China Economy: News & Discussion

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Actually there are more evidence that China fudges LOWER to keep Developing Country status in the WTO and other organizations (and also to keep the US from clobbering them early as a threat to its economic dominance.)

You can see this in the car market and also the steel and cement markets.

How likely is it that China which consumes 60% more cars per year than the US is actually the number two economy instead of number one? Or a country who consumes more steel than the rest of the world COMBINED is not the largest economy in the world?

Or used more cement in three years than the US had for the entire 20th Century is just the number two economy?!?

These numbers are vouched by foreign firms in cars since GM, VW, Mercedes, Tesla, etc. dominate a huge chunk of the Chinese market. (Check out Tata, it made more money in China through Jaguar/LandRover than all the models it could sell in India!)

The steel figures come from iron ore exported by Australia, China accounts for around 80 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports. 80 percent!!!

How likely is an economy consuming that much more than the US in the basic materials of industrialized economies just number two?

Far more likely that China fudges low not high. There is no gain from fudging high. There is a lot to gain from fudging low.
Fudge high to launder money and also to keep the banks like bank of China solvent. It is called over invoicing and running a ponzi scheme to payback loans. The other thing is to fool investors
see the video I linked to. It is very clear how the CCP operates. 40-45% of Chinese bank loans are bad loans - most likely massive money laundering. The great firewall Of China is to prevent the peasants of China from discovering the truth and revolting on the streets to get rid of CCP. The video I attached explains it all very well from someone who knew CCP very closely. He was a personal friend of Hu Jintao even. Now the CCP is after him for revealing state secrets.Everything is very clear from that video.The CCP is a massive mafia organization and that’s all there is to it. A revolution is near. The days are not far off when Chinese people will realize the truth and hang each and everyone of the politburo from a lamppost in Beijing.
 

HariPrasad-1

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You asshole...did you rebut the SCMP article above? Get the fuck out of this forum, nasty slimy slit-eyed piece of shit. No wonder the Americans came up with a Chinese Exclusion Act as early as 1901. They knew the smelly Chinkies were A grade fraudsters. They continue to be so.

MODS - can we have a modern Chinese Exclusion Act for this forum that kills genocidal regime worshipping vermins like rockdog once and for all?

View attachment 101186

View attachment 101187
Ge is our guest on this forum. Don't abuse him. Say whatever you want without abuse.
 

rockdog

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So can we consider 2500 death? considering China's record of declaring casualties in incidents like Galwan and wuhan?
5.jpg



The warning was issued by government hours early, so there is lead time for people to evacuate, but still massive casualties, the cleaning work is just started, there are lots of missings, so the death will be rise for sure.

People like to exaggerate others suffering right?

07.jpg


8.jpg
 

Kumata

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View attachment 101355


The warning was issued by government hours early, so there is lead time for people to evacuate, but still massive casualties, the cleaning work is just started, there are lots of missings, so the death will be rise for sure.

People like to exaggerate others suffering right?

View attachment 101356

View attachment 101357
प्रिय काले पत्थर ,

अंग्रेज़ी एक हर जगह समझने और लिखने वाली भाषा है। जब आप भारतीय फोरम पे अपना प्रोपोगंडा फैला रहे हो तो , कृपया अंग्रेज़ी का प्रयोग करें अन्यथा अपनी आप की माता चोद दी जाएगी और मुझे पता है कि चीनी औरतों से बड़े घंटे झेले नहीं जाते है।

आप की दिन शुभ हो।
 

HariPrasad-1

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more on Chinese faking things…believe it…at least 30% of their economy is fake, mafia type operation
What about those twits which said that over chinese 100 soldiers died in Galwan. So far as covid dwath is concern, we have world's most transperent system. Every positive case, hospitalization and deat is updated at every second online unlke China where over 21 million mobiles went inactive and yet only 4k deTh was declared.
 

INDIAFIRST

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Chinese people your CCP is leading you all towards black hole by showing you all the brightness of light caused due to BH...you all have already slowed the motion of planet earth .,what more your CCP wants .., destruction of Earth
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars I am flummoxed by various analyses suggesting somehow the Wuhan Virus is a big positive to the Chinese economy. I have written two detailed blogs of how China's debt burden is approaching the levels that had once derailed Japan's perceived take over of the world. Will not repeat the same data here, please check out my blog: https://ecopoliticalindia.blogspot.com for the same. I can demonstrated why the "Chinese stocks havent crashed" is a big hoax.

And Now lets look at this seriously. The below is the structure of China's GDP over the last 10 years: I have highlighted the change in the 3 main levers of China's economy: Personal consumption PFCE Fixed capital formation GFCF Exports.

ETvhmz9XYAIyLYo.png


Note that China's export miracle never really came as ONLY 2.4% of china's incremental GDP between 2010-2019 came from increase in net exports. You can also see that exports as % of GDP have fallen from 27% to 17% over the same period. This is not a good sign given that China has created an entire infrastructure based on selling goods to foreigners. Post Chinese Virus, the world will become more exclusive. Countries that are running fiscal deficits of 10% are going to want to keep jobs INSIDE their country rather than shop for "china price".

