A China-Iran Bilateral Deal: Costs All Around

desicanuk

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Beijing sees an opportunity in Tehran’s international isolation – but may not realise the tangle it is entering.

By Jeffrey Payne Published 2 Sep 2020



Rumors circling about an impending major partnership between China and Iran seem to be accurate. A leaked draft of the agreement published by the New York Times in July indicates that it would involve a deep economic partnership which would open the door for strategic action. Ample speculation about the deal followed the leak. It is fair to say that this agreement would have substantial geopolitical consequences for the Middle East and the Indian Ocean region. All regional actors would suffer political costs, directly or indirectly.

The leaked document details a US$400 billion agreement that will serve as an economic lifeline for Iran, with investments in energy, infrastructure, telecommunications and the tech sector, as well as arms sales. Iran gets a massive injection of capital and a sophisticated development supply chain to invigorate the economy. China gets a guaranteed supply of Iranian natural resources for a premium price for 25 years, and fewer impediments to its own strategic interests.

The financial scale of the reported deal certainly is disproportionate to other regional Chinese investments, but not unusual given China’s pledges for other premier overseas investments. For its part, Iran has denied the truth of the leak and argues that the agreement’s scale is misinterpreted, but conversations within Iran itself suggest the document is valid.

China will promote this partnership as a new part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but like most of the BRI, the agreement emerged in an ad hoc manner. Beijing saw opportunity in Iran’s international isolation, creating circumstances where Tehran may acquiesce to conditions it would traditionally reject, such as allowing a long-term preferred price for oil and natural gas and Chinese military units and state owned enterprise personnel to be active within strategic areas of the country.

One strategic location mentioned in the document is the Jask port, located just outside the Strait of Hormuz. This would be a focal point of infrastructure development, helping Iran (and China) to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for some energy exports. Upgrading the port could also help further expand Iranian capabilities to threaten access to the Strait.

The agreement could also lend to an increased frequency of bilateral military training and exercises, greater cooperation in weapon systems development, and more frequent information sharing. The detailed nature of the document indicates that increased training and exercises would be highly likely. Weapon systems development is a possible objective in the long-term, but the default starting point would be to expand on previous arms sales. Institutionalised information sharing regarding non-traditional threats is a remote possibility, depending upon progress in the comprehensive relationship.

Beijing is confident that it can navigate the regional political fallout of the deal by reminding countries competing with Iran that they are also major economic partners with China. China has heavily invested in both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and positioned itself as a key facilitator of the economic diversification of both countries. China has so far navigated the politics of the Levant well enough to build economic ties with Israel, another key regional actor that would be concerned with any agreement.


For the United States, this agreement provides further evidence of China’s objective to influence the wider Indian Ocean region, encouraging Washington to reshape how it engages with countries in the region. Despite its strategic aspects, China’s narrative of economic partnership and mutual prosperity is not obviously discarded by the Iran agreement, China will paint the US as forcing the region to pick a side between Beijing and Washington. The US will need to be diplomatically adept in communicating its concerns throughout the region.

The costs for India are more immediate. New Delhi’s interests in Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman are not directly impeded, but Iran is frustrated by Indian hesitation to deepen economic ties. New Delhi seeks to avoid international sanctions and moves carefully when vetting investment in Iran. The Chabahar to Zahedan railway project provides insight into both countries’ feelings towards the other. Greater involvement by China in Iran may or may not make India less important, but given recent tensions and Pakistan-China ties, greater coordination with China by Iran would be strategically disadvantageous for India.

Russia, while also a patron of Iran, does not avoid costs. The deal will fuel speculation that Moscow and Beijing will form a partnership to dominate continental Asia. Yet there is no evidence that Beijing coordinated with Moscow on the deal. Vladimir Putin will not be opposed to one of its key partners in the Middle East receiving a lifeline.

But the deal does signal that Russia remains a niche partner and that its comprehensive power is dwarfed by Beijing. Beijing and Moscow may often agree, but this agreement does not signal the imminent arrival of a new Asian axis.

Beijing appears to be on the cusp of creating a geopolitical win for itself. It will have to navigate some regional fears about the agreement, and it will have to address domestic concerns within Iran, but such complications are unlikely to incur major political cost.

