Can India leverage France bailing on Russia?

pmaitra

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Can India leverage France bailing on Russia?

Commentators at the venerable DFI have been watching the Dassalt Rafale deal with interest. Some would like to have the envisaged deal sooner than later, while some would rather have it minus the ToT, while some prefer to scrap it already and focus on the HAL LCA Tejas. Some have even tried to explained that Rafale is a big mistake. There have been claims that this deal was finalized by Sonia Gandhi's sisters and Carla Bruni.

Now, with the Ukrainian Civil War raging between the proxies of western powers and the Russian Federation, France, apparently has come under immense pressure from the US, and even more pressure from Germany, to scrap the supply of the Mistral.

France risks a contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India because of the refusal to give the Russian Federation "Mistral"

France can not afford to refuse deliveries "Mistral" in Russia, said the director of the Franco-Russian Analytical Center Observatory at the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce Arnaud Dubien Thursday 4th of September.

According to him, the point here is even not in Russia or financial losses from the termination of the contract.

"The reason for reputational risk in the arms market. Employees of the Ministry of Defence of France, in private conversations recognize that if we do not put the "Mistral" to Russia, France lost a contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India "- says Arnaud Dubien.
Mistral row: France risks losing Rafale contract in India

A source in the Indian Defence Ministry said that India was "watching the developments closely." The source added it was too early to say if this would factor into the government's decision to sign a contract. "When such a large amount of money is paid and then a supplier uses geopolitics to delay or suspend deliveries, it does raise eyebrows," the source, who was not authorised to talk to the media, said. The Indian Ministry of Defence could not be immediately reached for official comment.
What can India do here?

On the planes:
  • Can India put even more pressure on France to sweeten the deal further, showing them that they are not a reliable supplier?
  • Can India take the deal to Russia, and buy fighter jets from them at a significantly cheaper rate than what Russia would charge PRC, citing "old friendship," and showing them that India is willing to take business out from France and bring it to Russia?

On turbines:
Building fighter planes is something India is going to be able to do. India has been grappling with its jet engines.
  • Can India pressurize France to pull its socks up over the Kaveri and "prove its mettle" (for want of a better phrase) within a certain time frame, in order to encourage progress on the Rafale deal?
  • Can India pressurize Russia, citing monetary benefits in the face of western sanctions, to set up a turbine factory in India, that would be able to build the entire jet engine with resources available in India?

How can India benefit from these feuding Europeans?
 

DingDong

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Attitude of EU might change after Agni VI test. Watch out.
 

Zebra

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Can India leverage France bailing on Russia?

Commentators at the venerable DFI have been watching the Dassalt Rafale deal with interest. Some would like to have the envisaged deal sooner than later, while some would rather have it minus the ToT, while some prefer to scrap it already and focus on the HAL LCA Tejas. Some have even tried to explained that Rafale is a big mistake. There have been claims that this deal was finalized by Sonia Gandhi's sisters and Carla Bruni.

Now, with the Ukrainian Civil War raging between the proxies of western powers and the Russian Federation, France, apparently has come under immense pressure from the US, and even more pressure from Germany, to scrap the supply of the Mistral.

France risks a contract to supply 126 fighter jets to India because of the refusal to give the Russian Federation "Mistral"



Mistral row: France risks losing Rafale contract in India



What can India do here?

On the planes:
  • Can India put even more pressure on France to sweeten the deal further, showing them that they are not a reliable supplier?
  • Can India take the deal to Russia, and buy fighter jets from them at a significantly cheaper rate than what Russia would charge PRC, citing "old friendship," and showing them that India is willing to take business out from France and bring it to Russia?

On turbines:
Building fighter planes is something India is going to be able to do. India has been grappling with its jet engines.
  • Can India pressurize France to pull its socks up over the Kaveri and "prove its mettle" (for want of a better phrase) within a certain time frame, in order to encourage progress on the Rafale deal?
  • Can India pressurize Russia, citing monetary benefits in the face of western sanctions, to set up a turbine factory in India, that would be able to build the entire jet engine with resources available in India?

How can India benefit from these feuding Europeans?
India must stay away from Russia-France issues. On the basis of........sari duniya ka matam hamari mazar pe nahi.

Much easy for India.
 

Ray

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Everything appears murky.

How come Sonia Gandhi is always linked to defence deals?

A coincidence or deliberate maligning?
 

JBH22

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If France is bailing on Russia it can only prove itself as a non reliable partner/supplier and it can only reinforce calls for swadeshi defence industry.
 

jouni

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Great to see France pulling out of Mistral deal. They show moral backbone which one expects from country which gave the world "egalite liberte fraternite".
 

pmaitra

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If France is bailing on Russia it can only prove itself as a non reliable partner/supplier and it can only reinforce calls for swadeshi defence industry.
I would so soft on France.

