Ok, now how many of you think that this SOP-18 is just a way to seek extra time for the MOD+ADA+HAL vs. IAF match.
1) All parties know that HAL has delivered zilch on much simpler IJT, so such extensive changes as MK-1A seem far fetched. If these were small changes then ADA would have made them already. Moreover all parties know that HAL has not delivered on its promised LCA-IOC either (not getting into the reasons).
2) All parties know that HAL has invested in this project such that it will eventually be able to make 16 odd LCA per annum of whatever type. To maintain inventory of say 120 LCA your production program must produce significantly more.
3) All parties know that there is no formal stop to the LCA Mk-2.
4) MOD knows that they can stone-wall IAF demands for imports for 'urgent' needs almost for ever (enough options available). While IAF knows that the only way they will get to import is when another UPA-3 type sarkar returns. MOD would like the most number of orders for an LCA like jet to flow to Indian entities (including HAL). IAF would like the most number of LCA like jets to be imported. So MOD needs to force HAL to keep quite till it delivers on 40 already ordered by which time SOP-18 would be history and a new assessment can be made. IAF knows that the last chance for burying LCA is in 2019 general elections if UPA type confusion returns.
My hunch, LCA Mk-1A will not come in, ever. LCA Mk-2 is very much on, with people sourced from Indian Navy essentially deciding what the IAF should eventually get in concert with MOD.
LCA Mk-3 perhaps may not happen except as a download of AMCA learnings into the LCA project. Longer term this could be like the way say F-16 and F-15 benefited from the R&D done for F-22 and F-35.
1) All parties know that HAL has delivered zilch on much simpler IJT, so such extensive changes as MK-1A seem far fetched. If these were small changes then ADA would have made them already. Moreover all parties know that HAL has not delivered on its promised LCA-IOC either (not getting into the reasons).
2) All parties know that HAL has invested in this project such that it will eventually be able to make 16 odd LCA per annum of whatever type. To maintain inventory of say 120 LCA your production program must produce significantly more.
3) All parties know that there is no formal stop to the LCA Mk-2.
4) MOD knows that they can stone-wall IAF demands for imports for 'urgent' needs almost for ever (enough options available). While IAF knows that the only way they will get to import is when another UPA-3 type sarkar returns. MOD would like the most number of orders for an LCA like jet to flow to Indian entities (including HAL). IAF would like the most number of LCA like jets to be imported. So MOD needs to force HAL to keep quite till it delivers on 40 already ordered by which time SOP-18 would be history and a new assessment can be made. IAF knows that the last chance for burying LCA is in 2019 general elections if UPA type confusion returns.
My hunch, LCA Mk-1A will not come in, ever. LCA Mk-2 is very much on, with people sourced from Indian Navy essentially deciding what the IAF should eventually get in concert with MOD.
LCA Mk-3 perhaps may not happen except as a download of AMCA learnings into the LCA project. Longer term this could be like the way say F-16 and F-15 benefited from the R&D done for F-22 and F-35.