China Economy: News & Discussion

[SexyChineseLady]

All of the WS engines have sub par performance. And there is no indication that WS13 or WS15 are even flightworthy. Looks like it will take the CCP at least a decade to get there. At that time if India and France have managed to pull off the 125kN engine, then yeah india will have an upper hand with a core tech based on the latest western platforms. I am pretty sure SAFRAN would not have offered a collab if they thought that India cannot make it happen. Let’s revisit in 2030 and 2035 and see whose strategy won out.

You think you can leap ahead of a Chinese industry that can mass produce a full range of light, medium and heavy turbofans in both low and high bypass with just one medium engine?

But I like your enthusiasm and naivete! So cool, let us check in on this every few years or so

The direct comparison is the WS-19 and this new Indian engine. The WS-15 will come first for the J-20 and the WS-13 for the J-35 (and FC-31 and J-31.) But I won't claim victory until the WS-19 flies on the J-35

We can update here or the Chinese engines thread! Better luck with this new engine than the Kaveri

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Manufacturing technologies have undergone a sea change. India’s aerospace ecosystem has come a real long way thanks to LCA development and opening up aerospace manufacturing to foreign investors, which has produced hundreds of new aerospace talent. Plus Indian companies are now producing a lot of new materials with defense applications in-house.
One thing India needs to do right away is to hire the world’s top engineers of Indian origin, especially in metallurgy, to return home and work on critical R&D projects. As india gets richer, this is very likely to happen. So, the current environment is very different from the 1980s.
The first step is getting the colab agreement signed with France.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) is the umbrella group for all the engine building firms in AVIC (Aviation Industry Group of China.)

It has a 100K workforce

There are at least a dozen entities underneath it. This is a major industry in China.

1. AECC Xi'an Aero-Engine LTD. (WS-9, WS-15, WS-20)
2. Shenyang Liming Aero-Engine Group Corporation Ltd (WS-10)
3. Shenyang Aeroengine Research Institute
4. Skyrizon Chongxing
5. Beijing Skyrizon
6. Guizhou Liyang International Manufacturing Co,.Ltd (WS-13)
7. AECC South Industry Co.,Ltd.
8. AECC Chengdu Engine（Group）Corporation
9. AECC Harbin Dong'an Engine Co,.Ltd
10. Changzhou Lanxiang Machinery Corporation
11. Nanjing Light Aero-power Corporation
12. Commercial Aircraft Engine Co,.Ltd
13. ACAE Shanghai (CJ1000, CJ2000, CJ500)

 

[Varzone]

Manufacturing technologies have undergone a sea change. India’s aerospace ecosystem has come a real long way thanks to LCA development and opening up aerospace manufacturing to foreign investors, which has produced hundreds of new aerospace talent. Plus Indian companies are now producing a lot of new materials with defense applications in-house.
One thing India needs to do right away is to hire the world’s top engineers of Indian origin, especially in metallurgy, to return home and work on critical R&D projects. As india gets richer, this is very likely to happen. So, the current environment is very different from the 1980s.
The first step is getting the colab agreement signed with France.

We should ask the space startups to develop their own core tech for engines. We need innovation funded by private money. Govt money gets dissolved in years extended long projects with no definitive answer. We don't have any time, we're already way behind the curve.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Manufacturing technologies have undergone a sea change. India’s aerospace ecosystem has come a real long way thanks to LCA development and opening up aerospace manufacturing to foreign investors, which has produced hundreds of new aerospace talent. Plus Indian companies are now producing a lot of new materials with defense applications in-house.
One thing India needs to do right away is to hire the world’s top engineers of Indian origin, especially in metallurgy, to return home and work on critical R&D projects. As india gets richer, this is very likely to happen. So, the current environment is very different from the 1980s.
The first step is getting the colab agreement signed with France.

There is a lot of aspirational happy talk here! Especially on the hope that some foreign company will give you the tech to a modern turbofan

But what is actual state of your industry? From what I read, with the Kaveri never being put into an assembly line, India doesn't has ANY experience productionizing turbofans beyond assembling the AL-31F (which you claim is a subpar engine) for the SU-30MKI. And once the MKI contract is over, India are not allowed to even do that.

