Challenging India's Demographic Advantage, China's new Policy

[bose]

have you ever seen any national policy being enforced permanently?

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The ageing population and gender in balances has proved that one child policy was wrong that has lead to change or enforcement...

 

[bennedose]

no one expected the old policy to be permanently enforced, not even CCP who established that policy.

therefore, abolishing the policy doesnt mean an admission of mistake. it only means that the policy has fulfilled its mission, now it's time too let it go.

You are parroting the party line by saying that curbing the freedom of 3 or 4 generations of Chinese to have more than one child was not a mistake. In fact all despots know that if you kill one generation of people, it will all be forgotten in two generations. The fact is for many decades Chinese have been forced to have only one child with no news or inkling that it would be reversed by anyone at any time. Suddenly the policy is changed and you are saying "We knew it".Funny that no one said it until it was done.

 

[bose]

You are parroting the party line by saying that curbing the freedom of 3 or 4 generations of Chinese to have more than one child was not a mistake. In fact all despots know that if you kill one generation of people, it will all be forgotten in two generations. The fact is for many decades Chinese have been forced to have only one child with no news or inkling that it would be reversed by anyone at any time. Suddenly the policy is changed and you are saying "We knew it".Funny that no one said it until it was done.

Sir, you are arguing with the wrong persons... they cannot think rationally or better to say were not allowed to think out of the official line... the consequences are grave... poor Chinese !!

 

[bennedose]

@bennedose 's efforts in the tedious write-up is laudable. do u know Chinese birth control was copycatted from Indira Gandhi's forced sterilization? ? if u didnt, pls brush up your knowledge of Indian history.

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The truth can be tedious all right. Its the bluffing and denial that is funny. The one child policy was more than tedious - it was draconian. It may ot have been the people's fault but it was the fault of a government that will never give up power. Let me say it here and now. The Chinese communist party will never give up power so that if the party even fades into history no drone will say "Oh we knew the system was never going to be permanent", If someone feels that the power of the Chinese communist party is not permanent, like its one child policy, please say it now.

I like the idea that one can study Indian history to understand what China does. India threw out Indira Gandhi after her coercive policy was attempted and she was even bumped off for other mistakes she committed. Here we have Chinese drones not only being completely unable to change the government for mistakes the government made, but standing up and sayng "Rah Rah Rah - long live the communist party even after they admit that the policy was wrong.

Let me see some scholarly peer reviewed papers about the morbidity and mortality of abortions in China.

 

[bennedose]

Sir, you are arguing with the wrong persons... they cannot think rationally or better to say were not allowed to think out of the official line... the consequences are grave... poor Chinese !!

True. But for every drone who exposes his indoctrination, ignorance and tunnel vision there are 100 lurkers who need to be exposed to the fact that other views exist and that only 1 in 6 humans is a Chinese.

 

[bennedose]

now that China has avoided a catastrophic population explosion, to determine if the policy is a mistake, we need to find out if China can survive the serious problem created by it, which will take decades.

China will survive. The policy was not changed because anyone was worried about China's survival. The communist party is worried about its own survival. China has a recorded history of 6000 years. How long has the politburo ruled over the Chinese?

The fact that Maoist doctrine did not give a damn about people is well known. Mao is on record as not being worried about a great famine because it would reduce China's population. He also shocked the US by saying that even if 300 million Chines died in a nuclear war, China would survive. The communist party of today are the direct descendants of that with many policies intact. The party hated the Chinese past - which many non Chinese admired, and the party has indoctrinated modern Chinese to hate and reject their own past. What a sorry bunch.

 

[badguy2000]

True. But for every drone who exposes his indoctrination, ignorance and tunnel vision there are 100 lurkers who need to be exposed to the fact that other views exist and that only 1 in 6 humans is a Chinese.

chinese
population policy is called 'Population plan'.one kid policy is just stage one.now it is stage two,two kids policy.

 

[drkrn]

the policy was introduced to prevent a population explosion, and it has successfully served its purpose.

i admit that this radical policy has its serious side effect such as an aging population and growing gender imbalance.

but the conclusion of it being a mistake or not can only be made after we weigh pros against the cons, not based on silly logic like it's a mistake because it's abolished.

new policies are being introduced each year, old policies are being phased out at same time, each policy has its a life cycle.

i personally think that it's too soon to say it's a mistake.

for those who really are interested in this issue, who are not just here to tease, i advise to think what China would look like if there was no aggressive measure being taken to slow the population growth.

one obvious impact of high population gowth in China would be starvation. with limited fertile land, the agricultural output of today's China has pushed its limit, but China is still importing more and more food each year. how could China feed the extra hundreds of millions?

now that China has avoided a catastrophic population explosion, to determine if the policy is a mistake, we need to find out if China can survive the serious problem created by it, which will take decades.

