China Economy: News & Discussion

SexyChineseLady

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China has a new industrial pillar for growth ;)


BYD Widens Gap with Tesla in Q3 2022, Leads Global EV Market
DECEMBER 1, 2022

|BY ABHIK MUKHERJEE
  • Three of the top five best-selling EV brands in Q3 2022 were from China.
  • The top 10 EV models accounted for more than 35% of global EV sales.
  • EVs constituted over 15% of the world’s passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2022.
New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – December 1, 2022

Global passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales grew 71% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. In total EV sales, battery EVs (BEVs) accounted for almost 74% and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) the rest. China remained the market leader in EV sales, followed by Europe and the US. China’s EV sales increased by over 100% YoY to exceed 1.7 million units from just 0.88 million units in Q3 2021. BYD Auto continued to lead the global EV market during the quarter. The Chinese automaker also managed to widen its gap with the second-placed Tesla.

CE0E5F46-4983-42BF-986C-BBA1DDF9EF0D.jpeg
 

SexyChineseLady

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Structural reforms are what opens up manufacturing and that is what India is doing. ... In any case, engine development is not a priority for India now. Rapid industrialization, leaps in manufacturing exports and urban infrastructure should be the focus. If the goals India has set get achieved like $1 trillion in exports by 2030, then we know for sure that the manufacturing ecosystem would have jumped several folds. If we don’t do that and lose exports to Vietnam, then yeah we can write off India’s aspirations, as India will grow old before it got rich enough to do sustained development of advanced technologies.
Now you will understand that India cannot be ahead of China even if RR/SaFran somehow decided to simply provide India with their crown jewel for the 110 kN aspirational engine ;) One medium engine would not put India ahead of China's engine industry with the WS-10 already and many other engines in every weight class already in production or development.

Yes, an eco-system is all important! You can build something that works perfectly in the lab but it would be worthless if you cannot productionize it with local parts and you really won't know you can mass produce something until you actually mass produce it :)

This J-10 prototype flew with a WS-10 almost 20 years ago! India was never able to put the Kaveri into the LCA so you should know how hard that is.
336930FC-922C-4389-9472-E6A0FBE0DAF5.jpeg


But China couldn't declare victory there!

Because it took two decades to finally get to here, a mass produced J-10C variant with WS-10B:
0B2F2473-34D7-47D6-9FE7-B30AC3C49775.jpeg


It took that long because the mass production piece still had to be worked out by hand. There were many single instances of J-10As and J-10Bs that flew with WS-10A or other test variants. But those were not mass produced.

So even if RR/SaFran gets that 110kN engine (hopefully without less of the foreign parts that they can embargo at their choosing!) working for India, it will undoubtedly take years to productionize. Your eco-system must be built around it.

This is the same for every other technology industry. The eco-system for Vietnam is tightly coupled with that of China. That us why they get most of the China plus One investments. A lot of it from Chinese companies. You need access to parts from China while you are building that out capacity in the Plus One country ;)
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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To be frank, i am quite cautious about such kind of optimism. Last time i was fooled by such kind of "India is rising" saga during 2004-2006.

Both Indian and western meida were bluffing "India 2.0", i remeber on the Times or Economist cover page, the Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were riding in a same motocycle and accerating...

But if from today and look back, the 2004-2019 was the key duration the China real beat India on every aspect from GDP size to most micro industries ...

Look at those Chinese new weapons and new technologies, they all need 10-20 yrs of lead time, which means when Western and India were bluffing the "India 2.0", the China were already did the hardest parts silently. I really don't know what India did then. It can be called India's lost 15 years...