In this WS-19 vs Indian aspirational 110kN engine (is there a name yet?) contest, you are going up against against an established Chinese industry with a 100,000 workforce that is already producing frontline military turbofans in the hundreds today (and thousands of military turbojets in the past.)

This is typical of an India versus China in overall economics. India's hopes and spirations versus China's actual industries.

Hopefully, this prototype of the J-35 is flying on just WS-13s but some say they are already on the WS-19

In that case, this contest might be over before it began. I hope it is just the WS-13E though

WS-19 design team with engine in background:

J-35 prototype (classic green primer for sea aircraft):

 

[Varzone]

IMO this thinking itself is flawed that we'll only make a perfect engine and then only start manufacturing and using them.
Have to start with subpar and make iterations and improvements with time.
We'll have workforce experience in manufacturing till the time we make 'perfect' engine to use in Tejas etc

 

[jai jaganath]

There is a lot of aspirational happy talk here! Especially on the hope that some foreign company will give you the tech to a modern turbofan

But what is actual state of your industry? From what I read, with the Kaveri never being put into an assembly line, India doesn't has ANY experience productionizing turbofans beyond assembling the AL-31F (which you claim is a subpar engine) for the SU-30MKI. And once the MKI contract is over, India are not allowed to even do that.

In this WS-19 vs Indian aspirational 110kN engine (is there a name yet?) contest, you are going up against against an established Chinese industry with a 100,000 workforce that is already producing frontline military turbofans in the hundreds today (and thousands of military turbojets in the past.)

This is typical of an India versus China in overall economics. India's hopes and spirations versus China's actual industries.

Hopefully, this prototype of the J-35 is flying on just WS-13s but some say they are already on the WS-19

In that case, this contest might be over before it began. I hope it is just the WS-13E though

WS-19 design team with engine in background:
View attachment 185183

J-35 prototype (classic green primer for sea aircraft):
View attachment 185184

View attachment 185185
View attachment 185186

One thing I want to clear that
The mki contract may get over but assembly of al-31fp will never
U know when the state of mki were bad I mean pre 2015 we had made 6 engines for fighter
But now due to more indigenous content and better Russian support it has been solved
U might speak about spares but to be clear many spares are manufactured by us but again critical spares could have been a issue but in future it won't as in 2021 hal has released eoi for manufacturing critical spares of al-31fp
So in future this issue will also get solved
Problem is govt support and iaf competency
Making al-31fp with a considerable amount of indigenous content has given a good experience and confidence
I just can't recall but either hal or gtre proposed project Ganga for manufacturing al-31fp without Russian help
But was squared by givt
Who knows if situation worsens then govt might lift the file

 

[SexyChineseLady]

IMO this thinking itself is flawed that we'll only make a perfect engine and then only start manufacturing and using them.
Have to start with subpar and make iterations and improvements with time.
We'll have workforce experience in manufacturing till the time we make 'perfect' engine to use in Tejas etc

Nobody makes a perfect product on paper. And even if you can build a perfect product in the lab you still need to replicate that a thousand times for it to be useful and you won't know you can until you actually mass produce the thing. You need to build it and then fix through iterations.

That is the reason why P&W, GE, SaFran and RR are ahead of everyone else. The theory of jet powered flight is known to everyone. What they have is decades of experience in actually mass producing engines. The faster you get to mass producing engines, the faster you too can start on the same process.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

One thing I want to clear that
The mki contract may get over but assembly of al-31fp will never
U know when the state of mki were bad I mean pre 2015 we had made 6 engines for fighter
But now due to more indigenous content and better Russian support it has been solved
U might speak about spares but to be clear many spares are manufactured by us but again critical spares could have been a issue but in future it won't as in 2021 hal has released eoi for manufacturing critical spares of al-31fp
So in future this issue will also get solved
Problem is govt support and iaf competency
Making al-31fp with a considerable amount of indigenous content has given a good experience and confidence
I just can't recall but either hal or gtre proposed project Ganga for manufacturing al-31fp without Russian help
But was squared by givt
Who knows if situation worsens then govt might lift the file

Okay that is an interesting and reasonable assumption. You need to continue assembling the AL-31F to maintain the SU-30MKI fleet.