Now The Chinese government has 2 levers to play with. First is GFCF, which is China building roads and factories and airports etc indiscriminately to either show a growth in GDP or to keep some people employed, or both. GFCF accounted for over 40% of incremental Chinese GDP since 2010-2019. Since a lot of the GFCF was export focused, and financed by debt (CHina's share of ALL global debt - govt, personal, corporate is over US$40trillion or >15%), how much more can China continue. to build. Already I can see a tiredness in GFCF spending which has come down from 48% of GDP to 44%. Now if GFCF/ GDP comes down to say 37.7% (average of the 1990s decade), the difference will be over $800bn USD annually which will need to be compensated by PFCE, final lever. Now PFCE depends on people spending. Will the Chinese people spend? Especially after the shock of the Chinese Virus?! China has had the lowest PFCE/GDP ratio vs economies like India and USA. The Chinese dont spend despite getting a very low interest on their savings.

Do you expect a older demographic to spend in this case? I dont think so. But lets argue the other way around. Lets say they DO spend. Will Chine be able to handle the supplies? A few months of stocking up necessities during the Chinese Virus outbreak in one province.

ETvmASBXQAAgcBZ.png


So, no Chinese Virus is NOT a masterstroke bullish case for China. Everything will not be hunky dory for China, despite what they project and get journalists to write for them. This wont be business as usual. Already India has decided to become self sufficient in APIs. Do you think the other countries are going to let this slide? I believe China is caught between a rock and a hard place. and oddly I believed this even before the Wuhan outbreak based on their debt alone as evidenced by my blogs and tweet series from several weeks back.

Bhagwaan Uvacha.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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What about those twits which said that over chinese 100 soldiers died in Galwan. So far as covid dwath is concern, we have world's most transperent system. Every positive case, hospitalization and deat is updated at every second online unlke China where over 21 million mobiles went inactive and yet only 4k deTh was declared.
I am 110% positive that the CCP lotas hid the true wuhan virus casualties. These are people who WELDED the doors of their citizens to enforce quarantine. They are capable of anything and everything. People think that the genocidal CCP has somehow changed, modernized. No they have not. The extreme enforcement to make sure that people put the party first in anything and everything - even above their own parents shows how depraved the CCP is. They are paying for entire Hollywood movies and getting bloggers to run Indian marry China and found paradise in China type shows.
A very confident, strong, vibrant nation will never hide behind a firewall. The CCP knows that if the Chinese peasants ever find out the reality there will be another revolution and every politburo member and their families will be burnt alive. Hence all the surveillance to make sure the peasants are never exposed to the truth. I spoke with some Tibetans and they can tell you exactly how the CCP operates - slimy, disgusting, lying about everything, barbaric, treating people like disposable meat - and why despite all the infrastructure buildup in occupied Tibet especially Lhasa , no one wants to go back and more occupied Tibetans want to get out of there.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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But there is something positive to learn from China: that is spending big on infrastructure even if you have to print money like the Chinese do seems to work and is not looked at as a bad thing by the world financial centers. I mean the CCP spent $30-40billion on the Lhasa HSR line. This is a completely unviable project yet they are able to literally print money and spend. The party says give me all your money and I won’t provide much interest rate for it, and the peasants have no option but to turn in their money to build atroc projects. You see in China nothing is yours , not your money, not your life, not your peace and happiness, not your culture and religion , not your festivals, not your aspirations- nothing. Everything belongs to the CCP. And they can do whatever they want no questions asked.
i really wish that some Indians wake up to how evil the CCP is and how they run an international criminal operation. It is very difficult for an ordinary person to realize the depth to which CCP goes to promote false propaganda. These are apes who want to choose their own Dalai Lama. Never forget that.
 

lixun

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Ya'll Nibbiars I am flummoxed by various analyses suggesting somehow the Wuhan Virus is a big positive to the Chinese economy. I have written two detailed blogs of how China's debt burden is approaching the levels that had once derailed Japan's perceived take over of the world. Will not repeat the same data here, please check out my blog: https://ecopoliticalindia.blogspot.com for the same. I can demonstrated why the "Chinese stocks havent crashed" is a big hoax.

And Now lets look at this seriously. The below is the structure of China's GDP over the last 10 years: I have highlighted the change in the 3 main levers of China's economy: Personal consumption PFCE Fixed capital formation GFCF Exports.

View attachment 101392

Note that China's export miracle never really came as ONLY 2.4% of china's incremental GDP between 2010-2019 came from increase in net exports. You can also see that exports as % of GDP have fallen from 27% to 17% over the same period. This is not a good sign given that China has created an entire infrastructure based on selling goods to foreigners. Post Chinese Virus, the world will become more exclusive. Countries that are running fiscal deficits of 10% are going to want to keep jobs INSIDE their country rather than shop for "china price".

