Below normal monsoon challenge for new government

Simple_Guy

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Farmlands in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, Myanmar and Afghanistan will most probably get "below-normal to normal rainfall" amid consensus among experts about the possibility of the El Nino during the June-September monsoon season, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum said in a statement in Pune, India yesterday. Rain is seen below normal in western, central and southwestern parts of South Asia, it said.

"If there is a shortfall to the monsoon, the inflation will spike up again. Because there are very few drivers to growth, if the monsoon fails, it will dent growth as well." Risks to inflation arise from guaranteed prices for farm products, higher energy costs and government spending on subsidies, Rajan has said. There is also a threat from less-than-normal rains due to possible El Nino effects, he said.

"Oilseeds, lentils, sugarcane and cotton are the major crops that could be in trouble in India," said Prerana Desai, research head at Kotak Commodity Services Ltd. in Mumbai. "Last year soybeans were damaged due to late rains. Damage to the crop for two consecutive years will be a matter of worry."

Monsoon rainfall was the least in almost four decades in 2009, when El Nino occurred last, data show. Rice and oilseed harvests fell 10 percent, Agriculture Ministry data show.

Businessweek
 

Simple_Guy

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Below normal monsoon prediction hits stock market

"The major reason (for weak sentiment) seems to be concerns over the news that monsoon is likely to be below normal which will impact the country's economy," said Rakesh Goyal, Senior Vice-President, Bonanza Portfolio.

The Met Department on Thursday said the monsoon is expected to be below normal in 2014 because of the El Nino effect, arising from the warmer-than-average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
 

Simple_Guy

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So while west and central India may suffer shortfall in rain, some parts of India will endure excess rain leading to floods. If this flood water can somehow be diverted, via temporary pipes, into the streams running in drought areas?

Flood management

Diversion of flood waters takes a part of the flood discharge to another basin or to the same basin downstream of the problem area or to a depression where it could be stored for subsequent release. This measure can be used to manage unusual floods around cities as in the case of flood spill channel near Srinagar and also in the lower reaches of a river near the sea as in the case of Krishna Godavari drainage scheme.

Important schemes under execution or under planning are the supplementary drain in Delhi, the outfall channel in Jammu and Kashmir, the Damodar in the lower reaches in West Bengal, the Thottapally Spillway diversion in Kerala, the Kolleru lake diversion into the sea in Andhra Pradesh, the Kama-Pahari drain in Rajasthan and the Hulwaa drain in Uttar Pradesh.
 

Hari Sud

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Fire those Indian Meteorological Department scientists who in May predicted deficient rains in India during Monsoon Season of 2015. They use less of their own brains and rely more on Western thought process, which relied too much on El Niño effect over India. It has happened otherwise, there is excess rain as of June 26th with only two geographical areas deficient. Government got scared and actually oiled its machinery for draught conditions. Shame On those scientists who mislead. They are no better than DRDO, all talk and no work.

As opposed to IMD, a private forecasting service of SkyMet in India, predicted it otherwise. SkyMet was forecasting normal rains. Their forecast is in line with what is actually happening on the ground.
 

NSG_Blackcats

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Its seems for June 2015 Monsoon would be 15-20% above normal across India with few pockets getting deficient rain. The month of July would be crucial but I guess states like Maharashtra and Gujarat , MP is getting good amount of rain in June which will fill up the reservoirs.
 

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