Year 2035: Some possible scenarios

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

The next 20 years seem to store a lot of action for the world affairs. I was trying to look at the worst possible scenario for the world. I am trying to summarize the few possible outcomes. Here is the complete situation.

1. PRC will be caught between three scenarios. The citizens are becoming more assertive about their rights-political being the most critical one. We have seen the fall of USSR when they tried to open up their political process. Although China has not repeated their mistake of opening the economy later but relinquishing power takes a lot of effort. So, China may be caught in a civil war. To avoid the situation, the best way out for the Communist Party is to feed propaganda to the public and start asserting themselves militarily in the world. So, we have three situations for China-----an internal civil war or international military expeditions or peaceful transition to democracy.

2. India--the shift of power to states continues which stalls economic reforms and India falls back to the Hindu rate of growth. The Maoists start asserting themselves more with dwindling economic scenario. The rise in Muslim population fractures the political arena and we see the rise of one political party with Muslim identity(competition among many parties would weaken the Muslim cause). This can sow the seeds for next partition and increased communal enmity. Or, India continue on its economic growth trajectory without any hiccups.

3. Pakistan--breaks up or survives by starting another limited time war with India.

4. Europe--will they stick together to check the growth of new assertive Asia or some economic crisis with break this coalition? The first scenario implies that nations would accept the hegemony of Paris and Berlin and will see more fiscal consolidation of the ECB. In case of break-up they would lose all the power that consolidation could bring to the negotiation table in the world affairs.

5. USA--the wars and financial crisis has already thrown it on a downward trajectory. In case PRC assets itself militarily would US stay away or jump in and kill the economic collaboration built over the years? Under decreased influence it would be interesting to see if US would again start reintegrating itself with a factional/integrated Europe or India.

Please feel free to add analysis about other parts of the world and try to make a picture of the world 20 years from now.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Maybe my thinking is too superficial, but your post puts me in mind of a world moving towards 3 superstates: Oceana, Eurasia, and Eastasia.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Maybe my thinking is too superficial, but your post puts me in mind of a world moving towards 3 superstates: Oceana, Eurasia, and Eastasia.

You have got it right. But the question is how the internal conflicts play out in the development of this new polarity?

 

[devgupt]

Maybe my thinking is too superficial, but your post puts me in mind of a world moving towards 3 superstates: Oceana, Eurasia, and Eastasia.

Your post reminds me of 1984

 

[KS]

I will be a daddy with two or three kids....

 

[civfanatic]

The world will move from a unipolar to a multipolar one. America will remain the dominant superpower until 2050+, but its relative "share" of global power and influence will steadily decline as China, India, and Brazil continue to develop and become new geopolitical cores.

 

[balai_c]

Let me jump-start the crystal ball. There will also be an unprecedented surge in industrialization across the Entire Planet, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. I have observed a notable drop in civil wars throughout the entire continent (other than persistent hotspots like Somalia, Sierra Leone). This oasis of peace might let people in countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, Zaire, a rare opportunity to develop their countries and finally usher an era of industrial revolution to their people that was long denied by erstwhile colonial powers. This will let them finally let them use their natural resources that had ravaged the continent through out the 19th and 20th centuary and remove the effects of the resource curse.

This centuary will be one of equality. With the inevitable re-balancing of economic and strategic calculus through out the planet, literacy rates and health indicators might also see a massive rise in every corners of the globe. With multiple power centres co-existing side by side, global wars like the two world wars would become increasingly unsustainable (partly because of the non-availability of resource rich colonies), and also development of the domestic economies of the erstwhile providers of raw materials (nations like India , and regions like sub Saharan Africa).

India and also China will witness the rise of massive naval power , henceforth unprecedented in the history of the respective countries. For India that would since the Chola-chalukya maritime empire, and for the Chinese,since the legendary General Zheng He. These would greatly reduce their vulnerability of the maritime trade they experienced since the past 5 centuaries. We are indeed in very interesting times.

Anyway, this is my first jump in the flight of fancy. Do not hesitate to poke around if anything seems too fantastic. I am more than happy to correct myself!

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Your post reminds me of 1984

Exactly what I had in mind...