The agreement will also probably create long-term problems for China that are not easily addressed. It provides more fuel to the narrative that Beijing seeks global influence according to its own rules. The political nature of the agreement also undermines Beijing’s regional economic messages. It could entangle Beijing in regional politics, in which it has little skill, but something with which its primary geopolitical competitors have ample experience.

Beijing may not have thought through the consequences of the region seeing China as more than a reliable economic partner.


 

Tshering22

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Iranians disagree with the deal. According to various OSINT reports, there is also a deal of Iran leasing islands to China for oil exploration and other maritime activities, though no reports of military agreements have come to surface. Naturally, with PLAN becoming the biggest navy in the world, they will want to have a base in Iran's Kish Island, due to their proximity to the oil supplying countries of the Gulf. By using Gwadar and Kish as ports, they will be able to keep "an eye" on our naval activities, though not much can come from a logistical perspective.
 

shade

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The Hans cannot handle the Farsis, actually nobody can, They will probably end up getting their hands burnt just like Russia.
Iran says a lot of things, does other things, and in the end games every other country for their own interests.
Good luck to the Hans
 

desicanuk

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The Hans cannot handle the Farsis, actually nobody can, They will probably end up getting their hands burnt just like Russia.
Iran says a lot of things, does other things, and in the end games every other country for their own interests.
Good luck to the Hans
It would be a serious error on our part to underestimate the Han.This is what has gotten us in to a mess we are in.
 

KurtisBrian

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So the rumors were true. the 25 year $400 billion deal was a real thing and now it is actually signed.


Makes me believe that the rumors of Nigeria buying 40 more JF-17 jets from Pakistan are also probably true. Makes a lot of sense. Nigerians remit huge amounts of money similar to how Indians do. So Nigeria must have lots of money. Pakistan and Nigeria share major religion and flag colors (to some it means nothing but to me a flag represents a Lord's colors thus who the people are).
 
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Makes me believe that the rumors of Nigeria buying 40 more JF-17 jets from Pakistan are also probably true.
JF-17 is a low cost fighter and Nigeria is a very poor country with dwindling economy.

Any country with low budget will budget will find $20 millions 3-4g fighter an attractive thing. It has nothing to do with Islam.
 
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KurtisBrian

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JF-17 is a low cost fighter and Nigeria is poor country and dwindling economy.

Any country with low budget will budget will find $20 millions 3-4g fighter an attractive thing. It has nothing to do with Islam.
Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.

btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
 

HawkisRight

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Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.

btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
U sir are an absolute legend..take my salute master :clap2: Ur comments are a pure genius..
 

Lost user

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Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.

btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
Dear Muzzie/ Khali khopdi in the West,
Your cousins in Pakistan, are again at IMF doorstep with their begging bowl..
By the way, Indian total debt to GDP RATIO ( household + Government + Non financial corporate + financial ) is much lower than US or Canada..
 

SUPERPOWER

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Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.

btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
When have you dreamed last time of Tomatos..
 
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Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Iran tossed India because China provided them a better deal than India just as Sheikhs or Arab sided with India because its presence in IOR. India is a secular regime, China is an antireligious country which is exceptionally antipathic towards Islam. They are being used to balance American influence.

There are really few states (mostly failed or in process in becoming so) and even they bend their preferences because of interests.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.
Religion doesn't play an significant role in international politics, at least not as a force for a century.

Definition of religion in India and west aren't even same. In India, not belief system but Dharma (way of life and law of universe) is the term. Many Indian religions either don't have God or disregard theism/atheism.
btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
Nigeria's per capita and median wealth is just a fraction of India. It's population growth is way way higher than it's GDP growth.

It's industries are weaker and decades backward even poor countries like Bangladesh. It's GDP per capita is super fluctuating and depends upon prices of oil solely. 50% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty (3% of Indians and 1% of Pakistanis), 90% below what Indian middle class earns.

The external GDP generated by foreign refineries in Nigeria doesn't reflect country's economic landscape. It's citizens are among poorest in world, even worse than Afghanistan and Somalia.
 

