China Economy: News & Discussion

SexyChineseLady

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China's trade surplus this year is headed towards $1TRILLION, a number never seen before by China or any other trading nation on earth.

But it is a bad thing for China according to Western analysts!

 

SexyChineseLady

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The tech bans by the US on China had happened once before -- to US ally Japan.


Japanese scientist Hiroo Kinoshita, who performed the first EUV experiment in the mid-1980s, says Beijing has an equal right to pursue modern technology.

“Of course, I could not understand that decision. Science has no border,” he says when asked about the US blocking ASML sales to China.

The US-China economic showdown stems from the race to dominate the 5G market where Chinese firm Huawei has taken the lead, he tells TRT World.


Kinoshita has had firsthand experience of what happens when a political standoff comes in the way of technological development.

“When Japan became the leader in semiconductors, especially in the memory chip segment, Japan-US semiconductor friction broke out.


“NTT Laboratories (the Japanese version of Bell Labs) where I was working, had to stop semiconductor development. After that, Japanese semiconductor development declined,” he says.

“Therefore, I believe that scientific and technological competition should be free (of political roadblocks).”
 

rockdog

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Leap to the second place in the world, and China's automobile export volume surpasses Germany!

As the largest manufacturing industry, automobile, if China wins, the proportion of manufacturing industry in the world will rise to more than 35%. Japan and Germany will be very uncomfortable with the ebb and flow.

China Securities News article: China's automobile export volume has ranked the second in the world!
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in August 2022, China's automobile export volume reached 308000, with a year-on-year growth of 65%, which is the first time in history that it exceeded 300000 vehicles.

From the overall situation in the first eight months of this year, China's automobile export volume has surpassed that of Germany, only second to that of Japan. Among them, the export volume of new energy vehicles from January to August increased by more than 90% year on year, contributing an important increase.

The developed countries are becoming the main markets for China's automobile exports. According to the customs data compiled by the China Automobile Association, from January to August 2022, the top ten countries in China's automobile export volume are the United States, Mexico, Japan, Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, Germany, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia.

How fast is China's automobile export growing? Why can we successfully open up the situation in overseas markets?

The "acceleration" of China's automobile export with a tenfold growth in the past two decades
Back in 2002, 20 years ago, there was still a huge gap between China's automobile export industry and Germany, Japan and other countries.

According to the data of the International Automobile Manufacturers Association (OICA), the world automobile export volume in 2002 was 22.1 million, of which Germany and Japan both exported more than one million vehicles. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2002, China's total vehicle export volume was only 43100. If the snow walking motor vehicles, golf carts and other manned motor vehicles are deducted, China's automobile exports will be only 22000.

However, in the next 20 years, China's automobile export industry achieved "overtaking at curves". According to the data of Just Auto, an authoritative British media, in 2021, the number of Chinese automobile exports will exceed 2 million for the first time, reaching a total of 2015000, second only to Japan (3.82 million) and Germany (2.3 million), becoming the world's third largest automobile exporter, and nearly 25% more than South Korea (1.52 million).

By 2022, China's automobile export industry will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from January to August this year, China exported 1.91 million cars, with a year-on-year growth of 47.5%. This figure is close to the export volume of the whole year last year, surpassing the export volume of German cars and second only to Japan.

Among them, new energy vehicles have become a well deserved growth engine. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to August 2022, China's new energy vehicle exports totaled 340000 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 97.4%.

At the 4th Global New Energy and Smart Vehicle Supply Chain Innovation Conference, Wang Jinzhao, Minister of the Industrial Economy Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in 2021, China's new energy vehicle exports will account for 1/3 of the world's total, making it the world's largest new energy vehicle exporter.

With the rapid development of China's new energy automobile industry, the automobile export industry is expected to continue to grow and run out of "acceleration".

Why can automobile export achieve "flying against the wind"?

In recent years, the automotive industry has experienced a serious shortage of chips. In addition, since the second half of 2021, the prices of major automotive raw materials, such as aluminum, have risen sharply, putting pressure on many automotive enterprises.

However, in this context, the domestic automobile export industry has achieved a counter trend growth. According to the data of China Automobile Association, China's automobile export volume will reach 2015000 in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 101.1%, ending the situation that the automobile export volume hovered around 1 million in the previous years. Since this year, the number of automobile exports has maintained a rapid growth.

Why can China's automobile export industry "fly against the wind"?