 

[KS]

1. PRC will be caught between three scenarios. The citizens are becoming more assertive about their rights-political being the most critical one. We have seen the fall of USSR when they tried to open up their political process. Although China has not repeated their mistake of opening the economy later but relinquishing power takes a lot of effort. So, China may be caught in a civil war. To avoid the situation, the best way out for the Communist Party is to feed propaganda to the public and start asserting themselves militarily in the world. So, we have three situations for China-----an internal civil war or international military expeditions or peaceful transition to democracy.

It will neither be a completely peaceful transition nor a serious civil war. It will be something inbetween. A low boiling situation but which is kept in control by the Han nationalism and ultimately transforms to a functioning democracy.

2. India--the shift of power to states continues which stalls economic reforms and India falls back to the Hindu rate of growth. The Maoists start asserting themselves more with dwindling economic scenario. The rise in Muslim population fractures the political arena and we see the rise of one political party with Muslim identity(competition among many parties would weaken the Muslim cause). This can sow the seeds for next partition and increased communal enmity. Or, India continue on its economic growth trajectory without any hiccups.

Prediction for India is quite complex because of the absence of one all pervading homogeneity unlike ethnicity in case of China. Maoists will simply loose the war of attrition. Regarding religion - the most difficult to predict ..either people continue the uneasy calm that is prevailing now and contribute in their own way to the nation or the differences boil over [worst case scenario] and we see full blown issues
between Hindus and Muslims. It also depends on what type of leadership the Muslim community chooses for itself in the near future.

Regarding economy it will continue to grow not as vigorously as we expect it to be ..nor will fall to the Hindu rate of growth.

3. Pakistan--breaks up or survives by starting another limited time war with India.

It all depends on how the WoT goes. Impossible to predict.

4. Europe--will they stick together to check the growth of new assertive Asia or some economic crisis with break this coalition? The first scenario implies that nations would accept the hegemony of Paris and Berlin and will see more fiscal consolidation of the ECB. In case of break-up they would lose all the power that consolidation could bring to the negotiation table in the world affairs.

EU breaks up because the traditional engines of euro growth - France, Germany etc refuse to continue bailing out the faltering economies and share their burden. Though there is a chance that the EU just shrinks in size to its core - the West European nations.
USA continues to be the Godfather of Europe.

5. USA--the wars and financial crisis has already thrown it on a downward trajectory. In case PRC assets itself militarily would US stay away or jump in and kill the economic collaboration built over the years? Under decreased influence it would be interesting to see if US would again start reintegrating itself with a factional/integrated Europe or India.

Europe-US co-operation would continue under the aegis of NATO because of the shared civilization and the perceived threat from Islam. US continues to decrease in its power for some time to come until it stabilizes itself. It will still be the strongest power in the world for some time to come, but it would have already peaked and could get only weaker.

US - PRC relations would still be the most important for another decade and half to come and China would assume the role of the Soviet Union as the main competitor/rival of US.

 

[balai_c]

Post 2035, the most interesting for India would be near universal literacy, something that would have a cataclysmic effect on the health of democracy of the country. With a near completely literate country, politicians will have a really hard time continuing with the typical vote bank democracy. Rising levels of affluence with create steadfast decimation of block voting culture, something all political parties treasure.

 

[KS]

Post 2035, the most interesting for India would be near universal literacy, something that would have a cataclysmic effect on the health of democracy of the country. With a near completely literate country, politicians will have a really hard time continuing with the typical vote bank democracy. Rising levels of affluence with create steadfast decimation of block voting culture, something all political parties treasure.

As we have seen, education has minimal influence on voting patterns..Atleast that is what I believe.

 

[ejazr]

2. India--the shift of power to states continues which stalls economic reforms and India falls back to the Hindu rate of growth. The Maoists start asserting themselves more with dwindling economic scenario. The rise in Muslim population fractures the political arena and we see the rise of one political party with Muslim identity(competition among many parties would weaken the Muslim cause). This can sow the seeds for next partition and increased communal enmity. Or, India continue on its economic growth trajectory without any hiccups.

In 2035, Indian Muslims will be around 14-15% of the population. According to the 2001 census, it was around 13.4%

If there hasn't been any "one political party with Muslim identity" till now despite the fact that there are plenty of "Muslim parties", it is because, the average Indian Muslim has preferred to vote for a secular all inclusive party rather than vote on the basis of identiy politics alone like we have seen with the emergence of Dalit party outfits.

