ADA Tejas (LCA) News and Discussions

[TPFscopes]

Ajay shukla tentative plan to deliver by 2024-25 is good but the question is whether HAL can produce another 7(SP-6 delivered) by 31st Mar 2018 and keep building production capacity in time. There will be most likely slippage this year .

HAL has good opportunity to deliver better than expected and bury SE aircraft tender by GOI. Every slippage is one more excuse for importing latest and greatest AC. More orders will only come if HAL keeps its word on completing Mk1A and delivering AC's on schedule.

Tejas production schedule
2017-18 8 (IOC standard)
2018-19 10 ...

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/

HAL intentionally downgrade the Production rate just to keep running its lines , until the FOC will get achieved.

As LCA got FOC , you'll be able to see a full fledged Production.

 

[mayfair]

9 months to build a jet, by this capacity when will we replace all the junk fighters from service?
We need atleast 20-25 each year to project power.
Chinese are mass producing the J-10 just like cars.

Read the news report again it says

"16 Tejas Mark 1As each year from 2019-20 onwards."

Once the production and integration capability matures, the production can be ramped up to 20-25 a year..I suspect that may happen Mark II onwards..

Learn to walk before we run?

 

[abingdonboy]

Ajay shukla tentative plan to deliver by 2024-25 is good but the question is whether HAL can produce another 7(SP-6 delivered) by 31st Mar 2018 and keep building production capacity in time. There will be most likely slippage this year .

HAL has good opportunity to deliver better than expected and bury SE aircraft tender by GOI. Every slippage is one more excuse for importing latest and greatest AC. More orders will only come if HAL keeps its word on completing Mk1A and delivering AC's on schedule.

Tejas production schedule
2017-18 8 (IOC standard)
2018-19 10 ...

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/

SP-5 will be delivered in a few weeks so 6 more to be delivered in the next 6 months is perfectly doable, we know that all SPs up to SP-11 are on the jig since late 2016, with the 11 month production cycle that means there are many SPs coming to the end of their production in the near future.

There's little reason HAL won't be able to meet their target for 2017-18, they have ramped up nicely and are continuing to refine their processes.

Read the news report again it says

"16 Tejas Mark 1As each year from 2019-20 onwards."

Once the production and integration capability matures, the production can be ramped up to 20-25 a year..I suspect that may happen Mark II onwards..

Learn to walk before we run?

Like I said, the biggest restriction on a greater production capacity is a lack of orders.

I really wish the GoI had forced the IAF to accept another 50-60 MK.1As so that HAL could ramp up production >22/year from 2019, the only reason they have capped it at 16/year is because only 83 MK.1A have been commited to by the IAF.

Honestly how can anyone entertain this BS SE jet deal when the IAF are choosing not to order more MK.1As? They can hardly complain about a "SQN strength depletion" when they aren't aggresively pushing every avenue for a solution.

I hope HAL does what it has promised and makes the SE jet untenable come 2020.

For the price of 1 F-16 Blk.70 you can get 2 LCA Mk.1As.

The IAF really will be the imported air force if it pursues the F-16 or Gripen at the cost of the LCA, the MK.2 at least will be almost identical in performance to the Gripen E, just give ADA/HAL time and in the meantime buy more MK.1A- what's the justification for the F-16 or Gripen?

 

[IndianHawk]

From 2019 iaf will be receiving 16lca + 8 rafale + last batch of su30. This might full iaf induction capacity which includes training team , infrastructure for new squadron, doctrine development etc .

These Factors also need to be accounted for .

 

[abingdonboy]

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[abingdonboy]

From 2019 iaf will be receiving 16lca + 8 rafale + last batch of su30. This might full iaf induction capacity which includes training team , infrastructure for new squadron, doctrine development etc .

These Factors also need to be accounted for .

MKI production will continue until 2024/5 at least.

 

[IndianHawk]

MKI production will continue until 2024/5 at least.

Hope so too!!
But additional orders are yet to be formalized . Without them su30 line will end in 2020.

 

[abingdonboy]

Hope so too!!
But additional orders are yet to be formalized . Without them su30 line will end in 2020.