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true.

damned if you do,damned if you don't.

same population explosion is there with india too,isn't it??

more over you considerably forgot the landmass of china,density is more useful in depicting population explosion rather than population alone,imo.

successful single child policy could have controlled population explosion,but have led china in to 4-2-1,for which china have to take serious steps of correction

 

[drkrn]

why is India also having a huge gender imbalance without a family planning policy?

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selective female feticides in the past,and the results are evident now.

but in the recent past the imbalance is going down.

 

[drkrn]

chinese
population policy is called 'Population plan'.one kid policy is just stage one.now it is stage two,two kids policy.

now china will forcibly impregnate ladies who are interested with only one child

just kidding

 

[cw2005]

In future, young boys and girls in China will take an additional consideration to decide whom to be married if they want to have not one but two children. Millions lovers would not be married each other because of this new policy. And might increase the rate of devoice end up many single mother/farther. That is another social problem to be solved.

 

[Tolaha]

Congratulations to all Chinese members, for the announcement of the Communist Party to relax its one child policy!

Does this mean some of you folks will now be 'encouraged' to hump even if you don't want to or you still have a choice?

 

[nimo_cn]

The ageing population and gender in balances has proved that one child policy was wrong that has lead to change or enforcement...

how about it successfully saving China from a population explosion? shouldn't that also be counted in when you are making a judgement on the policy?

every coin has two sides. for a policy as aggressive as family planning policy, side effects like aging population and gender imbalance are mostly expected.

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[nimo_cn]

its a mistake done by ccp.the basic mistake done by them at that time was not thinking about the demographics few decades later,4-2-1 syndrome.

will that be a success that would be acknowledged??

demography is no rocket science. in fact, demographics is among the easiest to be predicted. it doesnt take much for one to figure out what the demographics will be like 30 years from the year the policy was introduced.

the mistake CCP made was that they didnt take necessary measures much earlier. in the early 1960s, there already were Chinese scholars warning about the fast growing population and its serious consequences, suggesting proper policy to be established to control the fast growth of Chinese population. interesting thing is that what they proposed was two children for each couple. no one listened, not until the population was almost out of control.

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[bose]

how about it successfully saving China from a population explosion? shouldn't that also be counted in when you are making a judgement on the policy?

Very true that China's one child policy has arrested the population explosion... no doubt about it... regarding the judgment part, the end result achieved cannot be an indicator for any policy success as one also need to factor out the cost one have to pay at a long run, the human cost as in this case was gender in balances and a ageing population...

Why can not a couple decide to have two child ?? there can be more than one genuine reasons for that.. why one have to stop tham ??

every coin has two sides. for a policy as aggressive as family planning policy, side effects like aging population and gender imbalance are mostly expected.

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Are you sure that all Chinese agree with you on the bolded part??

We tried the same in 1970's and failed miserably, the way I would prefer the route of education and economic development for common masses the issue will be taken care off by itself...

I would quote here from a well known India Visionary "Vivekananda" who said the problem to social ills such as superstitions and prejudices can be resolved very quickly by education especially to the women in the country side.

 

[nimo_cn]

Very true that China's one child policy has arrested the population explosion... no doubt about it... regarding the judgment part, the end result achieved cannot be an indicator for any policy success as one also need to factor out the cost one have to pay at a long run, the human cost as in this case was gender in balances and a ageing population...

Why can not a couple decide to have two child ?? there can be more than one genuine reasons for that.. why one have to stop tham ??




Are you sure that all Chinese agree with you on the bolded part??

We tried the same in 1970's and failed miserably, the way I would prefer the route of education and economic development for common masses the issue will be taken care off by itself...

I would quote here from a well known India Visionary "Vivekananda" who said the problem to social ills such as superstitions and prejudices can be resolved very quickly by education especially to the women in the country side.

many Chinese posters haved clarified more than once, it's not one child policy, one child for one is only implemented in urban areas. in rural area, couples with the first child being girl are allowed to have a second child.

we all agree that the policy China has taken is very aggressive, isn't it? but even with a policy as aggressive as that, being enforced for more than 30 years, Chinese population has been growing pretty fast until recently.

education and economic development can certainly in a way reduce population growth, but it's not strong enough.

another thing you need to factor in is that China started as a poor country, there was no money for education back then. if China took your way, it's probably a dead end.

too many children leads to poverty, poverty leads to no education, no education leads to more children, and it never ends!

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[bose]

many Chinese posters haved clarified more than once, it's not one child policy, one child for one is only implemented in urban areas. in rural area, couples with the first child being girl are allowed to have a second child.

we all agree that the policy China has taken is very aggressive, isn't it? but even with a policy as aggressive as that, being enforced for more than 30 years, Chinese population has been growing pretty fast until recently.

education and economic development can certainly in a way reduce population growth, but it's not strong enough.

another thing you need to factor in is that China started as a poor country, there was no money for education back then. if China took your way, it's probably a dead end.

too many children leads to poverty, poverty leads to no education, no education leads to more children, and it never ends!