Getting 40% of Apple assembly line is not that important comparing structural reform, but if Modi even couldn't make his new Farm & Farmer law alive...
You have to listen to what industrialists and investors say. It is your own fault that you ended up believing useless Congress politicians, who were the ones that bankrupted India in the first place. Manufacturing sector has had massive structural reforms in India since PM Modi took over:

- setup of Insolvency and bankruptcy code
- ready land banks and increased number of plug and play SEZs
- PLI scheme
- top rated skill development institutes have exploded the availability of skilled labor
- tax rates at par with ASEAN for manufacturing
- massive growth in global capability centers in manufacturing
- revision of patent laws to make it easy to file patents
- heavy digitalization of governance
- logistics infrastructure has improved exponentially with logistics cost falling continuously
- bank losses have been curtailed and banks restructured resulting in massive adoption of banking services across the country
- almost 100% electrification with massive investments in grid infrastructure leading to substantial increase in comfort goods consumption even in poor rural households
- massive improvements in water and sanitation infrastructure has led to multi billion dollar manufacturing in these areas.
- significant increase in domestic purchasing power. All categories of middle class household appliances have exploded - be it refrigerators, car ownership, air conditioners, luxury toilets etc.

You can look at the stocks of manufacturing and logistics companies in Indian stock markets. The value growth is explosive. This is not the congress era of incompetence and stupidity.

Farmers will eventually come around. In many states, private investment in farm infrastructure is already substantial with state-of-the-art farmer’s markets and supply chain investments like in cold storage, perishable goods infrastructure etc.

‘The growth can be gauged by the fact that there are more than 10,000 Koreans living in India today working in manufacturing and logistics sectors. There are 1500 Japanese companies, 1700 German companies, 1000+ American companies, 1000+ French companies, 1000+ Korean companies, 600+ British companies, 600+ Canadian companies, 4500 European companies etc. in India today.

Always look at what business people are saying and infrastructure being built on the ground. I am pretty positive that manufacturing and agriculture technology will explode this decade. That’s what all the industrialists and investors say as well. There is nothing holding India back today,
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Now you will understand that India cannot be ahead of China even if RR/SaFran somehow decided to simply provide India with their crown jewel for the 110 kN aspirational engine ;) One medium engine would not put India ahead of China's engine industry with the WS-10 already and many other engines in every weight class already in production or development.

Yes, an eco-system is all important! You can build something that works perfectly in the lab but it would be worthless if you cannot productionize it with local parts and you really won't know you can mass produce something until you actually mass produce it :)

This J-10 prototype flew with a WS-10 almost 20 years ago! India was never able to put the Kaveri into the LCA so you should know how hard that is.
View attachment 185311

But China couldn't declare victory there!

Because it took two decades to finally get to here, a mass produced J-10C variant with WS-10B:
View attachment 185315

It took that long because the mass production piece still had to be worked out by hand. There were many single instances of J-10As and J-10Bs that flew with WS-10A or other test variants. But those were not mass produced.

So even if RR/SaFran gets that 110kN engine (hopefully without less of the foreign parts that they can embargo at their choosing!) working for India, it will undoubtedly take years to productionize. Your eco-system must be built around it.

This is the same for every other technology industry. The eco-system for Vietnam is tightly coupled with that of China. That us why they get most of the China plus One investments. A lot of it from Chinese companies. You need access to parts from China while you are building that out capacity in the Plus One country ;)
We would leapfrog in reliability and quality as the CCP engines are a generation behind western engines. By 2030, India should have a very competent manufacturing ecosystem to produce 80-90% of the 40,000+ engine components at scale as India is a giant aviation market already, which will only increase. Plus India is the place of choice for western defense manufacturing at scale. Like I said newer technologies like 3D printing, AI modeling, advances in CAD/CAM software, cheaper robotics etc have considerably reduced prototype development times and infrastructure builds. So, what is true of past manufacturing is no longer true now.
India will have the quality advantage while CCPia may have a scale advantage by 2030. India can close the scale gap (easier to do this) but I doubt CCP will be able to close the quality gap (very hard to do this) by 2030.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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China has a new industrial pillar for growth ;)