What the political scenario would emphasise is that the weakest socio-economic groups in India today are the Tribals, Muslims and Dalits and by 2035, a concerted effort to tackle and improve the socio-economic indicators in these three groups is necessary for India as a whole to develop and become a great power and harness the HR resources of our nation. Not tackling the socio-economic indicators of these groups would mean that there will be increasing internal conflicts and violence because of lack of development and oppurutnies. The Naxal violence in the tribal areas which is the single most threatening conflict for Indian's internal security is a prime example of how not improving the Tribal socio-economic indicators can damage India internally.

And partition by Muslims is the least likely thing to happen. The Indian Muslims are the one who suffered the most because of the partition despite the fact that they beneficiaries were either the Muslims who lived in Pakistan or the Hindus in India. The partition would have been impossible to action without the massive support of the British bureacracy and effort put in to make it happen to secure her strategic interests in this region. Remember that almost all Islamic religious scholars had actually OPPOSED the parition on the basis of religion because according to them it was UnIslamic. And the same reason why Indian Islamic religious scholars today have opposed the indepedance of Kashmir on the basis of religion and affirmed that Kashmir is part of India.
(Deoband fatwa ruffles feathers of Kashmiri separatists)

 

[KS]

In 2035, Indian Muslims will be around 14-15% of the population. According to the 2001 census, it was around 13.4%

Unofficial estimates already put India's Muslim count at about 14%.

If there hasn't been any "one political party with Muslim identity" till now despite the fact that there are plenty of "Muslim parties", it is because, the average Indian Muslim has preferred to vote for a secular all inclusive party rather than vote on the basis of identiy politics alone like we have seen with the emergence of Dalit party outfits.

IUML, MIM are parties with explicit Muslim identity.

Remember that almost all Islamic religious scholars had actually OPPOSED the parition on the basis of religion because according to them it was UnIslamic. And the same reason why Indian Islamic religious scholars today have opposed the indepedance of Kashmir on the basis of religion and affirmed that Kashmir is part of India.

The reason why Deoband opposed the partition of India is debatable to say the least.

 

[Mad Indian]

states have nothing to do with reforms. take Gujarati or Tamil Nadu. the problem is not the regional parties but the incompetent national ones. so don't blame the incompetence of these shit heads on the regional party. India can and Will grow much faster than its present rate and above the predictions and that too faster than the predictions. only thing stopping India is our corruption and bureaucracy. we need reforms there and for that we need to vote like Homo sapiens and not like monkeys with a vote.:thumb:

 

[Tianshan]

Maybe my thinking is too superficial, but your post puts me in mind of a world moving towards 3 superstates: Oceana, Eurasia, and Eastasia.

the official ideology of the "Eastasia" superstate in 1984 is called "death worship".

interesting, no?

 

[aerokan]

Let me make some super high probability predictions too.

1. Fall of Euro is imminent.
2. Considerable no. of the islamic nations will band together in future.
3. Outcome of the coming 2012 US elections will set the path and the timing for one of the major wars pre-WW3
4. China will survive despite downs till the middle of the century.
5. Dollar will lose shine and brings US decline.

One event which is of major concern within a decade is the occurance of double dip recession ensuring a major war.

Groups like anonymous will make one mistake which will become the reason for some lost lives. Govt's will use this as an excuse to snatch away the liberties of people.

 

[civfanatic]

Let me make some super high probability predictions too.

3. Outcome of the coming 2012 US elections will set the path and the timing for one of the major wars pre-WW3

Can you elaborate on this point a bit more?

 

[Illusive]

1- I'd more interested on things happening in the Arctic Circle and possible competition for rights to own the resource rich region as soon as the Ice cap melts.

2- A resurgent Russia will mean US focus will be limited to single region, which means India and China gets more assertive in their backyard i.e IOR & SCS respectively.

3- If above 2 scenarios happen, that means China can use this opportunity to do some adventurous stuff in SCS and Taiwan.

4- Influence of Europe will dwindle and a new Space race will be in progress between the economic powerhouses to establish and gain access to resource rich asteroids and our moon.

5- Technology will significantly improve.