I seriously doubt the GoI/HAL/IAF/MOD will allow the Nasik production unit to shut down

1) How can the GoI possibly allow it politically?
2) How can the IAF cry "fighter shortage" and then allow one of the few fighter production lines in India to cease?
3) HAL has a strong voice inside the MoD, they won't want to see jobs lost
4) IF the FGFA is coming it will only be coming in the mid-2020s (certainly not before 2025) and it will take over the MKI line, HAL can't afford to let the Nasik line shut and skills be lost 5-6 years before FGFA production commences.

 

[IndianHawk]

I seriously doubt the GoI/HAL/IAF/MOD will allow the Nasik production unit to shut down

1) How can the GoI possibly allow it politically?
2) How can the IAF cry "fighter shortage" and then allow one of the few fighter production lines in India to cease?
3) HAL has a strong voice inside the MoD, they won't want to see jobs lost
4) IF the FGFA is coming it will only be coming in the mid-2020s (certainly not before 2025) and it will take over the MKI line, HAL can't afford to let the Nasik line shut and skills be lost 5-6 years before FGFA production commences.

Probably line won't be shut as there is chance of 40 additional units to be ordered. Then there is program for upgrade for su30mki.

But ordering more su30 will make iaf top heavy in near future.
Fighter jet lines are highly automated not much of a political issue.

Falling SQ numbers need to be filled with single engine fighters to keep operational expenses minimum. More su30 while very potent are very expensive to operate and require heavy maintenance.

But 40 more are almost certain to come. The only caveat is that govt might decide to start upgrading su30 simultaneously and demand that 40new must already be at upgrade standard.(new engine, aesa radar etc.)

 

[mayfair]

I suspect the imported single engine fighter programme is all but dead. Trump and Lockheed are firm that production and know how will not be transferred to India. That kills the whole Make in India aspect of it.

I agree with @abingdonboy that more Mk1A orders need to be places. Maybe once HAL starts producing 16 a year, follow up orders will be placed and IAF could be placated by dangling the offer of more Rafales..

 

[abingdonboy]

Probably line won't be shut as there is chance of 40 additional units to be ordered.

The MKI fleet was always going to touch around 320-340 units.

Then there is program for upgrade for su30mki.

This can/will be done seperately and doesn't need a full production line in order to happen, just look at the case of the Hawk; HAL is upgrading all IAF Hawks to "Hawk-I" whilst at the same time preparing the current Hawk production line to become the second LCA production line.

But ordering more su30 will make iaf top heavy in near future.

lol bro, "top heavy" is some pure propoganda spread by the likes of SAAB and Lockhead Martin.

Fighter jet lines are highly automated not much of a political issue.

I disagree, the eroding of the IAF's SQN strength has very much become a political issue, especially under the NDA that has said they will fix it.

 

[abingdonboy]

I suspect the imported single engine fighter programme is all but dead. Trump and Lockheed are firm that production and know how will not be transferred to India. That kills the whole Make in India aspect of it.

I hope you're right bro, common sense would say the SE deal is totally dead but it keeps swirling around ominously.

The ONLY new 4.5 gen fighters the IAF should buy are the LCA and Rafale, anything else is simply a waste of money.

 

[mayfair]

I hope you're right bro, common sense would say the SE deal is totally dead but it keeps swirling around ominously.

So do turd and bath water before being flushed down the drain for good. I hope this applies to MII SE procurement plans. But noise on this issue has dimmed substantially over the past few months..we are hearing more about FGFA and Project-75(I) than this. Welcome development in my opinion..

I believe there will be follow on orders for Rafale, but finding the money will be the a problem. IA and IN will not be happy if IAF takes away a huge chunk of CAPEX...

We need to up the defence budget and especially CAPEX to at least 2.5% of the GDP..

 

[abingdonboy]

So do turd and bath water before being flushed down the drain for good. I hope this applies to MII SE procurement plans. But noise on this issue has dimmed substantially over the past few months..we are hearing more about FGFA and Project-75(I) than this. Welcome development in my opinion..

Well that's because Parrikar cam up with the SE jet deal for whatever reason.

With Jaitley as part time DM there is very very little churning in the MOD these days and so the next 18 months are likely to be a total write off as far as defence deals are concerned which will actually be a posistive for the LCA as the SE jet deal will be totally pointless after 2020.

I believe there will be follow on orders for Rafale, but finding the money will be the a problem. IA and IN will not be happy if IAF takes away a huge chunk of CAPEX...