BYD Widens Gap with Tesla in Q3 2022, Leads Global EV Market
DECEMBER 1, 2022

|BY ABHIK MUKHERJEE
  • Three of the top five best-selling EV brands in Q3 2022 were from China.
  • The top 10 EV models accounted for more than 35% of global EV sales.
  • EVs constituted over 15% of the world’s passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2022.
New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires, Hong Kong, Beijing, Seoul – December 1, 2022

Global passenger electric vehicle* (EV) sales grew 71% YoY in Q3 2022, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Model Sales Tracker. In total EV sales, battery EVs (BEVs) accounted for almost 74% and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) the rest. China remained the market leader in EV sales, followed by Europe and the US. China’s EV sales increased by over 100% YoY to exceed 1.7 million units from just 0.88 million units in Q3 2021. BYD Auto continued to lead the global EV market during the quarter. The Chinese automaker also managed to widen its gap with the second-placed Tesla.

View attachment 185260
Warren Buffett has divested a lot of his BYD holdings.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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One thing I want to clear that
The mki contract may get over but assembly of al-31fp will never
U know when the state of mki were bad I mean pre 2015 we had made 6 engines for fighter
But now due to more indigenous content and better Russian support it has been solved
U might speak about spares but to be clear many spares are manufactured by us but again critical spares could have been a issue but in future it won't as in 2021 hal has released eoi for manufacturing critical spares of al-31fp
So in future this issue will also get solved
Problem is govt support and iaf competency
Making al-31fp with a considerable amount of indigenous content has given a good experience and confidence
I just can't recall but either hal or gtre proposed project Ganga for manufacturing al-31fp without Russian help
But was squared by givt
Who knows if situation worsens then govt might lift the file
We can only go to war with Pakistan on the AL31FP engines as these require massive service-ability to prevent downtimes. Will affect the number of sorties and could crash more in a high stress, prolonged actual air combat. This is from 2015 but tells you how bad the Sukhoi engines are:

You can see how IAF is going to modify Sukhois using Indian technologies and might even put in a new engine. A GE414 derivative on the Sukhoi would make it a very reliable platform and Indian upgrades would make the plane as easy to fly as the LCA.
 

rockdog

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This development should be a massive threat for CCPia. The skill development alone, not to mention the wealth and income, is going to drive further massive innovation in India.
Wrong concludsion, and we are not that worried.

The data means for those nations USA,China,Japan,Germany most R&D are generated locally, which means their local companies (including the branch of golbal entrprise) are so strong, and it refelcts how weak Indian's local companies on R&D field.

Just one exmaple:

Huawei spent USD$22.4bn R&D on 2021, it's 15% of the whole India's government R&D.




 

SexyChineseLady

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We would leapfrog in reliability and quality as the CCP engines are a generation behind western engines. By 2030, India should have a very competent manufacturing ecosystem to produce 80-90% of the 40,000+ engine components at scale as India is a giant aviation market already, which will only increase. Plus India is the place of choice for western defense manufacturing at scale. Like I said newer technologies like 3D printing, AI modeling, advances in CAD/CAM software, cheaper robotics etc have considerably reduced prototype development times and infrastructure builds. So, what is true of past manufacturing is no longer true now.
India will have the quality advantage while CCPia may have a scale advantage by 2030. India can close the scale gap (easier to do this) but I doubt CCP will be able to close the quality gap (very hard to do this) by 2030.
How can India leapfrog China in reliability or quality when your one homegrown Kaveri was never reliable enough to put on an aircraft? ;)

Unless India is importing Western engines from Western industrial complexes, it will not enjoy whatever advantages of Western engines you think they have. They have the experience and eco-system not you. Those can't be transfered to India unless India buy their engines off the self.

By that time, the WS-15, WS-19 and CJ1000 will be in production. The experience from WS-10, WS-13 and WS-20 would have been institutionalized in China's industry. And the next generation of the WS series would have started.

