyways I did some digging around, sone lines of the HSR in china are generating an operating profit but most are at loss. China is most certainly subsidising its eastern HSR, which is again fine if you believe that.

I for one am tired of subsidised loss making public white elepants, and would much prefer our government doesn't overbuild this nonsense as they are getting dangerously close with metro transit in the country.

 

[Anupu]

Are you a newcomer here that you're actually asking a wumao for an honest opinion ? Pls go thru the posts of the member in question before posing such questions.

You'd get condescending sneers to the inexplicable & everything in between except an honest answer partly coz there's no such thing as an honest Chinese , secondly you're chatting to a certified bot who's programmed only for dissemination of propaganda & lastly doesn't have the faintest clue about pretty much anything.

Sure I can feel the condescendtion bhai. Don't worry, but it's fun. I am just trying to have a conversation.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

I for one am tired of subsidised loss making public white elepants, and would much prefer our government doesn't overbuild this nonsense as they are getting dangerously close with metro transit in the country.

Your government won't. Don't worry. It'll do the cost analysis and see that it can't afford any more and we might never see another HSR line in India after the first.

It is the same in China. It did the cost analysis, saw that it was viable and then built the next 10000 kms.

 

[Anupu]

Your government won't. Don't worry. It'll do the cost analysis and see that it can't afford any more and we might never see another HSR line in India after the first.

It is the same in China. It did the cost analysis, saw that it was viable and then built the next 10000 kms.

Except the Chinese HSR network makes annual losses. So clearly they don't know how to do very good profitability analysis. Then again command economies tend to ignore these things. Authoritrian regimes + massive Infrastructure projects have always led to these kind of loss making white elephants.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Huawei unveiled another device with the Kirin 9000S -- the MatePad Pro:

There are now at least five models based on the Kirin 9000S:

Mate 60 Pro
Mate 60 Pro+
Mate 60 RS
Mate X5
MatePad Pro

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Except the Chinese HSR network makes annual losses. So clearly they don't know how to do very good profitability analysis. Then again command economies tend to ignore these things. Authoritrian regimes + massive Infrastructure projects have always led to these kind of loss making white elephants.

Cost analysis. Very very few national infrastructure is profitable or for "profit" to begin with. Look at the US Interstate Highway System. It never made money. Same with Amtrak, the American national rail company.

If China or any other government could not afford HSR, it wouldn't be able to build it. These things are not magical. If a government do not have the money, it can't build them. China has the money to build HSR.

If India has the money it will build HSR. If no money then it will not build it. Don't worry

 

[omaebakabaka]

Except the Chinese HSR network makes annual losses. So clearly they don't know how to do very good profitability analysis. Then again command economies tend to ignore these things. Authoritrian regimes + massive Infrastructure projects have always led to these kind of loss making white elephants.

Losses are ok, they atleast go great HSR in place, as with communist models, there are some good and great things they do but there is cost to it. USSR also pushed the science forward but at what cost? Stupidity and ego and needless pride never end well, but we are not there yet to have over build problem in anything but we do have problem with underbuild and quality even though its getting better. China did lot better in investing in HSR and few other things than wars like west, no need to view everything with same glasses. CCP is a system where something's move forward at the cost of people but it may bring some benefits too....I would pick HSR over war anyday to waste my money if both are corruption.

Countries go bust, economies go bust and so do societies and people and beliefs and so on if not for anything but due to entropy and inertia. When you have money, build things that are useful, things like transportation and major public infra needs to operate at more or less breakeven over time....don;'t get too caught up in how things are in west....they will stop functioning the moment their economies come into life support. There has to be a purpose behind any economics, just profits or growth chasing is stupidity.

 

[Anupu]

Cost analysis. Very very few national infrastructure is profitable or for "profit" to begin with. Look at the US Interstate Highway System. It never made money. Same with Amtrak, the American national rail company.

If China or any other government could not afford HSR, it wouldn't be able to build it. These things are not magical. If a government do not have the money, it can't build them. China has the money to build HSR.

If India has the money it will build HSR. If no money then it will not build it. Don't worry

That's absolutely not correct, interstate highway system is paid for. Now it's only maintenance cost that's born by the taxpayers funded by vehicular taxes. The lines on which amtrak runs are also paid for, frieght trains which run on these lines are private only trains which carry passengers are subsidized which is also a stupid waste of money.

Chinese HSR is not paid for, it's debt is still there. It's loosing money on it's annual operations before debt repayments are even taken into account. Not to mention you can't use these lines for frieght.

I guess it is a Lamborghini, expensive, fast, inefficient and ultimately wasteful. As far as money is concerned thoese yes we probably shouldn't overspend on this nonsense afterall those who waste money on vanity projects may eventually find themselves without it.

