Armenian-Azerbaijan 2020 War

Who will win this conflict


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ezsasa

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"The Kremlin has sought to play down any suggestions it could join the fighting. Russia’s defence pact with Armenia does not cover Nagorno-Karabakh..Yerevan could only request Moscow to deploy troops if there was an attack on undisputed Armenian territory"

 

ezsasa

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No, NATO & CSTO not going to war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Some facts about Article 5:
-there is no "trigger" for NATO's Article 5. Nothing is automatic
- The NAC has to invoke Article 5 unanimously.
Ultimately, it is a political decision
-must comply with NATO's Article 6

 

Destrius

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Ita Was expected for very long.
America has basically chosen to abandon Turkey.
Russia and Turkey will draw closer as a result. Armenia is screwed unless the crisis doesn't escalate which looks increasingly unlikely. Due to Soviet divide and rule bullshit, legally speaking Azerbaijan has does nothing wrong and is only evicting Armenian invaders from it's internationally recognized territory. It'll be really easy for Russia to just ignore that tiny country that's hated by all it's neighbors in exchange for drawing Turkey out of NATO. Iran has also improved ties with Turkey so I don't think Armenia will have any help from them.

I don't like saying this but I don't think Armenia will win this one especially without sea access so I'm changing my vote. I really hope I'm wrong though.

In the long run, expect a Turkey, Russia, Iran axis backed by China and Pakistan against an America, Israel, Arab alliance which India will align with.

EDIT: From @ezsasa's post Russia has abandoned Armenia as predicted. I think it should be clear to everyone that Russia is far from the world power it once was. We should avoid relying on them as much as possible.
 
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omaebakabaka

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America has basically chosen to abandon Turkey.
Russia and Turkey will draw closer as a result. Armenia is screwed unless the crisis doesn't escalate which looks increasingly unlikely. Due to Soviet divide and rule bullshit, legally speaking Azerbaijan has does nothing wrong and is only evicting Armenian invaders from it's internationally recognized territory. It'll be really easy for Russia to just ignore that tiny country that's hated by all it's neighbors in exchange for drawing Turkey out of NATO. Iran has also improved ties with Turkey so I don't think Armenia will have any help from them.

I don't like saying this but I don't think Armenia will win this one especially without sea access so I'm changing my vote. I really hope I'm wrong though.

In the long run, expect a Turkey, Russia, Iran axis backed by China and Pakistan against an America, Israel, Arab alliance which India will align with.

EDIT: From @ezsasa's post Russia has abandoned Armenia as predicted. I think it should be clear to everyone that Russia is far from the world power it once was. We should avoid relying on them as much as possible.
Russia always seems to get attracted to loser gangs. If Putin is really all he is then he would not side with islamic rogue states or CCP wannabe empire
 

omaebakabaka

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Armenians Fear Turkey Is Back to Finish Off the Genocide
Armenia should join US camp and then Georgia will open up and they (US) can create a revolution in azerbaijan and get on Ruskie door step....thats how they should secure their country if Putin abandons
 

rock127

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This also means Turkey is out of NATO inner circle even if it remains a member of it.
I wonder how long this Terrorist Turkey under Khalifa Hitler Erdogan is going to be tolerated in NATO. :dude:

Haven't they learned any lesson from WW's. Terrorist Turkey is enjoying S-400 and few F-35(future orders cancelled though) whose advanced tech might be given to Russian and China already.

Europe is led by sissies today whose defense is literally thrown in the hands of "ladies". The reason Islamists are having their way in Europe.

1601409777513.png
 

FalconZero

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America has basically chosen to abandon Turkey.
Russia and Turkey will draw closer as a result. Armenia is screwed unless the crisis doesn't escalate which looks increasingly unlikely. Due to Soviet divide and rule bullshit, legally speaking Azerbaijan has does nothing wrong and is only evicting Armenian invaders from it's internationally recognized territory. It'll be really easy for Russia to just ignore that tiny country that's hated by all it's neighbors in exchange for drawing Turkey out of NATO. Iran has also improved ties with Turkey so I don't think Armenia will have any help from them.

I don't like saying this but I don't think Armenia will win this one especially without sea access so I'm changing my vote. I really hope I'm wrong though.

In the long run, expect a Turkey, Russia, Iran axis backed by China and Pakistan against an America, Israel, Arab alliance which India will align with.

EDIT: From @ezsasa's post Russia has abandoned Armenia as predicted. I think it should be clear to everyone that Russia is far from the world power it once was. We should avoid relying on them as much as possible.
One question, say Russia abandons Armenia then what prevents Armenia from going into USA camp and if they do that then assuming based on the point stated by another member that Georgia can be used as a pathway for USA to help Armenia, just musing not saying it's possible.
 
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FalconZero

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Turkish Imam demands invasion of Cyprus for the sake of Islam and Mohammed’s aunty

Turks declaring a new holy war against christians??
Boi, we need popcorn and stuff for the drama unfolding in ME, same ol' clusterfuck abrahamic barbarians killing each other....
Considering how big of a maddog erdogan is, it is within the realm of possibilities.
 

omaebakabaka

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I wonder how long this Terrorist Turkey under Khalifa Hitler Erdogan is going to be tolerated in NATO. :dude:

Haven't they learned any lesson from WW's. Terrorist Turkey is enjoying S-400 and few F-35(future orders cancelled though) whose advanced tech might be given to Russian and China already.

Europe is led by sissies today whose defense is literally thrown in the hands of "ladies". The reason Islamists are having their way in Europe.