While India would be just beginning to build around that one new engine and who knows what how far India will get with an eco-system that is brand new and untested. The Kaveri was never put into production so you simply do not have the institutions making those thousands of parts in place despite all the aspirational talk. The Chinese industry is here and now. It is mass producing turbofans for hundreds of frontline J-10s, J-11s, J-16s, J-15s and J-20s every day of the year. The lead in experience and capacity and capability will widen even more with every year.

The gap will expand until the day India can do more than one engine project at any given time. A single project won't do much to compete against a Chinese industry that can build engines every different weight and bypass classes and run a dozen projects in parallel.

That gap will widen even if we assume the best case scenario where RR or SaFran would simply give India that new engine (and not have you simply assemble parts from UK or French manufacturers like the AL-31F.) Engine companies do not give up their crown jewels so you can build things yourself and become an ex-customer and possible competitor :)

You're very optimistic but I think it is a bit naive to base your hopes solely on the good will and charity of Western engine makers. :D
 
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jai jaganath

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We can only go to war with Pakistan on the AL31FP engines as these require massive service-ability to prevent downtimes. Will affect the number of sorties and could crash more in a high stress, prolonged actual air combat. This is from 2015 but tells you how bad the Sukhoi engines are:

You can see how IAF is going to modify Sukhois using Indian technologies and might even put in a new engine. A GE414 derivative on the Sukhoi would make it a very reliable platform and Indian upgrades would make the plane as easy to fly as the LCA.
No bro
Al-31fp is bad I agree but when our forces started indigenize its spares and experience gained in building those has surely benefitted its quality
But we can't integrate and high power western engine on Su-30MKI it will lead to many changes
Super sukhoi is a program where no structural changes has to be done
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Wrong concludsion, and we are not that worried.

The data means for those nations USA,China,Japan,Germany most R&D are generated locally, which means their local companies (including the branch of golbal entrprise) are so strong, and it refelcts how weak Indian's local companies on R&D field.

Just one exmaple:

Huawei spent USD$22.4bn R&D on 2021, it's 15% of the whole India's government R&D.




Bullshit…the amount of talent that these companies create in India is a net multiplier for the Indian economy. For example, an Intel R&D engineer in Bangalore can leave, get VC capital and setup some new innovations. Indian universities and American universities are going to get increasingly co-dependent on R&D as a lot of R&D is done through university labs. Who cares if it is Indian companies or American companies in India. The most important point is an explosion of R&D talent that have worked under world class facilities. I am 100% convinced that this is a giant threat to CCPia.
For all of Huawei’s R&D budget, its business got destroyed just with a couple of restrictions from the US. Also CCPia numbers especially from companies with ties to the PLA cannot be trusted. We have heard a lot of noise from CCPia on semi-conductors as well, only to find that CCP lags behind the west several generations in these technologies. Throwing billions at R&D is not working obviously. What worked was the ability to steal blueprints and reverse engineer. But that tap has now been shut. And that is why global R&D companies are shifting to India. So, yeah it is a giant loss for the CCP. No way to spin it. Lol.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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No bro
Al-31fp is bad I agree but when our forces started indigenize its spares and experience gained in building those has surely benefitted its quality
But we can't integrate and high power western engine on Su-30MKI it will lead to many changes
Super sukhoi is a program where no structural changes has to be done
Tell that to the IAF. They would like an AMCA engine (GE F414 variant) on the Sukhoi. They are also going to put in Indian FBW and Uttam AESA radar, which need structural changes. Also integration of Brahmos NG requires structural changes. So there are going to be some structural redesigns for sure in the Indian iAnd super sukhoi program. IAF is betting that India’s private companies can do this and we already know that private Indian companies can deliver solid innovations.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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How can India leapfrog China in reliability or quality when your one homegrown Kaveri was never reliable enough to put on an aircraft? ;)

Unless India is importing Western engines from Western industrial complexes, it will not enjoy whatever advantages of Western engines you think they have. They have the experience and eco-system not you. Those can't be transfered to India unless India buy their engines off the self.

By that time, the WS-15, WS-19 and CJ1000 will be in production. The experience from WS-10, WS-13 and WS-20 would have been institutionalized in China's industry. And the next generation of the WS series would have started.

