As the U.S. steps back, Vietnamese wonder if China is taking control | Washington Post

Martian

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The average person is unaware of the critical importance of GEOGRAPHY in warfare. Vietnam was able to outlast the United States during the US-Vietnam War.

Doesn't that mean Vietnam has a chance against China in a war? The answer is clearly "no." (see my posted reply below)
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Project Dharma

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The long Washington Post article follows my short comment on the current China-Vietnam situation.
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As the U.S. steps back, Vietnamese wonder if China is taking control | The Washington Post

Bullshit! Murica has the most control of oil across the world. China is like a big tasty fish with prey circling all around. You guys attack Vietnam and all the countries around you who have a bone to pick with you will come down from the hills and eat you for lunch.

We will talk about your bullshit superiority when you evict India from your claimed land. Shame! Can't handle a country with a military budget a fraction of yours and talk about fighting Murica.
 

airtel

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The average person is unaware of the critical importance of GEOGRAPHY in warfare. Vietnam was able to outlast the United States during the US-Vietnam War.

Doesn't that mean Vietnam has a chance against China in a war? The answer is clearly "no." (see my posted reply below)
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and China too Lost war Against Vietnam (They dont teach you that part of History ?) :biggrin2:...............and this time Vietnam is not alone India , Japan , USA will Help them .................You will Again loose this war . China will be divided into 69 small countries :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 

Bornubus

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Viets gave a bloody nose to PLA without US help in 1979
 

Dovah

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@Martian Do your posts on newspaper columns merit a separate thread?

Would it not be more appropriate to link the original article and discuss?
 

hit&run

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All the Chinese psy-ops, lies and propaganda won't help Han Soldiers grow balls. You will be beaten right left and centre.

Keep twisting the facts, you are born to troll. People's Republic of Troll China.
 

thethinker

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Looks like Chinese trolls who live in US are paid extra to not only comment but post proof of their work with images on news sites and forums.

As for geographic concerns by the OP, Chinese should rather be worried about their own demographics. So many Chinese households with an only male child is something Chinese should worry about in event of a war.

Indian military has full blooded volunteers while Chinese are basically conscripts who bid their time wanting to get out of military service.

No wonder they want to escape reality by playing video games all day.
 

Martian

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@Martian Do your posts on newspaper columns merit a separate thread?

Would it not be more appropriate to link the original article and discuss?
The original article is a rehash of expected arguments. There is not much to discuss. Vietnamese think China dominates the South China Sea. Duh! China is a mega-sized country and industrial power. It is absurd to think that Vietnam had the slightest chance of challenging China.

China allows other countries to complain. However, China reserves the right to take action. When you examine the actual military capabilities and options, there was only one outcome.

Thus, my post should take precedence over the Washington Post article. I am discussing new ideas and trying to examine the underlying factors that will determine the military resolution.
 

Martian

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Can the US help Vietnam? The answer is probably "no."

We know the US is not getting involved in a ground war with China. There are reasons for this.

Firstly, during the Korean War (1950-1953), China told the US not to come near the Yalu River. The US ignored China and pushed near the Yalu River. In response, China sent its forces into the Korean War. This resulted in a stalemate around the current DMZ line. China could not win the Korean War, because the US had threatened to use atomic weapons.

Secondly, we jump forward a decade to the Vietnam War (1962-1975). Once again, China told the US not to come near the Chinese border. This time, the US paid attention and did not try to conquer North Vietnam. This compromise precluded the involvement of China's military in the Vietnam War.

In 1967, China had detonated a 3.3-megaton hydrogen bomb. In 1971, China successfully conducted the first flight of its DF-5 ICBM that can carry a five-megaton warhead. Future US threats of nuclear war would not dissuade China from achieving victory in a conventional war, because China also possessed thermonuclear mega-tonnage weaponry.

We move to the present and examine the South China Sea. The US doesn't want China to dominate the South China Sea. Thus, the US provides diplomatic support to Vietnam.

Let's go through the list of possible US intervention in the China-Vietnam dispute.

Question 1: Will the US deploy hundreds of thousands of troops to Vietnam? The answer is probably "no."

It would be unprecedented for the United States to ask its troops to die for a COMMUNIST country. Vietnam is communist and I can't recall an instance where the US was willing to incur massive casualties for a communist country.

Question 2: For the sake of argument, let's say the US wants to send troops to Vietnam, can it do so? The answer is probably "no."

The US Army has downsized from 562,400 (2010) to 476,000 (2017). (Reference: MIlitary Personnel | Global Security)
The US is standing down, not preparing for a major war.

Question 3: Let's just say the US plans to send 250,000 troops to Vietnam, what happens? The result is probably no meaningful military effect.

China has a two-million-man army. 250,000 US troops is only about 1/10th the Chinese troop level. Also, China's troops will be far-better supplied. China has endless freight trains to bring missiles, tanks, howitzers, and ammunition shells to the front lines. US troops have to wait three months for a supply ship to arrive.

Concentrated US troops at a military base would make an easy target for a missile barrage. Gathering 250,000 troops is a terrible idea. Similarly, off-loading supply ships at a Vietnamese port is extremely risky. A missile barrage on a port would be devastating.

In conclusion, a US direct troop intervention is extremely unlikely due to the nature of COMMUNIST VIETNAM. Furthermore, US troop levels are insignificant compared to Chinese troop strengths. The additional problem of under-supplied US troops means the US would probably lose a ground war against China.
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Let's move on to a more interesting question. Would the US provide Vietnam with military supplies?

I think this course of action is extremely unlikely.

Let's look at the problems.

1. How do you off-load supplies in a Vietnamese port? Chinese satellites are watching. If China sees military supplies being off-loaded from a ship or aircraft, they can simply launch a missile barrage to send a message. If China decides to use cluster bombs, a port or airfield would be incapacitated for weeks.

2. How do you transport supplies to Vietnam in the first place? Chinese J-20 stealth fighters patrol the South China Sea. No US cargo airplane can fly through the South China Sea without being interdicted. The F-22 only has a 410 nautical-mile combat-radius. The F-22 is confined to Japan.

There is a similar problem with cargo ships. How do you traverse the South China Sea? The entire Chinese Navy is patrolling the South China Sea. Underwater, Chinese diesel-electric and nuclear submarines prowl the waters. Any foreign ship carrying military cargo is subject to search-and-seizure.

3. There are very few ships that will get past the Chinese gauntlet in the South China Sea. This means the military supplies reaching Vietnam will be negligible.

In conclusion, the US probably won't bother with trying to provide any military supplies to Vietnam. The logistical problems are enormous and the expected benefit is trivial. Vietnam is on its own.
 

Screambowl

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India - China will go into skirmish and US will step back after provoking both :p
 

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