- Nov 16, 2009
I do not think he'll go for total insulation of Chinese from participation in US market or other way around. There is too much financial exposure. He knows how to keep market in right humor. Happy street might as well become responsible for his re-election. It would be more of this vs that deal handed out to other western states & market participants. American/European giants do absolutely need that sweet disposable income of Chinese middle/upper-middle class. Anyone preventing that will find it extremely difficult to maintain support.If he manages to cut Chinese access to the Western or even American market, there will be trouble for China. This is exactly what he is doing right now (although with the sophistication of a drunk elephant). He is targetting Chinese students in Western Universities and tracking research funding as well. Nothing he has done has been benefitial to China, he gave up on improving relations after the NoKo debacle, imo.
NATO is going to come out stronger from this, with most European nations increasing defense spending and with UK out, they have to spend more on defense as well, since there is no EU to count on anymore.
US withdrawal from WHO was a given, considerng the lack of transparency shown by them. And US does not benefit from WHO at all (unlike India and other poor countries). It was a money sink for them, and considering they lost influence there despite being the largest donor, they were bound to be pissed.
His Climate Change denial is something that works in China's favor 100% though. Cutting subsidies to clean energy companies while increasing fracking and oil production might have boosted the economy in the short term, but in the long run it will hurt America when all research and manufacturing for solar and batteries will move to China.
China is playing it wisely, I think. They are targeting Trump's political allies and not the US in general. This shows that his policies have hurt them a bit and they are not ready to antagonize America completely as of yet and hope for some reconciliation as if/when the government changes.
Btw, China took the most advantage of these organizations which gave it access to the world market while it closed of its own. An insular west will not help it, at all.
His rhetoric follows the street sentiments. All the hype of upcoming strong action in last couple of days was done at the onset of markets getting comfortable. Trump gets cover from stock market like none of the US prez in recent history. And he uses it well cleverly, stepped up the rhetoric & attacked China but shied away from actionable sanctions or tarrifs. Investors are ogling at the prospects of entry point as index consolidates, thanks to Trump. He needs China as partner and as a villain. Its brilliant. I remember someone had even mapped, occurrence of news stories with phrases "US-China" against S&P performance. And no surprises, they follow same pattern.
China doesn't mind it either. They seem to have got around knowing that its a rhetoric & posturing, necessary for political support; and his confrontational approach is passed off as a sign of strong leader to domestic audience. Because behind all that talk, Trump doesn't really care about human rights; let alone HK/Taiwan. And China knows it well. They understand Trump is a business-minded president, so despite their protest on midnight tweets or rants on animals in US administration; they'd rather cut a deal and move on. Its just less work and that probably makes them prefer Trump to any other candidate.