While India would be just beginning to build around that one new engine and who knows what how far India will get with an eco-system that is brand new and untested. The Kaveri was never put into production so you simply do not have the institutions making those thousands of parts in place despite all the aspirational talk. The Chinese industry is here and now. It is mass producing turbofans for hundreds of frontline J-10s, J-11s, J-16s, J-15s and J-20s every day of the year. The lead in experience and capacity and capability will widen even more with every year.

The gap will expand until the day India can do more than one engine project at any given time. A single project won't do much to compete against a Chinese industry that can build engines every different weight and bypass classes and run a dozen projects in parallel.

That gap will widen even if we assume the best case scenario where RR or SaFran would simply give India that new engine (and not have you simply assemble parts from UK or French manufacturers like the AL-31F.) Engine companies do not give up their crown jewels so you can build things yourself and become an ex-customer and possible competitor :)

You're very optimistic but I think it is a bit naive to base your hopes solely on the good will and charity of Western engine makers. :D
Because the door to stealing blueprints has been shut for the CCP, even in non-critical technology now. Despite all bluster, this route was the only reason the CCP could even design the J20 or get up the R&D value chain. Contrast this to India’s AMCA which was completely designed by India. So all future enhancements in CCPia are going to get much longer as there no more shortcuts.
The willingness of the west to quickly get Indian engine R&D up to speed depends on:
- size of the Indian engine market, which is substantial
- hostility against CCPia, which is firmly established
- tolerate india as a great world power - almost all countries are ok with this and not threatened by india’s rise
- eventually Indians will get there on engine development
- critical western defense technology is already being done in India. Days are not far off when even parts of F35B get manufactured in India. India is the west’s and possibly even japan’s manufacturing place of choice for defense technology. Israel scales almost all its defense technology in India now. That is a trust level that the CCP will never get.

Meanwhile the CCP has to do all of this by itself as you cannot shortcut anymore. Even the US and Europe developed a lot of critical technologies via collaboration. You are the one being naive to think that the CCP is some super human power that can do whatever it wants in the timeframe it wants, all alone and by itself. I call utter bullshit on this opium-induced optimism. It is India’s game to lose, really, as all strategic and technical factors have neatly lined up for India thanks to the stupid CCP wolf warrior and Covid strategies.
 

rockdog

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Bullshit…the amount of talent that these companies create in India is a net multiplier for the Indian economy. For example, an Intel R&D engineer in Bangalore can leave, get VC capital and setup some new innovations. Indian universities and American universities are going to get increasingly co-dependent on R&D as a lot of R&D is done through university labs. Who cares if it is Indian companies or American companies in India. The most important point is an explosion of R&D talent that have worked under world class facilities. I am 100% convinced that this is a giant threat to CCPia.
For all of Huawei’s R&D budget, its business got destroyed just with a couple of restrictions from the US. Also CCPia numbers especially from companies with ties to the PLA cannot be trusted. We have heard a lot of noise from CCPia on semi-conductors as well, only to find that CCP lags behind the west several generations in these technologies. Throwing billions at R&D is not working obviously. What worked was the ability to steal blueprints and reverse engineer. But that tap has now been shut. And that is why global R&D companies are shifting to India. So, yeah it is a giant loss for the CCP. No way to spin it. Lol.
No need those emotional words, cold blooded data speaks a lot. For the key tech, you need massive investment from your own enterprise. Let me repeat, India's R&D expenditure is one of the lowest in the world.


 
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jai jaganath

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Tell that to the IAF. They would like an AMCA engine (GE F414 variant) on the Sukhoi. They are also going to put in Indian FBW and Uttam AESA radar, which need structural changes. Also integration of Brahmos NG requires structural changes. So there are going to be some structural redesigns for sure in the Indian iAnd super sukhoi program. IAF is betting that India’s private companies can do this and we already know that private Indian companies can deliver solid innovations.
If we add al-41 then no issues
But integrating western engines will require major structural changes like air intakes etc
 

rockdog

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Russia delays PD-35, ambitious turbofan for CR929


Developing a modern engine, you need experience, supply chain and most important thing, big fund! I think now Russia lacks two: supply chain (part from western) and Money.