Rassil Krishnan

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Keeping with the thread: Iran Muslims just tossed Indian Hindus aside in favor of China who is allied with Pakistani Muslims.
Religion has played a HUGE part in the history of India and the lives of Indians. Of course religion will play a similarly HUGE role in the lives of everyone else.

btw Nigeria isn't poor. It just has almost no debt and a lesser infrastructure burden. Nigeria remits much more per capita than India and has a higher nominal GDP per capita than India. If Nigerians loaded up on hundreds of billions in debt they too could pretend to be wealthy or buy up lands/buildings/corporations in foreign lands where people try to not live on credit.
are you talking about the same nigeria that is growing its population with a tfr of 6 and predicted to go to a pop of almost 1 billion in this century.are you talking about the nigeria where economy does not keep up with population growth and hence their poverty % has increased and also became the country with the highest no of poor people.
 

KurtisBrian

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Iran tossed India because China provided them a better deal than India just as Sheikhs or Arab sided with India because its presence in IOR. India is a secular regime, China is an antireligious country which is exceptionally antipathic towards Islam. They are being used to balance American influence.

There are really few states (mostly failed or in process in becoming so) and even they bend their preferences because of interests.

Religion doesn't play an significant role in international politics, at least not as a force for a century.

Definition of religion in India and west aren't even same. In India, not belief system but Dharma (way of life and law of universe) is the term. Many Indian religions either don't have God or disregard theism/atheism.

Nigeria's per capita and median wealth is just a fraction of India. It's population growth is way way higher than it's GDP growth.

It's industries are weaker and decades backward even poor countries like Bangladesh. It's GDP per capita is super fluctuating and depends upon prices of oil solely. 50% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty (3% of Indians and 1% of Pakistanis), 90% below what Indian middle class earns.

The external GDP generated by foreign refineries in Nigeria doesn't reflect country's economic landscape. It's citizens are among poorest in world, even worse than Afghanistan and Somalia.
You are thinking like a greedy peasant/merchant or lifeless robot.
You have confused Nigeria with Nigerians. Nigeria IS the owner, the gov't, wealth, resources and money that is within that nation. (it is part of why I mentioned flags, colors of a Lord.)
Poor citizens = cheap labor force, plenty of soldiers willing to die, migrants willing to invade... . Worked for Japan, SK, the USA, UK.... in the past. Works for China, India and others today. Exploding population ... HUGE numbers of people wanting homes and jobs or war and conquest. Every heard of the US baby boom and matching massive economic expansion? Now go take a look at how China's HUGE labor force growth matches China's massive economic expansion.

I will look at what has happened and is happening in India to decide the impact of the kinds of religions India has. The realities of what Hindu Orange men and black rock worshiping Muslims do and how they get along.

You think religion doesn't play a role? Religion IS the people. Even those RED and WHITE wearing religion hating Templars ARE part of religion. Those treacherous greedy funny hat wearing Masonics and Shriners ARE part of religion. IT IS WHAT THEY ARE. People get sick, stupid or fat because they allow in people who are NOT like themselves. Stupid evil men blaming women. Not the fault of women. The fault lays with stupid evil men who migrate or give entry to those not like themselves.
God separated the Tribes.
 

KurtisBrian

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are you talking about the same nigeria that is growing its population with a tfr of 6 and predicted to go to a pop of almost 1 billion in this century.are you talking about the nigeria where economy does not keep up with population growth and hence their poverty % has increased and also became the country with the highest no of poor people.
I am speaking of NIGERIA the NATION. Not how easy the lives of the peasants/merchants/robots are.
 
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You are thinking like a greedy peasant/merchant or lifeless robot.
I didn't ask for your opinion about me but that's ok. I prefer facts and figures anyway and disregard these little medieval European poems which don't amount to anything.
You have confused Nigeria with Nigerians. Nigeria IS the owner, the gov't, wealth, resources and money that is within that nation.
I haven't, I just went to further details to cover aspects. I already had told you that Nigeria's wealth per head is less one third of India and even India is regarded as a poor country. That was enough indicate what Nigeria is then anyway.
You have confused Nigeria with Nigerians. Nigeria IS the owner, the gov't, wealth, resources and money that is within that nation (it is part of why I mentioned flags, colors of a Lord.)
Poor citizens = cheap labor force, plenty of soldiers willing to die, migrants willing to invade... . Worked for Japan, SK, the USA, UK.... in the past. Works for China, India and others today. Exploding population ... HUGE numbers of people wanting homes and jobs or war and conquest. Every heard of the US baby boom and matching massive economic expansion? Now go take a look at how China's HUGE labor force growth matches China's massive economic expansion.
Even state wealth of Nigeria is among lowest in world in terms of per head and over that Nigerian wealth isn't the state wealth of Nigeria as I told before. It's an illusion which goes up and down with oil prices while Nigerian society itself has remained static without much progress which implies how worthy this wealth is. Even when GDP per head of Indians was one third of Nigeria, even those days Indians ran a successfully stable democracy, tested nuclear weapons, were building ballistic missiles, sent rockets into space and were researching on various military and civilian technologies what you can see in India today.
Nigeria's people aren't labour force. It's median age is just 18 years unlike India's 28 years and China's 38 years. They are kids simply. Nor Nigeria ever had an industrial base to realise any labor force. Further, Chinese, Japanese and Indian migrants went around the world, learnt things from west, took their high-profile jobs themselves and replicated technology and development models in their own countries. Nigerians immigrants meanwhile are famous some other kind of activities I don't need to talk about.