 

[Anupu]

Losses are ok, they atleast go great HSR in place, as with communist models, there are some good and great things they do but there is cost to it. USSR also pushed the science forward but at what cost? Stupidity and ego and needless pride never end well, but we are not there yet to have over build problem in anything but we do have problem with underbuild and quality even though its getting better. China did lot better in investing in HSR and few other things than wars like west, no need to view everything with same glasses. CCP is a system where something's move forward at the cost of people but it may bring some benefits too....I would pick HSR over war anyday to waste my money if both are corruption.

Losses are not okay, it's stupid socialist propoganda. We also make this stupid mistake when we build metros on dubious DPRs. As if metro is the only transit option. I hope we don't announce any new metro, but we too have been bitten by the Chinese bug. But considering how nature of financing works in India soon they might get some wakeup calls.

Anyways in the worst case we will just inflate the debt away. Chinese will soon not have that option.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Losses are not okay, it's stupid socialist propoganda. We also make this stupid mistake when we build metros on dubious DPRs. As if metro is the only transit option. I hope we don't announce any new metro, but we too have been bitten by the Chinese bug. But considering how nature of financing works in India soon they might get some wakeup calls.

Anyways in the worst case we will just inflate the debt away. Chinese will soon not have that option.

Most transport projects around the world operate at a loss. No such thing as a profitable public transportation. The benefits come in other areas like connecting people, making a large area a unified economic zone etc. Overbuilding infra projects to some degree is ok. Excessive overbuilding for the sake of showing artificial gdp growth is a problem.

 

[MiG-29SMT]

Cost analysis. Very very few national infrastructure is profitable or for "profit" to begin with. Look at the US Interstate Highway System. It never made money. Same with Amtrak, the American national rail company.

If China or any other government could not afford HSR, it wouldn't be able to build it. These things are not magical. If a government do not have the money, it can't build them. China has the money to build HSR.

If India has the money it will build HSR. If no money then it will not build it. Don't worry

On Poor Quality: Corruption and Construction in China
Author
China Urban Development@AdamNMayer
As someone who works in the building industry in China, I am often asked why the quality of construction of most new buildings is so poor. The people who usually ask are expatriates from places like Europe or America; rarely does someone native to China who hasn’t spent time overseas pose the same question.
This perhaps has to do with the fact that building quality in China is relative. Most Chinese first-time home buyers moving into brand new housing tower blocks do not have the frame of reference to evaluate finish material quality. This is exacerbated by the fact most housing developers sell units as empty concrete shells, leaving it up to the owners to fit them out with finishes and fixtures.
This is not to suggest that the thousands of recently built high-rise towers across Chinese cities are on the verge of collapse. On the contrary, structural engineers in China tend to err on the side of caution when designing structural systems and from what I’ve seen on construction sites, they do not skimp on steel rebar reinforcing (especially here in Chengdu where the destruction from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is still very fresh in memory).
The second, more widespread reason that construction projects do not follow strict communication protocols between interested parties is due to corruption. Construction projects require huge budgets and bank loans- by cutting corners here and there, developers and contractors can pocket large sums of money. This means skimping on things like wall insulation, substituting quality exterior and interior cladding materials for inferior ones, and even using cheaper plumbing and electrical equipment.

So in a sense, the complexity and lack of communication is by design. This observation is confirmed in a World Bank report about the construction industry in China, with one of the key challenges facing the industry being:

On Poor Quality: Corruption and Construction in China | Smart Cities Dive

Smart Cities

www.smartcitiesdive.com

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Losses are not okay, it's stupid socialist propoganda. We also make this stupid mistake when we build metros on dubious DPRs. As if metro is the only transit option. I hope we don't announce any new metro, but we too have been bitten by the Chinese bug. But considering how nature of financing works in India soon they might get some wakeup calls.

Anyways in the worst case we will just inflate the debt away. Chinese will soon not have that option.

One of your Indian compatriots posted this on debt:

Judging from that why do you think debt is a problem?

Doesn't seem much of a problem to me when every country on that list is wealthy and first world. And all the wealthiest Western nations have many times the debt of China.

The reality is poor nations cannot generate debt without going into hyper-inflation. Developing nations like India or Uganda cannot generate enough debt to build even useful things without going into inflation that collapses their currency. This is why they are underdeveloped.

Nations develop with debt. If you have to wait until you can actually afford to buy a house with cash you will be waiting for very long time -- or more likely you will be waiting forever since prices will inflate from the ones buying houses on credit

Among countries, you can accumulate debt and then print money to cover that debt as long as you do not go into hyperinflation. Rich nations can do this. Poor countries trying to do the same go into hyperinflation.

Debt is a priviledge of the wealthy.