France probably didn't want this, but is doing so under extreme pressure. Remember the cryogenic engine saga? Even then, Russia didn't want it, but caved in to pressure. France's economic situation is not very good, so they cannot say a thing from a position of strength.

India diplomacy should try to coax the French to remain independent and honour their deals. These are the only two countries that are least likely to sanction India.

India must stay away from Russia-France issues. On the basis of........sari duniya ka matam hamari mazar pe nahi.

Much easy for India.
My question was how can India leverage this situation to its own benefit?

Their feud could potentially benefit us. Or we could just stay away and miss out. PRS struck a reasonable energy deal with Russia after the Crimean crisis. This "staying away" strategy can mean loss of opportunity.

Everything appears murky.

How come Sonia Gandhi is always linked to defence deals?

A coincidence or deliberate maligning?
Sir, it is our outspoken Swamiji, who seems to get carried away easily.
 

Yusuf

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France has been pretty reliable for us over the years and our relations with the west are good and only getting better.
 

asianobserve

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India can bid at lower prices for the Mistrals intended for Russia... This is the simplest way it can benefit from this Franco-Russo falling out.
 

Zebra

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My question was how can India leverage this situation to its own benefit?

Their feud could potentially benefit us. Or we could just stay away and miss out. PRS struck a reasonable energy deal with Russia after the Crimean crisis. This "staying away" strategy can mean loss of opportunity.
OK, tell me from where you get benefit and opportunity in it.
 

Zebra

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W.G.Ewald

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Current export opportunities for Dassault include:

India (~126). Preferred choice, but no contract yet.
Qatar (36). Could rise to 72 over time. The QEAF is looking to replace their 12 Mirage 2000D fighters and 6 combat capable Alpha Jet light aircraft, but the growing power vacuum is pushing them toward a larger buy. Competition: Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet, F-15 Strike Eagle.
The UAE (60). Mirage 2000 customer. Negotiations have dragged for a long time.

Secondary opportunities include:

Bahrain (12-18). Considered a low odds bid. Competition: Eurofighter, likely F-16V and F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet.
Canada (~65). F-35 partner. Very unlikely there there will even be a real competition.
Kuwait (18-24). Considered a low odds bid. Competition: Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet.
Malaysia (18). MiG-29N replacement on hold. Competition: JAS-39E Gripen NG, Eurofighter, F/A-18 Advanced Super Hornet, Sukhoi SU-30MKM.
France’s Rafale Fighters: Looking for Love…
 

anupamsurey

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the best thing for India will be to what it is doing now, ie; to do not meddle in the RUS-FRC tussle. we have good relations with france and russia, eventually we will benefit from it, then why to should we be a loser in uninvited game.
France know that it can't keep the mistrals away from russia and rus knows that it will get the mistrals when things get cooled down.so the situation doesn't warrants India's interference. anyway, such talks of interfering in the matter of two Independent nations doesn't go well with the Indian policies, so wisely India has maintained its distance from such issue, this is the best diplomatic way to get the things done without pestering others. after all we did the same with crimea even though we supported Russia.
 

pmaitra

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It doesn't say anything about specific deals which can be lucrative for India.
I misunderstood. I thought you were asking about India leveraging Russia's (also France's) weakness, so I gave an example how PRC leveraged Russia's weakness.

If you want some specific examples, you need to read the opening post of the thread.
 

Zebra

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I misunderstood. I thought you were asking about India leveraging Russia's (also France's) weakness, so I gave an example how PRC leveraged Russia's weakness.

If you want some specific examples, you need to read the opening post of the thread.
Then you already got my answer.

Please refer post #3.
 

pmaitra

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Then you already got my answer.

Please refer post #3.
So, it is somewhat like this (quoted below):

Even if India can leverage this situation, it should not. Ok, that should be a third option, and this approach could benefit us in the future.

the best thing for India will be to what it is doing now, ie; to do not meddle in the RUS-FRC tussle. we have good relations with france and russia, eventually we will benefit from it, then why to should we be a loser in uninvited game.
France know that it can't keep the mistrals away from russia and rus knows that it will get the mistrals when things get cooled down.so the situation doesn't warrants India's interference. anyway, such talks of interfering in the matter of two Independent nations doesn't go well with the Indian policies, so wisely India has maintained its distance from such issue, this is the best diplomatic way to get the things done without pestering others. after all we did the same with crimea even though we supported Russia.
 

sgarg

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My opinion is that the worsening of Russia/West relations have a direct impact on India.

It is no longer business as usual.

India will be forced to choose one over the other - sooner or later. The best course is NOT TO DEPEND on either party.

India must think in terms of LCA, AMCA etc. Forget the Rafale. It was a nice dream that washed out with the first ray of light in the morning.
 

Sylex21

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India should use it's leverage on France to pressure them to complete the deal with Russia. Plain and simple, India should stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia whenever possible. India doesn't need to sacrifice good relations with the west or Russia, it is powerful enough to stand on its own now.
 

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