View attachment 60932
Losing everything formula right there....central and eastern Europeans are the only sanity left in Euro cuckoo land
 

Synergy

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Armenia should join US camp and then Georgia will open up and they (US) can create a revolution in azerbaijan and get on Ruskie door step....thats how they should secure their country if Putin abandons

they will. but I don't think Russia will abandon them. Russia is just waiting for EUs response to avoid any NATO action due to Turkey being involved.

we may see a Russia-China crack there and somewhat reconciliatory action among Rus-US-NATO (though far fetched, but there is a chance).
 

omaebakabaka

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Boi, we need popcorn and stuff for the drama unfolding in ME, same ol' clusterfuck abrahamics barbarians killing each other....
Considering how big of a maddog erdogan is, it is within the realm of possibilities.
Somewhere along the way he will get the war he is looking for and then it unfolds....
 

omaebakabaka

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they will. but I don't think Russia will abandon them. Russia is just waiting for EUs response to avoid any NATO action due to Turkey being involved.

we may see a Russia-China crack there and somewhat reconciliatory action among Rus-US-NATO (though far fetched, but there is a chance).
ya, they lose armenia they lose their underbelly. Armenia is like a center square on that chess board.
 

Destrius

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One question, say Russia abandons Armenia then what prevents Armenia from going into USA camp and if they do that then assuming based on the point stated by another member that Georgia can be used as a pathway for USA to help Armenia, just musing not saying it's possible.
1200px-Caucasus_regions_map2.png


It's almost impossible for the West to support Armenia. Without sea access, Armenia is dependent on its neighbors. Turkey and Azerbaijan are at war with Armenia. Iran and Russia are neutral but will turn hostile if Armenia turns to the West. The only option left is Georgia which dislikes but doesn't hate Armenia. See Abkhazia and South Ossetia? That is land Russia conquered from Georgia last time Georgia aligned with the West in 2008. So Georgia will do its best to avoid a repeat of that.
 

omaebakabaka

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View attachment 60933

It's almost impossible for the West to support Armenia. Without sea access, Armenia is dependent on its neighbors. Turkey and Azerbaijan are at war with Armenia. Iran and Russia are neutral but will turn hostile if Armenia turns to the West. The only option left is Georgia which dislikes but doesn't hate Armenia. See Abkhazia and South Ossetia? That is land Russia conquered from Georgia last time Georgia aligned with the West in 2008. So Georgia will do it's best to avoid a repeat of that.
When Ukraine was possible, Armenia via Georgia is totally possible if Armenia gets the short side of the stick in this flare up and they hedge that way. May be Russia is punishing for the stunt by PM during that revolution but he was not anti-Russia and just teaching him a bit of lesson....
 

FalconZero

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View attachment 60933

It's almost impossible for the West to support Armenia. Without sea access, Armenia is dependent on its neighbors. Turkey and Azerbaijan are at war with Armenia. Iran and Russia are neutral but will turn hostile if Armenia turns to the West. The only option left is Georgia which dislikes but doesn't hate Armenia. See Abkhazia and South Ossetia? That is land Russia conquered from Georgia last time Georgia aligned with the West in 2008. So Georgia will do its best to avoid a repeat of that.
Man, I thought maybe through black sea-georgia route usa+nato countries could supply few stuff to Armenia considering the bad relationship between Georgia and Russia but I guess Armenia is sandwiched without much choice. It was just a thought tbh.
Last time I read that Russia was supplying arms and equipment to Armenia via Iran dunno what happened to that, maybe they are pretending to be neutral to avoid any conflict with NATO or involvement of them. There's such delicate balance in ME, a bit of chance and things can blow up into multiple points of conflicts ngl.
I guess this is the fight that Armenia has to fight alone without much help, I hope they come out as the winner for the time being they have shown better preparedness and intent than azeri clowns....
 

Destrius

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When Ukraine was possible, Armenia via Georgia is totally possible if Armenia gets the short side of the stick in this flare up and they hedge that way. May be Russia is punishing for the stunt by PM during that revolution but he was not anti-Russia and just teaching him a bit of lesson....
For the West to support Armenia in a meaningful way will require a lot of effort with little guarantee of success. I just don't see the West supporting a country that is much closer to Russia and part of CSTO. Armenia also isn't strategically significant for the West. I'm sure they want to punish Turkey but they will probably do so in a different battlefield.
 

omaebakabaka

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For the West to support Armenia in a meaningful way will require a lot of effort with little guarantee of success. I just don't see the West supporting a country that is much closer to Russia and part of CSTO. Armenia also isn't strategically significant for the West. I'm sure they want to punish Turkey but they will probably do so in a different battlefield.
Armenia has only two choices Russia or US. They are in worse location than India as far as neighbors are concerned. If Russia does nothing then I am sure they will try the US route and the US is already committed to Georgia, so it is not a stretch at all considering the route is pretty clear and both are Christian nations of sort and then US always wants to get to Azerbaijan to find a route to caspian see and also surround Iran. Supplies can come in from Bulgaria, Romania and so on without crossing bosphorous

There isn't a choice for Armenian's, Iran is an untouchable and Islamic too to take help. So mostly they will keep with Russia but depends on how bad it gets and how Armenians opinion changes about Russia.

To be honest, it is not that bad so far, they lost one aircraft and some heavy stuff but in the end UN ceasefire may come in and over time they will probably spend more on air power and other stuff and emerge stronger. I think we should know Russias plan after UN meeting today.
 

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