Nigerians weren't having anything like India's urban or even rural lifestyle and education like thing. Neither when Indians were poor and Nigeria was lower middle, neither when Indians matched Nigeria, neither when India surpassed Nigeria and nor in next 10 years when India's perBnonsense that wgukeod would be 2 or 3 times of Nigeria.
Even Afghanistan has $4 trillion resources in its grounds but what Afghanistan is? Nigeria is basically an expanding population bomb, not a wealth making economy. At least for few more decades given what the situation.
In any regard, a sinking ship like Pakistan would be better than Nigeria. Since it's a ship whar Nigeria isn't. Nigeria is just like Niger, Burundi or Afghanistan which got more money than them because of oil and not function.
I will look at what has happened and is happening in India to decide the impact of the kinds of religions India has. The realities of what Hindu Orange men and black rock worshiping Muslims do and how they get along.
How stupid are you? Orange men include God believing and non believing Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists and many other Hindu sects while Islam, Christianity, Zoroastrianism and Judaism etc. are foreign religions.
Islam and Christianity are intolerant towards people who don't subscribe to their beliefs and hence there is conflict between them and Indian religions.
Indian religions don't have any problem with each other.

And your claim remains nonsense that religion has any impact on policies of major countries. India disregards only another extant Hindu state Nepal while middle east's Turks, Iranians and Arabs have all divergent political directions.
The countries which subscribe to religion vis a vis their diplomacy (like Pakistan) are anyway failed or insignificant states mostly who don't matter in international politics at first place. This episode is stupid anyway.
Repeating same again;
I am speaking of NIGERIA the NATION. Not how easy the lives of the peasants/merchants/robots are.
As a nation, Nigeria neither has significant wealth nor it functions like a nation. This country isn't a result of some social movement anyway, it's just a post-colonial state without motivation. Basically a failed state and not nation.
 

KurtisBrian

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I didn't ask for your opinion about me but that's ok. I prefer facts and figures anyway and disregard these little medieval European poems which don't amount to anything.

I haven't, I just went to further details to cover aspects. I already had told you that Nigeria's wealth per head is less one third of India and even India is regarded as a poor country. That was enough indicate what Nigeria is then anyway.

Even state wealth of Nigeria is among lowest in world in terms of per head and over that Nigerian wealth isn't the state wealth of Nigeria as I told before. It's an illusion which goes up and down with oil prices while Nigerian society itself has remained static without much progress which implies how worthy this wealth is. Even when GDP per head of Indians was one third of Nigeria, even those days Indians ran a successfully stable democracy, tested nuclear weapons, were building ballistic missiles, sent rockets into space and were researching on various military and civilian technologies what you can see in India today.
Nigeria's people aren't labour force. It's median age is just 18 years unlike India's 28 years and China's 38 years. They are kids simply. Nor Nigeria ever had an industrial base to realise any labor force. Further, Chinese, Japanese and Indian migrants went around the world, learnt things from west, took their high-profile jobs themselves and replicated technology and development models in their own countries. Nigerians immigrants meanwhile are famous some other kind of activities I don't need to talk about.

