Armenian-Azerbaijan 2020 War

Who will win this conflict


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Waanar

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Exactly Armenia is in difficult geographical as well as geopolitical battle. Nato support needs land air or sea corridor. Even for a moment we assume if NATO decides to support Armenia on Christian brotherhood basis, where shall they establish a logistical corridor to Armenia.
US would LOVE to use Armenia as a bargaining chip against the insolent Turkey but there's another angle everyone is ignoring here and a reason why Iran is willing to strike it's Shiite "brothers" in Azerbaijan for "Christian" Armenia. Northern Iran has a fairly large ethnic Azerbaijani population and Iran knows once Azerbaijan shows up on it's borders, US and Israel will prod Azerbaijan to expand into Iranian territory by fueling separatist insurgencies there. US, Israel and Azerbaijan share good relations. Won't be surprising to see US or even Israeli bases on Iranian border then.
Armenia is the low hanging fruit in this endeavour and I'm yet to see any reason why Armenia will survive this time other than maybe the very unlikely scenario of Iran sending it's military into an expeditionary war (which it is ill-equipped for).

Iran's intelligence agencies are it's strong point, not the Artesh.
 

rone

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Armenian army to raise two artillery brigades with Indian supplied Bharat Forge 155mm artillery guns by 2025.

I mean if this 155mm gun deal meant for Armenia then if we donate our first 16 IOC 2 mk1 and make an extra order for 40 additional mk1a Gill the gap left by IOC 2 ones for IAF, also it will give boost in overall Indian Military industrial complex much needed facelift and get our weapons get battle tested in return
 

AnantS

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US would LOVE to use Armenia as a bargaining chip against the insolent Turkey but there's another angle everyone is ignoring here and a reason why Iran is willing to strike it's Shiite "brothers" in Azerbaijan for "Christian" Armenia. Northern Iran has a fairly large ethnic Azerbaijani population and Iran knows once Azerbaijan shows up on it's borders, US and Israel will prod Azerbaijan to expand into Iranian territory by fueling separatist insurgencies there. US, Israel and Azerbaijan share good relations. Won't be surprising to see US or even Israeli bases on Iranian border then.
Armenia is the low hanging fruit in this endeavour and I'm yet to see any reason why Armenia will survive this time other than maybe the very unlikely scenario of Iran sending it's military into an expeditionary war (which it is ill-equipped for).

Iran's intelligence agencies are it's strong point, not the Artesh.
So Armenia's neighbors:
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Iran
Turkey

Georgia, Israel, Turkey sides with Azerbaijan
Iran sides with Armenia.

Tough luck for Armenia. nor Russia nor US shall be doing anything. Its reflected in how west ignored Azzerbaijani war crimes in total.
 

kamaal

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I mean if this 155mm gun deal meant for Armenia then if we donate our first 16 IOC 2 mk1 and make an extra order for 40 additional mk1a Gill the gap left by IOC 2 ones for IAF, also it will give boost in overall Indian Military industrial complex much needed facelift and get our weapons get battle tested in return
Thats too ambitious brother, they can't afford $ 45 million jet. What they need is cheaper and smart weapon systems. They need loitering weapons, drones, anti drone systems, SAMs and some Prahar ballistic missiles. They need to inflict some damage on Azerbaijan first and show that they can't hold on to the captured land for long.
Artillery systems are a good buy to cover 40 km of range and will force the enemy to think before coming close to the border.
It's time for India to train the Armenian defense forces.
 

shade

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They really don't have many options. Iran cooperates with them with minor benefits compared to what a benevolent Europe/NATO brigade would bring. Also given that Armenia is a democracy and that there is a strong Armenian lobby in the West, they will stand to gain more.

That being said, they need to offer something more than just their location to NATO in order to reap rewards. Given how most of Europe is going down the drain, it's a matter of time before the Turk-Azeri fascists plunder Armenia. Also, Pakistan could get involved the way it did in 2020 by sending its troops secretly.
There's nothing to plunder in Armenia except i guess the women.
Both the Toorkis bros want a direct land border, that is Turki and Azeri, they also want the Armenians dead and gone.
Only country getting intense burns from this is Iran because of their Azeri minority.
 