It's almost the death penalty to Russin PD-35, it's forced China to speed up the CJ2000, lucky thing is China has Plan-B for all the types. Maybe finally we won't wait Russian, the CR929 will be C929.

Today, the 1st C919 commerical version is delivered to Eastern Airlines.

 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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No need those emotional words, cold blooded data speaks a lot. For the key tech, you need massive investment from your own enterprise. Let me repeat, India's R&D expenditure is one of the lowest in the world.


The economic times article is worth less than the paper it is written on. And this data is from 2017. And we don’t know how exactly R&D investments are computed, do we? India is well known for poor collection of data, improperly defining what something means etc? For example, india is a lot more urbanized than what the Indian data shows. This is because the government policy retards have not properly defined what urbanization means in the year 2022.
Like I said before, the entire western world + Japan is very pissed off at the CCP that they may accelerate India’s engine development program for a fee of $1 billion (which is exactly what the SAFRAN deal is). I don’t believe in the R&D numbers coming out of CCP land, as fudging is rampant in state owned enterprises in CCPia.
I don’t believe the CCP would be able to overcome the generational deficiencies in all its projects by the year 2030. Doing everything by yourself by stealing blueprints from others model has ended. It is only going to be harder to catch up from now on.
There is no point discussing this now. Time (2030) will tell. But my bet is on India for product quality and CCPia for scale.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Russia delays PD-35, ambitious turbofan for CR929


Developing a modern engine, you need experience, supply chain and most important thing, big fund! I think now Russia lacks two: supply chain (part from western) and Money.

It's almost the death penalty to Russin PD-35, it's forced China to speed up the CJ2000, lucky thing is China has Plan-B for all the types. Maybe finally we won't wait Russian, the CR929 will be C929.

Today, the 1st C919 commerical version is delivered to Eastern Airlines.

CCPia has only got face saving propaganda other than scaling pre-existing technologies well. That won’t work for highly critical technology. Russians have not been able to do it. I doubt the CCP will match western tech by 2030 or even 2035. Both the US and EU are still big R&D spenders and continue to build jaw dropping, path breaking technologies - be it in quantum computing, aerospace technology, defense, IT hardware, chip fabrication tools, medical devices, medicines, fundamental sciences, materials, communication gear etc. I think you are grossly underestimating the west’s drive to remaining at the to- position in critical technology areas and overestimating CCP’s capability to do everything by itself.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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If we add al-41 then no issues
But integrating western engines will require major structural changes like air intakes etc
But we have to do it. No other option. Russian engines are not good, and they no longer have the money to improve them or the capacity to supply spare parts on time. I clearly see us switching over to western engines especially French, even if the platforms can be Russian or Indian. Russia will continue to JV with India in missile development , space technology, and nuclear subs and reactors. But that’s about it.
 

ym888

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CCPia has only got face saving propaganda other than scaling pre-existing technologies well. That won’t work for highly critical technology. Russians have not been able to do it. I doubt the CCP will match western tech by 2030 or even 2035. Both the US and EU are still big R&D spenders and continue to build jaw dropping, path breaking technologies - be it in quantum computing, aerospace technology, defense, IT hardware, chip fabrication tools, medical devices, medicines, fundamental sciences, materials, communication gear etc. I think you are grossly underestimating the west’s drive to remaining at the to- position in critical technology areas and overestimating CCP’s capability to do everything by itself.
Russia can't do high tech because its economy collapsed.

Catching up with Western technology is a huge task. In fact, China is ahead of most Western countries in both technological and military fields. But China does have a big rival ahead of it. I think it will be the same even in 2035, but the GDP ranking may change.

If you have a lot of goals, take them one at a time.
 

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