Now The Chinese government has 2 levers to play with. First is GFCF, which is China building roads and factories and airports etc indiscriminately to either show a growth in GDP or to keep some people employed, or both. GFCF accounted for over 40% of incremental Chinese GDP since 2010-2019. Since a lot of the GFCF was export focused, and financed by debt (CHina's share of ALL global debt - govt, personal, corporate is over US$40trillion or >15%), how much more can China continue. to build. Already I can see a tiredness in GFCF spending which has come down from 48% of GDP to 44%. Now if GFCF/ GDP comes down to say 37.7% (average of the 1990s decade), the difference will be over $800bn USD annually which will need to be compensated by PFCE, final lever. Now PFCE depends on people spending. Will the Chinese people spend? Especially after the shock of the Chinese Virus?! China has had the lowest PFCE/GDP ratio vs economies like India and USA. The Chinese dont spend despite getting a very low interest on their savings.

Do you expect a older demographic to spend in this case? I dont think so. But lets argue the other way around. Lets say they DO spend. Will Chine be able to handle the supplies? A few months of stocking up necessities during the Chinese Virus outbreak in one province.

View attachment 101393

So, no Chinese Virus is NOT a masterstroke bullish case for China. Everything will not be hunky dory for China, despite what they project and get journalists to write for them. This wont be business as usual. Already India has decided to become self sufficient in APIs. Do you think the other countries are going to let this slide? I believe China is caught between a rock and a hard place. and oddly I believed this even before the Wuhan outbreak based on their debt alone as evidenced by my blogs and tweet series from several weeks back.

Bhagwaan Uvacha.
I don’t know much about the economy, so I should talk about my views. First of all, Chinese government debt is mainly local government debt, which is a large amount of infrastructure debt, but infrastructure has largely stimulated economic growth
The second is household debt, mainly real estate debt, which greatly limits residents’ consumption.
China should no longer stimulate the economy through large-scale debt expansion, so we began to deleverage in 2016 and began to talk about industrial upgrading and the Belt and Road Initiative to expand exports.
 

Tang

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Largest automobile markets worldwide in 2020, based on new car registrations



Deccan Herald
China's nominal GDP per capita was $9,580 and India's nominal GDP per capita was $2,038 in 2018. So, China's GDP per capita was 4.7 times higher than India's in 2018. The CEBR further said that India's economy had been losing momentum even ahead of the shock delivered by the Covid-19 crisis.

We have multiple times already pointed out why chinese are buying more cars and luxury compared to India, and why India's gdp per capita is less than chinese.

It's because workforce of India is around 500million while for chinese, it is around a billion.

Do you want kids in India to buy cars?

When Indian workforce will be at level of china in around 20 years, then we can compare both.
 

rockdog

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Note that China's export miracle never really came as ONLY 2.4% of china's incremental GDP between 2010-2019 came from increase in net exports. You can also see that exports as % of GDP have fallen from 27% to 17% over the same period. This is not a good sign given that China has created an entire infrastructure based on selling goods to foreigners. Post Chinese Virus, the world will become more exclusive. Countries that are running fiscal deficits of 10% are going to want to keep jobs INSIDE their country rather than shop for "china price".
Your comments make me feel you know very little about Chinese economy .

The share of export sector fallen to Chinese economy is not because it's not strong, just because the internal consuming grew much faster and stronger.

During 2010-2019 it's almos the golden time for Chinese economy. the GDP ratio to India changed from 3:1 to almost 5.5:1, if combine HK and Macau, the ratio is already 6:1 by 2020. The automobile market from no.2 of world became the no.1 and the related GDP size is equal to USA+EU; and by 2020 Chinese local market almost consumed 35% luxury brands in the world...

By some statistics, 2019 is the year China's domestic consuming market overtake USA as biggest consuming market in the world, but few people noticed that.

It's not grew over night, Chinese government already knew the risk of dependency only on export and insfrasctures investment after 2008 financial crisis, but put lots of effort on stimulating consuming sector, like providing heavy subsidies to car and tv like stuff consuming in rural area. Do you know where those subsidy money came from, it's the money orginally for VAT refund of export (subsidying the export), but used for internal consuming market now.

Just because it's a total internal policy and execution, not many outsiders noticed that. And it also made the cost of car, tv, moile phone makers earned more money and made them became more competitive to international markert. Now you can see the market share on India's TV and Mobile phone, those leaders got huge subsidies during 2008-2019 by this hidden policy.

But export sector is still pretty strong, i still remeber even around 2006 China still had trade deficit with India, but how much deficit now India to China? The CEO of Micromax visited China in 2016 and claim they will have certain market share here and will have ambition to be top5 in the world, i was very amazed by that speech and we all knew the result.

But only one thing you said was right:

Ya'll Nibbiars I am flummoxed by various analyses suggesting somehow the Wuhan Virus is a big positive to the Chinese economy.
Yes, by now 2021 July, China is the only nation not hit by the virus badly and keep the whole supply chain wokring properly, the export GDP grew 20% compare to 2019, and orders from outside world is still growing, including orders shifted from India ...

Please check the artcile blew.

@Haldilal bro, i admire your effort on research Chinese economy, there are so many ignorant rant in this forum, you seems not quite like that. But please do more homework, you might find the true logic behind.



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