Undoubtedly good experience. Interesting to see if India can build it completely indigenous and use it for an Indian aircraft. But that workforce at HAL is really the only ones with experience in a turbofan assembly line so best to leverage and expand on it.

 

[jai jaganath]

Okay that is an interesting and reasonable assumption. You need to continue assembling the AL-31F to maintain the SU-30MKI fleet.

Undoubtedly good experience. Interesting to see if India can build it completely indigenous and use it for an Indian aircraft. But that workforce at HAL is really the only ones with experience in a turbofan assembly line so best to leverage and expand on it.

Sad news is govt didn't approve Ganga so its basically gone case
Better to be called non existent

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Sad news is govt didn't approve Ganga so its basically gone case
Better to be called non existent

That's horrible! Well, the AL-31F assembly and overhaul process will provide India with some experience in the production line.

Where is/was India on the turbojets needed in the MiG-21 and -23? I read that India assembled those jets and their engine before the MKI.

The Chinese engine industry cut its teeth building WP-6 and -7 for the J-6 and J-7 before going into turbofans with the WS-6 and WS-8 (both of which were abandoned when China thought it would get engine tech from the West during the honeymoon period from the 1970s to 1989 -- sounds familiar? lol)

Building those thousands upon thousands of turbojets (they don't last and fighters were designed to replace engines quickly) created the first production lines for the Chinese engine industry.

You can order a WP-13 or Kunlun series turbojet from the Chinese Chamber of Commerce

wp-13 turbine engine

good quality

www.cccme.cn

WP-13 variants still power Mach 2 legacy fighters like the J-7G and J-8II remaining in service.

 

[jai jaganath]

That's horrible! Well, the AL-31F assembly and overhaul process will provide India with some experience in the production line.

Where is/was India on the turbojets needed in the MiG-21 and -23? I read that India assembled those jets and their engine before the MKI.

The Chinese engine industry cut its teeth building WP-6 and -7 for the J-6 and J-7 before going into turbofans with the WS-6 and WS-8 (both of which were abandoned when China thought it would get engine tech from the West during the honeymoon period from the 1970s to 1989 -- sounds familiar? lol)

Building those thousands upon thousands of turbojets (they don't last and fighters were designed to replace engines quickly) created the first production lines for the Chinese engine industry.

You can order a WP-13 or Kunlun series turbojet from the Chinese Chamber of Commerce

wp-13 turbine engine

good quality

www.cccme.cn

WP-13 variants still power Mach 2 legacy fighters like the J-7G and J-8II remaining in service.

I think that our history of license manufacturing of engine is not bad
Like we have license manufactured adour engines of jaguars rd-33 engines of mig-29 and in rd-33 indegenisation is much higher atleast of al31 level I mean scb of rd-33 was replaced with Indian and moreover we can manufacture rd-33 as much as we want
Back to topic
Turbomeca engines for helis
Infact Shakti is one of the jv with snecma
Garrett tpe331
R-25(mig-21)
R-29(mig-27)
These were license made in India that too in hundreds
We lack no experience but what we lack is competency and intent of govt and bureaucrats

 

[Varzone]

 

[SexyChineseLady]

I think that our history of license manufacturing of engine is not bad
Like we have license manufactured adour engines of jaguars rd-33 engines of mig-29 and in rd-33 indegenisation is much higher atleast of al31 level I mean scb of rd-33 was replaced with Indian and moreover we can manufacture rd-33 as much as we want
Back to topic
Turbomeca engines for helis
Infact Shakti is one of the jv with snecma
Garrett tpe331
R-25(mig-21)
R-29(mig-27)
These were license made in India that too in hundreds
We lack no experience but what we lack is competency and intent of govt and bureaucrats

The Sino-Soviet split meant that China never got license for R-25 or -29 but did get those for R-9 and R-11.