Money isn't a problem, India is spending close to $400bn on defence over just the next 5 years and the Rafales will be paid off over at least 7 years (ie right up until 2030 when the annual defence budget will be >$110b) and there is no precedent for one service's procurements being financed via another service's budget- the allocations are set in stone and vary rarely year on year.

The fact is, thanks to the deal alreadt signed, the Rafale is the most cost effective solution unless the GoI/MoD/IAF wants to pay $2bn just to set up infrastructure for the F-16/Gripen and to customise it for Indian service. This is how much India has paid for the Rafale's infrastructure/training/customisations, it would be absurd to pay this again just to get another imported jet- that enourmous ammount could pay for more than a SQN of Rafales or 2-3 SQNs of LCA.


I also believe that thanks to an increased tax base and higher economic growth begining in 2018-19 there will be ample funds with the govt to cover any extra costs BUT they seem reluctant to give anything but the bare minimum to the MoD- already India is spending the least (relative to GDP) it has since 1962 at 1.56% of GDP. Since 2013-14 the defence budget has been slowly shrinking (relative to GDP) and there seems little prospect that this will change in the near future.

Ideally the Govt would commit to a fixed 2% of GDP defence budget for just the next 10 years so as to truly modernise the services inside and out, the last few decades have really taken a toll on the military and there is a LOT that needs to be done.

 

[TPFscopes]

MKI production will continue until 2024/5 at least.

As of now (February'17), Nasik production line has a queue for only 61 Su-30MKIs. And probably all su-30mki will be delivered by mid 2020.

One of my friend at HAL, Nasik told me that officials are engaged to plan the modification of the facility for FGFA Production but nothing on Ground till now.

 

[TPFscopes]

Probably line won't be shut as there is chance of 40 additional units to be ordered. Then there is program for upgrade for su30mki.


But 40 more are almost certain to come. The only caveat is that govt might decide to start upgrading su30 simultaneously and demand that 40new must already be at upgrade standard.(new engine, aesa radar etc.)

40 more Su-30MKIs with required modifications of Brahmos launch Capabilities are under consideration. After successful launch trials , GoI may place the order. And those jets will be operated by SFC instead of IAF. (As per the current info available to me)

Other than these specialised Su-30MKI s, no more orders under consideration.

 

[Khagesh]

Money is for weapons imports or for indigenous R&D?

Make your choices Deshbhakton.

 

[Superdefender]

[I have qouted here a small piece from the article ''India @70: How Safe Our Sky Is? Senior Defence Journalist Mukesh Kaushik Detailed Analysis'' by DefenceAviationPost on August 15, 2017.]

''To enhance the force level, the IAF has contracted 272 Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft out of which 213 Su-30 MKI have been delivered till date and the balance are likely to be delivered by 2020.''


There is a debatable issue regarding the depleting fighter squadron strength. The sanctioned strength of fighter squadrons was determined decades ago and there has been, as such, no reassessment of the force level.
Well known defence blogger Shiv Aroor calls it “legacy strength” and he has valid reasons for the same.
“The reason I say ‘legacy’ is because that number, defined many decades ago, doesn’t quite take into account higher performance jets eroding the need for larger numbers. You’re inviting problems if the planning-related bean count involves both MiG-21s and Su-30MkIs in the same sweep. It’s a bit of slippery slope,” he says, arguing that the ‘no replacement for numbers’ theory has some good arguments, but many bad ones — not least inventory and cost.
“Many of the IAF’s logistics and planning issues probably have a road leading to that inescapable tether around its sanctioned squadron strength. I’ve suggested in the past that the indigenous LCA Tejas should be inducted in large numbers to build an eco-system around the platform and help speed up the replacement of MiG-21 squadrons,” said Aroor.

Source Link: http://defenceaviationpost.com/india-70-safe-sky/

 

[TPFscopes]

Money is for weapons imports or for indigenous R&D?

Make your choices Deshbhakton.

Its for imports and R&D but not reserved for SCAMS.

Isn't it?

 

[Flame Thrower]

We have inducted LCAs over a year ago. Any info on how they performed in their first year.

I understand that only 5 are operational, and one of them were inducted less than two months ago.

But if there is any bits of info on how LCA did it's first year would be great.