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I have no issue if the Chinese wanted the harsh way to control the population... after all it is your system and your laws... I will stick to the believe that we should not try to restrict or control nature by artificial means, and then the long run consequences will be catastrophic"¦

India was no different than China, infact India faced bigger challenges from a plunder and pilferage of 1000 years"¦ un manageable situation as it was in the initial years"¦ I hear the same bogey of no money in India too, the problem is not with the money but the resolve and genuine intention to serve the people and the temptation of resorting to short cuts in the third world nations"¦

 

[bennedose]

Actually China not having a "population explosion" is a debatable point. With 1.3 billion people the explosion took place many decades ago and it could not be stopped even with a draconian one child policy. But why blame China? The entire world is having (or has had) a population explosion.

The real reason why populations are burgeoning is that in the 20th century the usual causes of death that kept the population down were conquered. These were infectious disease that used to kill children and adults in large numbers such as smallpox, diphtheria, cholera and plague. A second reason is that women used to die from childbirth related complications - and this was prevented by simple measures involving hygiene and early monitoring of pregnancies.

This made all populations explode. But Europe slowed down with effective birth control and literacy. There is a strange and unexplained link between female literacy and birth rate. The higher the rate of female literacy the lower the birth rate. Every country has slowed down population growth by "birth spacing". Only China used continuous coercion but achieved a faster fall in the birth rate, but the primary reason for large populations will not go away.

Having said that, Pakistan which had 140 million people just 10 years ago has 180 million now and will rise to 350 million. It may be coincidental that female literacy is being discouraged in areas of Pakistan where Islamic fundamentalists rule the roost.

China's population is still growing. It was predicted that India would overtake China's population in the late 1990s. But that has not happened yet. What does that mean? Either China's coercion was not as effective as planned, or India's birth rate control system was more effective than it was given credit for.

As per this link China's arable land area is 12% or 1164835 sq km. India arable land is 53% or 1709546 sq km. Xinjiang and Tibet are deserts which China has simply occupied - they hardly have arable land. Fertile China is all in the east. That is where the population is. A night time photo of China and India (and Pakistan) is very telling about where people live.
Tibet, Xinjiang and taller than mountain ally Pakistan are mostly dark. Apart from the Rajasthan desert, every part of India is lit up.

 

[drkrn]

Actually China not having a "population explosion" is a debatable point. With 1.3 billion people the explosion took place many decades ago and it could not be stopped even with a draconian one child policy. But why blame China? The entire world is having (or has had) a population explosion.

The real reason why populations are burgeoning is that in the 20th century the usual causes of death that kept the population down were conquered. These were infectious disease that used to kill children and adults in large numbers such as smallpox, diphtheria, cholera and plague. A second reason is that women used to die from childbirth related complications - and this was prevented by simple measures involving hygiene and early monitoring of pregnancies.

This made all populations explode. But Europe slowed down with effective birth control and literacy. There is a strange and unexplained link between female literacy and birth rate. The higher the rate of female literacy the lower the birth rate. Every country has slowed down population growth by "birth spacing". Only China used continuous coercion but achieved a faster fall in the birth rate, but the primary reason for large populations will not go away.

Having said that, Pakistan which had 140 million people just 10 years ago has 180 million now and will rise to 350 million. It may be coincidental that female literacy is being discouraged in areas of Pakistan where Islamic fundamentalists rule the roost.

China's population is still growing. It was predicted that India would overtake China's population in the late 1990s. But that has not happened yet. What does that mean? Either China's coercion was not as effective as planned, or India's birth rate control system was more effective than it was given credit for.

As per this link China's arable land area is 12% or 1164835 sq km. India arable land is 53% or 1709546 sq km. Xinjiang and Tibet are deserts which China has simply occupied - they hardly have arable land. Fertile China is all in the east. That is where the population is. A night time photo of China and India (and Pakistan) is very telling about where people live.
Tibet, Xinjiang and taller than mountain ally Pakistan are mostly dark. Apart from the Rajasthan desert, every part of India is lit up.

graphic pics dude...you believe in this stuff

 

[no smoking]

I have no issue if the Chinese wanted the harsh way to control the population... after all it is your system and your laws... I will stick to the believe that we should not try to restrict or control nature by artificial means, and then the long run consequences will be catastrophic"¦

India was no different than China, infact India faced bigger challenges from a plunder and pilferage of 1000 years"¦ un manageable situation as it was in the initial years"¦ I hear the same bogey of no money in India too, the problem is not with the money but the resolve and genuine intention to serve the people and the temptation of resorting to short cuts in the third world nations"¦

Ok, please list what is India's solution to this problem!
And please tell me that the same problem in India has been resolved without consequences!