The split meant no components from the USSR even with the licenses so over time the R-9 and R-11 China evolved into the WP-6 and -7 that powered J-6 and J-7 but no longer worked on the MiG-19 and -21.

China can't get imports at the time so it was either build their own or have no jet engines. So the choice was easier with the PRC government.

The Commies did make some pretty unpopular choices once they had choices in the '70s and '80s. They clobbered the WS-6 even though it had reach 122 kN with reheat in tests (back in 1981!) and then cancelled the Y-10/WS-8 combination.

They did get TOT of Spey in a RR jv which became the WS-9 when all parts were made in China but some said continuing the WS-6 would have served the industry better.

The WS-8 and Y-10 was and is a sore point. The WS-8 was test flown and had passed a 1000 hour endurance test. It actually passed an aurworthiness certification. But with the lure of Western partnership especially with MD, it and the Y-10 were cancelled.

 

[KurtisBrian]

So, who is to blamed? India government? These taoists? Or just like you, always blame someone else.
20 years ago, every Indian in this forum was laughing at Chinese huge investment in infrastructure, 15 years later, every member here was cheering that India finally started to invest in her infrastructure.

20 years ago, every Indian claimed that India was going to be a knowledge economy by skip manufacturing, 15 years later, everyone screamed why India lags behind in manufacturing.

Looks everyone with Indian flag was a Taoist at some point of time.





Which part of "We have been making profit for decades" you don't understand?

I will trust words. Words say they are the goats. shades of black, white and grey...no hue thus no humanity. Shades of grey worn by those slavers of the US south, Nazi soldiers, Catholics, Israelis, Muslims and others.

Profit? US companies keep saying China is profitable. Yet the USA is hollowed out and the nation goes to crap. Forgive me if I do not trust the Anglo-Saxon way of accounting for profit.
Vlad Tepes had the Anglo-Saxons show up in his lands and use credit fraud to loot his peasants. Anglo-Saxons were making a profit for themselves there too. Profit at the expense of looting the nation and people.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

There is a lot of aspirational happy talk here! Especially on the hope that some foreign company will give you the tech to a modern turbofan

But what is actual state of your industry? From what I read, with the Kaveri never being put into an assembly line, India doesn't has ANY experience productionizing turbofans beyond assembling the AL-31F (which you claim is a subpar engine) for the SU-30MKI. And once the MKI contract is over, India are not allowed to even do that.

In this WS-19 vs Indian aspirational 110kN engine (is there a name yet?) contest, you are going up against against an established Chinese industry with a 100,000 workforce that is already producing frontline military turbofans in the hundreds today (and thousands of military turbojets in the past.)

This is typical of an India versus China in overall economics. India's hopes and spirations versus China's actual industries.

Hopefully, this prototype of the J-35 is flying on just WS-13s but some say they are already on the WS-19

In that case, this contest might be over before it began. I hope it is just the WS-13E though

