Bangladesh Economy thread

Marliii

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It's more complicated than that. Emerging economies upon having higher growth shows opposite trends in currency valuations. If it's happening you are doing good. If it's not then there is something seriously wrong with that economy which in BD's case are low ECI, muted access to credit etc.
Do you believe these raqibools will become even an asian cub?
 

Crazywithmath

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Do you believe these raqibools will become even an asian cub?
No. I have already explained the reasons before. First of all, the era of Asian tigers is over. A country like BD with TFR of 1.9, ECI rank >100, pathetically low LPU and EoDB rank coupled with less access to credit cannot sustain high growth for long. GSP status will be gone by 2025. Chinese virus induced disruptions will play spoilsport. This is the reason you do not get to read a lot of articles that project BD to be an economic heavyweight despite having high growth for the last few years. Mind it, their population is significant and yet there are no articles that project them to be some sort of great power.
 

Marliii

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No. I have already explained the reasons before. First of all, the era of Asian tigers is over. A country like BD with TFR of 1.9, ECI rank >100, pathetically low LPU and EoDB rank coupled with less access to credit cannot sustain high growth for long. GSP status will be gone by 2025. Movie induced disruptions will play spoilsport. This is the reason you do not get to read a lot of articles that project BD to be an economic heavyweight despite having high growth for the last few years. Mind it, their population is significant and yet there are no articles that project them to be some sort of great power.
They will also loose their least developed country status too isn't it?
 

gslv markIII

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Here is another example of Sylhet Statistics: ''Bangladesh National Budget''

Sadly tax collection is hard cash, can't manipulate it like BBS pie in the sky projections. :pound:

For FY 2018-19, their FM presented a $55.3 billion budget and estimated that the tax revenue would be $36 billion.

Actual Tax revenue for 2018-19 was just $26.6 billion & Actual budget expenditure was just $46.1 billion.

1626953507823.png


For FY 2019-20, the budget expenditure was to be $61.5 billion budget and the estimated tax revenue was to be $40 billion.

Actual Tax revenue for 2019-20 was an even lower $26.11 billion & Actual budget expenditure was just $49.4 billion. :rofl:

1626953892641.png


And for 2021, even their revised estimate of tax collection for FY 2020-21 is 42% higher than the actual tax collection in 2019-20.

Yeah, 42% growth in tax receipts, quite possible in the pandemic period. :bplease:

Do they really think everyone else is as stupid as them...??? :rofl::rofl:
 

ezsasa

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Here is another example of Sylhet Statistics: ''Bangladesh National Budget''

Sadly tax collection is hard cash, can't manipulate it like BBS pie in the sky projections. :pound:

For FY 2018-19, their FM presented a $55.3 billion budget and estimated that the tax revenue would be $36 billion.

Actual Tax revenue for 2018-19 was just $26.6 billion & Actual budget expenditure was just $46.1 billion.

View attachment 101263


For FY 2019-20, the budget expenditure was to be $61.5 billion budget and the estimated tax revenue was to be $40 billion.

Actual Tax revenue for 2019-20 was an even lower $26.11 billion & Actual budget expenditure was just $49.4 billion. :rofl:

View attachment 101265

And for 2021, even their revised estimate of tax collection for FY 2020-21 is 42% higher than the actual tax collection in 2019-20.

Yeah, 42% growth in tax receipts, quite possible in the pandemic period. :bplease:

Do they really think everyone else is as stupid as them...??? :rofl::rofl:
if tax revenue is not growing, does it mean incomes in BD are not growing?
 

gslv markIII

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Here is another example of Sylhet Statistics: ''Bangladesh National Budget''

Sadly tax collection is hard cash, can't manipulate it like BBS pie in the sky projections. :pound:
There is more...

Bangladesh’s tax-to-gross domestic product ratio has been hovering around 9 per cent for years, with the lowest at 7.9 per cent in the past 2020 fiscal year due to a negative revenue collection growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic fallout.

In FY2019 the ratio declined to 8.9 per cent from 9.4 per cent a year ago.



Tax to GDP ratios decreasing even before the pandemic? I wonder why. Obviously it would be difficult for tax collection to catch up with an inflated GDP figure. @Crazywithmath

They claim their GDP was $322 billion 2019-2020 & $300 billion in 2018-19.

Tax revenue for FY 2018-19: $26.6 billion.
Tax revenue for FY 2019-20: $26.11 billion.

Assuming tax to GDP ratio to be 9.4% in 2018-19 & 9% in 2019-20, GDP for 2018-19 is $282 billion & that for 2020 is $290 billion.

Sounds logical, given that their main industry- export oriented RMG industry had lower export earnings during that FY.

What do you guys think??
 