Nigerians weren't having anything like India's urban or even rural lifestyle and education like thing. Neither when Indians were poor and Nigeria was lower middle, neither when Indians matched Nigeria, neither when India surpassed Nigeria and nor in next 10 years when India's perBnonsense that wgukeod would be 2 or 3 times of Nigeria.
Even Afghanistan has $4 trillion resources in its grounds but what Afghanistan is? Nigeria is basically an expanding population bomb, not a wealth making economy. At least for few more decades given what the situation.
In any regard, a sinking ship like Pakistan would be better than Nigeria. Since it's a ship whar Nigeria isn't. Nigeria is just like Niger, Burundi or Afghanistan which got more money than them because of oil and not function.

How stupid are you? Orange men include God believing and non believing Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists and many other Hindu sects while Islam, Christianity, Zoroastrianism and Judaism etc. are foreign religions.
Islam and Christianity are intolerant towards people who don't subscribe to their beliefs and hence there is conflict between them and Indian religions.
Indian religions don't have any problem with each other.

And your claim remains nonsense that religion has any impact on policies of major countries. India disregards only another extant Hindu state Nepal while middle east's Turks, Iranians and Arabs have all divergent political directions.
The countries which subscribe to religion vis a vis their diplomacy (like Pakistan) are anyway failed or insignificant states mostly who don't matter in international politics at first place. This episode is stupid anyway.
Repeating same again;

As a nation, Nigeria neither has significant wealth nor it functions like a nation. This country isn't a result of some social movement anyway, it's just a post-colonial state without motivation. Basically a failed state and not nation.
I didn't give an opinion about you. I just said you were THINKING a certain way. The way you were thinking has nothing to do with who you are.
I will repeat...Nigeria has no external debt and very little gov't debt. India owes $550+ billion USD external. Federal gov't debt is 100+ lakh crore?, what is that 100+ trillion rupees? (supposedly "rich" USA owes far more). Taking taking taking....like Rome or Ra's Egypt did. Nigerians didn't do that. They can still load up on debt, if they want and buy pretty much anything. Or not and watch every nation either collapse or hyperinflate to ruin. Afterwards, Africans will probably come looking for the people who took took took and ruined the world. Something similar happened in Ancient Egypt.
Nigerian flag color Green, Pakistani flag color Green
Irish Rovers song, Orange and the Green. "That awful color problem of the Orange and the Green." Orange and Green don't get along.
Blue and Red don't get along. Blue and Green CAN get along.
Judging by China's dislike of India, Red and Orange will NOT be getting along.
What are Santa's elves dressed in? Red and Green. Hmmm so maybe Red and Green will get along if Santa tells them to but still no Orange in the mix.

How stupid am I? Well most Indians, Arabs, Israelis, Pakistanis, Americans, Canadians, British, Aussies online don't much like what I have to say. Don't usually agree with me. So either I am stupid and wrong or all of them are. Odds would be on me being VERY VERY stupid. 🙂

Have a nice day.
 

Lonewolf

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I didn't give an opinion about you. I just said you were THINKING a certain way. The way you were thinking has nothing to do with who you are.
I will repeat...Nigeria has no external debt and very little gov't debt. India owes $550+ billion USD external. Federal gov't debt is 100+ lakh crore?, what is that 100+ trillion rupees? (supposedly "rich" USA owes far more). Taking taking taking....like Rome or Ra's Egypt did. Nigerians didn't do that. They can still load up on debt, if they want and buy pretty much anything. Or not and watch every nation either collapse or hyperinflate to ruin. Afterwards, Africans will probably come looking for the people who took took took and ruined the world. Something similar happened in Ancient Egypt.
Nigerian flag color Green, Pakistani flag color Green
Irish Rovers song, Orange and the Green. "That awful color problem of the Orange and the Green." Orange and Green don't get along.
Blue and Red don't get along. Blue and Green CAN get along.
Judging by China's dislike of India, Red and Orange will NOT be getting along.
What are Santa's elves dressed in? Red and Green. Hmmm so maybe Red and Green will get along if Santa tells them to but still no Orange in the mix.

How stupid am I? Well most Indians, Arabs, Israelis, Pakistanis, Americans, Canadians, British, Aussies online don't much like what I have to say. Don't usually agree with me. So either I am stupid and wrong or all of them are. Odds would be on me being VERY VERY stupid. 🙂

Have a nice day.
Either you are into something poetic or some conspiracy theorist , okay what colour is ireland flag and what are it's relationship with india , sometimes you say things which are quite wierd and childish , you started sensible but what you are saying now need to be elaborated with scientific fact , wheter colour of flag affect ideology of leaders or not
 

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