 

[ejazr]

I think the main gotchas till 2035 atleast for India are:
(1) How will Afghanistan turnout? If all goes well, Afghanistan after 20 years of foreign support and backing for its military should become stable and a strong ally of India and the US. It will also directly weaken Pakistan's influence in the region particularly in its tribal areas and Balochistan assuming Pakistan is unable to handle its economic crisis very well

(2)How will Myanmar turnout? Myanmar is now slowly returning to democracy and opening up for investments as sanctions are withdrawn. This can power the entire East-India-BD-ASEAN connectivity that can create a huge oppurtunity for India

(3) How India maintains control of the Indian Ocean Rim? The IN has started one of its biggest expansion in history and this will continue going on atleast till 2017. By 2035, IN should be the preponderent power in the Indian Ocean Rim region with most of the rim countries working with India on any naval/security requirement of any kind. This is from the Persian gul and horn of Africa to all the way to Straits of Malacca. This also means working with the US Naval forces so that they willingly delegate responsibilities to the IN and focus on the Pacific Ocean region. At the same time limiting Chinese naval expansion into the Indian Ocean region as well by IN becoming the net provider of security in the region.


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Unofficial estimates already put India's Muslim count at about 14%.

2001 census was 13.4% So 2011 could be 14% although we still don't have these data officially. Even assuming the same rate of increase (in reality this is a decreasing trend) It would be around 15.2% in 2030s.

IUML, MIM are parties with explicit Muslim identity.

And how many Lok Sabha seats do they have? Around 2-3 out of around 550. Compare this to say Shiv Sena and how many Lok Sabha seats they have? Or compared to Dalit identity parties like the BSP? The vast majority of Muslims realise that it will be counter productive for them. Its not that there are no parties around an explicit Muslim idenntiy. Every election including the recent state elections in UP there were atleast 5-10 parties with the word Islam or Muslim in their name and still they didn't get a single seat. That is what my point was.

The reason why Deoband opposed the partition of India is debatable to say the least.

I have already mentioned the reason and this is what they have written about and talked about privately and publicly. That partition or creation of a country on the basis of religion was UnIslamic accoding to them. In simple terms, the political Islamic ideology is basically not supported in traditional Islam and the idea of creating a country or borders on the basis of Islam is anti-thetical to Islam. Islam is a universal religion and not a political idea that is confined within national borders. And it was not just Deoband, there were many other Islamic scholars from various schools of thought who said the same thing pre-1947. Not to mention Jinnah who did advocate this himself was hardly a practiving Muslim who had any knowledge of Islam. He enjoyed his glass of wine and pork sandwiches while at the same time arranging a sumptous lunch for the Viceroy of India in 1947 during the month of Ramazan when Muslims fasts throughout the day.


In any case, my main point was that the idea of another partition is just impractical given that Indian Muslims were the once who suffered the most out of the entire deal. The other point was that there is no foreign power like the UK who was present and muscled the partiion plan into place. Without their support, it would have been impossible for this to happen.

 

[aerokan]

Can you elaborate on this point a bit more?

2012 US elections has two outcomes. One option is the Obamney status quo and the other is ron paul revolution. First option will guarentee the downfall of US faster because of the war mongering(common to both Obama and Romney) and socialist policies which will gaurentee the bankruptcy of US in the lines of USSR. Considering that US dollar is a reserve currency, it will have pretty major impact on the rest of the world. Other option is Ron Paul who will pull out American wasteful investment in the bases in rest of the world. If he comes, most probably he will be assasinated like the three other US presidents who tried to bring dollar under the control of the govt. If he brings the troops back, rougue countries like china will be emboldened to bully and occupy on other countries. Ofcourse US can always go to war by declaring war under his rule.

If Ron Paul comes, Euro will fall first. Else dollar stands the same risk. As observed from history, all the economic depressions were followed by major wars in around a time frame of a decade. Economic depressions bring wars and changes to the world.. not the other way round. 1929 led to WW1. Recent 2008 depression brought regime changes to many of the middle east regimes which were supposed to be unchangeable. The bigger the depression, the bigger the following war. Double dip will seal the deal for the future. The super fast pace of technological progress indicates that the observations are matching with the patterns. WW3 (in my wild guess it is around 2050-60) will ensure a long term peace afterward (reversal of downward trend of the super cycle). Whether we become a super space faring civilization or going back thousands of years back (like after Mahabharata war) will be decided by the actions in WW3.