According to a research report of Pacific Securities, the domestic automobile industry chain is relatively complete and has differentiated competitive advantages. In the context of the pressure on global automobile enterprises caused by the shortage of chip supply, the excellent performance of China's automobile export demonstrates the advantages of a complete domestic industrial chain. With the advancement of domestic brands in the field of new energy and intelligence, the further consolidation of product strength and brand image will be conducive to the sale of cars made in China to more countries and regions.

At the same time, some policies also provide strong support for automobile export. On September 5, at the regular briefing on the policies of the State Council held by the Information Office of the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce said that it would continue to support new energy vehicle enterprises to accelerate the construction of overseas marketing and after-sales service networks and increase brand promotion. Overseas institutions of qualified Chinese funded banks are encouraged to provide overseas consumer financial products. We will explore ways to expand export transport channels and transport new energy vehicles through China Europe regular trains.

Of course, a good automobile export situation can not be separated from the efforts of the enterprises themselves.
 

Shuturmurg

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China's trade surplus this year is headed towards $1TRILLION, a number never seen before by China or any other trading nation on earth.

But it is a bad thing for China according to Western analysts!

Its a bad thing according to Xi himself.
.

This means China is becoming even less of consuming nation and will depend on exports for supporting its industries, thus making it more vulnerable geopolitical situation, specially if global seas become unsafe. US is one of the most insulated nations on earth as it has one of the lowest trade to gdp ratio.
 

rockdog

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Its a bad thing according to Xi himself.
.

This means China is becoming even less of consuming nation and will depend on exports for supporting its industries, thus making it more vulnerable geopolitical situation, specially if global seas become unsafe. US is one of the most insulated nations on earth as it has one of the lowest trade to gdp ratio.

China is already the biggest or 2nd biggest comsuming market in the world. If you only count some key areas like food, automobile, mobile phone, tv, luxury ... they are times than USA volumn.

The term dual circulation is more concerning on economic security and how to manage the prosperity, nobody refuse to earn money from oversea, it created tens of millions of jobs inside China.
 

Shuturmurg

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China is already the biggest or 2nd biggest comsuming market in the world. If you only count some key areas like food, automobile, mobile phone, tv, luxury ... they are times than USA volumn.

The term dual circulation is more concerning on economic security and how to manage the prosperity, nobody refuse to earn money from oversea, it created tens of millions of jobs inside China.
China's consumption is only 39% of GDP. India is 55-60%, USA is over 85%. US is by far the largest consumer market on earth, and does very little trade as percent of GDP outside NAFTA. Security of global sea based trade routes is therefore much bigger concern for China than USA, and China's biggest rival is the guarantor of security for naval trade routes. This is something Chinese govt. is really concerned about.
 

SexyChineseLady

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China's consumption is only 39% of GDP. India is 55-60%, USA is over 85%. US is by far the largest consumer market on earth, and does very little trade as percent of GDP outside NAFTA. Security of global sea based trade routes is therefore much bigger concern for China than USA, and China's biggest rival is the guarantor of security for naval trade routes. This is something Chinese govt. is really concerned about.

China consumes far more than the US in every category of consumer goods:

2CE52B0D-2DD7-4327-A4F3-1FC9BEAF4B92.png


China consumes many many many more times than India in everything from KFC fried chicken and Starbucks coffee to tvs to refrigerators to cars to $2000 LV handbags despite the populations being the same size.

If the 39% consumption rate is true then that can only mean that the real economy of China is far bigger because China already consumes far more of everything.
 

SexyChineseLady

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BTW, China being the top consumer market in the world is not new. China began passing the US in every category beginning a decade ago:
DDAE49D5-7EE5-4380-8682-BB089F256DE4.jpeg


One reason why China can export so much is because China's companies already have economy of scale selling inside China.
 

rockdog

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China consumes far more than the US in every category of consumer goods:

View attachment 175412

China consumes many many many more times than India in everything from KFC fried chicken and Starbucks coffee to tvs to refrigerators to cars to $2000 LV handbags despite the populations being the same size.
How many Starbucks stores are there in Shanghai?

Now, Starbucks has already opened 5,100 stores in 200 cities in mainland China, employing nearly 60,000 partners. This enables us to achieve our promise everyday through our stores. World Class Coffee

 

SexyChineseLady

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How many Starbucks stores are there in Shanghai?