 

[omaebakabaka]

The reality is poor nations cannot generate debt without going into hype-inflation. Developing nations like India or Uganda cannot generate enough debt to build even useful things without going into inflation that collapses their currency. This is why they are underdeveloped.

what is this nonsense? Do you think China or America or others were all developed from the beginning of time? What CCP considers development means nothing to certain countries or people, what you eat in China is considered disgusting in other countries....if your country was so great then so many Chinese would not continue living in other countries including underdeveloped ones....only thing that happens to systems like the one in China is an eventual failure....same with west. Psychotic and frankly tasteless thought process....no wonder brutal emperors followed by a thuggish CCP rules over nutcases like you. Nothing original from China in modern times...move on....still underdeveloped in concept.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

what is this nonsense? Do you think China or America or others were all developed from the beginning of time? What CCP considers development means nothing to certain countries or people, what you eat in China is considered disgusting in other countries....if your country was so great then so many Chinese would not continue living in other countries including underdeveloped ones....only thing that happens to systems like the one in China is an eventual failure....same with west. Psychotic and frankly tasteless thought process....no wonder brutal emperors followed by a thuggish CCP rules over nutcases like you. Nothing original from China in modern times...move on....still underdeveloped in concept.

I am sorry but this is the world we live in -- look closely:

China is still a poor developing nation.

China has much greater consumption than the US. China uses twice as much electricity and buts twice as much cars. It should be able to afford at least as much debt as the US but it has only 1/10th of debt of the US. That is because China is still poor and developing.

But it has many years of development to come and much more debt to grow like the West!

 

[Azaad]

I am sorry but this is the world we live in -- look closely:
View attachment 224000

China is still a poor developing nation.

China has much greater consumption than the US. China uses twice as much electricity and buts twice as much cars. It should be able to afford at least as much debt as the US but it has only 1/10th of debt of the US. That is because China is still poor and developing.

But it has many years of development to come and much more debt to grow like the West!

Explain Evergrande then. At the height of the Lehman bros crisis in 2008 - 09 the US came out with a bail out package of all those affected entities. Where's the CCP bail out package for Evergrande & other construction companies either bankrupt or on the verge of it.

After all according to you all the CCP has to do is print more renminbis which doesn't cause any inflation in china in the least for laws of economics don't affect China just like in the HSR case study & what's now being reported in the Western media as deflation is actually very low inflation.

 

[MiG-29SMT]

I am sorry but this is the world we live in -- look closely:
View attachment 224000

China is still a poor developing nation.

China has much greater consumption than the US. China uses twice as much electricity and buts twice as much cars. It should be able to afford at least as much debt as the US but it has only 1/10th of debt of the US. That is because China is still poor and developing.

But it has many years of development to come and much more debt to grow like the West!

our friend does not understand China has much lower salaries than Spain or Italy

Households Debt in China increased to 99.90 % of gross income in 2018 from 93.40 % in 2017.

China Households Debt To Income

Households Debt in China increased to 99.90 % of gross income in 2018 from 93.40 % in 2017. This page provides - China Households Debt To Income- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Households Debt to Income - Countries - List

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Households Debt to Income.

tradingeconomics.com

Mapped: Minimum Wage Around the World

This infographic shows the net minimum wage across 67 countries, as of January 2023. A breakdown by U.S. state is also included.

www.visualcapitalist.com

obviously higher salary lower debt means better economic state

• China household debt accounted for 63.3 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Mar 2023, compared with the ratio of 61.9 % in the previous quarter.
• China household debt to GDP ratio is updated quarterly, available from Mar 2007 to Mar 2023.
• The data reached an all-time high of 63.3 % in Mar 2023 and a record low of 17.9 % in Dec 2008.

CEIC calculates quarterly Household Debt as % of Nominal GDP from monthly Household Debt and quarterly Nominal GDP. The People's Bank of China provides Household Debt in local currency. The National Bureau of Statistics provides year-to-date Nominal GDP in local currency. Loans are used due to the lack of Flow of Funds statistics.


Related information about China Household Debt: % of GDP

• In the latest reports, China Household Debt reached 10,834.1 USD bn in Jun 2023.
• Money Supply M2 in China increased 11.6 % YoY in May 2023.
• China Foreign Exchange Reserves was measured at 3,193.0 USD bn in Jun 2023.
• The Foreign Exchange Reserves equaled 14.9 Months of Import in Jun 2023.
• China Domestic Credit reached 43,669.0 USD bn in Jun 2023, representing an increased of 10.8 % YoY.
• The country's Non Performing Loans Ratio stood at 1.6 % in Mar 2023, compared with the ratio of 1.6 % in the previous quarter.

China Household Debt: % of GDP, 2007 – 2023 | CEIC Data

China household debt accounted for 63.3 % of the country's Nominal GDP in Mar 2023, compared with the ratio of 61.9 % in the previous quarter.

www.ceicdata.com

 

[MiG-29SMT]

Explain Evergrande then. At the height of the Lehman bros crisis in 2008 - 09 the US came out with a bail out package of all those affected entities. Where's the CCP bail out package for Evergrande & other construction companies either bankrupt or on the verge of it.

After all according to you all the CCP has to do is print more renminbis which doesn't cause any inflation in china in the least for laws of economics don't affect China just like in the HSR case study & what's now being reported in the Western media as deflation is actually very low inflation.

he forgets corruption, lower salaries why do you think he lives in the west. the guy is not in China