WS-19 design team with engine in background:
View attachment 185183

J-35 prototype (classic green primer for sea aircraft):
View attachment 185184

View attachment 185185
View attachment 185186

Structural reforms are what opens up manufacturing and that is what India is doing. For example, Apple will produce 25% of all its phones in India by 2025. Export of electronics and manufacturing goods have doubled and tripled. Automoblie design and manufacturing has grown exponentially. When there is scale, Indian companies will step in and produce locally. In any case, engine development is not a priority for India now. Rapid industrialization, leaps in manufacturing exports and urban infrastructure should be the focus. If the goals India has set get achieved like $1 trillion in exports by 2030, then we know for sure that the manufacturing ecosystem would have jumped several folds. If we don’t do that and lose exports to Vietnam, then yeah we can write off India’s aspirations, as India will grow old before it got rich enough to do sustained development of advanced technologies. If that happens, nobody can help India no matter how much we shout. Right now, all indicators are advancing in the correct direction at the required pace.
‘Like I said before, a lack of budget and top rated talent are the 2 things holding India back. India must find a way to grow at 10%+ every year. The government has come up with new policies for that. Indian planners are totally aware of global competition but one big advantage India has is the size of the domestic market, which can be used to arm twist manufacturers to make in India. The Indian government has a solid team of experts to identify long range issues and develop plans for them. The pace of execution has been an issue. And the government is now using technology to solve that. So new things are happening in a structural and not an incremental way. And that makes a lot of difference.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Structural reforms are what opens up manufacturing and that is what India is doing. For example, Apple will produce 25% of all its phones in India by 2025. Export of electronics and manufacturing goods have doubled and tripled. Automoblie design and manufacturing has grown exponentially. When there is scale, Indian companies will step in and produce locally. In any case, engine development is not a priority for India now. Rapid industrialization, leaps in manufacturing exports and urban infrastructure should be the focus. If the goals India has set get achieved like $1 trillion in exports by 2030, then we know for sure that the manufacturing ecosystem would have jumped several folds. If we don’t do that and lose exports to Vietnam, then yeah we can write off India’s aspirations, as India will grow old before it got rich enough to do sustained development of advanced technologies. If that happens, nobody can help India no matter how much we shout. Right now, all indicators are advancing in the correct direction at the required pace.
‘Like I said before, a lack of budget and top rated talent are the 2 things holding India back. India must find a way to grow at 10%+ every year. The government has come up with new policies for that. Indian planners are totally aware of global competition but one big advantage India has is the size of the domestic market, which can be used to arm twist manufacturers to make in India. The Indian government has a solid team of experts to identify long range issues and develop plans for them. The pace of execution has been an issue. And the government is now using technology to solve that. So new things are happening in a structural and not an incremental way. And that makes a lot of difference.

Also private equity in manufacturing companies is growing in double digits in everything from EV manufacturing to high end materials. China plus 1 supply chain strategy and India’s new manufacturing tax reduction to 15% and the PLI scheme are structural game changers. In several categories in automobiles, pharma etc India is already a leading manufacturer or in the top 5. The same scale will be achieved in electrical and electronics sectors. Plus India has a huge skilled workforce that no other country can match. Logistics cost are falling every day and investments are being out in to get to the same level as in developed nations. All this means, manufacturing will explode in India as no other country can offer such scale and infrastructure besides China. There’s no doubt about that. This is why private equity and VC in manufacturing is growing in double digits. So I am almost certain that by 2030, India will be a top 3 manufacturer in almost every sector.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

This is the pulse assembly line at Shaanxi Aircraft Corp which make the ubiquious Y-9 4-engined turboprop that comes in many variants from basic transport to EW to ASW to AWACS -- this is Chinese mass production :

 

[rockdog]

Also private equity in manufacturing companies is growing in double digits in everything from EV manufacturing to high end materials. China plus 1 supply chain strategy and India’s new manufacturing tax reduction to 15% and the PLI scheme are structural game changers. In several categories in automobiles, pharma etc India is already a leading manufacturer or in the top 5. The same scale will be achieved in electrical and electronics sectors. Plus India has a huge skilled workforce that no other country can match. Logistics cost are falling every day and investments are being out in to get to the same level as in developed nations. All this means, manufacturing will explode in India as no other country can offer such scale and infrastructure besides China. There’s no doubt about that. This is why private equity and VC in manufacturing is growing in double digits. So I am almost certain that by 2030, India will be a top 3 manufacturer in almost every sector.

To be frank, i am quite cautious about such kind of optimism. Last time i was fooled by such kind of "India is rising" saga during 2004-2006.

Both Indian and western meida were bluffing "India 2.0", i remeber on the Times or Economist cover page, the Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were riding in a same motocycle and accerating...

But if from today and look back, the 2004-2019 was the key duration the China real beat India on every aspect from GDP size to most micro industries ...

Look at those Chinese new weapons and new technologies, they all need 10-20 yrs of lead time, which means when Western and India were bluffing the "India 2.0", the China were already did the hardest parts silently. I really don't know what India did then. It can be called India's lost 15 years...

Getting 40% of Apple assembly line is not that important comparing structural reform, but if Modi even couldn't make his new Farm & Farmer law alive...

 

[rockdog]

This is important move between Russia and China. I think it means the Russia will deeply integrate with Chinese industry and supply chains. Maybe Russia and China will quite like Canada and USA.