Now, Starbucks has already opened 5,100 stores in 200 cities in mainland China, employing nearly 60,000 partners. This enables us to achieve our promise everyday through our stores. World Class Coffee


Shanghai has one of the world's largest Starbucks:
 

Varzone

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Such a pity, we're so far behind China. No point comparing now.
We'll revisit in 2030.
 

SexyChineseLady

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This idea that China doesn't consume enough is pretty weird when it is the number one consumer market for practically EVERYTHING.

People think otherwise only because of the trade volume. When the trade surplus is $1T they think all China do is export.

China passed the US in PPP GDP in 2013. Its consumption in not only consumer goods like cars and computers but also energy and raw material had gone way passed the US.

It is not even close:
634BDC92-D3E0-4258-B2FD-1EF33E345FAD.jpeg
 

Varzone

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China's consumption is only 39% of GDP. India is 55-60%, USA is over 85%. US is by far the largest consumer market on earth, and does very little trade as percent of GDP outside NAFTA. Security of global sea based trade routes is therefore much bigger concern for China than USA, and China's biggest rival is the guarantor of security for naval trade routes. This is something Chinese govt. is really concerned about.
Bro, let's be fair and objective.
Indians % consumption is higher due to literally surviving on necessary items only. Isn't it true?
 

SexyChineseLady

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What that percent means is in china wages are suppressed artificially.
Yet they have enough disposable income to buy more cars, PCs, air conditioners, luxury handbags, etc. than anyone else? And on top of that they consume more electricity than the entire Western world combined running that stuff :)

Unlikely wages are depressed much if they are consuming that much goods and energy. But if you are right then can the world support the amount of stuff China will buy if its wages weren't depressed? China absorbs most of the world's pork, corn, soy, etc. already.
 

SexyChineseLady

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China's consumption is really massive and it is not just one or two things but across the entire spectrum. It is crazy why anyone should think that China is not consuming enough.

China is the number 1 import market for ordinary stuff like beef:
06943AA1-8B5B-421E-B180-DE455AB970CC.jpeg



But it is also the number one market for an exotic fruit like durian!

With historically little or no commercial durian production and such enormous demand, China has grown into the world’s largest market for imported durians, with 822,000 metric tons worth $4.21 billion imported in 2021.
 

Shuturmurg

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Yet they have enough disposable income to buy more cars, PCs, air conditioners, luxury handbags, etc. than anyone else? And on top of that they consume more electricity than the entire Western world combined running that stuff :)

Unlikely wages are depressed much if they are consuming that much goods and energy. But if you are right then can the world support the amount of stuff China will buy if its wages weren't depressed? China absorbs most of the world's pork, corn, soy, etc. already.
It's because currently too much money is kept by local governments and spent on infra. China is reaching a point of infrastructure saturation, hence the talk of rebalancing.

.
 

rockdog

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In September, China exported 301000 cars, up 73.9% year on year. This is also the second time since August this year that China's automobile export has exceeded 300000 vehicles in a single month.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") released the above data on October 11.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first eight months of this year, China's automobile exports reached 1.91 million, surpassing Germany and second only to Japan.

In addition to the substantial increase in the number of exports, the "quality" of China's automobile exports has also improved significantly. According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, in 2018, the average price of China's automobile exports was US $12900, and by August 2022, it had reached US $18900.

In the first eight months of this year, the top ten countries in China's auto exports were the United States, Mexico, Japan, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia - it is not difficult to find that among the above countries, developed countries accounted for seven seats.
 

SexyChineseLady

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In September, China exported 301000 cars, up 73.9% year on year. This is also the second time since August this year that China's automobile export has exceeded 300000 vehicles in a single month.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") released the above data on October 11.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first eight months of this year, China's automobile exports reached 1.91 million, surpassing Germany and second only to Japan.

In addition to the substantial increase in the number of exports, the "quality" of China's automobile exports has also improved significantly. According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, in 2018, the average price of China's automobile exports was US $12900, and by August 2022, it had reached US $18900.

In the first eight months of this year, the top ten countries in China's auto exports were the United States, Mexico, Japan, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia - it is not difficult to find that among the above countries, developed countries accounted for seven seats.
This was decades in the making. The eco system put in place began with car parts and tires.

Interesting history, the US placed prohibitive tariffs on Chinese tires beginning in 2009 under Obama, it didn't stop China from being the world's largest exporter of tires. This happened because China itself is the biggest market. Chinese firms have economy of scale at home.

Most of the global auto industry including Germany and Japan (and India) also use Chinese components just like the electronic industry.
 

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