Tshering22

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There's nothing to plunder in Armenia except i guess the women.
Both the Toorkis bros want a direct land border, that is Turki and Azeri, they also want the Armenians dead and gone.
Only country getting intense burns from this is Iran because of their Azeri minority.
I know. Iran has a fungible product that it can sell no matter what and sustain a moderate economy in the long run. Azerbaijan is pretty much the same. Turkish inflation is out of control but somehow they are not drowning, and still have a pretty decent-sized economy.

Armenia is meanwhile like the Kerala/Punjab of Eurasia - it is highly reliant on agriculture, tourism, diaspora remittances or a combination of these three. INSTC is a minor relief but they need to find ways to sustain themselves and grow. The Turkic hordes will end them if the don't.
 

Love Charger

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Based on this why would we go for towed artillery when we can do with this truck mounted gun? It would solve most logistic issues that come with towed artillery.
A artillery guns range depends on caliber, type of round and charge
This is a 155 /39 mm gun which is good , given the type of ammo ofb produces, this gun will use same ammo as towed atags .
Although it can only use zone 5 level of charge , hence its range is limited compared to atags , which is 155 /52 mm gun and uses zone 7 charge .
As for your suggestion, you are right a mounted gun system of 155 / 52 mm can compete with atags on equal footing .
The range of erfb bb shell is 38 kilometres, but atags fired it till 48 kilometres.
In principle we can completely remove the towed arty sytsmes but in practice our army thinks otherwise .
Its field artillery plan or frap was conceived after kargil war , so you must consider it .
I dont think its been updated
 

Arjun Mk1A

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Based on this why would we go for towed artillery when we can do with this truck mounted gun? It would solve most logistic issues that come with towed artillery.
Don't know. From maintenance perspective SPH may be costlier since you need to maintain the vehicle compared to tow ones where you can concentrate on Artillery only. Also, SPH have lot of automation compared to Towed one like D-30 is fully mechanical thus it will extremely be easy to maintain compared to SPH.
 

shade

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I know. Iran has a fungible product that it can sell no matter what and sustain a moderate economy in the long run. Azerbaijan is pretty much the same. Turkish inflation is out of control but somehow they are not drowning, and still have a pretty decent-sized economy.

Armenia is meanwhile like the Kerala/Punjab of Eurasia - it is highly reliant on agriculture, tourism, diaspora remittances or a combination of these three. INSTC is a minor relief but they need to find ways to sustain themselves and grow. The Turkic hordes will end them if the don't.
It's inevitable, the Greeks are the next, there are more Greeks and Armenians in diaspora form than actually living within their countries btw.
You will be seeing an outflow of skilled and young folks from these two countries in the coming decades, and that's what will do them in actually.
Demography is Destiny.

The clock for these two started Ticking almost a 1000 years back, for the Greeks it was with the Arab Caliphate grabbing all their territories, and for the Armenians it was the Seljuq Turkic invasion.

Our time will come too in the centuries ahead, a slow death if we don't purge the librandu infestation of our system.
Once that is done you can easily solve the problem of domestic deenis and Paki-Bangla.
 

Dark Sorrow

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Based on this why would we go for towed artillery when we can do with this truck mounted gun? It would solve most logistic issues that come with towed artillery.
Availability rate of truck mounted gun much less compared to towed artillery.
Towed artillery like ATAGS can fire much more rounds than truck mounted gun before they have to be put in maintenance.
For maintenance truck mounted gun one needs more complicated and specialized facility than towed artillery.
ATAGS also have more range by around 10-15 km with current generation of ammunition.
Finally we come to cost. One can buy around 2-3 ATAGS in cost of one truck mounted gun.
Don't know for sure but I ATAGS has more automation compared to truck mounted gun. **Citation needed
 

Dark Sorrow

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Don't know. From maintenance perspective SPH may be costlier since you need to maintain the vehicle compared to tow ones where you can concentrate on Artillery only. Also, SPH have lot of automation compared to Towed one like D-30 is fully mechanical thus it will extremely be easy to maintain compared to SPH.
I think in this case ATAGS has more automation compared to truck mounted artillery.
This is mainly due to space/volume constraint.
But I could be wrong can someone confirm this.
 

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