Bloomberg: China's Economy to Overtake Euro Zone This Year

rockdog

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Bloomberg: China's Economy to Overtake Euro Zone This Year

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-set-to-overtake-combined-euro-area-this-year

In another sign that the “Asian century” has arrived, China is on course to overtake the euro area in the size of its economy this year.

China’s gross domestic product is forecast to reach about $13.2 trillion in 2018, beating the $12.8 trillion combined total of the 19 countries that use the euro, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 2017, the euro cohort edged China by less than $200 billion.

“It’ll overtake and then persist,” said David Mann, Singapore-based global chief economist for Standard Chartered Bank. “It’s a function of the economic system, institutional infrastructure, education and hard infrastructure -- all of which have been moving in Asia’s favor.”



Asia -- including powerhouses Japan and India as well fast-emerging emerging nations such as the Philippines and Indonesia -- already crowded out the combined economies of North and South America in 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And the faster average growth pace in Asia is set to be a boon to that yawning gap for many years.

China’s leaders, convening in Beijing for the National People’s Congress, have doubled down on President Xi Jinping’s ability to keep growth stable, having removed the limit on his rule. The world’s second-biggest economy is weathering a gradual slowdown as Xi tries to manage a shift from the low-wage, high-exports model of the past to a more balanced mix where stronger domestic spending plays a greater role.

To do so, China faces numerous challenges. It will have to manage ballooning debt, financial markets need to open to global investors, and the government will have to adjust to a rapidly aging population. The UN projects that a quarter of its residents will be over 60 by 2030.

China should grow at a pace of at least 6 percent for the rest of this decade and keep up a 5 to 5.5 percent rate throughout the 2020s, Mann projected. He said it’s hard to argue that growth in the euro area would be much above 2 percent for the next couple of decades.

Here’s How Fast China’s Economy Is Catching Up to the U.S.

While it’s tricky to compare the growth data across large swaths of time, the best guess as to the last time China’s economy overshadowed Western Europe was around the mid-1800s, said Aditya Bhave, global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, citing figures compiled by the Maddison Project at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.

China’s rising trajectory would help return the global economy to a state that’s persisted through most of history, with the last 150 years being an outlier in which Western economies outweighed those in the East, Mann said.

“China’s rapid re-emergence as an economic powerhouse -- remember it used to be the world’s largest economy in the 1800s -- has enormous implications,” said Rob Subbaraman, head of emerging market economics at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore.

“The impact of China on global financial markets and commodities is no longer trivial. But its economic size also brings economic tensions in terms of market share competition in trade and investment” as well as foreign policy tensions, according to Subbaraman.
 

jon jon jon

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The return of Chinese and Indian economic leadership is just a return to the status quo for the past 2,000 years, .....minus of course the brief 150 years dominance of Western economies in the 19th and 20th centuries.
 

ezsasa

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The return of Chinese and Indian economic leadership is just a return to the status quo for the past 2,000 years, .....minus of course the brief 150 years dominance of Western economies in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Chinese are already there, we are not there yet. Hopefully in another 10 years time, assuming our stupid electorate don’t do any blunders in between.
 

aditya10r

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Chinese are already there, we are not there yet. Hopefully in another 10 years time, assuming our stupid electorate don’t do any blunders in between.
Hmmmm.I think we are gonna take atleast 20 years to be considered a future superpower,what china is being considered now.

That also comes with 7% GDP growth rate.
If we sustain that.
 

tarunraju

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Just to be clear, Eurozone ≠ EU. It excludes all the EU member states that don't use Euro (and are yet part of the EU economy and common market). That's EU minus big economies like the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Croatia, and Romania, etc., which have their own currencies.

This is textbook cherry-picking. The EU (Eurozone + non-Eurozone) is a $17.11 trillion economy, and PRC is $11.93 trillion.

Wake me up when China is actually overtaking the EU (i.e. Eurozone + non-Eurozone EU member-states). Not anytime soon.
 

jon jon jon

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Just to be clear, Eurozone ≠ EU. It excludes all the EU member states that don't use Euro (and are yet part of the EU economy and common market). That's EU minus big economies like the UK, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Croatia, and Romania, etc., which have their own currencies.

This is textbook cherry-picking. The EU (Eurozone + non-Eurozone) is a $17.11 trillion economy, and PRC is $11.93 trillion.

Wake me up when China is actually overtaking the EU (i.e. Eurozone + non-Eurozone EU member-states). Not anytime soon.
nominal or PPP? If nominal, even a burger flipper in EU makes more money than an engineer in India.
 

ezsasa

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The word India doesn't appear anywhere in my post. Even a burger flipper in India is more literate than you.
Maybe the chap is a “on the job trainee” from 50-cent University. Don’t be harsh, he/she is still learning the ropes.
 
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badguy2000

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Chinese are already there, we are not there yet. Hopefully in another 10 years time, assuming our stupid electorate don’t do any blunders in between.
chinese are not there yet ,either.

we still have a long way to go before chinese real quality of life is to catch up with yankees/europeans completely.

when indians were to have chinese,instead of english,as their most important foreign language, china would be there.
 

nongaddarliberal

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when indians were to have chinese,instead of english,as their most important foreign language, china would be there.
Pride wont let that happen, whatever the economic benefit. We'll just have to make do with google translator, or good old English. I was in Thailand a few months back, and I experienced a rather funny sight. I was sitting in a cafe and a Japanese guy was trying to communicate with the Barista who was Thai. Neither of them was knowledgeable in English, but that is the language both of them used, with a lot of stammering and plenty of gestures, to finally come to an agreement on how much the bacon should be fried. English is the global language now, whether any of us like it or not.
 

Shredder

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chinese are not there yet ,either.

we still have a long way to go before chinese real quality of life is to catch up with yankees/europeans completely.

when indians were to have chinese,instead of english,as their most important foreign language, china would be there.
I must share an experience here even though it is offtopic. Me and my colleague had been to Guangzhou a few months back on business. Why is it so bloody difficult to find vegetarian food in China? It's almost non existent. I myself enjoyed all the non-vegetarian fare, especially the duck; my veggie friend had to make do with mostly fruits, plain rice and bread.

Loads of meat-eaters are turning towards veganism/vegetarianism, is such a thought/movement present in China?
 

badguy2000

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I must share an experience here even though it is offtopic. Me and my colleague had been to Guangzhou a few months back on business. Why is it so bloody difficult to find vegetarian food in China? It's almost non existent. I myself enjoyed all the non-vegetarian fare, especially the duck; my veggie friend had to make do with mostly fruits, plain rice and bread.

Loads of meat-eaters are turning towards veganism/vegetarianism, is such a thought/movement present in China?
vegetarianism is not prevail in china.
 

rockdog

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I must share an experience here even though it is offtopic. Me and my colleague had been to Guangzhou a few months back on business. Why is it so bloody difficult to find vegetarian food in China? It's almost non existent. I myself enjoyed all the non-vegetarian fare, especially the duck; my veggie friend had to make do with mostly fruits, plain rice and bread.

Loads of meat-eaters are turning towards veganism/vegetarianism, is such a thought/movement present in China?
vegetarianism is not prevail in china.
One interesting fact is, even by per capital, Chinese consume most vegetable in the world, yes as a developing nation, the per capital consumption is leading...

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/vegetable-consumption-per-capita-kilograms-per-year

http://www.helgilibrary.com/indicators/vegetable-consumption-per-capita/world/

But indeed, most Chinese just mix them with meat, specially in Guangzhou city and Guangzhou province, they eat various of animals, the stuff even the people from other provinces feel quite strange.... And Indian and westerners must feel scary...
 

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