Crazywithmath

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if tax revenue is not growing, does it mean incomes in BD are not growing?
Going by the pieces of data @gslv markIII posted (finally :hail:) it does seem like that there are instances of massive data fudging. Agencies, like - WB, IMF etc routinely gives bad short term projections ( I can make an entire thread on how their predictions went wrong for India repeatedly in the last 10 years ) but if they are not trusting data given by a member nation there must be reasons for it.
 

ezsasa

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There is more...

Bangladesh’s tax-to-gross domestic product ratio has been hovering around 9 per cent for years, with the lowest at 7.9 per cent in the past 2020 fiscal year due to a negative revenue collection growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic fallout.

In FY2019 the ratio declined to 8.9 per cent from 9.4 per cent a year ago.



Tax to GDP ratios decreasing even before the pandemic? I wonder why. Obviously it would be difficult for tax collection to catch up with an inflated GDP figure. @Crazywithmath

They claim their GDP was $322 billion 2019-2020 & $300 billion in 2018-19.

Tax revenue for FY 2018-19: $26.6 billion.
Tax revenue for FY 2019-20: $26.11 billion.

Assuming tax to GDP ratio to be 9.4% in 2018-19 & 9% in 2019-20, GDP for 2018-19 is $282 billion & that for 2020 is $290 billion.

Sounds logical, given that their main industry- export oriented RMG industry had lower export earnings during that FY.

What do you guys think??
remittances and public spending via loans will have an impact GDP numbers.
 

mushahary

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5. Comilla Credibility: No one believes BD govt data!!!

source: https://en.prothomalo.com/opinion/op-ed/mr-finance-minister-balance-the-sum-please

As it is, the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) indirectly accuses all governments of Bangladesh of data doctoring. For long, World Bank, IMF and many other UN organisations do not consider the government-announced GDP growth as reliable. It is general knowledge that local and foreign institutions think other ‘vital statistics’ the BBS publishes are also increased and decreased at will. This doubt is not without basis. There are several instances of such manipulations:

1. The government shows the total population of Bangladesh as less than actual. As a result, the population growth rate has been decreased to 1.3 per cent. According to UNFPA, the rate is 1.42 per cent.

2. The per capita GDP could be increased artificially if the total nominal GDP is deducted by the ‘smaller number of population’. Recently, the government has claimed that per capita income of Bangladesh has risen from $1909 to $2064 on 30 June 2020.

3. The rate of inflation is shown less so that the real per capita GDP could be increased while calculating real GDP from the nominal GDP.

4. The government inflates the literacy rate, which the UNDP does not think credible enough for the Human Development Index.


6. Myemensingh Magic: How to have 5% GDP growth in an ''export-oriented economy'' during a pandemic when exports are decreasing.

The government further said export revenue in that fiscal was 25 per cent less than target. The amount was $6.86 billion less than the previous year. The import expenditure also declined but a lot less than the export earnings. Then by what magic did all these sector-wise disasters not affect the GDP growth?

Bigger the hole, bigger the fall, i hope it continues for next 5-6 years than the bust.
 

gslv markIII

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Going by the pieces of data @gslv markIII posted (finally :hail:) it does seem like that there are instances of massive data fudging. Agencies, like - WB, IMF etc routinely gives bad short term projections ( I can make an entire thread on how their predictions went wrong for India repeatedly in the last 10 years ) but if they are not trusting data given by a member nation there must be reasons for it.
I had seen that data before man, but I am lazy AF to type long posts. :lol: But antics of swamp creatures provoked me this time to write those posts...
 

gslv markIII

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remittances and public spending via loans will have an impact GDP numbers.
From 2018...

1626957604057.png


The drivers of the country’s economic growth are primarily export and remittances. But the high growth rates in recent years do not match with the sluggish growth in export and remittance, said SANEM.

 

Crazywithmath

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I did dig up a bit. Their data lacks transparency that's all I can say for now. Will try to make a detailed post later. Pakiland does the same; never thought BD also would do the same. I guess there is no one to question their agencies. I mean come on this is fuckin' 2021; a bunch of columnists (not serious economists) are predicting that you would be the next Asian tiger and you cannot even publish your quarterly data nor do you bother about real time economic indicators; your economic growth contradicts high frequency indicators and sector by sector break up reveals contradictory pictures altogether. This is looking like a cruel piece of joke to the people of Bangladesh. You know something is terribly wrong when WB is downgrading data provided by a member nation. IDK man. While it's true that I never subscribed to the idea of BD being the next Asian tiger ( how the hell can one become Asian tiger when one's weighted tariff rates are well in the double digit range and there is hardly any FTA; this sort of Nehruvian protectionism never works ) I at least expected them to maintain moderate growth rate in the post covid world ( despite extremely little economic complexity). After going through all the articles all I can say is they are in dire need of systematic reforms.
 

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